Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 8th through May 12th ended with the Dow and SP500 indexes closing lower as investors reacted to an uncertain political environment stemming from President Donald Trump's firing of former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey. Meanwhile, retail sales and consumer prices rose in the latest month, albeit by a slower pace than had been expected, offering a mixed picture of the state of the economy. The NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday, the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when next weeks trading begins.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session after settling last Friday at 46.22 while currently trading at 48.00 a barrel and I'm currently not involved in this market. Oil prices had a spike bottom last Friday which was May 5th at 43.76 & has rallied about $4. This market remains choppy just like all the other commodity sectors. However, if you are short a futures contract, I would place the stop loss above the 10 day high which stands at 49.32 as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower. OPEC has come back into the news possibly cutting production once again to try to prop up prices as oversupply issues are the biggest problem with this sector as every time prices rally rig counts in the United States increase, therefore, putting pressure back on prices. Prices have surged over the last several days off of the API report which showed a larger draw down of crude oil supplies, but basically, I think a lot of this was short covering as prices were in oversold territory.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,226 an ounce while currently trading at 1,230 down about $4 for the trading week and is still hovering right near a 7 week low. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines at present. As I've written about in previous blogs, I remain bearish on gold, and I think the stock market will continue to move higher. If you are short a futures contract, I would place your stop above the 10 day high which stands at 1,272 as the chart structure will start to improve later next week, therefore, lowering the monetary risk. Gold prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the short term trend is lower as volatility is relatively low. I don't expect that to continue for much longer as generally speaking volatility starts to increase in the summer months for the commodity markets. The precious metals have been on the defensive over the last couple of months as silver and platinum are also right near multi month lows as the commodity markets remain extremely choppy and have been over the last 6 months.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.27 an ounce while currently trading at 16.45 up about $0.20 for the trading week and it's still right near a 5 month low as prices have rebounded due to oversold conditions in my opinion. At the current time, I'm not involved in silver as prices have dropped over $2 from their April 17th high and the chart structure is very poor. Silver futures are trading far under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside and prices are probably looking to retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. The precious metals remain weak because all of the interest remains in the U.S stock market which is right near all time highs once again. Silver prices have been extremely choppy over the last 6 months rallying several dollars and then selling off several dollars as that has been the case with many of the commodity sectors. In years past we had terrific trends, but that has not been the case in 2017 as the risk/reward is not in favor at the present time so move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

The Nasdaq 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5648 while currently trading at 5678 up another 30 points hitting another all time high this week. I'm not involved in this commodity. However, I am very bullish the stock market, and I've written about this in many previous blogs, I do think higher prices are ahead. The NASDAQ 100 is trading far above it's 20 and 100 day moving average being propelled by Apple Computer. Apple is up another $2 hitting another all time high as the tech sector is still on fire. I'm certainly not recommending any bearish position as this is the strongest trend out of all of the markets at the current time. I do think the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will continue to follow. However, the NASDAQ is the strongest of all of the stock indices and clearly is the leader to the upside. Fundamentally speaking this market has the perfect situation occurring with extremely low interest rates coupled with outstanding earnings and a Trump administration that is pro business so who knows how high prices can go, but in my opinion, they are going much higher so if you are in a bullish position stay long.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Wheat, Sugar, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

The Bond King Says "Short U.S. Stock"

Short the SP500.....That’s not something most investors would consider right now. After all, US stocks have been rallying for eight straight years. At this point, it’s hard to even remember what a down market feels like.

But that’s exactly what Jeff Gundlach thinks you should do. Gundlach, as you may know, is one of the world’s brightest investors. He manages more than $100 billion at his firm DoubleLine Capital.

On Monday, he told a room full of investors at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York to short (bet against) the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). This fund tracks the S&P 500. It’s the most heavily traded ETF on the planet.

It’s a bold call, to say the least.…
But Gundlach has a history of nailing calls like this. At last year’s Sohn Conference, he told investors to short the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) and buy the iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF (REM). If you had taken Gundlach’s advice, you’d be up 40% on this trade today. Gundlach was also one of the few people to predict that Donald Trump would become president of the United States. In June, he told CNBC:

People aren't getting along, they're not happy because of technology taking jobs, and sort of this long, slow grind of a new economy. And so they're looking for change, and I think Trump is going to win on the basis of that.

