Dan Dicker: BP Stock Is Bad News

Dan Dicker, TSC senior contributor, says he got the BP stock call wrong and is looking for a micro rally to sell his shares. Follow Dan on Twitter at Dan_Dicker.



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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. Break of 71.23 minor support will indicate that rebound from 64.23 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish......Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Falls for Third Day on Concern Slower Growth to Cut Fuel Demand

Oil fell for a third day as Chinese equities dropped, highlighting concerns about flagging fuel demand in the world’s second largest crude user, and as the euro fell against the dollar, limiting the appeal of commodities. Oil gave up earlier gains as China’s Shanghai Composite Exchange slumped to a 13 month low on concerns about banks’ abilities to raise funds. The country’s manufacturing index yesterday showed less than expected growth. The euro declined for a second day following reports yesterday European unemployment reached a 12 year high in April.

“The market is very sensitive to any news right now,” said Clarence Chu, a trader at options dealer Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. “The dollar and euro exchange has been very volatile so that translates to the oil price. The soft euro will impact the dollar and that will hurt China’s export sector.” Crude oil for July delivery dropped 50 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $72.08 a barrel at 12:38 p.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have swung between gains of 0.5 percent and losses of as much as 1.1 percent today.

Yesterday, the contract lost $1.39, or 1.9 percent, to $72.58. Futures fell 14 percent in May. The euro retreated as much as 0.3 percent today after hitting a four year low of $1.2111 yesterday. It was at $1.2191 at 12:39 p.m. Singapore time.
China’s purchasing manager’s index declined to 53.9 in May from 55.7 in the previous month. It fell short of a median 54.5 estimate from 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A gauge of manufacturing in the 16 member euro region declined to 55.8 from 57.6 the previous month, London based Markit Economics said.....Read the entire article.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed down $1.51 at $72.46 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a corrective pullback from strong gains scored last week. Recent price action does suggest a market low is in place, or close to it, and that prices will now chop in a sideways trading range between last week's low of $67.15 and strong psychological resistance at $80.00.

Natural gas closed down 10.6 cents at $4.234 today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 20 points at 87.21 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold futures closed up $12.00 at $1,227.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two week high. Safe haven buying today boosted gold. The gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained some fresh upside momentum today. There are no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.



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European Crude Oil Supply Competition for Russia

Russia has been traditionally positioning itself as the prime source of hydrocarbon raw materials for Western Europe. However, European countries also have crude reserves, although they are not enough to cover the current level of oil consumption on the continent. Europe receives most of its oil from the North Sea, where Norway and Britain set their rules. The oil extracted in the North Sea - 100 million tons a year - is only enough for Norway (world’s third largest oil exporter) and Britain, which buys that oil. The level of oil extraction in the region has been decreasing recently, but oil companies continue to discover new small deposits of black gold in the North Sea.

Norway’s oil company Det norske has recently found one, The Norway Post wrote. The deposit has from seven to twelve million barrels. Nothing has been reported about the profitability of extraction in the new deposit. The North Sea still remains the territory of good perspectives, not to mention the Arctic region, which has not been explored yet. The largest oil wells on the British continental shelf in the Northern Sea are Leman-Bank, Brent, Markham and Buzzard. The proven reserves are evaluated at 3481 million tons. As for continental fields, the largest one is Wytch Farm – about 60 million tons of oil, Neftegaz.ru website said.

Britain ’s long time adversary in the field of oil mining, France, is no competition. However, France was the first nation to have applied the method of oil mining at Pechelbronn. France was also the first to start the industrial extraction of this fuel. Nowadays, France mines only 20,000 barrels of oil daily. This number pales in comparison with the nation’s needs of nearly 2 million barrels a day. The explored oil reserves in France are not that large either, 122 million tons.....Read the entire article.

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Phil Flynn: The Rain In Spain Helps Oil Go Down The Drain

Last week a downgrade in Spain’s credit rating helped sink oil. Overnight it was a report on Chinese manufacturing that did the deed. Last Friday, ahead of the holiday, Fitch downgraded Spain’s credit causing stocks and oil to tumble. That was only temporary because at the end of the day we all know that Europe doesn’t matter, it is all about China and China has decoupled from the rest of the globe. Well, not so fast. Overnight the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported that China's Purchasing Managers Index fell to 53.9 in May from 55.7 in April. That dip in Chinese manufacturing seems to suggest that perhaps China is getting impacted by the economic turmoil in Europe. China exporters count on Europe to buy their goods but it is possible that because of the turmoil it's happening at a slower pace.

