The market has been in the process of a near 13 Fibonacci week corrective rally since the October 4th 2011 lows at 1074 on the SP 500. So far the highs reached on the initial rally of 218 points were in October at 1292. That has remained the high water mark as we have consolidated over the last many weeks. I expect the market to complete this counter trend ABC bounce during the Dec 27th-29th window, followed by a good sized correction into Mid-January ahead of the earning season.
The patterns that I am seeing are based on crowd behavioral “Elliott Wave” analysis that I perform at my TMTF and ATP services, and this analysis now favors a 70% probability of a bearish decline beginning very shortly to the 1150’s area on the SP 500 index. To wit, Investment Advisors in recent surveys have over 45% Bulls and only 30% bears with typical tops forming around 47-48% Bulls in surveys. In addition, the rally has been on light volume and recent action seems to be forming a rising “bearish wedge” pattern at the same time.
Reversals in the market often come when few expect it whether they come near bottoms or tops. My most recent forecasts called a bullish turn after Thanksgiving Day when most were bearish in the 1160’s on the SP 500 index. We then rallied 109 points to a 1267 high, which we are retesting now. As we recently pulled back into the low 1200’s, I again said to watch for a major market turn on Dec 20th. We then immediately rallied so far into the 1270 area from the 1203 lows.
Below is a chart I sent to my subscribers on Dec 24th, having projected a continuing rally into the 27th-29th window of trade. If you’d like to benefit from our market turn calls and crowd behavioral based pattern analysis on the SP 500 and Gold and Silver, check us out at Market Trend Forecast to sign up for our free forecast or get 33% holiday discount on our premium gold and silver forcecast.
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Merry Christmas Crude Oil Bulls.....From Iran to You!
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices in crude oil are possible near term. If February extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 102.56 is the next upside target. If February renews the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.46 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 102.56. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 103.28. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 92.73. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.46.
A Play on SCO This Week.....a Short Squeeze & Crude Oil Trade Idea
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Holiday Short Squeeze & Crude Oil Trade Idea
Typically, the week before Christmas, stocks and commodities drift higher due to the lack of participants. Light volume favours higher prices, which is why stocks want to rise going into the holiday season.
The big money players, like hedge fund managers, are finished for the year. They’re sitting on the sidelines enjoying the holiday season while waiting for their year-end bonus checks.
Friday was an interesting session as stocks and oil reached some key resistance levels. Below are my thoughts, charts, and a possible trade idea for next week.
Gold & Silver Thoughts:
Looking at the long term charts of gold and silver, I feel they could head much lower in the first quarter of 2012. The inverse relationship between the dollar index and gold makes me think this is a high probability scenario.
The weekly dollar index chart remains strong at this point and could start another very strong rally any day. Once the dollar starts heading higher, expect precious metals to move down along with equities.
SP500, Dollar and Volatility Index
Below are three charts stacked on top of each other. They are marked with my analysis and thoughts for next week. Personally, I don’t feel shorting stocks is a safe play. The last week of the year, we can see the volatility index (VIX), and the dollar, rise without putting pressure on stocks. So be aware of that.
TRADE IDEA – View Chart:
Crude oil looks like a great low risk opportunity (a real “Christmas” present!) from Mr. Market. SCO would be the ETF for US based traders. HOD, which is listed on the TSX, is good for Canadians. I favour this setup because I don’t feel that oil will be as affected from the holiday bulge as will American equities.
Pre-Holiday Trading Conclusion:
I was planning on avoiding the market Friday, but the charts were calling my name...... The session ended with what looked to be a short squeeze. The remaining short positions didn’t get their expected drop in price. Consequently, when the traders all started to cover their shorts (buy) just before the close, it caused a strong surge higher.
I do not recommend shorting stocks next week because of the light volume. However, oil looks good to me.
Just thought I would share my end of the week thoughts, and wish you a Merry Christmas!
Cheers!
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Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Gold and Silver on the Verge of a Big Move
The past few months have been tough for those holding precious metals stocks, PM futures contracts or physical bullion. With silver is trading down 41%, precious metals stocks down 30% and gold 15%. It has people scratching their head.