In other words, it pays to listen to Gundlach.…
But here’s the thing. Gundlach doesn’t think you should get out of stocks completely. Instead, he thinks you should “go long” emerging markets. These are countries that are on their way to becoming “developed” countries like the United States. Brazil, Russia, India, and China (also known as the “BRICs”) are the largest emerging markets.

On Monday, Gundlach told investors at the Sohn Conference to buy the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which tracks over 800 emerging market stocks. It’s one of the safest and most diversified ways to play emerging markets. Of course, you would have already known that if you’ve been reading the Dispatch.

After all, I’ve been pounding the table on emerging market stocks for months.…
In February, I outlined the bullish case for emerging markets. A month later, I told investors to “forget about US stocks” and consider emerging market stocks. I even recommended checking out EEM, just like Gundlach. Not only that, Gundlach likes emerging markets for the same reasons we do. I’ll share those with you in a moment. But let’s first look at why the “Bond King” thinks you should short the S&P 500.

U.S. stocks are incredibly expensive.…
Just look at this chart. It compares the total market value of the S&P 500 with the annual economic output of the United States, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP). This key ratio is now at the highest level since the dot com bubble.

US stocks aren’t just expensive from a historical perspective, either.…
They’re also much more expensive than emerging market stocks. Gundlach explained to CNBC on Monday:

The valuation of emerging markets is half the valuation of the S&P 500 when you look at things like price to sales, price to book, [and] Dr. Shiller’s CAPE ratio.

Dispatch readers know CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price to earnings. It’s the cousin of the popular price to earnings (P/E) ratio. The only difference is that it uses 10 years’ worth of earnings instead of one. But just like the P/E ratio, a high CAPE ratio means stocks are expensive. You can see below that the CAPE ratio has surged to 29.5. That’s 76% higher than the S&P 500’s historical average. US stocks have only been this expensive two times in history: just before the Great Depression and during the dot com bubble. Meanwhile, the CAPE ratio for EEM is floating around 14, meaning it’s 52% cheaper than SPY.

To be fair, emerging market stocks have been cheaper than US stocks for years.…
And they’ve still underperformed them. But that’s starting to change. Just look at the chart below. It compares the performance of the S&P 500 with EEM. When this line is rising, it means US stocks are doing better than emerging market stocks.

You can see that’s been the case for years. But this key ratio just broke a long term upward trend line.
This tells us that emerging market stocks should outperform US stocks for years to come.

If you haven’t already, I recommend you pick up some emerging market stocks today.…
The easiest way to do this is with EEM or another major emerging market fund. These funds will give you broad exposure to emerging markets. Once you build a core position in emerging markets, you could consider investing in individual emerging markets. Right now, three of our favorite emerging markets are Poland, Colombia, and India.

As for U.S. stocks, I wouldn’t encourage everyday investors to short the S&P 500 like Gundlach recommends. Instead, I suggest you be very selective about what U.S. stocks you own. Avoid stocks trading at nosebleed valuations. Own companies with resilient business models and little debt.

The article “The Bond King” Says Short US Stocks was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Doctors Speak Out and Traders Listen

Our readers, and traders in general, are a smart bunch so we know you will appreciate this. We want to let you know about something I don't think you'll want to miss. Two of the pioneers of "natural health" websites, Andrew Saul and Dr. Joe Mercola, are featured in a ground breaking new movie which has now been watched over one million times online. It's called "That Vitamin Movie".

Good news is they have just made it available for people to view free of charge, but just for 8 days. It's their way of getting the word out about the film and at the same time, letting as many people watch it as possible.

So don't miss this great chance to see this first class documentary before they take it down again on May 12th.

Just go HERE to view. I promise you it's a great investment of your time.