Adding to the cracks in China’s unbreakable reputation is concerns rising surrounding their housing market. The Financial Times reports, “The problems in China's housing market are more severe that those in the US before the financial crisis because they combine a potential bubble with the risk of social discontent", according to Li Daokui, a professor and an adviser to the Chinese central bank. “The housing market problem in China is actually much, much more fundamental, much bigger than the housing market problem in the US and UK before your financial crisis," said Li Daokui, a member of the bank's monetary policy committee. "It is more than (just) a bubble problem”.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in Crude oil is turned neutral. Break of 71.23 minor support will indicate that rebound from 64.23 is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting this low first. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Rises on Outlook U.S. Economic Recovery Will Boost Fuel Demand

Crude oil rose above $75 a barrel in New York on speculation that economic growth in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, will sustain a global recovery in fuel demand. Oil climbed after Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said yesterday the U.S. economic recovery will continue amid uncertainties prompted by Europe’s debt crisis. About 28 million people were expected to be on road trips in the U.S. during the three-day Memorial Day weekend, a jump of 5.8 percent from a year earlier and the first increase since 2005, according to AAA, the country’s biggest motoring organization.

“There is more of an optimistic feel toward the economy starting to creep in, particularly in the U.S.,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “People are starting to buy up, or looking to buy, because some of these commodities are cheap. Summer drive time is always a key.”

Crude oil for July delivery gained as much as $1.20, or 1.6 percent, to $75.17 a barrel, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.44 at 11:29 a.m. Sydney time. The contract declined 58 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $73.97 on May 28. Futures dropped 13.6 percent in May, the biggest monthly drop since December 2008. Floor trading was closed Monday for the Memorial Day holiday in the U.S. and electronic trades will be booked with today’s for settlement purposes.....Read the entire article.

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Trend Trading Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and the SP500

Last week looked and felt like a pivotal week for both stocks and commodities. The past two weeks have had investors and traders in a panic as they try to find safe investments for their money. After watching and reviewing the panic selling in the market it looks as though the majority decided to sell everything and be in cash for the time being. This is bullish for the stock market.

I will admit it has been tougher to trade recently because of increased risk levels due to the large 2-4% sell offs and rallies happening within minutes… While this is amazing for disciplined and experienced traders who are able to pull the trigger getting in and out with quick profit in the matter of minutes, this same price action can blow up trading accounts of those who do not have a trading strategy, money management and the discipline to take profits and cut losses very quickly. The speed of the rallies and sell offs is the matter of being up or down thousand of dollars in the matter of 5-10 minutes… That is one of the reasons I have stepped back from being aggressive and into more of an observation mode playing with small amounts of money and focusing on the larger trends at.

My #1 goal is to make subscribers money with the least amount of risk and watching the market swing 2-4% in minutes makes it extremely difficult to get everyone in and out positions with a profit before the market changes directions. As much as I love trading, some times the best position is to have small ones or be in cash.

GLD – Gold ETF Trading

Here is my weekly updated chart of gold as it works its way through the correction from last year. The daily chart looks to be forming a larger Cup & Handle pattern which is extremely bullish. If this pattern does a text book move then we could see GLD reach $140 and spot gold would reach the $1400 area.

That being said this pattern still has to complete the handle portion which could easily last another 4 weeks, so I am not in a panic to add more to our position.

SLV – Silver ETF Trading

Silver is in much of the same situation. Because of the added volatility in silver the charts do not look quite the same but they are similar in many ways… Silver is used a lot for industrial purposes and because the economy which is very weak still (though it is getting better) we are not seeing silver demand rise much. If silver can break this large resistance level then we could see silver surge to $25 (25%) this year.

USO – Oil Fund Trading

USO (Oil) has held up really well in the past 12 months but the recent sell off has seriously damaged the bullish outlook I had not long ago. While it is oversold and looks to have started a bounce last week the chart is pointing to lower prices over the longer term… This USO fund does have contago which makes this fund under perform the actual price of oil. The current prices of oil are still trading at a key support level and could post nice bounce if not trigger a new rally. The problem with following some ETF’s which have contago is that you do not see the real price action of the commodity. But that is were I come in as I track the underlying commodity and relate it to ETFs for you.

SPY – SP500 ETF Trading

The Stock Market (SP500) sure has been a roller coaster. The chart below shows you what happened in January for the last correction and where we stand currently in comparison. If a setup is obvious in the financial market there is a very high chance it will not work out as planned and by knowing this it allows us to be cautious and take profits at key short term support and resistance levels.

Trend Trading Conclusion:

In short, I feel gold and silver will drift around to digest the recent move up and to form the handle portion. Oil looks to have put in a short term bottom and if we get a small pullback in the coming days to test the intraday chart breakout level and touch the support trend line we could look to take a position.

We tend to see the most price appreciation during the final stages of a trend and we could have seen that on the US Dollar over the past 6 weeks. It looks as though the dollar could have put in a double top. If the dollar rolls over it would help boost precious metals, oil and stocks… But we will not know it’s a top until there is a clear trend reversal which in any case will be weeks before that type of price action can unfold.

As for the SP500, we have seen the same level of selling as we did in Feb-March 2009. High volume panic selling has ruled the market since late April. There are equal arguments for saying the market has bottomed with all the panic selling and that we should start another large rally lasting 8-12 months or one could argue this is capitulation volume signaling massive distribution of shares and now every rally/bounce will be sold… Personally I am torn between the two… but lean more towards higher prices with a multi month grind up at slow rate…

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