Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and U.S. Dollar Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.24 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.24. First support is today's low crossing at 71.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed steady on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.855 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.855. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.15 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 85.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.15. First support is today's low crossing at 84.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed lower on Tuesday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1233.70 would signal that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1231.00. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. First support is today's low crossing at 1189.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90.

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Phil Flynn: After The Fireworks

Now that the fireworks are over, the question becomes can oil rebound from the low seventies. The oil market is trying to get up off the mat after a very disappointing jobs report last week. So if the oil market comes back, does that mean the economy is not so bad? What does the government need to do to get the private sector moving again or maybe is it time that they get out of the way? Non farm payrolls fell by 125,000 as the census, the best job stimulus the government had going for it, cut 225,000 temporary workers.

Yet at the same time the jobless rate fell to 9.5 percent from 9.7 percent as the labor force shrank. This does not bode too well for oil from the demand side of the equation yet from the price side of the equation it is not too clear. The economy is still so weak that the Fed will keep their foot on the economic accelerator creating some demand for oil but even more a weak dollar thereby keeping oil bulls from getting totally annihilated.It appears that this anemic job growth is making the dollar look like it is running out of steam. It has been dollar strength that has pulled oil back down into the low seventies from the mid-eighties.

Now it appears that because our job situation is so bleak not even the bad news in Europe can keep us supported.What did he know and when did he know it. Apparently Obama knew a lot more than he was letting on. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Less than four months after President Barack Obama took office, his new administration received a forceful warning about the dangers of offshore oil drilling. The alarm was rung by a federal appeals court in Washington, D.C., which found that the government was unprepared for a major spill at sea, relying on an "irrational" environmental analysis of the risks of offshore drilling. The April 2009 ruling stunned both the administration and the oil industry, and threatened to delay or cancel dozens of offshore projects in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.

Despite its pro-environment pledges, the Obama administration urged the court to revisit the decision. Politically, it needed to push ahead with conventional oil production while it expanded support for renewable energy.” “Another reason: money. In its arguments to the court, the government said that the loss of royalties on the oil, estimated at almost $10 billion, may have significant financial consequences for the federal government." The U.S. Court of Appeals reversed its decision and allowed drilling in the Gulf to proceed—including on BP PLC's now-infamous Macondo well, 50 miles off the Louisiana coast.

The Obama administration's actions in the court case exemplify the dilemma the White House faced in developing its energy policy. In his presidential campaign, President Obama criticized the Bush administration for being too soft on the oil industry and vowed to support greener energy forms.” So much for change!

Phil can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com and don't forget to catch him every day on the Fox Business Network.


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In this short video , we share with you the downside targets that we have independently arrived at for this index. This video is short and to the point, but you will see exactly what we're looking at. The chart pattern and downside counts are similar for all of the equity markets and I believe that this Friday we will see exactly what's going to happen.

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Crude Oil Signals are Oversold, Lower Prices Still Possible Near Term

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.13
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday morning is 71.93

First support is the overnight low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

Does this one chart line spell doom for the markets?

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.759. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.858 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.858
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.765

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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New Video: Gold Closes Out Q2 on the Plus Side

The gold market has had a lot of publicity and been under intense scrutiny lately as investors, both conservative (Glenn Beck) and liberal (George Soros), are weighing in and recommending a position in gold.

Certainly the trend in gold remains positive, however there are some possible early chinks in the gold armor that I want to bring to your attention in this short video.

We invite you to watch this video with no strings attached and to leave us a comment on this popular market.

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Crude Oil Drops for Sixth Day on Concern Over Slowing Chinese Recovery

Crude oil dropped for a sixth day in New York on concern that the pace of economic recovery is slowing in Europe and China, stalling a rebound in fuel demand. Oil fell below $72 a barrel as the China Automotive Technology & Research Center said car sales expanded at a slower pace in June. European stocks declined for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in a year, as a report showed growth slid in the region’s services and manufacturing industries.

