Investors are Fearful and That Means Higher Prices are Around the Corner

Everyone knows people make mistakes when rushed to do something or if they are scared of something bad happening. We also know fear and greed is what moves the market each month, week, day and tick… So when the majority of investors are selling their shares at the same time you must recognize the psychology behind it and prepare for a low risk trading opportunity in the days that follow.

Stepping back and looking at the general vibe in the financial arena we hear about Quantitative Easing II coming to an end which should help the dollar gain strength again. A rising dollar means lower stock and commodity prices. Also keep in mind the United States is in so much trouble they will always have quantitative easing even if they are not calling it QE, that’s my opinion anyways…

In addition, everyone was talking about the saying “sell in May and go away”. Take a look at the chart of the SP500. The first session in May was the highest point and the SP500 has only gone down since then. The chart below shows my fear indicator and with the masses all selling in the month of May I have to think it’s getting ready to bottom and start another 5-6% rally from down here. Keep in mind I am more neutral on the overall market for the longer term. In the next month or two I figure we see higher prices from here but come August we could see the dollar bottom and stocks sell off in a more significant manner.

Last but not least, gold and silver…
Looking back in time and reviewing inter-market relationships with gold and silver I feel more and more investors are becoming bearish and moving their money into safe havens like gold and silver. Recently we saw a sharp pullback in both gold and silver. The price and volume action that took place was a clear sign of distribution selling meaning big money players taking money out of those investments. I see this pattern happen in stocks, indexes and commodities all the time and it generally warrants caution!

My trading buddy JW Jones over at OptionsTradingSignals.com has some very exciting ways to profit from these choppy market conditions with limited risk. If you are into options then check it out.

Typically we will see a few more new highs being reached which are quickly followed with strong selling. What happens is that the big money players allow the price to make a new high and that hits the headline news, CNBC, BNN etc…. drawing in new buyers and a surge of volume for the big money guys to sell into and exit their positions at the top. It also helps cover up their large volume selling.

Below is what I am thinking will take place in gold this summer.

Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, I feel the dollar will continue to slide lower, both stocks and commodities should have some strength over the next 1-2 months but after that all bets are off and it will be time to re-evaluate things.

The next week in the market will most likely make or break this outlook as the overall market is trading at a tipping point. Let’s see how this week pans out then take another look at the charts.

Get Chris Vermeulens trading reports free each week here The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

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John Thomas on Selling USO Short Position

From the desk of   John Thomas The Mad Hedge  Fund Trader Friday, June 03, 2011

I am going to use the huge spike down in oil prices this morning triggered by a disastrous May nonfarm payroll report to take profits on my short position in the oil ETF (USO). Specifically, I am selling my August $37 puts at $1.60, the price I am seeing my screen. The (USO) itself is now trading at $38.90. I initially bought these puts on May 16 for $1.55, when oil was at $100.50. Within days, crude fell to $95.50, boosting the puts to over $2.00, and I should have taken profits there. But I didn’t. Crude then rebounded to $103, knocking the puts back down to $1.00. This morning, crude is back down to $98.25, a dip of $2.50 since I started this trade, and the puts are essentially unchanged, the profit entirely eaten up by time decay. That is the lesson with trading these out of the money options. You have to grab the profits when you can before they go up in smoke. The August options only have 2 ½ months left in them, and time decay is starting to accelerate. For the notional $100,000 portfolio with a 5% weighting, I am booking a profit of $160 (32 X $.05 X 100). This amounts to a 3.2% profit on the position, which adds 3 basis points to your annual return. I’ll be using the next serious rally in oil to reestablish my short, given the dismal economic prospects we are now facing.

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New Video: Just How Bad of a Position are the Financials in?

It would seem as though the financial markets, particularly certain financial stocks, are incredibly vulnerable. The erratic recovery we saw from the lows in March of 2009 maybe in jeopardy. In fact, with many financial stocks making new lows for the year, it does not argue well for the future.

Also, there's been a lot of prognostication about the end of America as you know it. "Kiss America Goodbye," and "The Death of America," are just a few of the wild headlines that are out there. This video takes you to the next level and offers you a concrete path on what to do to protect your capital and nest egg.

This video is available for viewing free of charge with no registration requirements. I highly recommend you take just a few minutes of your day to watch this video. Save yourself from a tremendous amount of frustration and loss of capital with these easy to understand steps.

Want to trade like Adam? Click here for FREE lessons.

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Market Sentiment and Volume Reach Extreme Panic Levels

It was a crazy session as the stock market slid over 2% on heavy volume. This type of price action means fear has taken control of masses and they are unloading (selling their stocks) in anticipation of much lower prices.

Trading off extreme levels of fear can be very rewarding if done right. That’s because fear is the most powerful reaction we as humans have and it’s somewhat predictable. Fear can make people do crazy and or stupid things and it’s these extreme reaction which investors do in the market that lead to great trading opportunities. Buying into fear and selling into greed is what I focus on.

