Crude Oil Falls on Profit Taking, Bulls Still Hold The Advantahe

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.14 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.97. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.54. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.14.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.579 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.625. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.579.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.85. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.66. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 80.56. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

Gold closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.20 confirming that a short term low has been posted. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1218.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1179.70 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1203.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1218.80. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1179.70. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60.

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Phil Flynn: Quantitative Ease Off

The Petroleum markets took a bit of a breather after surging the first few days in August on rising speculation that the Fed worried about anemic Job Growth and a less then sustainable rate of economic activity will revisit the nuclear option and print more money to get the economy moving again. The Wall Street Journal added to this speculation by raising the possibility that the Fed may reinvest the cash it receives when its mortgage bond holdings mature and buy new mortgage or Treasury bonds, instead of allowing its portfolio to shrink gradually, as it is was expected to do.

This speculation drove traders back into the “carry trade” as the dollar tanked against other major currencies most notably the Yen as traders viewed the US recovery softer than in other parts of the globe. Yet despite some less than spectacular data the oil market anyway backed off the easing talk and tried to focus on weak demand.....Read the entire article.

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Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.576 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.696

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.625
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.576

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 82.64
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday morning is 82.10

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.49
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.12

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New Video: How to Spot Winning Trades

In today's video we share with you how to use one of the many features in MarketClub, our Smart Scan technology. Using Smart Scan, you can easily spot winning stocks, futures, precious metals, and currencies that meet one of 24 preset scanning criteria, including uptrends or downtrends.

As traders we have 3 potential positions we can take at all times: (1) We can be long the market (2) We can be short the market (3) We can be on the sidelines and out of the market (options allow you to do other things but I want to keep it simple today).

Using our Smart Scan technology and filtering out the noise can help find some of the real nuggets that are out there.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.94. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.75.

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 46.76 signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.573 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282. First support is today's low crossing at 4.625. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.573.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.81 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.10. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.81. First support is today's low crossing at 80.56. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

Gold closed higher on Tuesday as it continues to rebound off the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1158.30. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.50 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.50. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1191.80. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70.

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New Video: No Leaks in This Crude Oil Market

The massive move up in crude oil on Monday created a new dynamic for this in the news market. The move to two month highs completed one of our favorite major technical formations.

In this short video, we share with you two conflicting indicators and which one we are choosing to go with. I think you'll find this video technically interesting as well as educational.

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Please feel free to comment with your thoughts on this market. As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements needed. Watch "No Leaks in This Crude Oil Market"


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Crude Oil Bulls Take Clear Advantage, Higher Prices Likely

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.71 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 82.10
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 80.65

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.87
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.71

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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.577 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned rally, June's high crossing at 5.282 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.007
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.282

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.796

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.683
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.577

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Monday and above June's high crossing at 80.82 as it renews the rally off May's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 84.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.26 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 71.77. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.50. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.46. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.26.

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Natural gas posted a key reversal down due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.575 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.007. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.082. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.668. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.575.

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.33. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.98. First support is today's low crossing at 80.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 80.47.

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Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it continues to rebound off the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1158.30. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1189.90. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 1191.80. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1155.60. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 1132.70.

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Crude Oil Tops $80 a Barrel for First Time Since May as Equities Rise

Crude oil surged above $81 a barrel for the first time since May as a rally in global equity markets increased speculation the economy is strengthening. Oil jumped as much as 3.6 percent after equities climbed on better than expected earnings and the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. manufacturing gauge fell less than forecast. The dollar dropped against the euro, boosting the investment appeal of commodities.

“Oil is following the S&P 500,” said Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank AG in Washington. “Fundamentals don’t seem to matter. You don’t need to be an oil analyst anymore. You just need to be a stock market analyst.” Crude for September delivery rose $2.44, or 3.1 percent, to $81.39 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, it touched $81.77, the highest price since May 5. Futures climbed 4.4 percent in July, the biggest monthly gain since March. Prices are up 17 percent from a year ago.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 2 percent to 1,123.86 following positive earnings reports from companies such as Humana Inc. and Oshkosh Corp. It jumped 6.9 percent in July, the biggest monthly advance since July 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened 191.94, or 1.8 percent, to 10,657.88. The MSCI World Index, a gauge of equities in 24 developed nations, rose 2.3 percent to 1,150.79, the highest level since May 13. European stocks climbed to a three-month high on gains among banks and basic resource producers.

“Equities did well in July and profits are generally OK, so people are feeling bullish across the board,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts.....Read the entire article.

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