Weekly Commodities Recap with Mike Seery - Gold, Silver, Coffee, Sugar,

It's time for our weekly commodities market recap with our trading partner Mike Seery......

The gold market in the December contract sold off $30 dollars an ounce this week at 1,316 as the U.S dollar hit a fresh 10 month low not influencing gold prices just yet. Gold made a new 10 week low on the night session this week trading as low as 1,276 then rallied sharply as investors came rushing back into this market and I am still recommending to sick on the sidelines because of this choppy pattern where gold is down $40 dollars and the next day its up $30 but I still do think prices look weak and I think they still could re-test the summer lows around 1,200. If you are short the futures market in the December contract I would place my stop loss at 1,354 which was Mondays high minimizing your risk in case the trend changes. This market is very volatile with high risk so make sure you under trade meaning don’t lose more than 2% of your account balance on any given trade. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Silver futures ended down 12 cents for the week in the December contract at 21.72 an ounce and in my opinion the panic selling on October 1st for no reason might have created a spike low on the daily charts as the U.S dollar broke 80 for the 1st time in 10 months. As I’ve stated in many previous blogs I think investors should take advantage of big down days because silver has a lot of bullish fundamentals which in the long run could push prices higher, however gold still looks weak to me as money seems to be going into the stock market which was sharply higher today and out of gold lately which is also keeping a lid on silver prices here in the short term. The silver market is very sensitive to a strong or weak dollar and if you do some homework and look at some historical charts you will see a rising silver market when the U.S dollar declines. TREND: NEUTRAL–CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Sugar futures settled last Friday at 17.74 a pound going out today at 18.45 continuing its bullish trend hitting a 5 1/2 month high still trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average. Prices tumbled about 60 points last Friday just missing the 10 day low but then on Monday prices rallied about 60 points so if you’re still in this market I would still keep my stop below the 10 day low as prices have come alive to the upside as volatility has come back into this market. Sugar prices went up 4 straight days before profit taking took place finishing down 5 points at 18.48 and I think the next major resistance is around 19/19.50 as the U.S dollar is hitting 10 month lows which is starting to spur some commodity prices higher especially sugar. TREND: HIGHER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures this week continued their sideways trading action settling last Friday at 113.70 basically unchanged for the trading week settling at 114.15 a pound in the December contract and at this time there is very little interest in this market at this point as volatility is as low as I can ever remember historically. Coffee prices are right at 4 ½ year lows as huge crops around the world including Vietnam have put ample supplies onto the market which is why prices are so depressed at this time. If you are interested in getting long the coffee market I would look at call options at least 6 months out and buy them at the money limiting your risk to what the premium costs because premiums are historically cheap due to low volatility. The volatility in coffee at the present time is very small and I have been following coffee for 20 years and I believe volatility is going to come back into this sleeping giant and that usually means prices rise as interest comes back into the market. If you’re a longer term investor I would take advantage of coffee if prices dropped down into the 110 area remembering that coffee was trading at 300 just 3 years ago when supplies were much lower. TREND: LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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Citigroup Picks Winners and Losers Among U.S. Refiners

It may not be the gospel but we should pay attention as Citigroup picks winners and losers among U.S. refiners. Here is Citigroup's take on oil refiners. The firm expects to see a bottoming of earnings in Q4 for most names, but companies overweight the Midcontinent and/or Midwest could experience a difficult earnings environment through Q1 2014.

The diverging earnings performance will result in positive price appreciation for some refiners - such as Valero (VLO) and Tesoro (TSO), which earn upgrades to Buy - but underperformance for others, such as on Alon USA (ALDW), CVR Refining (CVRR), Holly Frontier (HFC) and PBF Energy (PBF), which will remain pressured by narrowing price differences between WTI and Brent crude.

TSO will benefit next year from a tighter gasoline market in California, and VLO will benefit from wider heavy light differentials in H2 2014 as increased Canadian heavy crude flows to the U.S. Gulf coast, Citi says.

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The Renminbi.....Soon to Be a Reserve Currency?