The question everyone keeps asking is when can I buy gold and silver?
Unfortunately that is not a simple answer. With what is unfolding across the pond and the bullish outlook for the US Dollar index the next move is a coin toss. That being said, I do feel a large move brewing in the market place so I am preparing for fireworks in the first quarter of 2012.
If you step back and look at the weekly trend charts of the dollar index and the SP500 index you will see the strength in the dollar along with a possible stop in equities forming. What these charts are telling is that in the next 3 months we should know if stocks and commodities are going to start another multi month rally or roll over and start a bear market sell off.
With the holiday season nearing, hedge fund managers sitting on the sidelines just waiting for their yearend performance bonuses, I cannot see any large selloff start until January. Selloffs in the market require strong volume and the second half of December is not a time of heavy trading volume. This leaves us with a light volume holiday season, major issues overseas and no big money players willing to cause waves.
So let’s take a quick look at the charts as to where the line in the sand it for the dollar index, gold and silver.
Dollar Index Daily Chart
This week we have seen a strong shift of money out of risk off assets (Bonds) and into risk off (Stocks). This shift is happening before the dollar has broken down indicating the dollar may be topping and could be an early warning of higher stocks prices going into year end. Also note that light volume market conditions also favour higher prices.
Gold Price Daily Chart
Gold could still head lower but at this point it is holding a key support level. If we see the dollar breakdown below its green support trendline then I expect gold to have a firm bounce to the $1675 – $1700.
Silver Price Daily Chart
Silver continues to hold a key support level. If the dollar breaks down the silver should bounce to the $31.50 – $32 area. But if the dollar continues to rally then silver and gold may drop sharply.
Mid-Week Trend Conclusion:
In short, I think the best thing to do is enjoy the holiday season with family and friends. Trading right now is not that great and with the market giving mixed signals. I am keeping my eyes on the market in case it flashes a low risk setup and I will keep you informed if we get one.
Be aware that Monday is a holiday and once January arrives the market could go crazy again. If you want all my swing trades that I personally do be sure to join my alert service The Gold & Oil Guy.Com
Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones!
Cheers,
Chris Vermeulen
Chris Vermeulen
ONG: Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Wednesday Dec. 21st
In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another low below 74.95.
Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
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Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Geopolitical Worries Boost Crude
Light, sweet crude for January delivery ended the day up $3.34, at $97.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange settled up $3.09, or 3 percent, to $106.73 a barrel. The January Nymex contract expired at the end of trading Tuesday; the February contract, which becomes the front month contract Wednesday, settled up $3.19 to $97.24. Volume was light in both contracts, at about half the average because of the holiday week.
Iranian news dominated the oil market. Leaders of 11 nations including the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were scheduled to meet Tuesday to discuss sanctions of Iranian oil exports. Iran is the world's third largest oil exporter, supplying 2.2 million barrels per day to the world. Though the U.S. does not buy crude from Iran, the fear is that an already tight global supply portfolio would be further pinched. The U.S. and other western countries are targeting Iran's oil and financial sectors in response to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Meanwhile, the Pentagon sought to downplay comments by U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta saying Iran could have a nuclear weapon in a year or less. Separately, Iran invited UN weapons inspectors into the country.
Concerns were also rising over an apparent breakdown in Iraq's central government, just as the oil industry there is beginning to show signs of progress in its recovery from the war. And in Kazakhstan, the government declared a state of emergency in the Caspian oil town of Zhanaozen after clashes between laid-off oil workers and security forces during an anti-government protest, and at least 11 people were reported killed. Kazakhstan exported 1.5 million barrels of oil a day in 2010.
"There is an undercurrent in crude oil with the issues happening in the Middle East, and the massacre in Kazakhstan," said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist for Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. "It's just further evidence that you've got unrest in energy producing areas...It's just like, 'Oh my God, another energy producer. What's next, are we going to start having riots in Texas?"