Here's to good health and a long, healthy lifetime of trading,

Ray C. Parrish
aka the Crude Oil Trader

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Option and stock investing involves risk and is not suitable for all investors. Only invest money you can afford to lose in stocks and options. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The trade entry and exit prices represent the price of the security at the time the recommendation was made. The trade record does not represent actual investment results. Trade examples are simulated and have certain limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of May 1st through May 5th ended with the SP500 hitting a new record high on a rebound in U.S. job growth, U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by 211,000 jobs last in April. After plummeting a day earlier crude oil and energy prices rebounded on news that Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to join in on OPEC production cuts.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the June contract are up 60 cents this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 46.10 a barrel breaking the low that was hit on March 27th at 47.63 this week. I think prices could re-test the November low around the $42 level as the trend remains to the downside. Crude oil prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average as the precious metals & the entire energy sector continue to be under pressure over the last several weeks. My only recommendation is a short natural gas position. The chart structure in crude oil is not that great, and I will wait for the monetary risk to be lowered. I'm certainly not advising any type of bullish position as this markets trend is negative and coupled with the fact of very poor fundamentals as worldwide supplies are massive as now the problem could be waning demand. Oil prices traded above $53 in mid April as prices have now dropped about $7 a barrel rather quickly, so let's keep a close eye on this market for a possible short position in the coming days ahead.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Gold futures in the June contract are unchanged this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 1,228 an ounce after settling last week at 1,268 down about $60 and continuing its bearish momentum. I was looking at a short position. However, I did not take the trade as the chart structure and the risk did not meet my criteria to enter into a trade. I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as I still think lower prices are ahead. Gold futures have now hit a 7 week low trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average. I will look for some type of price rally before entering a short position as the next major level of support is all the way down to the 1,200 level with silver and platinum hitting recent lows helping to put pressure on gold prices. If the 1,200 level is broken we could retest the contract lows that were hit on December 15th 2016 at the 1,130 level. I see no reason to own gold at present as the stock market continues to move higher on a weekly basis as that's where all the action is at the moment.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 17.26 while currently trading at 16.33 an ounce. It's down nearly $1 for the trading week and selling off about $2.40 since the April 17th high around 18.72. That was a 5 month high and prices have just absolutely fallen out of bed. I have not been involved in silver for several months as the chart structure is terrible at the present time therefore the monetary risk does not meet my criteria, and it looks to me that prices could retest the December 23rd low around 15.84. Prices are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the short term trend is lower as money flows are coming out of the precious metals and into the equity markets. The volatility in silver and many of the other commodity sectors is starting to rise as we enter the volatile summer season. I'm not involved in any precious metals at the current time as I was stopped out of copper earlier in the week.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

The NASDAQ 100 in the June contract settled last Friday in Chicago at 5580 while currently trading at 5637 up nearly 60 points and continuing to hit record highs on a weekly basis. I'm not involved in this market, but I am bullish and I do think prices are headed higher. If you're long a futures contract, I would place the stop-loss under the 10 day low standing at 5471 as the risk is still about $3,300 per mini contract plus slippage & commission, but I'm certainly not recommending any type of short position as this market has good momentum to the upside. Obamacare looks to be on its last legs with the House of Representatives passing phase 1 of the new healthcare bill which is also bullish this market. I think that the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 will soon follow, but the tech industry is on fire with outstanding earnings almost across the board with Google and Amazon continuing to propel this market higher. The NASDAQ is trading far above it's 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher. Low-interest rates and great optimism about future growth in the United States continue to push prices higher.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Wheat, Sugar, Corn and more....Just Click Here!