By John Mauldin

I get the question all the time: when will the Chinese renminbi (RMB) replace the US dollar as the major world reserve currency? The assumption behind such questions is almost always that the coming crisis in US entitlement programs will force the Fed to monetize even more debt, thereby killing the dollar. Or some derivative line of that thought. Contrary to the thinking of fretful dollar skeptics, my firm belief is that the US dollar is going to become even stronger and will at some point actually deserve to be the reserve currency of choice rather than merely the prettiest girl in the ugly contest – the last currency standing, so to speak.

But whether the Chinese RMB will become a reserve currency is an entirely different question. Of course it will, over time, but the question has always been when. There are some preconditions required for reserve currency status. Quietly, apart from anything that might happen to the US dollar, China is working to meet those conditions. Rather than wallowing in concerns about China's actions, we might opt for a more thoughtful and constructive response: to welcome the RMB to the reserve currency club and hope that it gets here soon. The world will be a better place when that happens. And off the radar screen, it may be happening right now. Today we look at global trade flows and international balances and try to imagine a world in which much "common wisdom" gets stood on its head. It should make for an interesting thought experiment, to say the least. (This letter will print a little longer than usual, as there are numerous charts and graphs.)

One of the prerequisites for a true reserve currency is that there must be a steady and ready supply of the currency to facilitate global trade. The United States has done its part in providing an ample supply of US dollars by running massive trade deficits with the rest of the world, primarily with oil-producing nations and with Asia (most notably China and Japan), for all manner of manufactured products. The US consumer has been the buyer of last resort for several decades (I say, somewhat tongue in cheek). Those dollars typically end up in the reserve balances of various producing nations and find their way back to the US, primarily invested in US government bonds. In an odd sense, the rest of the world has been providing vendor financing to the US, the richest nation in the world.



The US Trade Deficit Turns Positive

The US trade deficit (a key component of the current account deficit – see chart on next page) fell to an unprecedented percentage of GDP during the last decade, a development that normally heralds a significant drop in a currency. Fortunately, the "exorbitant privilege" of controlling the world's dominant currency in reserve holdings, international trade, and financial transactions has helped shield the US dollar from a hard correction; but that status quo is in danger. After flooding the world with US dollars for more than twenty years, the US has reduced its current account deficit by 58% since the 2007-2008 financial crisis began. Looking ahead, I and many other observers believe this measure can continue to improve, due two surprisingly positive factors:

1. The US energy boom in shale oil and gas. The US has caught an incredibly well-timed "lucky break" made possible by the combination of new exploration, production, and processing technologies (such as horizontal drilling and fracking) and by the serendipitous discovery of massive supplies of oil and gas, often in areas that already have significant infrastructure and/or are accessible at reasonable costs. This energy renaissance is part of the reality that has made Houston, Texas, the number one port in the United States, with even more growth coming in the near future when the Panama Canal expansion is completed in 2014. US manufacturers are turning less-expensive oil and gas into value-added fossil fuel products and exporting them to the world. This trend will become ever more important. Indeed, when the first LNG export terminal is opened in a few years, the additional exports will approach $80 billion a year, I am told. From one terminal! There are four in the process of being approved and more on the planning boards. The math is there for anyone to do. Spot prices in the US natural gas-producing areas are under $4. The Japanese are paying more than $14. Even I can do that arbitrage. Just for fun, the next graph, from the Energy Information Administration, shows the rise in spot gas prices over the last six months, from a level that had been far too low. It also shows the arbitrage potential that exists right here in the US.

2. The consequent renaissance in US manufacturing. With cheaper energy and new technologies like advanced robotics and 3D printing, the US is producing more than we ever have – we're just doing it with fewer people.

These two trends are bullish for the US in general. But that's another story for another letter. The point today is that the US current account deficit is collapsing. A positive trade balance is not an unthinkable prospect today. It is quite possible that the US will be more or less energy self-sufficient by the end of the decade and could have a positive trade balance not long after that. I should note that exporting value-added chemicals made from less expensive energy will contribute even more to the positive balance than simply selling the raw natural gas.

