Market Commentary For Tuesday Morning Crude Oil, Gold, Natural Gas, U.S. Dollar

Crude oil was lower during Mondays overnight session due to light profit taking as it consolidates some of the rally off March's low. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.19 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off March's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 121.09 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 113.46. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 121.09. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 108.71. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.19. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning trading is 110.69.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. If May extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 3.899 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.253 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.206. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.253. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.990. Second support is the 87% retracement level of March's rally crossing at 3.899. Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning trading is 4.083.

Gold was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Last week's breakout above the neckline of March's inverted head and shoulders pattern projects a potential upside target of 1514.90 later this spring. It will take closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1436.10 to confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1478.00. Second resistance is the head and shoulders upside target of 1514.90. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1450.20. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1436.10. Golds pivot point for Tuesday morning trading is 1468.80.

The U.S. Dollar was lower overnight and poised to extend this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening during the day session. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 74.21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.00 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 76.87. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 75.06. Second support is weekly support crossing at 74.21.




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Take a Look at Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

As a follow up to my trade alert for Macro Millionaires to buy the double leveraged oil major ETF (DIG), I thought you’d like to know what my second choice was. There are a lot of belles at the ball, but you can’t dance with all of them. 

While a student at UCLA in the early seventies, I took a World Politics course which required me to pick a country, analyze its economy, and make recommendations for its economic development. I chose Algeria, a country where I had spent the summer of 1968 caravanning among the Bedouins, crawling out of the desert half starved, lice ridden, and half dead.  I concluded that the North African country should immediately nationalize the oil industry, and raise prices from $3/barrel to $10.  I knew that Los Angeles based Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was interested in exploring for oil there, so I sent my paper to the company for review. They called the next day and invited me to their imposing downtown headquarters, then the tallest building in Los Angeles.

I was ushered into the office of Dr. Armand Hammer, one of the great independent oil moguls of the day, a larger than life figure who owned a spectacular impressionist art collection, and who confidently displayed a priceless Fabergé egg on his desk. He said he was impressed with my paper, and then spent two hours grilling me. Why should oil prices go up? Who did I know there? What did I see? What was the state of their infrastructure? Roads? Bridges? Rail lines? Did I see any oil derricks? Did I see any Russians? I told him everything I knew, including the two weeks in an Algiers jail for taking pictures in the wrong places. His parting advice was to never take my eye off the oil industry, as it is the driver of everything else. I have followed that advice ever since. 

When I went back to UCLA I told a CIA friend of mine that I had just spent the afternoon with the eminent doctor (Marsha, call me!). She told me that he had been a close advisor of Vladimir Lenin after the Russian Revolution, had been a double agent for the Soviets ever since, that the F.B.I had known this all along, and was currently funneling illegal campaign donations to President Richard Nixon. Shocked, I kicked myself for going into an interview so ill prepared, and had missed a golden opportunity to ask some great questions. I never made that mistake again. 

Some 40 years later, while trolling the markets for great buying opportunities set up by the BP oil spill, I stumbled across (OXY) once more. (OXY) has a minimal offshore presence, nothing in deep water, and huge operations in the Middle East and South America. It was the first US oil company to go back into Libya when the sanctions were lifted in 2005. (OXY’s) substantial California production is expected to leap to 45% to 200,000 barrels a day over the next four years. Its horizontal multistage fracturing technology will enable it to dominate California shale. The company has raised its dividend for the eighth year in a row, by 15% to 1.60%. Need I say more?   

The clear message that has come out of the BP oil spill is that onshore energy resources are now more valuable than offshore ones. I decided to add it to my model portfolio. Energy is one of a tiny handful of industries I am willing to put my money in these days (technology and commodities are the others), and BP has handed me a rare opportunity to get in as the tightwad that I truly am. 

Oh, and I got an A+ on the paper, and the following year Algeria raised the price of oil to $12.

From the desk of John Thomas

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Friday, April 8, 2011

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Todays Market Update Video

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The U.S. Dollar’s Impact on Price Action in the S&P 500, Gold, & Crude Oil

I was starting to put on my bullish hat on Friday morning when out of the blue an ugly close has forced me to rethink my position. After viewing a few hundred charts, I have determined that while I am still leaning into higher prices at this point in time, I will not totally rule out a rollover on the S&P 500. In coming days the news flow will be extreme and headline risk will be everywhere we look. The S&P 500 has been able to deflect worry for quite some time now and in every case the resiliency is unquestionable.

