Crude Oil Retreats amid Rate Hike Concerns in China

Heightened speculations on rate hikes in China have weighed on financial markets. Asian equities plunged amid worries that slowdown in Chinese growth will affect corporate profits while European bourses fluctuated between gains and losses. In the commodity sector, the front month contract for WTI crude oil fell after faltering below 86. Gold, however, climbed for another day to as high as 1377. Sovereign woes in the European periphery remained under the spotlight.

The market focus has once again turned to China. Zhong Jiyin, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences wrote in China Daily that the country needs to raise interest rates by another 200 bps to curb inflation, given existing excess liquidity. Although the government has implemented a series of measures, including increasing RRR and raising margins for certain commodity futures, the impacts on inflation are not significant and CPI rose to 4.4% y/y in October, The market has been speculating that a rate hike can come over the next few weeks. According to Zhong, raising RRR may help ease the situation but is 'not enough to reverse it. The increase in the required reserve ratios for banks can prevent the rise of excess liquidity and ensure that the situation does not deteriorate further'. It will 'do little to get rid of the existing excess liquidity. Increasing interest rates is a common measure taken to check inflation'.

In Europe, it's obvious that the bailout for Ireland failed to stem contagion. The market currently expects the EU will need to rescue more peripheral European countries with Portugal being the one after Ireland. Indeed, apart from Portugal, CDS spreads and yield spreads between Spanish/Italian bonds and German bunds have continued to soar. According to Bloomberg news, Spain's banks may struggle to refinance about 85B euro in debt in 2011 and this may trigger the country to seek a bailout from EU/IMF.

China' rate hike and European sovereign concerns have dominated the headlines, overshadowing macroeconomic data. Germany's unemployment fell -9K to 3.14M, the lowest level since December 1992, in November. Unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 7.5%. We will have housing, manufacturing and confidence data in the NY session. Growth in S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 index may have eased to +1% in September. Chicago Fed will report its manufacturing PMI which probably dipped -0.7 to 59.9 in November. Consumer Confidence is expected to have improved to 52.7 in November from 50.2 in the prior month.

Posted courtesy of Oil N'Gold

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New Video: Where is Gold Headed and How Can You Prepare?

The gold market has been pushing out its normal level of frustration and anxiety for the past several weeks.

So the question becomes, is the gold market pausing to move higher, and of course the Bulls would argue this, or is it forming the head and shoulders top that many technicians are looking for? Of course, this would be a bearish sign for gold if this technical formation is completed.

We've just finished a short video that shows you what we're looking at right now in gold and how I think it is going to be resolved. The video is a little over 2 minutes. It's quick and to the point while supplying you with what you need to take your place in or out of this market.

Just Click Here to Watch today's video "Where is Gold Headed and How Can You Prepare?"

You may also wish to attend our gold webinar which we are holding on the 2nd of December at 4 PM EST. The webinar is free of charge, but you need to register in order to attend. This is no hype, but we have limited space and it will be on a first come first served basis. The important thing is that you register as soon as possible.

Here is the link to register for the webinar

While you do need to register to attend our gold webinar, in order to watch today's short video no registration is required nor is there any charge.

We hope to see you at this week's Gold webinar so don't forget to register.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Monday Morning Nov. 30th

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rebound off the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 81.14. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If January extends the rally off last week's low, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.00 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 85.90
Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 85.07

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.00
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28

Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.213 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January renews this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last week's high crossing at 4.515.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654.

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday is 4.288

First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.166.
Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.

Gold was higher overnight as it continues to rebound off the mid-November low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends the rebound off the mid-November low, the reaction high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1382.90
Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1424.30

Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1,362.60

First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1330.20
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60



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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Begins Week Much Higher

A weaker equities market and a stronger dollar failed to place downward pressure on crude oil Monday. Crude oil for January delivery gained $1.97 to settle at $85.75 a barrel during a trading day influenced by factors ranging from oil products demand to the release of politically sensitive information attributed to U.S. State Department officials. In the latter case, ongoing fallout from the widespread leaks has heightened perceived geopolitical risks.

