Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If November extends the rally off last week's low, the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.99 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.87
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of August's decline crossing at 82.41
Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.01
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.99
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.58
When is the last time that crude oil closed as high as $81.64 per barrel? You’d have to look back to 2008. At that time, crude was on its way down. This time, commodities like oil are trending higher! There are plenty of exchange traded investments for rising crude oil prices. Perhaps the most popular is United States Oil (USO), an ETF that endeavors to capture the the spot price of West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude.
It should be noted, however, that USO has struggled immensely at tracking its intended index due to contango and backwardation. And the iPath Crude Oil ETN (OIL) hasn’t fared a whole heck of a lot better. Other folks hope to benefit from the corporations that explore for, produce and sell the commodity. Yet share prices of big energy companies have been hit from everything from oil drilling moratoriums to taxation and regulatory uncertainty.
ETFs like SPDR Select Energy (XLE) and Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH) have been under-performers regardless of reasonable share price valuation. So what’s an oil investor to do? Can you march to the beat of the oil drum....and actually achieve over sized returns? Yes you can. However, you might want to look in a slightly different direction.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil traded near an eight week high after economic data from the U.S. and China bolstered optimism that demand is growing in the world’s two largest energy consuming countries. Futures advanced 2 percent on Oct. 1 after U.S. consumer spending increased more than forecast in August as incomes climbed, a Commerce Department report showed. Prices also rose as China’s purchasing managers’ index gained in September at the fastest pace in four months.
“The broad sentiment is that a double dip in the U.S. is looking more and more unlikely,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Combine that with the strong growth in China, and you’ve got the world’s two biggest oil consumers both looking like they’re in a recovery period.”
The November contract was at $81.63 a barrel, up 5 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 11:07 a.m. Singapore time after reaching $81.87. It surged $1.61 to settle at $81.58 on Oct. 1, the highest close since Aug. 5, capping the biggest weekly gain since February. Consumer purchases in the U.S. climbed for a second month, rising 0.4 percent and exceeding the 0.3 percent gain projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Incomes were up 0.5 percent, the biggest advance this year.....Read the entire article.
Investors around the globe are concerned with the economic outlook, not only with the United States but with virtually every country. This has caused not only investors but banks and countries to start buying gold & silver in order to be protected incase of a currency melt down in the coming years.
While the majority is concerned about the eroding economy, we have seen the opposite in the financial market. Gold and equities have risen… That being said the volume in the market remains light simply because the average investor is no longer putting money into the market for long term growth. Instead individuals are now focusing on saving and paying down debt.
That being said we all know light volume market conditions allow Wall Street powerhouses to bid the market up. Not to mention with quantitative easing taking place I’m sure that has also helped the market of late. While we don’t know for sure that QE is taking place as we speak, the sharp drop in the dollar and strong move up in gold are pricing this into the market.
Let’s take a look at some charts....
HUI – Gold Stock Index
This long term monthly chart of the HUI index provides valuable trading signals for both gold stocks and gold bullion. As you can see below this index is trading at a key resistance level after forming a bullish 3 year Cup & Handle pattern. The next 1-2 months for the precious metals sector will be interesting as it tries to break above key resistance. I would really like to see the HUI:GLD ratio break to the upside to confirm if the breakout occurs.
SPY – Daily Long Term Trend
The broad market looks to be forming a short term topping wedge. If this is to occurI expect it to take several weeks to play out. Looking at the chart if we use Fibonacci retracements along with trend line support we can get a feel for where this pullback should correct to.
That being said the broad market breadth and internals seem to be holding up indicating higher prices over the long run. While the short term price action is overbought and I expect a pullback to form, my analysis is pointing to higher prices as we go into year end.
UUP – US Dollar Daily Price Action
Although the majority of investors have a bearish outlook on the economy, we have seen a large price appreciation in equities and precious metals. This is largely due to the fact that the US dollar is quickly getting devalued. Simply put, as the dollar drops, it helps boost commodities and stock prices.
While a rising stock market is great to see, at some point the dollar will become so cheap that it will start to have a very negative affect on the US economy, commodities and stocks. Being from Canada it has always been more expensive to take holidays in the United States, and I remember paying $1.50-$1.70 for every $1 green back. But now the dollar is almost at par making holidays very affordable. The big question/concern is when will they ease off on the printing? At the rate which they are printing the greenback will be at par with peso… well not that extreme but you get the point Eh!
Weekend Market Conclusion:
As we all know the market has a way of making sure the majority of traders miss major turning points. The saying is, “If the market doesn’t shake you out, it will wear you out” and it seems we are getting the later…
The never ending grind higher in precious metals has not had any big shakeouts, rather its wearing out any short positions before rolling over to take a breather. As for the stock market, we are getting much of the same thing as the market grinds higher day after wearing out the shorts before rolling over.
That being said, there is more at work here than just regular market movements. With the light volume in the market we know there is price manipulation and QE (quantitative Easing) which is helping to boost prices and exaggerate market movements.
