Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Shows Signs of Strength

The past couple months (May and June) have been tough on precious metals and crude oil. But recent price action shows that buyers are stepping back into the market buying up these commodities once again.

Let’s take a quick look at the charts…

Gold Futures Daily Chart:
As you can see from the chart below, gold is making a new high. The big question is if it will do what it has done many times in the past, which is make a new higher for only a few days to get the general public (herd) long, only to then get sold into and come back down? The next few sessions will give us a better feel for this breakout/rally.

Silver futures Daily Chart:
Silver on the other hand has not performed as well as its yellow sister. Rather we are seeing a base being formed. The exciting thing about base patterns is that the larger and longer the base takes to form, the larger the potential move once a breakout occurs.

Crude Oil Hourly Chart:
Crude oil looks to be forming a base and or inverse head & shoulders pattern. Both these patterns point to higher prices with a price target around the $110-112 area.

Mid-Week Trend Report:
In short, I feel commodities are now in the spot light and where investors will be looking to put their money to work over the next couple weeks as the falling dollar directly helps boost their prices. The equities market continues to be volatile with large waves of buying and selling almost hitting the them every trading session. During key pivot points in the market we know pricing for investments get a little crazy at times and we manage positions accordingly and anticipate some moves.

That’s all for now, but if you would like to get our pre-market video analysis each morning and intraday updates along with trade alerts be sure to join our premium service at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

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Markets Hit Record High Prices For Gold!

The big news today has got to be record high prices for gold. As you know we’ve been very positive on this market longer term and we believe that the market was going to make its highs at the end of Q3. Today’s action certainly confirms that this market is moving from a very powerful energy field, which we have explained in many of our previous videos. Silver followed suit, but has not made an all time high. Percentage wise today’s move in silver is beating out the move in gold.

The rally in the equity markets is not as unexpected, as we thought that we would see a bump up as we described in our previous videos earlier this week. We expect that the current rally in the S&P will run out of steam right around 1333 to 1338.

We also suspect that this market is building the right shoulder of a massive head and shoulders top. It seems hard to believe that the precious metals and the equity markets are all going up at the same time, but that’s what’s happening right now.

Now, let’s see how we can protect and make your money grow......

S&P 500

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 85
The symmetry of the S&P is striking and should not be ignored as we could be making a right shoulder of a much larger head and shoulders formation. The Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode and we are expecting resistance around the 1333 to 1338 levels. Look for support to come into this market around the 1313 level.

SILVER

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Long-term and Intermediate term traders should now be long this market. We still believe that silver can go higher. Look for support into this market at 34.75.

GOLD

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 100
Record high prices for gold and we continue to believe that gold is building a long term energy field to go much higher later in the year. Long-term trends with the Trade Triangles are positive along with intermediate term trends which are now positive.

CRUDE OIL

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Negative
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = – 55
The $99.50 level is an important resistance level for this market. Overall the Trade Triangles continue to reflect a mixed trading range environment.

DOLLAR INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 75
This index remains below its 200 day moving average. The longer term trend for the dollar index is positive based on our Trade Triangle technology. Resistance remains between 77.00.

REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB COMMODITY INDEX

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

This index flashed a weekly green Trade Triangle today and remains over its 200 day moving average. We expect that we will see more backing and filling in this market before it starts to move higher. Look for support at 340 and again at 338.50. Major Resistance at 352.

As always, we rely on our market proven Trade Triangle technology for catching the big moves. Here's a video update for Wednesday July 13th.

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Learning How To Trade The GDX Fibonacci Butterfly

One of the many useful characteristics of options is that the astute trader can design strategies to capture profit from predicted price action forecasts from a wide variety of technical indicators. I think it is helpful to have knowledge of several approaches to technical analysis in order to recognize patterns that other traders may not see.

Today I would like to introduce the topic of a technical pattern that is not commonly discussed and demonstrate its ability to give a high probability trade in a liquid underlying, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF, symbol $GDX.