However, we are nearing the beginning of another earnings season which will start in just a few weeks’ time. First quarter earnings for 2011 are going to be quite interesting and most analysts’ estimates are relatively challenging. Will the rubber hit the road into earnings? Are we about to see a double top play out into earnings, or is there going to be a breakout which will take us to the SPX 1,400 – 1,415 price level?

I know, I ask a lot of questions but quite frankly that is what is running through my head. The SPX is not out of the woods yet, and the price action on Friday indicated that there is some serious supply overhead and two key resistance levels to break through before the SPX gets back to clear blue skies overhead. That being said Chris Vermeulen has caught a nice part of the recent bounce with his subscribers. He does feel the market is about to get choppy but his analysis is pointing to overall higher prices in the coming weeks.

SPX illustrates the two key price levels:

In addition to the uncertainty that earnings season can bring, the primary reason why I am still leaning into a bullish move in the S&P 500 is the recent price action in the U.S. Dollar Index futures. The U.S. Dollar is scheduled to make its 3 year cycle low sometime this spring and the recent price action is indicative that the recent lows may not be the cycle lows. If the U.S. Dollar Index breaks down below recent lows, I would expect to see a nasty sell off.

The U.S. Dollar Index futures daily chart is shown below:

Whether readers believe that we are going to be in an inflationary environment or a deflationary environment is a topic for a different time, but the chart above is undeniable that recently the U.S. Dollar has declined in value and is exhibiting weak price action. Friday morning it looked as though the U.S. Dollar was going to rip higher, but by the end of the day sellers had stepped in and forced the U.S. Dollar into the red for the session. The price action on Friday highlighted the weakness in the U.S. Dollar and the high levels of overhead supply.

If the U.S. Dollar continues to weaken, in the short run I would view this as a positive for the S&P 500, crude oil, and precious metals. If the dollar breaks down to new lows, it should help bouy the S&P 500 and gold prices. Gold has been consolidating for nearly 6 months and a breakout higher from current price levels would make a trip to $1,500 an ounce very likely. I would not be surprised to see gold work even higher than $1,500 an ounce depending on how violent the selloff in the U.S. Dollar might be.

The weekly chart of gold futures is listed below:

I would think that most investors are aware that crude oil futures have been trading higher recently. On Friday oil prices climbed above recent resistance around the $107/barrel price level and reached new recent highs. Members that belong to my paid service enjoyed a relatively low risk options trade that we put on several weeks ago which involved selling cash secured naked puts on $USO. The trade was closed on Friday for a total gain of 85% of the premium that was sold. For long time readers, my stance on energy has been pretty obvious. In the longer term, energy prices almost have to go up as the world’s demand for energy increases while supplies remain flat.

I will likely get involved in another oil trade at some point in the future, but for right now I’m going to wait for a more prudent entry. Based on current price action, it would not surprise me to see crude oil futures test the $110 – $112 per barrel price range in the near future. If the $112/barrel price level is breached to the upside, a test of the $120/barrel price level will be likely.

The weekly chart of oil futures is listed below:

Weekend Trend Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is in an interesting place as far as the price action is concerned. With earnings season rapidly approaching and a possible break down in the U.S. Dollar Index likely, future price action is uncertain. I am leaning into the bullish camp at this point, but that could change rather quickly based on the price action later this week in both the S&P 500 and the U.S. Dollar Index. One thing worth mentioning is that if the U.S. Dollar Index were to bottom around these levels and a bounce higher transpired, it would put negative price pressure on most asset classes. The fact that price action in the U.S. Dollar Index has been weak lately makes me believe a break down is likely, but as most readers know Mr. Market offers few guarantees.

Assuming the U.S. Dollar breaks down, we should see the S&P 500, precious metals, and oil continue to work higher. My eyes are going to be watching the U.S. Dollar Index closely in coming days/weeks. If a breakdown transpires, the potential upside in precious metals and oil could be intense. Ultimately, I remain slightly bullish on stocks and extremely bullish on oil and precious metals. However, my entire thesis could change if the U.S. Dollar Index starts to firm up and begins to work higher. There are simply too many question marks surrounding price action to take on significant amounts of risk at this point in time.

Get all of J.W Jones opinions and analysis @ www.OptionsTradingSignals.com
Get Chris Vermeulens next call on the market, subscribe @ www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com 

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Are Stocks & Commodities About To Start Another Rally?

Over the past couple months everyone seems to have been preparing for a sharp market correction. Crazy part is that the SP500 dropped about 10% from the high and that is a typical bull market correction. The thing is… the stock market has a way of slowly unfolding making it look and feel minor, then before you know it, the correction is over and it’s back to an uptrend. That is kind of how this one unfolded.

