Senior contributor Dan Dicker details Baker-Hughes' huge quarter, its subsequent ramp up and how you can make money on the stock.
Share
Monday, November 8, 2010
Crude Oil Declines From Two Year High After Dollar Advances Against Euro
Crude for December delivery was unchanged from Nov. 5 at $86.85 a barrel at 12:52 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has gained 12 percent in the past year. Prices jumped 6.7 percent last week, the most since February, as the Labor Department said U.S. payrolls climbed by 151,000 workers in October following a revised 41,000 drop the prior month. New York oil futures reached $87.49 a barrel earlier today, the highest price since Oct. 9, 2008, on an intraday basis. Brent crude for December settlement rose 20 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $88.31 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.
The world will “have to live with current oil prices,” Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said today in Doha. The market isn’t oversupplied with oil, he added. The dollar gained 0.6 percent to $1.3943 per euro from $1.4032 on Nov. 5 in New York. The currency has advanced 1.9 percent since Nov. 4. It rose today amid concern that Ireland will struggle to plug its budget deficit......Read the entire article.
Share
Leverage Misuse and Abuse in FOREX
However, this low margin and high leverage is also the #1 risk and cause of loss among novice Forex traders. Misuse of leverage is the Forex cardinal sin. In the article below I'm going to explain the new leverage rules, and show you exactly how to take advantage of it! To give you even more I put together this Free Forex Toolkit with an entire video section dedicated to using the new leverage rules to consistently profit…GET IT HERE.
What do we mean by low margin and what is leverage? Well basically this means that you can control a huge amount of a currency in the Forex market with a very small cash outlay. The normal stock and index options that we trade at BigTrends.com represent 100 shares of stock — you pay a premium to control/own this option. For example, in the stock option market you may be able to control the right to buy 100 shares of IBM for $500 — this is an example of leverage. However, the leverage in Forex is much greater than this in most cases … but so is the risk.
We only have to look at the recent housing market crash to see an example of where leverage and low margin caused massive losses among individual investors. People across the world were buying houses and properties beyond their means and with very little cash down. Many of these were speculative, greedy bets on a continued sharp rise in housing prices — which knowledgeable, experienced traders such as ourselves knew wouldn't continue forever. They weren't bad homeowners; they simply misused leverage.
The huge amount of potential leverage and low margin requirements in fx trading is similar to this. The latest rules allow Forex leverage for 50:1 on major currencies and 20:1 on minor currencies. Some brokers may still be able to offer 100:1 leverage. What this means is that a trader can often control millions of dollars of a currency proposition with a very small cash outlay. When novice traders allow emotions such as greed and fear to rule their trading, they often end up on the losing end of large leveraged bets.
Thanks for reading, and we've got a lot more where that came from! While you wait for our next article get our Free Forex Toolkit that will put your Forex trading on the right track!
Share
Bullish Forces Building in the Energy Commodities
We find it rather amusing to observe how punters/bloggers (call them what you will) are so engrossed with the whole "QE2" thing and how popular it has become to trash the Fed and/or Bernanke, yet beneath their feet, life goes on. I say this because it appears people are more concerned with what Bernanke is doing rather than taking note of what is happening on the commodity front and in particular within the energy group of commodities, that is; crude, coal, uranium, and ethanol. In essence, the energy group has been locked in a trading range since October of last year, but now some 12 months later, there is evidence from a broad based perspective that energy commodities have broken out of their trading ranges. We would not take things too seriously if there was bullish action in one or two energy commodities, but when there is strength from crude, heating oil, diesel, gasoline, bunkers, ethanol, uranium, and coal - well, you better believe that something is happening.
But, is the strength in energy commodities only due to the actions by the Fed to debase the USD? Well, yes, that is what the average analyst/blogger/commentator would have us believe...but has anyone considered what is happening outside the US, and Europe for that matter? From an economic expansion perspective, what is going on in Asia (ex Japan), China, India, South America, Australia? Do you know that over 50% of the world GDP is accounted for by so called emerging markets? OK, to get straight to the point, energy demand is increasing rapidly. What happens in the US and Europe is now of little consequence. OK, that is perhaps an exaggeration, but I hope that you get my point. I think there is a lot more at play here than just the Fed debasing the value of the USD......Read the entire article.
Free Trading Video: Day Trading Made Simple
Share
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Nov. 8th
If December extends last week's rally, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.49
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07
Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 86.75
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.94
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.10
Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks
Share
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Crude Oil Trades Near a Two Year High as U.S. Employment Figures Beat Forecasts
“Oil is quite positive, the market has taken heart in the unemployment rate,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “Crude has broken through the topside of the range, so you’ve got to look for higher prices.” Crude for December delivery was at $86.90 a barrel, up 5 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:27 p.m. Singapore time. The contract earlier rose as much as 64 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $87.49, the highest since Oct. 9, 2008. Futures are up 10 percent in 2010.