Gold and Silver Showing Greed and Fear
For example, if we take a look at the 4 hour chart of gold and silver you will see how investments which have a large amount of speculation like Silver move the opposite to what other related investments like gold are doing.

The first chart which is gold, shows how today’s fear had investors moving into this shiny safe haven. Silver on the other hand has been the investment of choice for every Tom, Dick and Harry trying to play the popular headline investment. So on a day like today when prices start to slide in the stock market these speculative holders of silver get scared and dump (sell) their position in stocks and silver. 

The problem with silver is that the market is still small and its does not take many people hitting the sell button to send it 5% lower which is what took place today. This is one sign which is telling me traders are getting scared of a market sell off.

Evidence #2 Showing Signs Of Fear
These data points below clearly show sellers were in control today. I like to look at the NYSE because it holds all the big brand name stocks which the masses like to buy when they feel lucky. So when I see this many traders selling and so few buying I know the masses are dumping shares and going to a cash.

The NASDAQ had 10 shares being sold to every one share being bought which is half the fear level of what the NYSE and that makes good sense. The NASDAQ has many smaller companies which the masses just don’t know about or own so there was not as much selling taking place on that exchange. So brand name stocks getting dumped all at once is another sign of extreme fear hitting the market.

Evidence #3 Showing Signs Of Fear
This chart below provides the momentum of the market. I think of it as the rubber band effect. If the market selling momentum is strong enough then it pulls this indicator down to a level which it cannot go much further before it gives way and moves back a neutral or positive extreme level. This little hidden gem of an indicator can help time entry and exit points with ease once you understand it. Currently its telling us that a pause or bounce is likely to happen tomorrow.

Evidence #4 Showing Signs of Fear and an Oversold Market Condition
Take a look at the 10 minute SPY (SP500) chart below. Simple visual analysis shows that today’s strong selling which has brought the market down into a support zone should provide a pause or a bounce very soon. The question is how big will the bounce or rally be?

Given all the confirming is looking ready for a bounce and I feel we could be nearing not a bounce but an intermediate bottom and higher prices going forward. But if we break strongly below this support level then all bets are off and much lower prices should occur.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, today’s sharp move lower has put the market in a short term oversold condition. Meaning, a bounce is very likely to take place within the next 1-3 sessions. With the masses selling all their positions in stocks and commodities it generally takes 1-3 days after a day like this for the selling pressure to dissipate and for value buyers to step back into the market providing support.

I think both stocks and commodities will strengthen in the next few days and we will see if the market can get some traction and start a new rally. But until everyone has sold out of the market giving their shares to the big money (smart money) at a sharp discount I feel we have a rough road ahead.

Get Chris Vermeulens trading reports free each week, just visit The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

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Rigzone: Crude Oil Climbs to a Three Week High in Tuesdays Trading

Crude futures climbed to a three week high Tuesday as concerns eased over Europe's debt crisis.

July's oil prices gained $2.11 Tuesday before settling at $102.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The greenback fell against the euro as the European Union debated on sending additional financial aid to boost Greece's economy. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said a new aid package will be decided on by the end of June. A weaker dollar increases the appeal of the dollar denominated commodities making it cheaper for foreign buyers.

After noticing a 40 barrel spill at a pump station in Kansas, TransCanada temporary closed down its Keystone pipeline further pressuring oil prices Tuesday. The Keystone pipeline carries half a million barrels of crude per day from Alberta to Cushing, Okla., the largest oil storage hub in the U.S.

Oil prices peaked at $103.39 a barrel and bottomed out at $99.60 on Tuesday.

Natural gas for July delivery traded up Tuesday, adding 15 cents to settle at $4.67 per thousand cubic feet. Prices rose to their highest in four weeks on forecasts predicting above average weather. Hotter weather increases demand for fuel which is required for air conditioning. The intraday range for natural gas was $4.525 to $4.71 per thousand cubic feet.

Gasoline prices also ended higher Tuesday. After fluctuating between $3.07 and $3.165, gasoline settled at $3.15 a gallon, 5.84 cents higher from the previous trading session.


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Morgan Stanley Report....the Future of American Domestic Energy Production Lies in Oil

A new report out from Morgan Stanley on the "renaissance" of the American oil industry argues that -- contra the natural gas bulls, the future of American domestic energy production lies in oil.

Specifically, they argue that technological innovation is now allowing for oil extraction from previously un-economical shale deposits. This is game changing. The report is huge, but these four charts really stand out.

The changeover is happening NOW.

Meanwhile, and this is quite eye popping, after a 20 year decline, domestic oil production has finally had positive years.

And finally, if key shale oil regions pan out, the impact in just the next few years could be significant.