The good news is that we caught the low risk portion of the correction locking in a 4.5% drop, and we are now in a long trade and in the money by 2.5% with very little down side risk at this point. Time will tell if this up trend is sustainable or not…

Now, let’s take a look at the charts…

Dollar 60 minute intraday chart
As you can see below the dollar looks to have started a breakdown today. If there is continued selling pressure in the next couple days then expect to stocks and commodities to move higher as the US Dollar drops. It is important to know that when a bullish pattern fails we typically see a very strong reaction in the opposite direction (down) catching the majority off guard and they rush to the door.

SPY Broad Market ETF – Daily Chart
A couple weeks ago we watched the market go into a free fall creating a washout bottom. From there we saw prices bounce back and retake my key moving averages. This gave us a bullish bias and dips should be looked at as buying opportunities. I will admit that stocks still have a long way to go before the masses are convinced. I feel we need to see the February and March highs get taken out first. Once they get taken out there should be strong buying as short covering (protective stops from traders who are short) causes a surge in buying pressure sending stocks sharply higher yet again.

My trading buddy David Banister at Active Trading Partners is starting to see small cap stocks come back to life. Money is starting to flow into these lucrative areas of the market and he is on top of things… This week’s trade is up 20% in less than 24 hours which is very exciting.

Gold Daily Chart
Gold has been moving up this year but the current price action is not really getting me excited to buy just yet. Recently we have seen strong selling volume and very light buying volume. My bias still favors higher prices but there is still a good chance we get another dip in the coming sessions.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel as though the dollar will trigger the next wave of buying in stocks and commodities for the next week or two… We should see the dollar make a clean moving in either direction shortly and that will help guide my analysis, positions and setups. I hope this analysis helps you to see the market from a different perspective.

Just click here if you would like to get Chris Vermeulens mid-week reports and his free newsletter.

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Surprising New Video: Gold or Silver....Which is the Right Precious Metal for You?

Sure, gold dominates the headlines. But which would you rather buy right now, gold or silver?

Gold has incredible amounts of emotional baggage attached to it, while silver is in a different league, at least for the moment. This video will show you two indicators that can help you capture either market when and if the upward trend decides to resume.

With all of the world's troubles, there are plenty of reasons why one would think that both of these markets should be much higher. The question is, why aren't they? We think that the video you're about to watch will help answer some of those questions.

In today's short educational trading video, we put together comparisons between these two markets and why the obvious choice may not be the best choice.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Please feel free to leave a comment and tell us what you think of the video and also what you think of gold and silver.

Watch "Gold or Silver....Which is the Right Precious Metal for You?"

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

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New Report Analyzes Tipping Point of Gold and Equities....Are You Ready?

Equities and Precious Metals are on the edge of another rally and it could start as early as tomorrow.

On March 13th I posted some of my analysis online showing how the market was trading at a key pivot point and that a sharp price movement was about to unfold. I also provided everyone with the direction in favor which played out perfectly catching a 4.5% in three days.

As of today we are getting the same setup I saw on March 13th [see "It Looks Like Crash or Crush Time For Equities and Gold"] but this time it’s pointing to higher prices. Take a quick look at the charts I was looking at for both the SP500 and gold and you will notice that the SP500 and gold both moved to the support levels before starting to bounce.

While we caught the move down on the SP500 playing the SDS Double leveraged inverse fund we did not take part in falling gold prices. Reason being, there is so much fear in the market and the amount of surprise news popping up each week I don’t think shorting precious metals is a safe call. Rather I am looking for a pullback to cleanse the holders of the commodity then I will buy once price confirms the continuation pattern has completed.

Now, stepping forward to this week’s price action

SPY Daily Chart
We can see in the chart below that price is currently testing a key resistance level. Before the week is over we could see some big price movement equities. I need to see what happens tomorrow but I have a feeling we could see a breakout to the upside for a long position.

Gold Miners Fund Daily Chart
Gold stocks have be under performing the price of bullion for a few months but it looks as though they could be starting a sizable rally. If gold stocks continue to move sharply higher out of this pattern, then it’s a positive sign that gold and silver bullion will both continue to move up.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, stocks and commodities may have shaken the weak positions out of the market during the recent pullback in price. Things could be ready to start another multi month rally and trade setups. Keep your eyes on the charts....

Just Click Here if you would like to get these reports sent to your inbox each Sunday & Wednesday. Check out The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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“Day Trading Made Simple” Now Playing on Trend TV

William Greenspan has over 155 consecutive winning months using his “day trading” system. As a day trader since the early 70s, he has walked in the pits of the CBOT and CME practicing his philosophy of making “a million dollars on a million trades, not a million dollars on one trade.”