The basis of the trade I would like to discuss is that of a Fibonacci butterfly, in this case, a bearish Fibonacci butterfly. This pattern is derived from price relationships and the proclivity of these relationships to form predictable zones of price resistance and reversals.

The subject of the Fibonacci sequence, its origin, and potential applications is well beyond the scope of this posting. Suffice it to say that the numerical relationships found within the Fibonacci series have wide distributions across a host of natural relationships. For those interested in learning more about these relationships and their derivations, any internet search engine will point to a huge trove of supplementary information.

The Fibonacci butterfly was best described initially by legendary trader Larry Pesavento. It represents one of two well defined Fibonacci reversal patterns that include both the Gartley and the butterfly. For those traders just beginning to wrap their heads around option terminology, I should point out that this butterfly is completely unrelated to the family of butterflies an option trader may elect to use as a trade structure choice. Don’t let your butterflies get confused!

These are reversal patterns and identify high probability areas of change in price direction. The pattern is stereotypical and consists of: an impulsive initial move in price, either up or down, often including gap movement (the X:A thrust) ; retracement of that initial move (A:B counterthrust) to the 0.618 to around the 0.786 Fibonacci level; retracement of that retracement (the B:C secondary thrust); and the final retracement (the C:D counterthrust) which results in completion of the pattern.

The final C:D leg for a butterfly pattern completes when price reaches the zone between 1.272 and 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the initial price movement. Once this final C:D leg has completed within this defined Fibonacci zone, the predicted price movement is in the direction of the initial X:A movement.

It is important to await confirmatory triggers prior to initiating trades from these patterns because these patterns may fail and failed patterns very often lead to explosive moves in the direction of the failure.

Now, if your head has not yet exploded, and you are still reading, it is much easier to understand with a picture.

The horizontal lines with numbers represent the various Fibonacci retracement levels that are important. For this pattern, focus on the B point a bit above the 0.786 retracement of the initial thrust, and the D point of pattern completion between the 1.272 and 1.618 levels. These Fibonacci tools are present in all modern charting packages and make calculation of critical levels instantaneous.

Triggers usually are taken from the next lower time frame. In this case, dropping from the illustrated 60 minute time frame in which the pattern completed, a bearish engulfing candlestick completed on the next 30 minute candle. The bearish trade was triggered.

The next decision was the option structure that would be most efficient to capture the expected move. A major factor to consider in this decision was that the July options cycle was only 9 days from expiration. The worst performing trade was to buy out-of-the-money puts because of the rapid time decay the position would suffer.

I also considered a put butterfly structure, but knew that adverse price action this close to expiration could be difficult to withstand. Remember that butterflies react strongly to price change close to expiration because gamma becomes quite large. Another structure I considered was that of a calendar trade, selling the weekly option and buying the monthly.

In the end, I decided to use the structure of a put vertical illustrated below. In this case I used a conservative structure, buying an in-the-money put, the 58 strike, and selling an at-the-money 56 strike. The chart below illustrates the profit and loss of a spread constructed in a 10×10 (10 Long July GDX 58 Puts / 10 Short July GDX 56 Puts) setup.

The trade did not last long; I closed it approximately 24 hours later on stronger than expected price action and failure to get rapid follow through on the completed bearish butterfly pattern. The result of the trade was a return of 16.5% on invested capital.

Recognition of patterns not routinely followed by the investing herds can often lead to solid risk / reward trades. Using options in a knowledgeable fashion to structure these trades can further increase your probability of success.

Take a look at J.W. Jones website Options Trading Signals.Com  today for a 24 hour 66% off coupon and get J.W.'s call in your inbox and so much more!

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U.S. Dollar Could Send Stocks and Commodities Higher

It’s been an exciting couple months as stocks and commodities have moved like they are a roller coaster at a theme park. We all know every good roller coaster has a few monster hills which make their clients scream in fear/excitement that’s what it’s all about!

