Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July extends this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.43. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.38. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 68.85. Second support is last July's low crossing at 66.11.

Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends today's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.855 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.212 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.140. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.212. First support is today's low crossing at 3.986. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday ending a three-day correction off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 85.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.60.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1211.60 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1196.70. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1211.60. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1166.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral and some more consolidations might be seen and rise to 38.2% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 72.99 cannot be ruled out. However, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 64.24 will target 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18

In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Phil Flynn: Oil Fundamentally Speaking

Don’t you hate it when the fundamentals get in the way of a great bullish trade? Yes, you do unless you are bearish. Oil traders and the world continue to get a reality check as global markets are crumbling and teetering on the edge of oblivion. There is great loss of confidence in Europe as the true nature of the ills that still plague the global economy are unmasked. We live in a world of printed money, piles of debt and countries that hide the true nature of their debt.

The fundamentals of supply and diminishing demand has taken over crude oil as opposed to the fundamentals of economic illusions along with global markets that are crashing down.Oil got crushed into expiration, dropping to a low into the $64 a barrel handle before coming back on rumors of euro currency intervention. Yet the Wall Street Journal says that, “the sharp rally in the euro against the Swiss franc in Asian trading Friday was most likely due to large scale covering of short positions and profit taking rather than intervention from the Swiss or other central banks.” Yet many floor traders in Chicago disagreed.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Declines on Concern Debt Crisis to Stall Recovery

Crude oil fell as European governments struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis, raising concern that it will slow the global economic recovery. Futures dropped as much as 2.5 percent as European Union finance ministers plan to meet today in Brussels to discuss sovereign debt. U.S. petroleum inventories climbed to the highest level in at least 20 years for the middle of May.

“The worry is that the European economy is going to drag the global economy into another recession,” Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, said in an interview. “Because 2008 is so fresh in everybody’s mind, everyone I talk to is just petrified.” Crude oil for July delivery dropped 78 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $70.02 a barrel at 10:35 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The July contract has dropped for nine consecutive days, losing 13 percent since May 10. Prices are down 7.2 percent this week.

Oil prices plummeted almost $115 a barrel between July and December 2008. Supplies of oil and all petroleum based fuels jumped to 1.81 billion barrels in the week ended May 14, the highest stockpiles on a seasonal basis in Energy Department data through 1990. High inventories have driven down the profit margin from refining crude into gasoline and heating oil from a 15 month high. The crack spread for July has dropped 14 percent this week, based on Nymex futures prices.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning

Short term outlook in crude oil remains bearish as long as 71.43 and another fall is still in favor. Sustained trading below 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 66.54 will target 60 psychological level, which is close to 50% retracement at 60.18. On the upside, though, note that break of 71.43 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall fro 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extended this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's decline, last May's low crossing at 59.43 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 72.73. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.98. First support is today's low crossing at 64.24. Second support is last May's low crossing at 59.43.

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.173. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, this month's low crossing at 3.855 is the next downside target. If June renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.678 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.494. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.678. First support is today's low crossing at 4.040. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this year's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.16 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 87.63. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.16.

Gold closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1193.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1156.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1214.90 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1214.90. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1175.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1156.20.


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Phil Flynn: Expiration Aberration

Oil prices bucked the deflationary commodity trend with a late session turnaround as traders moved to cover positions the day before the June futures contract expiration. Some traders credited the turnaround in the market to what seemed to be an increasingly optimistic Federal Reserve that raised their economic growth expectations in the release of its Fed Minutes. The Fed said in the Minutes from the FOMC meeting last April that GDP growth would range to 3.2% to 3.7% which was up from a previous forecast range of 2.8% -3.5%. The Fed also lowered its forecast for unemployment from a range of 9.5%-9.7% to a range of 9.1%-9.5%.

Of course one has to remember that these forecasts were made before the depth and gravity of the European financial crisis was clear to the market. Oh sure, the Fed did mention that the Greece crisis could impair US Markets but I do not think that they realized how bad the situation was at that time.If the turnaround in oil was all about growth expectations then why did we not see more confidence in buying some of the other commodities? Unless of course you assume that oil is going to be a leading indicator of economic growth. And the other reason we saw a snap back was due to the fact that oil is over sold.....Read the entire article.

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Don't be Surprised When One Euro Equals One Dollar... It Could Happen

As everyone in the Western World knows, Europe has been having its share of major problems. All of Europe’s trials and tribulations have had a dramatic affect on the performance of the euro, recently putting it under severe pressure.

Unlike the United States, where we can print money and inflate ourselves out of most problems, the Eurozone is accountable to the 16 nations who gave up their own currency to join.

In our latest video we'll explain how our "Trade Triangle" technology has been very accurate since the beginning of the year for the euro. Although we've nailed the market thus far, it leads to the big question: Have we seen the euro bottom out?

We hope our new video answers that question and highlights some of the reasons why we believe we could be seeing some strong opportunities in this market.

As always the new video is available for viewing now and there is no charge or registration requirement. Please feel free to leave a comment on this video and where you think the euro is headed.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Crude recovers mildly after dropping to as low as 67.90 and downside momentum is seen diminishing with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Nevertheless, another fall is still in favor with 72.52 minor support intact, towards 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 66.54 next. On the upside, though, note that break of 72.52 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed, possibly with convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, and bring stronger rebound.

In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. on the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall fro 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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