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, NASDAQ 100 and More

Trading for the week of April 24th through April 28th ended with the 3 major indexes again closing lower. The markets appear overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June contracts extend this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will be hard...or impossible to project.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Natural gas futures in the June contract are currently trading at 3.28 after settling last Friday in New York at 3.19. I have been recommending a short position from the 3.17 level and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 3.33. The original risk was around $800 per 2 mini contracts plus slippage and commission. The chart structure in natural gas is outstanding at the present time as prices are above their 20 and 100 day moving average. Colder temperatures in the Midwestern part of the United States are pushing up prices here the last several days, but I will remain short & place the proper stop loss. Many of the commodity markets have experienced incredibly choppy trends in 2017. However, we are entering the summer months and historically speaking the trends and the volatility come back, so we will have to be patient. Natural gas supplies are still extremely high and that is why this market has been in a bearish trend for several years.
Trend: Lower- Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Gold futures in the June contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,289 an ounce while currently trading at 1,267 down about $20 for the week. I'm currently sitting on the sidelines as prices have now hit a 2 week low and my bias is to the downside. I am bullish the stock market & I think money flows are going to continue to come out of the precious metals and into the equity market and I'm looking at a short position in the next week or so. Gold prices are trading under their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average topping out around the 1,300 level 2 weeks ago. Prices have been in rally mode in 2017 due to geopolitical tensions throughout the world. I've stated in many previous blogs these always seem to fade away and that's exactly what's happening right now as silver prices continue their decline and I think that will start to put pressure on gold prices here in the short term. If you are bearish gold, my recommendation would be to sell at today's price level while placing the stop loss above 1,300 as an exit strategy. I will continue to sit on the sidelines as I'm waiting for better chart structure. Therefore, the monetary risk would be lowered as the risk is too high in my opinion at this point time. However, I am certainly bearish gold.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the July contract have traded lower 9 out of the last 10 trading sessions after settling last Friday in New York at 17.93 while currently trading at 17.22 down over $0.70 for the trading week hitting a 6 week low. I'm not currently involved in this market as the chart structure is terrible. Therefore, the monetary risk is too high. Silver prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average with major support back down at the 17 level as the equity markets in the United States continue to hit all time highs. Money flows are coming out of the precious metals so avoid this market as there really is no trend. At the current time, my only recommendation in the precious metals is a short a copper position. I'm negative on gold, but not involved as I still think stocks move higher. Therefore, the precious metals should continue to drift lower. Avoid this market at the present time & look at other trends with better chart structure and a better risk/reward scenario as the trends in 2017 have been tough to come by.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

The NASDAQ 100 settled last Friday in Chicago at 5442 while currently trading at 5581 up about 140 points for the week hitting another record high this week. As I've talked about in previous blogs, I'm not involved in this market. However, I'm extremely bullish and still think higher prices are ahead as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bearish position as this trend is very strong. The problem with this market is the chart structure is poor and there is a price gap around the 5460 level. I'm hoping that the price gets filled before entering into a bullish position as prices are trading far above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that this trend is strong and who knows how high prices can go. If you take a look at the Dow Jones and the S&P 500, they have not hit all time highs. I think both of those markets will continue to catch up to the NASDAQ as money flows are finally coming out of the precious metals and into the equity market as the Trump administration tax plans are finally starting to be released. That is extremely bullish for companies in the United States as now it could be a fair game worldwide for the first time in decades. Remember Apple Computer did $80 billion last year in profits and if you take a 20% reduction in taxes which is an increase of $16 billion for one company per year. That is why you see these markets explode to the upside and this will continue in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Poor

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Copper, Soybean, Wheat and more....Just Click Here!

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Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Gold, Silver, Copper, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of April 17th through April 21st ended with the 3 major indexes closing lower. This is a tough market to call right now as the different markets are giving mixed signals on the general direction of the economy and each individual market.

So as we like to say....no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Gold futures in the June contract are currently trading at 1,286 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,288 basically unchanged for the trading week as I am not involved in the gold market as prices remain right near contract highs due to tensions between North Korea and the United States coupled with the fact of a weaker U.S dollar in recent weeks. Gold prices are still trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher as we are ending the week on a positive note up about $4 as 1,300 is the main resistance and if that is broken I think we could go to levels before the U. S. election around 1,330 an ounce. At the current time I don't have any precious metal recommendations as silver is right near a 2 week low, but there is demand for gold as there is so much uncertainty in the world at this time and if you are bullish a futures position I would place the stop loss under the 10 day low standing at 1,248 which is still $40 away as the chart structure is not solid at the present time, as I do expect volatility to increase in the coming weeks as well.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Improving

