Crude Oil Pares Losses as U.S. Inventory Drops More Than Analysts Forecast

Crude oil fluctuated, rebounding from earlier losses, after a U.S. government report showed that inventories declined three times as much as expected last week and refineries bolstered operating rates to a two year high. Supplies fell 5.06 million barrels, or 1.4 percent, to 353.1 million, the most since September, according to the Energy Department. Stockpiles were forecast to slip 1.5 million barrels, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Refineries operated at 90.5 percent of capacity, the highest level since January 2008.

“A 5 million draw in crude oil supplies is pretty bullish any way you look at it,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks and Opinions LLC in Houston. “The outlook for prices is still higher, unless the economy continues to just trudge along.” Crude oil for August delivery rose 2 cents to $77.17 a barrel at 11:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $76.62 before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Brent crude for August settlement increased 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $76.88 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. August Brent futures expire tomorrow. The more active September contract rose 10 cents to $76.83 a barrel.

Retail Sales Drop

Prices also dropped as sales at U.S. retailers fell in June for a second month, indicating the pace of economic recovery moderated heading into the second half of 2010. Purchases decreased a more than projected 0.5 percent following a 1.1 percent May drop, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Retail sales were projected to fall 0.3 percent after a 1.2 percent drop previously reported for May, according to the median estimate of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Excluding auto dealers, demand fell 0.1 percent, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed. Industrial production in the 16-member euro region increased less than forecast in May as the economy struggled to gather strength. Output climbed 0.9 percent from the previous month, when it also increased 0.9 percent, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast output to rise 1.2 percent, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be contacted at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.23. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.37
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 76.26

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.706 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.529
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.706

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.392

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.45. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 75.30

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.752 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.553
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.752

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.398

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.339
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Phil Flynn: A Penny Saved Is A Penny Earned

A penny saved is a penny earned but enough about copper let's talk aluminum. Alcoa set a good tone for the energy markets as they kicked off the earnings season with some better than expected numbers. Yesterday oil prices fell back as the market awaited earnings from Alcoa yet it seems that they were worried about nothing. The Wall Street Journal said, “Alcoa swung to a profit in the second quarter on improved demand and prices after the aluminum producer struggled with anemic prices for the metal a year earlier. Although the price of aluminum has fallen about 12% in 2010, Alcoa offset that drop with a jump in volume, driving a 6% sequential increase to higher than expected revenue.

It also said that better productivity, foreign exchange benefits and lower energy costs contributed to the revenue climb. The top and bottom line growth was driven by higher volumes from stronger end markets and ccontinued gains from our productivity programs," according to Chairman and Chief Executive Klaus Kleinfeld.” The good earnings results set a nice tone and oil responded as it will to the slew of other numbers ahead of us. The market may also focus on the latest report from the International Energy Agency. The IEA, in their latest report, says they expect world oil demand in 2011 to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day. At the same time they expect the demand from China to slow.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Is it Time for the Dollar Index to Rally?

The dollar index, which put in a strong performance in the first six months of the year, pulled back from its recent highs and appears to be in defensive mode.

If you are not familiar with the US dollar index (USDX), it is an index, or measure, of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Its weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value is compared with these currencies in the following percentages:

* Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
* Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
* Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
* Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
* Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
* Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday is 75.86

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.786 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.588
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.786

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.399

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.339
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Crude Oil Declines From One Week High as Traders Sell Futures to Lock in Gains

Crude oil fell in New York for the first time in four days as traders sold contracts to lock in gains following a rally to a one week high above $76 a barrel. Oil rose earlier as China, the world’s second largest energy consumer, reported crude imports reached a record in June. Retail sales in the U.S., the biggest energy user, probably fell in June for a second month and industrial production cooled, signs the expansion will moderate in the second half, economists said before reports this week.

“Some profit taking is coming into the market,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge Group in Tokyo. “From a technical point of view, $76.50 near last week’s highs is around a level to sell. This market will continue to be range bound.”

Crude for August delivery dropped as much as 49 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $75.60 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $75.64 at 2:22 p.m. Singapore time, earlier reaching $76.43. Futures, up 27 percent in the past year, have lost 4.7 percent in 2010.

China’s net crude purchases climbed to 22.14 million metric tons in June, beating the previous record of 20.98 million tons in April, according to preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs on July 10. Imports surged 30 percent in the first half of this year on higher demand and lower costs. The country paid an average of $77.20 a barrel for crude in June, compared with $82.50 in May.....Read the entire article.

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Is Gold About To Rocket and SP500 Tank?

Last week we saw stocks move sharply higher as traders started to cover their short position which added fuel to an already oversold market ready to bounce. Overall volume was not that strong on the move up which is a bearish sign. On Friday afternoon we saw the SP500 continue to move into the $1075 resistance level on very light volume. This indicates to me that buyers are not willing to pay these higher prices because the market has moved up so quickly and the fact that it’s trading at a resistance level.

I feel the market will gap higher on Monday just like we say on June 20/21 deep into a resistance level and the big money will short the pop sending it sharply lower. Gold looks to be shifting its momentum from a down trend to an uptrend as it forms a reverse head & shoulders pattern.

Weekend Conclusion:

In short is looks as thought the market is at a critical pivot point. We could see prices stall out here and continue the down trend or see strong buying step in sending prices higher in the equities market. We need to wait and see what type of price action unfolds in the coming days.

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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil edged lower to 71.09 last week but formed a short term bottom and recovered. Further rise might be seen initially this week but we'd expect upside to be limited by 79.38 resistance and bring fall resumption. At this point, we still favor that case that choppy recovery from 64.23 has completed at 79.38 already. Below 71.09 will target a retest on 64.23.

In the bigger picture, recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 and has possibly completed at 79.38 already. Break of 69.51 will indicate that decline from 87.15 is likely resuming. This will also revive the bearish case that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. In such case, we'd see another fall to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Read the entire article.

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