The increase in U.S. payrolls was the first since May and exceeded all estimates from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The U.S. jobless rate held at 9.6 percent, where it’s been since August, according to the Labor Department......Read the entire article.
Market Trends Trading Made Easy - Learn How
Share
SPX's Running Correction, Gold's Setup, Crude Oil Explodes!
The financial markets continue to climb the wall of worry on the back of more Fed Quantitative Easing. Those trying to pick a top in this choppy bull market may prove to be correct for a couple hours but over time the shorts continue to get clobbered.
Quantitative easing was enough to turn gold back up and gave oil just enough of a nudge to breakout of its cup and handle pattern explained later.
The past few weeks the number of emails I receive on a daily basis about what individuals should do about short positions they took on their own has growing quickly. Usually when my inbox starts to fill up with traders holding heavy losses trying to pick a top I know something big is about to happen and its not going to be in the favor of the herd (everyone shorting). In the past couple week there have been some great entry points for the broad market whether its to buy the SP500, Dow, NASDAQ or Russell 2K. I focus on trading with the trend and entering on extreme sentiment readings as shown in the chart below.
Extreme Trend Trading Analysis
Below are my main market sentiment indicators for helping to time short term tops and bottoms. That being said I don’t pick short term tops in hopes to profit on the down side. Rather I wait for a extreme sentiment bottom to be put in place, then enter long with the up trend (Buy Low).
Once there is a 1-2% surge in price and sentiment indicators are showing a short term top I like to pull a little money off the table to lock in some profits while still holding a core position (Sell High). This is exactly what I/subscribers have done over the last couple weeks. This is a simple yet highly effective strategy and works just as well in a down trend except I focus on shorting extreme sentiment bounces. Subscribers know what these indicators are as I cover them each week in my daily pre-market trading videos as we prepare for the day ahead.
SPX Running Correction
Since early September the equities market has been on fire. In late September the market was extremely toppy looking and trading at key resistance levels from prior highs convincing a lot of traders to take a short position. But instead of a correction the market surged and has since continued to grind its way up week after week.
This rising choppy price action can be seen two ways:
1. As a rising wedge with a blow off top (Bearish)
2. Or as a Running Consolidation (Bullish)
The running consolidation happens when buyers are abundant picking up more shares on every little dip. Overall looking at the intraday price action you will see market shakeouts as it tries to buck traders out before it continues higher. This choppy looking market action if not read correctly looks extremely bearish to the novice trader and the fact the market is so overbought it easily convinces them to take short positions. This choppy action is just enough to wash the market of weak positions before starting another run up.
All that said, both a blow off rising wedge and a running correction are very bullish patterns for a period of time. Again I cannot state it enough, trade with the trend and the key moving averages.
Gold Shines On The Daily Chart
The gold story is straight forward really… Trend is up, quantitative easing is back in action and that is helping to list gold and silver prices. Key moving averages have turned back up and gold closed at a new high which shows strength.
Golden Rocket
With another round of quantitative easing just starting and gold making another new high last week there is a very good chance gold stocks will rocket higher in the coming 8 months. I have been following Millrock Resources Inc. because of the team involved with this company. A breakout to the upside here could post some exciting gains if you take a look at the chart and see where the majority of volume has traded over the years along with the bullish chart patterns (Cup & Handle/Rising Wedge) with strong confirming volume. From 84 cents to the $3.50 area there should not be many sellers other than traders slowing taking profits on the way up.
Crude Oil Breaks Out Of Cup
Crude oil has been dormant the past few weeks even though the US Dollar has plummeted. But last week’s news on more QE was enough to send oil higher. The surge took oil prices straight to the 2010 highs as expected and blew past my first target of $86.00 per barrel. I figure it will consolidate here for a while until we see if the dollar bottomed last week or is just testing the breakdown level.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market has played out exactly as we planned and all four of our positions are deep in the money. As we all know the market goes in waves in both price and for trade setups. The past couple weeks were great for getting into trades and now the market is running in our direction. It will take a few days for the market to stabilize (pullback or pause) before we could get anther round of trade setups. Keep position sizes small as the market remains overbought and a sharp correction could happen at any time. Until then, keep trading with the trend.
Get Chris Vermeulen's Daily Pre-Market Trading Videos, Daily Updates & Trade Alerts Here at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Disclaimer: Chris owns shares of SPY and MRO.V
Share
Quantitative easing was enough to turn gold back up and gave oil just enough of a nudge to breakout of its cup and handle pattern explained later.
The past few weeks the number of emails I receive on a daily basis about what individuals should do about short positions they took on their own has growing quickly. Usually when my inbox starts to fill up with traders holding heavy losses trying to pick a top I know something big is about to happen and its not going to be in the favor of the herd (everyone shorting). In the past couple week there have been some great entry points for the broad market whether its to buy the SP500, Dow, NASDAQ or Russell 2K. I focus on trading with the trend and entering on extreme sentiment readings as shown in the chart below.