Posted courtesy of The Business Insider


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Rigzone: Crude Oil Gains; Natural Gas Surges

Crude oil for July delivery entered the holiday weekend in the black, gaining 36 cents to settle at $100.59 a barrel. Oil received a boost from a weaker dollar, which made the commodity a more attractive buy for investors holding currencies other than the greenback. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar's value against foreign currencies, fell more than 0.8 percent Friday. Crude oil traded within a range from $100.04 to $101.24 Friday. For the week, oil is up 1.1 percent.

Memorial Day marks the traditional start of summer in the U.S., and summerlike temperatures should prevail throughout the Midwest, South, and East during the next two weeks. As a result, investors expect stronger demand for air conditioning and gas fired power. Natural gas consequently ended the day 18 cents higher at $4.52 per thousand cubic feet. The July contract price peaked at $4.56 and bottomed out at $4.365. Since last Friday, natural gas has gained 6.9 percent. June gasoline settled four cents higher at $3.09 a gallon. The futures price fluctuated from $3.04 to $3.08, and gasoline is up 5.1 percent for the week.


Posted courtesy of Rigzone.Com


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Dan Dicker: Oil's Endless Bid

We all know Dan from his appearances on CNBC and The Street.Com but don't hold that against him. Dan's insight into the world of trading crude oil and natural gas is great for the "home Gamer" that needs help trading these commodities using tickers they can both buy and understand.

The price of oil is negatively impacting both companies and consumers. In Oil's Endless Bid, taming the Unreliable Price of Energy to Secure Our Economy, energy analyst Dan Dicker recalls his experiences as an oil trader and reveals the changes that have taken place in the oil markets during the past twenty years, and particularly the last five, as investment banks, energy hedge funds, and managed futures funds have come to dominate energy trading and wreak havoc on prices.

Get started trading crude oil today, just click here to order your copy of "Oil's Endless Bid"



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How Many Times Have we Seen This Movie.....Goldman Sachs says Oil Going Much Higher!

Analysts from Goldman Sachs are declaring that oil prices will likely increase in the near to intermediate term. Price action so far on Tuesday has just about totally negated the nasty red candle from Monday. Oil continues to consolidate near the lows and will eventually either breakdown to new lows and possibly test the 200 period moving average or we will see an extension higher to the $103 – $105 / barrel price level. The daily chart of oil futures is shown below:

In the longer term, we remain extremely bullish on energy as the fundamentals indicate that oil demand will likely continue to rise while supply levels remain flat or begin to increase. Oil prices are likely to go much higher than what most analysts are expecting. For now, I’m going to be watching the key support level illustrated above. If oil prices continue to consolidate at these levels a breakout is nearly inevitable. The question remains which way will oil break?



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Where Now for Gold and Silver?

Well, that was fun wasn’t it gang? A huge drop in silver from $49.75 to the $32 ranges after 8 months of rallying from 19 to near 50. A 150% gain in Silver in eight Fibonacci months, sounds like a pretty overbought situation. Gold in the same time frame lagged badly, but all of that was predicted by me late last August due to the consolidating “B wave” in Silver that was preceding what I felt would be a “massive rally” in the metal. Quite simply I said, investors will view silver as “cheap” relative to Gold and they will buy it instead of gold. 

I realize that makes no logical sense, but since when are the herd behaviors ever logical?

What everyone wants to know still is what is next for both Gold and Silver in their bull markets? When dealing with human behavioral patterns, it’s as much art as science, so I do my best to ferret out the coming pivot highs and lows, and here is where I am at right now.

Gold should work higher in a current “5th wave up” from the $1462 pivot lows to a bogey target of $1627, and once that is hit or close investors should be enjoying rallies in the Gold and Silver stocks but looking to trim back positions aggressively assuming I’m right. Where that forecast could go wrong is if we close much below $1440 on spot gold before attacking and piercing through the old $1577 highs. 

As this final thrust up completes, not too many people will be on board because they all just got spooked out of the market with the silver crash. I expect a bunch to come in near the end and they may get smoked as Gold peaks out and reverses hard into a stronger correction than what we just saw. My subscribers will be informed at every pivot along the way as to the best action to take.

Silver will have the potential now to rally back up to the $38.70-$41.50 ranges if I’m right about the Gold forecast. We had an interesting retracement in Silver that was between two Fibonacci pivots of 61.8% and 78.6%. Often in my forecasting career, I have seen retracements that end up around 71% of the prior major wave pattern up and therefore they throw off many Fibonacci watchers who are looking for that lower or higher level to make their entries. This is partially why I think Silver has bottomed out in price, but traders are hesitant to make a bold move here.

Silver and Gold have another three Fibonacci years left in a 13 Fibonacci year bull market cycle, so other than some intermediate term tops and bottoms and chopping action, I am looking for much higher prices by the year 2014 in both metals.

Below is my outlook for Gold intermediately:

If you would like to be informed 3-5 times per week on SP 500, Gold, and Silver intermediate direction and price movements in advance… take a look at Market Trend Forecast.Com today for a 24 hour 33% off coupon, and/or sign up for our occasional free updates.

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