CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Phil Flynn: A 27 Year High
Now just stop and think where the price of oil was 27 years ago and what kind of world we lived in 1983. Some things were different but some are the same. Ronald Regan was president and had just lifted wage and price controls on oil. It was the first year that the NYMEX had offered futures contracts on crude, the price per barrel was hovering around $30 a barrel. We were just emerging out of the of a 4 year recession that saw rapid job destruction and an unemployment topped out at 10.8%. Sound familiar.....Read the entire article.
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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.59 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.36
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.59
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 75.00
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 73.83
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
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Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Gold, Silver, Crude Oil & SP 500 ETF Trends & Reversal Levels
Trading commodities and indexes through the use of exchange traded funds sure keeps things simple for an average trader. These funds allow individual investors to buy and sell things like gold, silver, oil, the sp500 and other investments which where not available only few months ago like “wheat” for example.
One of the nice things with ETFs is that they allow everyone to follow the price of a commodity or index using any charting website and can even apply indicators to help spot key support and resistance levels using volume by price analysis. There is no need for a expensive data feeds, charting programs and you don’t have to worry about contract expiration.
Below are a few charts of the trend and my short term forecast.....
GLD – Gold Bullion ETF
As you can see gold broke out of its support zone this week and popped into the next resistance level. This is very typical price action in the stock market. It is important to look at the price charts like an apartment building. It’s nothing but a bunch of floors and ceilings.
How it works; if a ball breaks though a floor it will naturally fall to the next floor and bounce. The same for if a ball breaks through a ceiling, it will hit the next ceiling then bounce back down. This is essentially how the market moves.
SLV – Silver ETF
Silver is forming a large pennant and nearing its apex. With the amount of volume traded within this large volume channel I would expect a sharp breakout once a direction is made.
USO – Oil Traded Fund
Crude oil had a funky day. Early Wednesday morning in pre-market trading we saw virtually every investment drop at the same time which was strange. Anyways the US dollar dropped sharply and oil when down also. Normally as the dollar drops oil rockets higher but that was not the case today.
Currently oil is trading between two trendlines and is trying to hold up. If we get a breakdown then we could see a sharp drop in oil over the next 1-2 weeks.
SPY- SP500 ETF Trading Fund
The SP500 is trading within a high volume channel, similar to silver. Once a breakout in either direction is made I would expect a sizable move lasting a few weeks.
Mid-Week Commodity and Index ETF Report
In short, the market looks bearish for the short term of 5-10 trading sessions. This is because everything looks to be trading near resistance levels. That naturally brings sellers out of the woodwork putting pressure on prices.
Silver and gold stocks tend to lead the metals sector on breakouts so it will be important to keep an eye on them as we near a possible breakout or breakdown in the metals. If you see SLV or GDX ETFs out performing the GLD gold fund by 2-3x then I would expect to see gold move higher later that session or the following day.
The US dollar trend usually helps to identify if oil will have downward pressure or not. Also energy stocks tend to lead the price of oil by a few hours and some times a day. I keep an eye on XLE energy etf for a feel of how the energy stocks are doing and also UUP US dollar fund.
As for equities tech, financials and the Russell 2K (small cap stock) tend to lead the way for the broad market. Watching XLK, XLF and IWM help to confirm breakouts.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's Trading Analysis and Alerts please join his free newsletter at The Gold And Oil Guy .Com
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One of the nice things with ETFs is that they allow everyone to follow the price of a commodity or index using any charting website and can even apply indicators to help spot key support and resistance levels using volume by price analysis. There is no need for a expensive data feeds, charting programs and you don’t have to worry about contract expiration.
Below are a few charts of the trend and my short term forecast.....
GLD – Gold Bullion ETF
As you can see gold broke out of its support zone this week and popped into the next resistance level. This is very typical price action in the stock market. It is important to look at the price charts like an apartment building. It’s nothing but a bunch of floors and ceilings.
How it works; if a ball breaks though a floor it will naturally fall to the next floor and bounce. The same for if a ball breaks through a ceiling, it will hit the next ceiling then bounce back down. This is essentially how the market moves.
SLV – Silver ETF
Silver is forming a large pennant and nearing its apex. With the amount of volume traded within this large volume channel I would expect a sharp breakout once a direction is made.