Crude oil was also boosted by a report from the Commerce Department saying housing starts increased to the highest level in 19 months. Stocks soared as well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 325 points in mid-afternoon. Front month January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, rose 8.96 cents, or 3.6 percent, to $2.5787 a gallon. January heating oil was up 6.9 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $2.8494 a gallon.
Posted courtesy of Rigzone
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Phil Flynn: The Hopes and Fears!
It is all about hopes and fears and that has been the dominate force driving oil this year and in recent days. The hopes that the Euro zone would step up to the table with a big bazooka to put the Euro break up fears to rest were dashed. Mario Draghi is a drag and is making it clear that a Euro bond is highly unlikely. Yet the German consumer confidence is showing that Europe might be more resilient than thought and downgrade fears might not be coming as fast and furious as previously thought .Dow Jones reports that Fitch Ratings says the 'AAA' rating on debt issues of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) largely depends on France and Germany retaining their 'AAA' status.
The revision of the rating outlook on France to negative last Friday implies that the risk of a downgrade of EFSF debt has increased. We affirmed France's 'AAA' status but warned that that there is a slightly greater than 50% chance of a downgrade within the next year or two. This is therefore also the case for the 'AAA' ratings assigned to the EFSF's debt issues, unless additional credit enhancement mechanisms are introduced. The 'AAA' ratings assigned to EFSF debt issues rely on the EUR726bn of irrevocable and unconditional guarantees provided by the euro member states, and on the conservative guidelines the EFSF sets itself regarding debt management and liquidity risk.
Of the guarantees and over guarantees from 'AAA' rated member states, France and Germany provide EUR369.6bn, or over 80%. Although the EFSF could potentially remedy a downgrade of a small 'AAA' guarantor by increasing the size of its cash reserve or through additional credit enhancements, this would be far more challenging if a larger guarantor like France or Germany were downgraded. The primary source of ratings risk for EFSF debt issues is therefore the possibility that one or more of its largest 'AAA' guarantors is downgraded.
Oil may be also getting a boost from the Dow Jones report that, “Saudi King Abdullah is urging neighboring states to join in a formal Gulf union to confront what he called rising threats to their security and stability, as Gulf leaders convened to discuss regional uprisings and growing Arab worries over Iran. You must realize that our security and stability are threatened and we need to live up to our responsibilities," King Abdullah told the leaders of the five other nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council, gathered in Riyadh in their first annual GCC meeting since the Arab uprisings began. "
The Gulf's monarchies, emirates and sheikhdoms risked losing all if they failed to combine their efforts, Abdullah said. "So I ask you to go beyond the stage of cooperation, to a union in a single entity. King Abdullah gave no immediate public details of how he envisioned such a union taking shape, or operating. Gulf officials had said earlier that the two day meeting launched Monday would address greater cooperation in the military realm and others. The GCC comprises Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain.” Stay tuned.
Make sure you are getting Phils daily trade levels! Just call him email me at pflynn@pfgbest.com to get your trial and to open your account.
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Monday, December 19, 2011
Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Monday Evening Dec. 19th
Gold closed lower on Monday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends this month's decline, September's low crossing at 1543.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1688.70 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1688.70. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1562.50. Second support is September's low crossing at 1543.30.
Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this year's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If January extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at 2.409 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.425 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.271. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.425. First support is today's low crossing at 3.050. Second support is monthly support crossing at 2.409.
How To Trade Market Sentiment
Crude Oil Bears Take a Clear Near Term Advantage
If January extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.37 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.11 are needed confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.11. Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 101.25. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 92.68. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-November rally crossing at 89.37. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 93.83.
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Sunday, December 18, 2011
ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday Dec. 18th
In the bigger picture, fall from 114.83 has finished at 74.95 already. The structure suggests it's merely a correction or part of a consolidation pattern. Hence, rise from 33.2 is not finished yet. As long as 89.16/17 support holds, we'd favor a break of 114.83 resistance to resume the rally from 33.2. However, break of 89.16/17 will indicate that rebound from 74.95 has completed and whole fall from 114.83 is possibly resuming for another low below 74.95.
In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.
ONG Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts
Precious Metals, Equities and Crude Oil Long Term Outlook
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