But if we step back into the financial world where fear/excitement cost people month it is not so fun. Look at the US Dollar index you will see three monster hills which investors/traders have just finished riding. These quick price movements were enough to make most traders hit the sell button in fear of wilder price action. This is the type of price action which can whip-saw traders in and out of positions for several back to back losses.

Having multiple losing trades back to back triggers a series of events causing most traders to lose large percentages of their trading capital.

First the trader starts to become frustrated and starts second guessing themselves. This causes revenge trading meaning they start to trade more frequently without proper setups and risk reward levels. Which lowers their confidence, while increasing the rate of their trading. This generally makes for a blowout trading session or week. Meaning they lose 20-50+% of their trading capital in a very short period of time all because they are trading off pure emotions and not clear trading rules.

Avoiding roller coaster rides with your trading capital/emotions is one of the things I do well. I do this by focusing on the US Dollar index because it plays a very large roll in what both stocks and commodities do. I analyze the dollar trends and use its price action to help gauge how big and long its next trend is. If the dollar index looks as though it may top, then I will be looking to buy/ accumulate some stocks and commodities simply because a falling dollar helps boost the value of stocks and commodities.

Take a look at the dollar index below. Just a quick glance and you get a gut feeling that it’s trying to top and could have another sharp sell off in the next 1-3 days.

Now if we take a look at the SP500 daily chart and use the dollar index analysis above, I would expect to see stock prices pause or pullback for a few days while the dollar tops and then look for a reversal pattern on the shorter time frame charts to add more to our position before stocks continues higher.

Looking at the price of gold we can see that it has been trading in a large sideways range since May and also near a resistance trend line (red line). We could easily see a 1-3 day pause/pullback in gold while it builds energy for another surge higher. Which could take it through the resistance level.

Pre-Week Market Trend Analysis:
In short, we feel the dollar is trying to put in a top which could take a few days to play out. If that unfolds then we should start seeing stocks pullback to support levels and then bounce with rising volume.

That’s all for now, but if you would like to get our pre-market video analysis each morning and intraday updates along with trade alerts be sure to join my premium service at The Gold and Oil Guy.Com

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Unemployment is up, and our Government has no Plan "B"

It was a shocker. We only created 18,000 jobs and unemployment jumped up to 9.2%, how can we say things are getting better when here we are basically two years after the low in the equity markets with unemployment still stubbornly stuck over 9% and probably going back over 10%.

Folks, there is no “Plan B”. For the past two years, this administration has declared warfare on business, particularly small businesses, the folks who actually create jobs in this country!

It is amazing to me that they could be so blinded with their political philosophy that they have actually forgotten that there are real people out of work that need jobs. Small businesses, the very people who create 70% of all jobs in America, are being punished as the current administration wants to tax them more. How stupid can things get. Oh, they can get pretty stupid.

As I mentioned yesterday in my 1 p.m. update, I felt that the S&P was in thin air and also as cyclic high. I think we could be seeing the start of a 15 to 20 day correction. We also recommended taking some money off the table in our crude oil trade which also went very well.
As mentioned earlier I’m doing this report a little bit earlier as I feel today could be an important turning point in the markets.

Now let’s see how we can protect and make your money grow. Click here to watch the video.

One of things we like to do on Friday is check the markets for 52 week highs and 52 week lows. This is easy to do with MarketClub’s SmartScan technology. Here’s how you do it:
First, go to the SmartScan tab and choose 52 week highs,then filter the results (watch video) using criteria that matches our own personality and price points.

Now, you want to do this starting around 3:30 to 3:45 on Fridays. This will show you the markets that are really strong. The idea is to go with the flow for the weekend and take profits on the opening on Tuesday morning.

It’s a simple approach and it’s worked out very well in the past. I suggest you do this and track it yourself for a while just to get a feel of the concept. We will also be doing the same thing and recapping the markets that came up on our 5 p.m. show on Wednesday. You wont want to miss this recap as it will be an eye opener for you.