“Crude has come under a bit of pressure because of worries about the global economy,” said Peter McGuire, managing director of CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “Sentiment is negative. Looking at mature markets, it’s pretty bleak. Europe is looking terrible.” Crude oil for August delivery dropped as much as $1.05, or 1.5 percent, to $71.09 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $71.63 at 11:48 a.m. Singapore time. Floor trading was closed yesterday on the Nymex for the U.S. Independence Day holiday and electronic trades are booked into today’s for settlement purposes.

The market is in its longest pullback since a six day drop through May 18. Crude oil has declined 10 percent this year. Prices also fell as a Chinese services industry index slid to a 15 month low, adding to signs that the economy leading the world recovery is cooling. The measure fell to 55.6 from 56.4, HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said yesterday.
....Read the entire article.


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New Video: Downside targets for the S&P 500

In this short video , we share with you the downside targets that we have independently arrived at for this index. This video is short and to the point, but you will see exactly what we're looking at. The chart pattern and downside counts are similar for all of the equity markets and I believe that this Friday we will see exactly what's going to happen.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. All we ask is that you take a minute to make a comment and let us know your views on this market.


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Crude Oil Posts Another Three Week Low as Bears Gain Momentum

Crude oil closed lower on Friday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.31 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.28. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.31. First support is today's low crossing at 71.62. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday ending a two day correction off this week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.869 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.869. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1236.30. Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends this month's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish with this week's decline signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 85.85. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.59. First support is today's low crossing at 84.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

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Commodities Tumbled as US Data Signaled Slowdown

Poor economic data in the US echoed the theme of slowdown demonstrated in Asian countries and this exacerbated risk aversion and accelerated the selloff in risky assets. Decline in commodity prices was broadly based. WTI crude oil price tumbled to a 3 week low at 72.05 before recovering to 72.95, down -3.54%, at close while Brent crude lost -3.56% to settle at 72.34 (intra-day low at 71.5). Base metals were generally lower with losses ranging from 0.8-3.8%. Gold slumped and broke below 1200 as a time as triggered by panic asset sales and ease in funding pressure in the Eurozone. The benchmark gold futures fell -2.67% to settle at 1206.7.

US ISM manufacturing index declined 3.5 points to 56.2 in June while the market had anticipated a milder drop to 59. Initial jobless claims surprisingly increased to 472K in the week ended June 26. This also gave rise to the highest 4 week average, at 466K, since the first week of March. This reading, together with weaker than expected ADP employment addition released Wednesday, suggests the US job market remains vulnerable. Pending home sales contracted -30% m/m in May after rising +6% in the previous month. The decline almost doubled consensus reading.

Signs of slowdown in economic recovery in the US and China (June PMI dropped to 52.1) raised worries over a double-dip recession.

Funding concerns in European banking system eased. The ECB lent a further 111.2B euro in its 6 day operation after a much lower than expected 131.9B euro 3 month operation conducted in the prior day. Banks needed to repay 442B euro in the 12 month LTRO. Meanwhile, a Reuters source said that Germany banks had fared well under the stress tests. The news boosted the euro which surged +2.3% to 1.2522 against the dollar at close.

Today in Asia, most commodities rebounded as yesterday's selloff was probably overextended. In Australia, the government and mining companies reached an agreement on mining tax. Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced to cut the tax to 30% on coal and iron ore earnings, compared with a previous plan to collect 40% of all resource profits. At the same time, the current Petroleum Resource Rent Tax to all onshore and offshore petroleum and gas projects is extended.

Focus of the day is US employment report. Consensus forecast non-farm payrolls dropped -110K in June after rising 431K in the prior month. Unemployment rate probably increased to 9.8% from 9.7% in May.

Oil N' Gold .Com

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Crude Oil Closes Sharply Lower, Posting a New Three Week Low

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Thursday and posted a new three week low as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.29. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.88. First support is today's low crossing at 72.05. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed sharply higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.876. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 5.249. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.


The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it renewed this month's decline below the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Despite today's decline, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.79. First support is today's low crossing at 84.96. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed sharply lower on Thursday and below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1263.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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