USO – Oil Traded Fund
Crude oil had a funky day. Early Wednesday morning in pre-market trading we saw virtually every investment drop at the same time which was strange. Anyways the US dollar dropped sharply and oil when down also. Normally as the dollar drops oil rockets higher but that was not the case today.
Currently oil is trading between two trendlines and is trying to hold up. If we get a breakdown then we could see a sharp drop in oil over the next 1-2 weeks.
SPY- SP500 ETF Trading Fund
The SP500 is trading within a high volume channel, similar to silver. Once a breakout in either direction is made I would expect a sizable move lasting a few weeks.
Mid-Week Commodity and Index ETF Report
In short, the market looks bearish for the short term of 5-10 trading sessions. This is because everything looks to be trading near resistance levels. That naturally brings sellers out of the woodwork putting pressure on prices.
Silver and gold stocks tend to lead the metals sector on breakouts so it will be important to keep an eye on them as we near a possible breakout or breakdown in the metals. If you see SLV or GDX ETFs out performing the GLD gold fund by 2-3x then I would expect to see gold move higher later that session or the following day.
The US dollar trend usually helps to identify if oil will have downward pressure or not. Also energy stocks tend to lead the price of oil by a few hours and some times a day. I keep an eye on XLE energy etf for a feel of how the energy stocks are doing and also UUP US dollar fund.
As for equities tech, financials and the Russell 2K (small cap stock) tend to lead the way for the broad market. Watching XLK, XLF and IWM help to confirm breakouts.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's Trading Analysis and Alerts please join his free newsletter at The Gold And Oil Guy .Com
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Crude Oil Hits Five Week Lows, Inventory Fears Weigh
Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group, said oil inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels last week, while stocks gasoline and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, rose by around 2 million barrels each. The unexpected rise in inventories combined with falling equities Wednesday morning to push crude to the lowest level since July 7. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 48 points to 10357.
Growing stockpiles suggest that demand for oil and oil products is having trouble keeping up with supply, a worrying prospect for a market already flush with crude. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Okla., delivery point for Nymex benchmark crude are inching closer to record levels set in May. And inventories of gasoline remain above five-year averages amid the important U.S. summer driving season.
The Department of Energy is set to report its own statistics on inventories at 10:30 a.m. EDT Wednesday. These more influential data are expected to show a 1.3-million-barrel decline in crude stocks, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts. Gasoline stocks are seen falling by 500,000 barrels, while distillate inventories are expected to grow by 1.2 million barrels.....Read the entire article.
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Crude Oil Continues it's Slide, Here's Wednesday's Numbers
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.94
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.74
Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday is 75.80
First support is the overnight low crossing at 74.69
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at 72.96
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Tuesday, August 17, 2010
New Video: The Bear is Back!!
In this new 90 second video we show you some of the scenarios we can see playing out for the S&P 500. I think you'll find this new video informative and educational. You will also come to understand the power of our "Trade Triangle" technology.
Please feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts on this market. As always our videos are free to watch and there is no registration needed.
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Crude Oil Falls After Industry Report Shows Higher U.S. Oil, Gasoline Supplies
“The fact that crude oil and gasoline is building, that’s definitely not good,” said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “We’ve got a ways to go before people are confident about the U.S. economy.” Crude oil for September delivery dropped as much as 34 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $75.43 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $75.62 at 12:10 p.m. Singapore time. Futures rose 0.7 percent yesterday to $75.77. Prices are up 9.2 percent from a year ago.
The Energy Department report may show U.S. gasoline supplies declined 375,000 barrels last week, according to the Bloomberg News survey. The report is scheduled to be released at 10:30 a.m. in Washington today. Work began on 546,000 houses at an annual rate last month, fewer than the 560,000 median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and up 1.7 percent from June, Commerce Department figures showed yesterday in Washington.....Read the entire article.
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New Video: The Shine Comes Back to Gold
Our "Trade Triangle" technology flashed a buy signal on gold at $1,210.52 on August 12. Since that time the gold market has rallied some $15.
We think you'll find this video on one of the most emotional markets in the world to be right on the money.
Please feel free to add your insights on this market in the comments section. As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.
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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning
If September extends the aforementioned decline, the reaction low crossing at 74.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.72
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 75.35
First support is Monday's low crossing at 74.86
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 74.70
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