An internationally renowned energy expert has written a book essential for every American, a galvanizing account of how the rising price and diminishing availability of oil are going to radically change our lives. Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a powerful and provocative book that explores what the new global economy will look like and what it will mean for all of us.
In a compelling and accessible style, Jeff Rubin reveals that despite the recent recessionary dip, oil prices will skyrocket again once the economy recovers. The fact is, worldwide oil reserves are disappearing for good. Consequently, the amount of food and other goods we get from abroad will be curtailed; long-distance driving will become a luxury and international travel rare. Globalization as we know it will reverse. The near future will be a time that, in its physical limits, may resemble the distant past.
But Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller is a hopeful work about how we can benefit–personally, politically, and economically....from this new reality. American industries such as steel and agriculture, for instance, will be revitalized. As well, Rubin prescribes priorities for President Obama and other leaders, from imposing carbon tariffs that will increase competition and productivity, to investing in mass transit instead of car-clogged highways, to forging “green” alliances between labor and management that will be good for both business and the air we breathe.
Most passionately, Rubin recommends ways every citizen can secure this better life for himself, actions that will end our enslavement to chain-store taste and strengthen our communities and timeless human values.
About the Author
Jeff Rubin is the chief economist and chief strategist at CIBC World Markets. He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices back in 2000 and is now one of the world’s most sought after energy experts. He lives in Toronto.
Natural gas continued to stay in sideway consolidations in familiar range last week and outlook remains unchanged. While another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 4.288 support turned resistance and bring resumption of the whole fall from 5.196. Below 3.732 minor support will suggest that such consolidation is completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 3.61 support. Break will target 3.0 psychological level next. However, decisive break of 4.288 will indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and will bring stronger rise to 5.007 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, whole decline from 6.108 is still in progress and further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 6.108 to 3.81 from 5.194 at 2.896 next. More importantly, recent development revived the case that medium term rebound from 2.409 is completed at 6.108 already. Also, fall from 6.108 might indeed be resuming the long term down trend for a new low below 2.409. We'll pay attention to the structure of the current decline for more hints. On the upside, break of 4.288 resistance will be the first signal of reversal. Further break of 5.007/194 resistance zone will in turn argue that fall from 6.108 has finished.
In the longer term picture, while the bounce from 2.409 was strong, it's been limited below 55 months EMA (now at 5.814) and reversed. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA (now at 4.498) also argue that 2.409 might not be the bottom yet. We'll stay bearish as long as this year's high of 6.108 holds and favor a new low below 2.409 going forward.
Weakness in the dollar continued to support commodities. Although several US data released last week beat expectations, speculations that the Fed will expand the bond buying program did not abate. The dollar index plunged for a 3rd week to 78.08, down -1.65% on the week.
The energy complex was the best performer of the week with crude oil and fuel prices surging 6-7%. Precious metals strengthened further with gold making new nominal highs and silver 30 year highs. Base metals continued to perform well as strong Chinese PMI signaled demand for the complex should sustain.
Central bank meetings will be the focus next week. Driven by robust economic data and hawkish speeches from policymakers, the RBA is expected to raise the policy rate by 25 bps on Tuesday. The ECB and the BOE will be meeting on Thursday. We believe both central banks will leave monetary policies unchanged.
This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don't attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it's Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a "best of" letter. The best ideas I've heard and the best charts I've seen at this conference. Then we close with two short but very thoughtful essays from Charles Gave and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal on "The Morality of Chinese Growth." Lots of charts and something to make you think. Should be a good letter.
John Hofmeister is the former president of Shell Oil and now CEO of the public-policy group Citizens for Affordable Energy. He paints a very stark (even bleak, as he gets further into the speech) picture of the future of energy production in the US unless we change our current policies. First, because of the aftereffects of the moratorium. It is his belief that the drilling moratorium will effectively still be in place until at least the middle of 2012. There won't even be new rules until the end of 2011, and then the lawsuits start.
Gulf oil production will be down by up to 1 million barrels a day. Imported oil is now 67% of oil usage but will go to 75% by 2012. He thinks crude oil will be up to $125 and gasoline between $4-$5 at the pump. And it will only get worse. He describes the problem with the electricity from coal production. The average coal plant is 38 years old, with a planned-for life of 50 years. Our energy production capability is rapidly aging, and we are not updating it fast enough.
He argues that the fight between the right and the left has given us 37 years without a realistic energy policy, as policy gets driven by two year political cycles but good energy planning takes decades. There are 13 government agencies that regulate the energy industry, with conflicting mandates that change very two years. There are 22 congressional committees that have some level of involvement and oversight of the energy industry.
Crude oil's rise from 72.75 accelerated to as high as 81.75 last week and the development suggests that whole rise from 70.76 is not corrective in nature. In other words, rise from 70.76 is resuming whole rebound from 64.23 and should extend beyond 82.97 resistance. Initial bias is on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 161.8% projection of 70.76 to 78.04 from 72.75 at 84.53. On the downside, below 79.70 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 77.32) and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, the stronger than expected rally from 70.76 dampened the immediate bearish view and suggests that rise from 64.23 is still in progress. Nevertheless, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Hence, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18).
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall from 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.