If you haven’t yet had a chance to take our FREE 10 part trading course.

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Gold and Crude Oil Showing Signs of Strength and Higher Prices

This has been an interesting year for both gold and oil. There has been wild price swings due to extreme political, economic and weather events round the globe making these commodities a little more difficult to trade than normal. That being said if we look at the charts it appears we could be at the beginning stages of another major rally in both stocks and commodities.

Let’s just jump right into the charts…..

Gold Miner Stock Bullish Percent Index:
If you take a look at the bullish percent chart for gold miner stocks it appears that stocks are trading at the lower reversal zone. The last time we had a similar setup like this gold rallied 15% and gold stocks jumped nearly 25% over the following 3 months.

Gold Bullion 4 Hour Futures Chart:
This chart of gold shows us that a bottom formed in early July and that buyers are now in control. It looks as though we are getting the first impulse leg which should top out around $1550. After that I would expect some type of pause or pullback before price continues higher. This is also when I will be looking to enter precious metals as long as price and volume action confirm this upward thrust.

Energy Sector Bullish Percent Index:
While these bullish percent charts are not the best for entry points in the market, they do warn us of possible tops or bottoms. This allows us to adjust our protective stops, entry prices and or profit targets. This BP chart of the energy sector looks as though it’s trying to bottom. I would like to see the June high get taken out on both the BP chart and XLE etf before thinking energy is in a new uptrend.

Crude Oil 4 Hour Futures Chart:
This chart shows the inverse head and shoulders pattern which formed over the past couple weeks. Simple analysis provides us with a short term bullish pattern and price target.

Mid-Week Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel the US dollar is about to start heading lower once again and that will help boost stocks and commodities. Most stocks and commodities are trading just under key resistance levels so the next couple trading sessions are important. We need to see another push higher for these resistance levels to be taken out. If that happens then the sky is the limit for the next rally.

Also, I would like to see the energy and financial sectors start to rally here and Also we need to see the US dollar head back down in the coming sessions.

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Metals Market Takes Center Stage in Wednesday Trading

The stars of the show today have to be the metal markets. Gold has rallied $50 from the low that we witnessed last week and is up over 1% today. Silver is even better with a rally of 1.82%. It seems as though the global anxiety factor is creeping back into the markets and people are getting more and more distrustful of what’s going on in the world.

The question is, can the Democrats and Republicans stop their bickering long enough and come to an agreement on the debt ceiling? Eventually, I’m sure there will be some sort of compromise that will probably make both the liberals and the conservatives mad. It’s really time to stop all this bickering and start making some hard and difficult choices. I’m not sure the current set of politicians have the chutzpah to do this.

The banks stocks took a little hit today and it’s clear that these stocks are not out of the woods yet.

Let’s take a look at how things are shaping up today and go to the charts to see how we can protect and make your money grow. Click here to watch the video.

S&P 500: +100. The $1,340 level is proving to be the decisive place for the S&P 500. We’re now at the top of the Donchian channel and the market is very overbought. We expect to see more two-way action in the days ahead and eventually this market to roll over and possibly form the right shoulder of the head and shoulders formation. Although, trade triangles remain in a positive mode and that should not be ignored. Look for support to come into this market around the $1,300 level.

Silver: +75. Silver will put in another positive performance today moving up over the $36 an ounce level. This market is fast approaching the top of the Donchian trading channel and also moving into overbought territory. Our trade triangle technology is mixed at the moment with the longer-term trend being positive and the intermediate term trend being negative. Intermediate term traders should be on the sidelines in this market. We still believe that silver is building a major energy base to go higher.

Gold: +75. Gold has rallied over $50 an ounce in the space of four trading days and is acting like it is making a major energy base to push higher later in the quarter. Resistance starts around the $1,540 range. Long-term trends with the trade triangles are positive while intermediate term trends are neutral.