To continue reading this article from Thoughts from the Frontline – a free weekly publication by John Mauldin, renowned financial expert, best-selling author, and Chairman of Mauldin Economics – Please Click Here.

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Weekly Market Recap with Mike Seery - Gold, Silver and Coffee

Here is a weekly recap of the gold, silver and coffee markets from our trading partner Mike Seery.....  

Gold futures traded up $7 for the trading week and higher by $15 dollars an ounce this Friday afternoon at 1,340 still in a sideways to downward pattern & I am still advising traders to sit on the sidelines and wait for a real trend to develop, but I do believe that prices look weak at this level and are headed lower with the possibility of testing 1,290 once again. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average and it wouldn’t surprise me to see gold retest the June 28th low of 1,182 but that day prices closed at 1,225 & that’s only about $100 dollars away and I think in the long run if your bullish gold you probably want to see gold retest that level and rebound strongly confirming that the possibility of a long-term bottom would be in place. The chart structure in gold is improving which will allow you to place a closer stop loss in the futures market minimizing your risk especially if you trading the mini contract and the liquidity in the gold futures are outstanding as money flowed back into the stock market today and out of the precious metals. TREND: SIDEWAYS TO LOWER –CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

The silver market was basically unchanged for the trading week and finished up 10 cents at 21.85 this Friday afternoon in New York in a real lack luster trade as volatility has slowed down in recent days but I don’t think that will last for long as silver is one of the most volatile commodities in the world on a daily basis. Silver futures are still trading below their 20 but right at their 100 day moving average with a possible retest of the recent low at 21.22 and is still looks relatively weak in my opinion but if you’re a long term investor I still believe silver prices are cheap & I do think prices will head higher eventually but they might retest the $20 level first in my opinion. Silver is extremely volatile and impossible to try & pick a top or bottom so the object is if your bullish is to try to buy near the bottom or what I still believe is to take advantage of big down days in silver. The most recent high in silver was 25.17 which was during the Syria situation so prices have dropped around $3.50 from those highs; however I think prices will chop around for a while and form a long term bottom at these levels. TREND: SIDEWAYS – CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

The coffee market continues its bearish trend in New York this week trading as high as 119 on Wednesday in the December contract looking to possibly breakout to the upside but then prices got slammed hitting a 4 1/2 year low down another 180 points at 113.90 this Friday with the next major support between 100 – 110 & in my opinion it looks like were headed to those price levels. The coffee market has excellent chart structure allowing you to place a tight stop loss above 119 if you’re looking to get short risking around $2,000 per contract as rumors of a massive crop coming out of Vietnam possibility 29 million bags which is well above recent estimates of 27 million bags pushing prices lower and I still believe if prices get down to the 100 level & your long term investor prices look awful cheap at major yearly support. The biggest fundamental problem with coffee currently is supplies are huge with excellent growing conditions around the world which is keeping a lid on prices at this time. The one positive influence coffee has is the fact that all the bad news is already priced into the market and the fact that the U.S dollar is hitting another 8 month low today could start to support coffee and all the other commodities as well in my opinion. TREND: LOWER – CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

What do I mean when I talk about chart structure and why do I think it is so important when deciding to enter or exit a trade? I define chart structure as a slow and grinding up or down trend with low volatility and no chart gaps. Many of the great trends that develop have very good chart structure with many low percentage daily moves over a course of at least 4 weeks thus allowing you to enter a market and allowing you to place a stop loss with will be relatively close due to small moves thus reducing risk.

Charts that have violent up and down swings are not considered to have solid chart structure but markets that continue to trend like the current soybean complex allowing for you to place close stops as it continues to fall dramatically. I always like to place my stops at 10 day highs or 10 day lows and if the charts have a tight pattern that will allow the trader to minimize risk which is what trading is all about and if the chart has big swings your stop will be further away allowing the possibility of larger monetary loses.

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Will Russia Lose Its Oily Grip on Europe?

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

Vladimir Putin is on a roll. Ever since the Russian president-turned-prime-minister-turned-president got into office 13 years ago, he's been deftly maneuvering Russia back into the ranks of global heavyweights. These days, he's averting cruise missiles from Syria before breakfast.