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Silver futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 18.58 an ounce while currently trading at 17.98 down about $0.60 for the trading week as I've been discussing the May contract, but that is near expiration so I will focus on the July contract going forward as I'm not involved in this market at present. Silver prices are trading lower for the 5th consecutive day and if you are long futures contracts I would still place the stop under the 10 day low standing at 17.80 which is just an eyelash way as this market remains very choppy in my opinion. Silver prices are trading under their 20 day but still above their 100 day moving average really going nowhere over the last several months as I do not have any trade recommendations in the precious metals at the current time. The U.S dollar continues to flip flop up and down on a daily basis and that's why you're seeing the choppy commodity markets as gold prices have also stalled out around the 1,300 level as the precious metals had been rallying due to a possible conflict with North Korea & the United States which now seems to be diminishing on a daily basis.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

Copper futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 2.5860 a pound while currently trading at 2.5470 down about 400 points for the trading week right near a 3 month low. At present I'm not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead and if you are short place the stop at the 10 day high which in Monday's trade stands at 2.66 as the chart structure will start to improve in next week's trade, therefore, the monetary risk will be lowered as I'm still looking at a short position on any type of rally. Copper prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as there is major support at the 2.50 level and if that is broken, I think we could head substantially lower as the commodity markets are having a hard time sustaining any real bullish momentum. Copper prices were trading around the 2.10 level just let last October but with the Trump administration's possible stimulus plan sending copper prices to around the 2.80 level around quickly as now were kind of a no man's land, but the trend is lower so stay short.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Sugar futures in the July contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.57 a pound while currently trading at 16.38 down about 20 points for the trading week still stuck in a 2 week consolidation as prices are still right near a one year low. I'm not currently involved in sugar ,but if you are short as I do have clients who are involved in this marketplace your stop loss above the 10 day high at 17.13 as the next major level of support is the contract low which was hit on April 5th around 16.20 & if that is broken I think prices could head down to the low 15's rather quickly. Sugar prices are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average is telling you that the trend is to the downside as overproduction and lack of demand continue to keep a lid on prices as the soft commodities still look weak except for cotton prices. At present, I only have one soft recommendation & that is a bearish trade in the orange juice market, but I am bearish sugar as I do think lower prices are ahead as the chart structure is excellent at present, therefore, allowing you to place a tight stop loss.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Soybean, Corn, Lean Hog, Cattle, Cotton and more....Just Click Here!

Crude Oil Seasonality, Inventory Rebalancing and Production Cuts

The historical stock build from December 2014 through July 2016, and subsequent decline from August through December has led some to conclude that global stocks had started to rebalance. Instead, the normal seasonality in stocks had been masked by the high overproduction of OPEC, but then normal seasonality kicked in.

Global OECD inventories from past years demonstrate the normal seasonal patterns, with some variability. As shown in this graph, stocks normal build early in the year and peak around August. Stocks normally drop from September through December. But in 2015, the oversupply was so excessive that stock just kept building through the year. They finally peaked in July 2016, then dropped off due to normal seasonal demand. This normal pattern led to a false conclusion that the rebalancing of stocks had begun.

But according to Energy Department data, OECD stocks in March 2017 are 13 million barrels higher than December. And it projects that stocks are likely to peak in May this year, earlier than normal, but to end 2017 with stocks just 14 million lower than a year ago. This is based on the Energy Information Administration ((EIA)) assumption that OPEC does not hold production to its March level. Furthermore, the EIA projects global stocks to set new record highs in 2018, after the OPEC non OPEC cuts presumably end.

Effect of Production Cuts

Some argue that the 285 million barrel excess above the 5 year average as of the end of December should disappear in five to six months by dividing 285 million by 1.8 million barrels per day, the agreed upon size of the daily cut. But that math first assumes that supply was in balance with demand, makes no allowance for rising supplies, such as in the U.S., and it does not take into account the seasonality.

According to OPEC’s figures, global OECD stocks are likely to build both in the first and second quarters, and then decline in the second half of the year, assuming OPEC production remains at the March level.

There was one development last week, if true, did shift the inventory trend lower. The EIA revised its December estimate of OECD stocks down 105 million barrels, a major revision. That reduced the size of the glut to 201 million above its five year average.