Crude Oil: -55. It looks as though the crude oil market has reached a level of equilibrium with the $98 a barrel price acting as some short term resistance point. We are still looking for this market to potentially challenge the triple digits over $100 a barrel. The market is however overbought so we may see some more two-way action. We are still watching the bullish engulfing line from last week and a higher close this week confirms that a bottom is in place.

The Dollar Index: -65. The market bounce we described in yesterday’s 1 PM update for the dollar index took place with the dollar over the $75 level for the first time in six days. This market remains trapped in a broad trading range, however the longer term trend for the dollar index is still negative according to our trade triangle technology. Resistance remains between $75 and $76.

Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index: -65. This index is back to the midpoint of the Donchian trade channel and has just moved into an overbought situation. We expect that we will see more backing and filling in this market before it starts to move higher. If crude oil goes to $100 a barrel, then we are probably looking at this index around $350. Look for support at $335 and again at $330.

Just Click Here to watch our most current video for Wednesday July 6th.


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SP500, Financials and Tech Stocks Playing off of our June 19th Article

A couple weeks back on June 19th Chris Vermeulen posted an analysis on how the stock market was bottoming and that we needed a couple key sectors to participate before we would get a solid bounce. You can quickly review the charts at  "Is This Market Flashing a Buy Signal or Another Market Collapse"

Today’s report plays directly off the June 19th analysis showing you the price movement from then on.

SP500 – SPY ETF Daily Chart
As you can see during early June the market became volatile with a broadening formation. This type of price action is an early warning that a trend reversal is near. It was only two days later when we saw stocks make a new high, which is the first ingredient for a trend reversal to take place. But once a higher high was made sellers quickly jumped back into the market pulling price back down. Keep in mind the higher high which was made was another early sign that a trend reversal was likely to happen.

During this time I was watching the charts like a hawk keeping a close eye on the time and sales window which I have filtered to show me only orders with a market value of $3million dollar or larger. This helps me keep a close eye on what the big money players are doing… Following their coat tails if done correctly will help keep you out of the market at times and also gets you in before the masses jump on the wagon.

The two key sectors I talked about on June 19th were the Financials and Tech. Both these sectors must move up if we are to get a decent bounce/rally in the market.

Financial Sector Daily Chart:
By zooming out on the daily chart we can see in terms of both price and volume that the financial sector was at a major support level. Also it had just fallen sharply for more than a week making it oversold and ready for a bounce.

Only a couple days later financial stocks rocketed 11% higher as expected and the broad market (SP500) posted some decent gains for us also.

Let’s take a look at the financial sector:
The tech sector was in the same boat as the financials above… Tech stocks jumped an average 6%.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, I feel the market has shown us some decent upward momentum and everything is now at the point where a pause is likely. I expect some type of pause or pullback in the coming week and then the market has a major decision to make. Will it continue and start a new leg higher or roll over and die… That’s the next key question/action about to take shape and I will help guide you through these times each day with my pre-market morning video analysis.

Get Chris Vermeulens Daily Pre-Market Trend Trading Videos, intraday updates and weekly market reports for at a big discount for at The Gold and Oil Guy.com

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Susan Jackson: Trade Triangles Show Crude Oil and U.S. Dollar Falling Together

In today's video we have INO.com's own Susan Jackson analyzing the major markets including fall of crude oil and the U.S. Dollar.

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Week Ending Market Commentary

Crude oil posted an inside day with a higher close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 86.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 94.70. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 97.85. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 89.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 86.32.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off this month's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 4.119 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.593 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.430. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.593. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.186. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the March-June rally crossing at 4.119.

Gold closed sharply lower for the second day in a row on Friday as it extended yesterday's breakout below this year's uptrend line crossing near 1529.80. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Today's close below the reaction low crossing at 1511.40 confirms a top has been posted and trend change has taken place. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1534.60 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1529.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1534.60. First support is today's low crossing at 1498.50. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1477.10.


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