Exacerbating the geopolitical situation have been escalating tensions between North and South Korea as well as continued speculation about Europe's debt crises. Although the European Union approved a EUR85 billion bailout for Ireland over the weekend, there are fears that other heavily indebted countries such as Spain and Portugal will be next in line for massive financial aid packages. In addition, tightening inventories of gasoline contributed to oil's rally Monday. December gasoline ended the day seven cents higher at $2.28 a gallon

Oil traded within a range from $83.59 to $85.54. Gasoline, meanwhile, peaked at $2.29 and bottomed out at $2.21. Despite a chillier than normal forecast for the Northeast, January natural gas fell 19 cents to settle at $4.21 per thousand cubic feet. The natural gas futures price fluctuated from $4.17 to $4.49.

Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com


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Matt Nesto: Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks at where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Monday Evening Nov. 29th

The S&P 500 index closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00 would temper the near term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off this month's high, the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1206.00. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 1224.50. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1175.20. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 1169.37.

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends last week's rebounds off the 50% retracement level of the August-November rally crossing at 81.14. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If January extends today's rally, November's high crossing at 89.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.97 would temper the friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 85.83 Second resistance is November's high crossing at 89.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.97. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 80.28.

Natural gas closed sharply lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and turning bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.206 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.515. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.654. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.206. Second support is November's low crossing at 3.853.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of last Friday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1388.10 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off November's high, the reaction low crossing at 1315.60 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1382.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1388.10. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1329.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1315.60.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends this month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.22. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 82.18. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.53. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47.


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Crude Oil Prices Rise to Two Week High on U.S. Retail Sales, Irish Bailout

Crude oil rose to a two week high as U.S. consumers spent more over the Thanksgiving weekend than last year, a sign confidence in the economy is strengthening. Oil climbed above $85 a barrel as the average U.S. shopper increased purchases by 6.4 percent from the 2009 period, a report from the National Retail Federation showed. Crude also advanced amid speculation that colder than normal weather may boost demand for heating fuel in the eastern U.S. and Europe.

“People are looking at a pretty decent retail environment, and that’s giving oil a boost,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “Cold weather is more bullish earlier in the season than later. If people turn on their heaters early and they stay on, that’s good for the season.” Oil for January delivery climbed $1.97, or 2.4 percent, to $85.73 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest settlement since Nov. 11. Futures have gained 13 percent in the past year.

Brent crude for January settlement rose $1.76, or 2.1 percent, to $87.34 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. About 212 million shoppers went to stores and websites over the holiday weekend in the U.S., on average spending $365.34, the Washington based National Retail Federation reported. Temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. will be below normal from Dec. 7 to Dec. 13, according to a forecast issued today by the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland......Read the entire article.


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Gold's Trading Range

Jeff Friedman, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock reveals why he thinks gold prices will reach for $1,380 an ounce.



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Phil Flynn: Bailout Bounce

There is nothing like a big bailout to get energy traders' minds off of the dangerous world we live in. Oil prices are defying a stronger dollar as the market is rallying on the news that Europe finalized a 67.5 billion Euro bailout of Ireland and created a plan that could have bondholders taking haircuts to help pay for their solvency.

Yet oil may also be getting a geo-political bounce as tension rise in the world and I am not just talking about the Korean Peninsula. A revelation from Wiki-Leaks may add to tensions in the Middle East and perhaps even threaten the delicate peaceful balance that sort of exits there. Reuters News reported that, “Saudi King Abdullah has repeatedly urged the United States to attack Iran’s nuclear programs, according to a vast cache of diplomatic cables released on Sunday in an embarrassing leak that undermines U.S. diplomacy.

The more than 250,000 documents, given to five media groups by the whistle blowing website Wiki Leaks, provide candid and at times critical views of foreign leaders as well as sensitive information on terrorism and nuclear proliferation filed by U.S. diplomats, according to The New York Times. The White House condemned the release by Wiki Leaks and said the disclosures may endanger U.S. informants abroad.” It could also create tension in the OPEC cartel as Iran may try to retaliate against Saudi Arabia in some way.

The Saudis already have their hands full fighting Al-Qaeda and other terrorist rightfully fear a nuclear armed state sponsor of terror like Iran. The Saudi King in the leaked memo said that the US should, “cut off the head of the snake”. It’s good to be back! Make sure you are signed up for Phil's daily trade levels! He can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Also make sure you catch Phil on the Fox Business Network where you can see him every day!


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