For a strategy to return Russia to superpower status, Putin had to look no farther than his own doctoral thesis, Mineral Natural Resources in the Development Strategy for the Russian Economy.

To say that Russia is rich in natural resources would be an understatement. In 2009, the former heart of the Soviet Union surpassed Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producer—largely because Putin put reviving Russia's aging, neglected oil industry at the top of his priorities list.

The chart below shows proven oil reserves from the pre-Putin era to now. In just 16 years, they have risen by more than 30 billion barrels—which may still be too low, because it's not yet clear how much of the 90-odd billion barrels of undiscovered oil in the Arctic is actually recoverable. And in addition to new discoveries, the rising price of oil has made many formerly uneconomical deposits worth a second look.

As a result, about half of the more than 10 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) that Russia produces are exported… only to return as cash and, increasingly, a fistful of clout.

With Putin's monster deposits being the closest and most conveniently accessible,  many European nations rely heavily on oil and gas imports from Russia and the former Soviet states:

In a world where "he who has the energy wields the power," Russia's European customers find themselves in a very uncomfortable situation. How fragile their position is became clear in January 2009, when Putin, enraged over a price and debt dispute with Ukraine, shut off the natural-gas spigot, leaving customers in 18  European countries literally out in the cold.

Now the Russian vise grip on Europe is about to tighten even more as new energy markets are opening up to Moscow.

In January of this year, Russia's pipeline company, Transneft, completed the $25 billion, 4,700-kilometer-long East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline, and in June, Putin signed one of the world's biggest oil deals ever.

For the next 25 years, Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company, will deliver about 300,000 barrels per day to China—raising Russian oil exports to the Chinese by 75%. Besides China, the pipeline is also conveniently located for Japan, South Korea, and even the US West Coast.

This advantageous situation allows Putin to play hardball with Europe: If its customers there don't ante up what Moscow wants in price or pound of flesh, its income from ESPO customers could enable the country to twist the EU's taps closed.

It comes as no surprise that Europe is desperately trying to find a reasonably priced replacement for Russian oil. And in the very near future, it might just get its wish.

Hidden deep below Central European soil may be one of the largest oil deposits in the world, comparable in size to the legendary Bakken formation in North America. I call it the "next Bakken."
The full extent of this oil colossus is still unknown, but the final result could be one for the record books.  And a small company with 2 million acres of land in the "next Bakken" is hard at work to prove up the reserves and make itself and its shareholders rich in the process.

This is not a stab in the dark; there's no doubt that the oil is there. In the past, 93 million barrels of oil have been produced on the land the company owns now. But thanks to the company's state-of-the-art technology, management expects to be able to unlock many more millions or billions of barrels of to date inaccessible or uneconomical oil.

In fact, all of management is invested heavily in the company, which is always a good sign—one of its directors, for example, owns more than 1.2 million shares.

(By the way, the country where this deposit is located is forced to import more than 700,000 barrels of oil per day from Russia, a balance of power that could shift dramatically with this new windfall—so chances are good that the government will enthusiastically support the new oil production.)

Since our initial recommendation, Casey Energy Report subscribers already made gains of up to 66.4% from this company—but this is not a one-hit wonder whose fame fades as fast as it started. If the deposit indeed has what we think it does in recoverable reserves, the company could generate exceptional profits for years on end.

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COT Market Summary for Thursday Sept.26th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and U.S. Dollar

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. U.S. economic data for released Thursday was a mixed bag. The weekly jobless claims report came in better than expected, while the third quarter gross domestic product report came in a bit weaker than expected. The weekly jobless claims data was deemed fresher news than the GDP data and that helped to lift the stock indexes. In more “Fed speak” this week, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank president Jeffrey Lacker said Thursday he supported a faster tapering of the Fed's monthly bond buying program and said he is surprised the process has not already begun.