Greenspan shares his strategy as well as best practices for successful trading on Trend TV…

“Discipline. That’s the key to success in so many aspects of life and it’s the main ingredient of any successful trading plan. But, what does discipline really mean to an intraday trader?
Discipline means taking small quick losses and letting your profits ride. That’s the key to all successful trading. Discipline means using stop loss orders on every trade to limit your losses and moving your stop loss orders to protect your profit.

That’s kinda like grooming your position. When you have a profit in a trade, you should take your stop loss order and move it first to your break even point, and then if your trade continues to trend your way, to always protect your profit along the way. Three, discipline means following all the buy and sell signals that your trading plan or system of trade has to offer you.

In all trading you must expect losses and you must accept them gracefully, because it may take only one mistake to wipe out the profits of ten winning trades…”

To watch the full video with William Greenspan, please visit Trend TV. Once you receive your password, you can visit Trend TV anytime and watch new videos as they are added.

We hope you will be able to use Greenspan’s experience to grow your profits and protect you from that one big mistake.

Just Click Here to take advantage of everything Trend TV has to offer!



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How to Gauge the Equities Market so You Don’t Buy to Early!

From Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy......

Over the years I have found an indicator/trading tool which I find help spot intermediate trend reversals. I am going to quickly cover in this report. As most of you know the 20 simple moving average is a great gauge for telling you if you should be looking to buy the dips or sell the bounces. It’s an indicator I keep on the broad market charts like the SP500, Dow and NASDAQ.

The chart below shows the percentage of stocks trading above the 20 moving average. When this indicator falls below 20%, I make sure I start to protect my short positions with more aggressive protective stops and keep an eye on short term sentiment, volume ratios, options and price action as a bottom can take place at any time and very quickly. Bottoms tend to be more of an event happening quickly with a washout/panic selling day followed by a sharp rally, while intermediate market tops drag out taking weeks if not months to roll over and are very difficult to trade which is what we have been experiencing so far this year.

Mr. Jones once of my trading buddies who focuses strictly on Options Trading has been cleaning up with the current volatility making 21%, 50% and 67% returns on his last threes trades. This guy loves volatility and always seems to have an options strategy for every situation the market dishes out. Check out his service at OptionsTradingSignals.com

As you can see this indicator is currently trading in the lower reversal zone and I feel a bottom will form before March is over.

SP500 Daily Chart
The SP500 continued lower today, which is what I mentioned, would most likely take place in my pre market video this morning. The trading session was a roller coaster with news on Japans reactors causing large waves of buy and selling throughout the day. I have not seen traders follow the news so close like this in some time… Everyone has their fingers hovering over the buy and sell button these days.

Looking at the bottom indicator which is my gauge of panic selling within the market, it has yet to close above 15 which is the minimum number I typically look for before I start zooming into the intraday charts for a long entry (market bottom). We still could see much lower prices before we see that.

Gold 4 Hour Chart
This chart is the same one I showed in my Sunday night report, which explained why gold should test the $1380-1390 level in the coming days. We did see that unfold this week but now the chart is pointing to possibly even lower prices with a support range between $1360-1380 taking place this week. Keep an eye on it as it should be swift if it does occur.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, we are finally getting the correction everyone has been waiting for and now that it’s started and we are short, we must start watching closely for a bottom because they can take place very quickly.

My focus is still on playing the short side but I have my antennas up just in case signs of a bottom start showing up.

If you would like to get my free weekly reports just Click Here to visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com


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It's Here....Your Official Invitation to MarketClub TV

This is it, the moment every trader has been waiting for....

After weeks of planning and preparation, our friends at MarketClub have officially announced the launch of MarketClub TV.

And you are officially invited to join them ONLINE for the premiere episode:

Join us ONLINE for the premiere episode of MarketClub TV at 7:00pm eastern, Thursday, March 17th

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You are going to both love and be blown away by MarketClub TV and the LIVE, INTERACTIVE, wealth-building tips, news, insights and money making plays it gives you.

Yes, that's right, I said 'interactive'. Each week Adam Hewison and his team at MarketClub will...

* Discuss the biggest movers and shakers of the week
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MarketClub TV will be broadcast LIVE, online Thursday evenings at 7:00pm eastern starting with the premiere episode is this Thursday, March 17th.

PLUS, to kick things off with a bang, one lucky viewer will win a 1 year membership to MarketClub. Everyone who registers to watch Thursday's premiere episode will automatically be entered into the drawing. And the winner will be announced LIVE during the show.

Just you wait and see, Click to check out MarketClub TV. It is going to rock your world! See you there!


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