Conclusions

The market dropped sharply in early March as a result of the continued rise in stocks. The market has falsely expected to see inventories to soon decline as a result of the production cuts. But seasonal factors need to be taken into account. We should see global stocks decline in the second half of 2017, assuming OPEC extends its cuts. And the decline may start earlier than normal because U.S. refinery utilization is ramping up faster and earlier than usual, thereby requiring more crude oil.

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Best,
Robert Boslego
INO.com Contributor - Energies

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar and More

Trading for the week of April 10th through April 14th ended with the Dow leading indexes closing lower as markets volatility rears it's ugly head due to fed spooked financials and weaker transports.

So no better time than right now to get the a heads up from our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give our readers a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees these markets headed. Mike has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Silver futures in the May contract are up 27 cents at 18.55 an ounce trading higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session breaking major resistance as I will be recommending a bullish position if prices close above 18.50 while then placing the stop loss under the 10-day low which was also Monday's low around 17.73 risking around $800 per mini contract plus slippage and commission. The chart structure is relatively solid at present as the next major level of resistance is last November's high around $19 an ounce as gold and silver prices have broken out to the upside. The 10 year note is significantly higher once again hitting a 6 month high as interest rates have been heading lower in recent weeks, and that is bullish the precious metals and commodities in general as there seems to be what they call a flight to quality which affects the bond and precious metals market as investors park their money as a so called safe haven. Silver prices are trading above their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is higher so let's look at playing this to the upside as the risk/reward are in your favor in my opinion.
Trend: Higher
Chart Structure: Solid

Get Chris Vermeulen's Short & Long Term Gold Projections

Copper futures in the May contract are higher by 250 points this Thursday in New York currently trading at 2.5700 a pound after hitting a 3 month low in yesterday's trade as I'm looking at a short position, however the chart structure is poor as the 10 day high stands around 2.71 as the risk/reward is not in your favor at present. However, I am certainly not recommending any type of bullish trade as the trend clearly is to the downside. I will wait for the chart structure to improve which could take a couple more days as prices are now trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend has turned negative in the short term with the next major level of support down to 2.50 which was tested back in December 2016 on multiple occasions only to rally every single time. This is a unique situation in the precious metals as bullish trends continue in gold and silver, however we have a bearish trend in copper and that can happen at certain times due to the fact that gold and silver are used as a flight to quality where copper is an industrial metal so keep a close eye on this market for a short position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the July contract are trading higher by 100 points at 141.25 in the July contract up in a slow manner with low volatility over the last several months as it looks to me that coffee prices are bottoming out in the short term. I have written about coffee many times in the past as I'm currently not involved in this market and haven't been for several months as I think prices are limited to the downside as it looks to me that the 138 level has held as prices are now at a 3 week high. Coffee prices are now trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average which stands at 148 as that is the critical level for the bullish momentum to continue in my opinion so keep a close eye on this market to the upside. At present, I am recommending a short position in orange juice and in cotton and I am also bearish sugar. However, coffee prices are starting enter to enter the month of May with the chance of a frost occurring in Brazil, so there could be a price premium put into this market to the upside and if a frost does occur prices move substantially higher & extremely quickly like they did in 1994.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

Sugar futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.77 a pound while currently trading at 16.83 in a lackluster holiday trading week as tomorrow is Good Friday as the markets will be closed. I have not been involved in the sugar market, but I have remained bearish over quite some time. I have clients that are short and if you are in this market to the downside place your stop loss above the 10 day high standing at 17.18 which is just an eyelash away as prices actually traded as high as 17.16 earlier in the trading session. Many of the commodity markets have reacted to the positive side over the last several days due to the fact that bond interest rates in the United States have been going lower and that is supporting prices, however if you're short, continue to place the proper stop and don't 2nd guess as I think that's the kiss of death over the course of time. Sugar futures are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower, but for this market to resume its bearish trend the 16 level has to be breached in my opinion.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Excellent

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Soybean, Wheat, Lean Hogs, Cotton and more....Just Click Here!