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Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and renew the rally off May's low. If July renews the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target.
First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 76.30
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46
Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 74.23
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.61
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 69.51
Last week we saw the financial market including commodities move higher which was great to see. But the recent run up has brought both equities and commodities to their key resistance levels. With Gold, Oil and the SP500 trading near key resistance points we will most likely have some sharp movements this week so buckle up tight!
Gold – Daily Chart
Gold Future Prices continue to form the large cup and handle pattern and is trading near resistance. This week I figure we will see gold make a move up or break the dotted support trend line and drop towards the blue support level. I continue to wait for a low risk setup for gold.
Crude Oil – Daily Chart
Crude oil has been trending down for a couple months and recently rebounded to test its resistance level. It looks as though oil is forming a bear flag which generally means we should see lower prices in the near future. But another $1-2 move up could trigger a surge of buyers if this resistance level is broken which is why this week should be volatile… it’s a 50/50 chance for commodities to either rally or sell off.
SP500 – Daily Chart
The SP500 has posted some decent gains the past couple days but it’s still no in the clear just yet… Most technicians are looking for a move above 1100-1110 area with heavy volume before they start to commit serious money to the long side.
It looks and feels as though the market could drop or rally very sharply from here and if you are caught on the wrong side of the move then it’s going to really hurt the trading account. During times like this when the market is at a critical pivot point with increased volatility levels along with mixed market internals I tend to stay on the side lines until some dust settles.
Weekend Gold, Oil and SPX Trading Conclusion
In short, everything is trading near key pivot points giving mixed signals for prices to rally or drop. My analysis is pointing to a small move up Monday morning to break Fridays high followed by some selling late Monday or Tuesday. How much of a move down I don’t know for sure but there is potential for a 3-4% move. On the flip side if buyers step in pushing the price above 1100 then we could see a surge higher of 3-4%…
Very dicey times right now to be trying to pick a direction, which is why it’s best to wait for the risk level to diminish before getting involved or at least trade a small position with a protective stop if you feel confident in a direct.
Crude oil extended the consolidation from 64.24 and edged higher to 76.30 last week. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that price actions from 64.24 are merely consolidation to fall from 87.15. Hence, even though another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 69.51 will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.
In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
After hitting a high of 8715 on May the third and a low of 6424 on the flash crash low, oil has barreled back to near the $75.00 a barrel area and it appears the great retrace is on. Oil rallied on the illusion of economic stability and a strong euro only to have those daydreams be shattered in financial deception. The oil market has come to a major decision point and may be getting ready to get back into a bull market mode. Yet oil, like a lot of the major markets, are at key technical turning points and they had better make it now or we are going to break it.The markets are acting like the ghosts of May and the nightmare of Europe are behind us and the market is acting like they want to believe again in economic aplomb.
The strongest China exports in 6 years have traders forgetting about their hot inflation. They had good debt auctions across the euro zone and now the markets want to try and believe the crisis in Europe never even happened. And besides Jean Claude Trichet says the euro is a stable currency. Why didn’t he tell us that last week and save us all a whole lot of worry! Yet seeing is believing. The stock market and the oil markets have to follow through and the bonds are going to have to break to keep oil going. The question is: Do you believe?Well I know.....Read the entire article.
Where is USO headed? Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing an uptrend with some near term weakness. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term uptrend. Trade the uptrend with tight money management stops. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored +70 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):
+10......Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
+15......New 3 Day High on Thursday
+20......Last Price Above 20 Day Moving Average
+25......New 3 Week High, Week Ending June 12th
-30......New 3 Month Low in May
Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 69.51 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.
Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.635. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.444.
The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday due to short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.01. Second support is today's low crossing at 86.77.
Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday and closed above the 10 day moving average crossing at 1225.80. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.10. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.
The battle between the Bulls and Bears continues with very choppy trading action. The rally from a potential double bottom is cause for concern for the Bears, however the Bulls are in a similar situation as they have to prove their case with sustained market action.
In our new video, we outline some of the key levels that we think are important in the S&P 500 market. Volume continues to to be light and that is why the markets are moving around and are so volatile at the moment.
This is our first video this week, but expect many more as the market rotates. Don't miss our special risk free trial offer to MarketClub, my premium charting service, offered at the end of this video.
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and renew the rally off May's low.
If July renews the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.42.
Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.30.
Friday's pivot point is 75.17
First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51.
Second support is May's low crossing at 67.15.
As noted before, Crude oil's rebound from 64.24 is possibly still in progress and further rise might be seen. But after all, we're still expecting strong resistance at 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 to limit upside to conclude the correction. On the downside, below 69.51 minor support will argue that such recovery is finished and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 64.24 low first.
In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