Fed governor Jeremy Stein also said Thursday the FOMC's decision not to taper last week was “a close call.” Notions are growing the Fed could indeed begin to “taper” yet this year. Meantime, the European Central Bank's executive board member said Thursday the ECB needs to continue its expansive monetary policies. The U.S. budget and debt ceiling issues have moved to the front burner of the market place. The U.S. government will have to at least partially shut down early next week if Congress does not pass a budget by that time.

Also, in mid October the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit. This matter could be significantly bearish for most markets in the near term, as there is talk some of the U.S. government will shut down for a short time next week.

November Nymex crude oil closed up $0.28 at $102.95 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in quieter trading. Crude oil bulls still have the slight overall near term technical advantage but are fading.

November natural gas closed up 3.5 cents at $3.581 today. Prices closed near the session high on short covering after hitting a fresh five week low early on today. The natural gas bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 0.212 at 80.655 today. Prices closed nearer the session high on short covering. The bears still have the near term technical advantage.

December gold futures closed down $11.80 an ounce at $1,324.40. Prices closed nearer the session low today. A firmer U.S. dollar index today helped to pressure gold. A four week old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The gold market bears have the overall near term technical advantage.

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COT Market Summary for Tuesday Sept. 24th - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

November crude oil closed lower on Tuesday extending this month's decline. A short covering rebound tempered early session losses and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.86 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 106.86. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 110.70. First support is the 38% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 102.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the April-August rally crossing at 98.71.

October Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off this month's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.418 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.659 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.659. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.841. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.418. Second support is April's low crossing at 3.154.

The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday. Today's rally ended a three day decline following comments by President Obama that eased concerns over Middle East tensions. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1668.47 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard to project. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 1726.50. Second resistance is unknown now that December is trading into uncharted territory. First support is gap support crossing at 1702.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1668.47.

October gold closed lower on Tuesday and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1362.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1362.30. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 1281.80. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

And we haven't given up yet....December coffee closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 12.10 would confirm that a low has been posted. If December extends this summer's decline, monthly support crossing at 10.21 is the next downside target.

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National Oilwell Varco Announces Plan to Pursue Spin-Off of Distribution Business into Separate Publicly Traded Company

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) announced today that its Board of Directors has authorized Company management to move forward with exploration of a plan to spin off NOV’s distribution business from the remainder of the Company, creating two stand-alone, publicly traded corporations. The Company believes that the separation of the distribution business can be accomplished via a tax-efficient spin off to NOV shareholders.

Pete Miller, Chairman and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, “Through the hard work and dedicated efforts of its employees, and with last year’s acquisitions of Wilson Supply and C.E. Franklin, we believe the Company’s distribution business now has the market size and scale to operate as a standalone, world class, distribution company. As a separate company, the distribution group would have over 415 locations and operations in 26 countries, representing approximately 85% of the revenue of NOV’s Distribution and Transmission Segment for the six months ending June 30, 2013. This distribution company will be a leading, pure play, provider of maintenance, repair and operating supplies to the global energy and industrial markets, and poised for continued profitable growth.

We believe that the contemplated spin-off is very consistent with NOV’s strategy and commitment to continue to grow the Company and create significant shareholder value. This is the right business move for both companies. As separate companies, the distribution business and the remainder of NOV will each be better positioned and have the enhanced operational flexibility to focus on their specific products, services and customers.”

The spin-off is expected to be completed in the first half of 2014 and is subject to market conditions, customary regulatory approvals, the execution of separation and intercompany agreements and final board approval. The separation of the distribution business from the rest of NOV does not require shareholder approval.

Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC is serving as the financial advisor to the Company and Locke Lord LLP is serving as its legal advisor.

National Oilwell Varco is a worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, the provision of oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.

Statements made in this press release that are forward looking in nature are intended to be "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and may involve risks and uncertainties. These statements may differ materially from actual future events or results. Readers are referred to documents filed by National Oilwell Varco with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Annual Report on Form 10-K, which identify significant risk factors which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

Source: National Oilwell Varco, Inc.

National Oilwell Varco, Inc.
Jeremy Thigpen, (713) 346-7301

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Advanced Study - Opening Gap - Crude Oil (CL)

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