Extreme Trend Trading Analysis
Below are my main market sentiment indicators for helping to time short term tops and bottoms. That being said I don’t pick short term tops in hopes to profit on the down side. Rather I wait for a extreme sentiment bottom to be put in place, then enter long with the up trend (Buy Low).
Once there is a 1-2% surge in price and sentiment indicators are showing a short term top I like to pull a little money off the table to lock in some profits while still holding a core position (Sell High). This is exactly what I/subscribers have done over the last couple weeks. This is a simple yet highly effective strategy and works just as well in a down trend except I focus on shorting extreme sentiment bounces. Subscribers know what these indicators are as I cover them each week in my daily pre-market trading videos as we prepare for the day ahead.
SPX Running Correction
Since early September the equities market has been on fire. In late September the market was extremely toppy looking and trading at key resistance levels from prior highs convincing a lot of traders to take a short position. But instead of a correction the market surged and has since continued to grind its way up week after week.
This rising choppy price action can be seen two ways:
1. As a rising wedge with a blow off top (Bearish)
2. Or as a Running Consolidation (Bullish)
The running consolidation happens when buyers are abundant picking up more shares on every little dip. Overall looking at the intraday price action you will see market shakeouts as it tries to buck traders out before it continues higher. This choppy looking market action if not read correctly looks extremely bearish to the novice trader and the fact the market is so overbought it easily convinces them to take short positions. This choppy action is just enough to wash the market of weak positions before starting another run up.
All that said, both a blow off rising wedge and a running correction are very bullish patterns for a period of time. Again I cannot state it enough, trade with the trend and the key moving averages.
Gold Shines On The Daily Chart
The gold story is straight forward really… Trend is up, quantitative easing is back in action and that is helping to list gold and silver prices. Key moving averages have turned back up and gold closed at a new high which shows strength.
Golden Rocket
With another round of quantitative easing just starting and gold making another new high last week there is a very good chance gold stocks will rocket higher in the coming 8 months. I have been following Millrock Resources Inc. because of the team involved with this company. A breakout to the upside here could post some exciting gains if you take a look at the chart and see where the majority of volume has traded over the years along with the bullish chart patterns (Cup & Handle/Rising Wedge) with strong confirming volume. From 84 cents to the $3.50 area there should not be many sellers other than traders slowing taking profits on the way up.
Crude Oil Breaks Out Of Cup
Crude oil has been dormant the past few weeks even though the US Dollar has plummeted. But last week’s news on more QE was enough to send oil higher. The surge took oil prices straight to the 2010 highs as expected and blew past my first target of $86.00 per barrel. I figure it will consolidate here for a while until we see if the dollar bottomed last week or is just testing the breakdown level.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market has played out exactly as we planned and all four of our positions are deep in the money. As we all know the market goes in waves in both price and for trade setups. The past couple weeks were great for getting into trades and now the market is running in our direction. It will take a few days for the market to stabilize (pullback or pause) before we could get anther round of trade setups. Keep position sizes small as the market remains overbought and a sharp correction could happen at any time. Until then, keep trading with the trend.
Get Chris Vermeulen's Daily Pre-Market Trading Videos, Daily Updates & Trade Alerts Here at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Disclaimer: Chris owns shares of SPY and MRO.V
Share
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Commodity Corner: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline End the Week Higher
Oil for December delivery, which had received a boost during the week from the U.S. midterm elections and the Federal Reserve's "Quantitative Easing 2" policy to stimulate the economy, got a boost Friday from new U.S. Department of Labor jobs figures. According to the Labor Department, nonfarm payroll private-sector employment increased by 151,000 jobs in October. However, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.6 percent.
Crude oil traded from $85.96 to $87.22 Friday. Compared to Monday's settlement price, it is up 4.7 percent for the week.
Despite a steady string of increases throughout the week, gasoline for December delivery ended the day flat at $2.18 a gallon on Friday. Front month gasoline, which peaked at $2.19 and bottomed out at $2.16 during the day's session, finished the week up 4.3 percent.
Free Weekly Low Risk Stock Picks
Share
Oil N'Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Saturday Nov. 6th
In the bigger picture, the close above 87.15 key resistance indicates that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed. Such rise is treated as the second wave of the consolidation pattern that started at 147.27. Further should now be seen towards 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 103.70. On the downside, break of 64.23 support is needed to confirm that crude oil has topped. Otherwise, we won't turn bearish.
In the long term picture, rebound from 33.2 is not finished yet. But overall view remains unchanged. Crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2, second wave from there unfolding. Current development suggests that a breach of 61.8% retracement at 103.70 is likely. But we'll then start to focus on reversal signal again above 103.70.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly, Monthly Charts
Stock Research & Trading Alerts From The Gold and Oil Guy
Share
Friday, November 5, 2010
Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Friday Evening Nov. 5th
Why is INO TV the Logical Choice?
Share
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
