Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel as construction of single family dwellings jumped by the most since 2004, a sign the worst of the recession may have passed. Oil increased after the Commerce Department reported that construction of single family homes climbed 14 percent in June. The report also showed that total housing starts rose to the highest since November. Futures tumbled to $32.40 a barrel in December, a four year low, as the economic contraction curbed demand, allowing stockpiles to grow.....Complete Story
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Saturday, July 18, 2009
Friday, July 17, 2009
Where Is Oil Headed Next Week?
CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.
Crude Oil Surprises, Moves Above 10 Day Moving Average
Crude oil closed higher on Friday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.36 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
If August extends this week's rally, the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.99
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.07
First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97
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Natural gas closed slightly higher on Friday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.661 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Profit taking tempered early gains and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.661 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second resistance is today's high crossing at 3.79
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 34.36
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
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Natural Gas Heads to Seven Year Low as Supplies Swell
Natural gas futures, the worst performing commodity in 2009, may fall to seven year lows as demand drops with the deepest recession in half a century. Because chemical plants and power producers are burning less, gas inventories rose to 2.886 trillion cubic feet in the week ended July 10, the highest for any week in July since at least 1994, the U.S. Energy Department reported yesterday. Natural gas is down 36 percent this year on the New York Mercantile Exchange.....Complete Story
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Exxon Mobil Bets on Gas Locked in Colorado Mountains
At one time, even nuclear bombs couldn’t loosen ‘tight gas’ trapped in sandstone. Now Exxon Mobil says it has a way.
Oil and gas producers have known for decades that a massive bounty of natural gas lies beneath western Colorado's mountains. Getting at it, however, can be costly and complicated. With a potential gain of 1 billion cubic feet per day of output from its leased land in the deepest part of the gas rich Piceance Basin which would be about 2 percent of all U.S. gas production Exxon Mobil Corp. spent the last decade perfecting a way to drill less for more gas.....Complete Story
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Before You Blame Speculators for Oil ETF Moves…Could You Be One?
From Tom Lydon at ETF Trends....
Oil prices are nowhere near steady, and investors are perplexed as they try to figure out why. Analysts believe that there is one thing that is creating these gyrations in shares prices and exchange traded funds (ETFs): the dreaded speculator. But before you get out your torches…could you be one, too? What’s behind the wild gyrations in oil prices? Market watchers believe it is the investors themselves, the so called speculators.....Complete Story
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Chinese Oil Majors Collect Stake in Angola's Block 32 for $1.3B
Marathon announced that its subsidiary, Marathon International Petroleum Angola Block 32 Limited, has entered into a definitive agreement with CNOOC International Limited (CNOOC), and Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation (SINOPEC) under which CNOOC and SINOPEC will purchase an undivided 20 percent participating interest in the Production Sharing Contract and Joint Operating Agreement in Block 32 offshore Angola. The transaction has a total value of $1.3 billion, excluding any purchase price adjustments at closing, with an effective date of Jan. 1, 2009.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Struggles to Extend Rally, Analyst Calling For Lower Prices
Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.
Friday's pivot point for crude oil, our line in the sand is 61.59
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 62.35
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.99
First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97
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Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If August natural gas renews the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.16 is the next downside target.
The natural gas pivot point for Friday is 3.52
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.68
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.43
Second support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
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Thursday, July 16, 2009
Profits For Oil Industry Expected to Fall Sharply
For the second straight quarter, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell and most of the world’s largest oil companies are poised to report quarterly earnings that pale in comparison to a year ago, when results were buoyed by crude prices that topped out near $150 a barrel. The April-June results may be somewhat better than first quarter earnings, which were the lowest in several years, but declines of 50 percent or more from a year ago are likely to be the norm. That’s what happens when oil prices plunge more than 60 percent.....Complete Story
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Oil May Test Bollinger Support Near $58
Crude oil remains in a downtrend and may slip toward its lower Bollinger Band just above $58 a barrel as traders test the resilience of technical support levels, said the head of Cameron Hanover Inc. Oil traded above $62 a barrel this week as buyers stepped in after futures, which dropped July 13 to an eight week low of $58.32, were deemed undervalued, said Peter Beutel, president of the New Canaan, Connecticut-based trading advisory firm......Complete Story
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Where Is Crude Oil Headed on Friday
CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow [Friday].
Daily Crude Oil Prices From Market Masters
Yesterday's sharp rebound in crude oil prices reflected an increased appetite for risk as equity markets rallied thereby precipitating a consequent slide in the US Dollar. In addition the oil market appears to have discounted the higher than expected gasoline stocks, instead taking a bullish cue from the larger than anticipated draw in the crude inventory. It is interesting to note that it is exactly one year since the great oil price spike (14th July 2008 - Bastille Day) but following a drop of almost.....Complete Story
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Short Term Low May be in For Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 62.18
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.40
First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97
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August Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.426 signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.686 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews this summer's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.68
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.69
First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16
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Oil Rises Along With Equities as Roubini Predicts Recession End This Year
Crude oil rose to a one week high as equities climbed and economist Nouriel Roubini said the recession will end this year. Crude oil for August delivery rose 51 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $62.05 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 39 percent this year. Futures touched $62.17, the highest since July 8. Brent crude for August settlement declined 34 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $62.75 a barrel on London's.....Complete Story
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Natural Gas Futures Surge After Report Shows Narrowing Surplus
Natural gas futures surged to their biggest gain in four months after a government report showed a narrowing U.S. stockpile surplus. An inventory increase of 90 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 10 sent supplies to 2.886 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. The total was 18.7 percent higher than the five-year average, down from 19.3 percent in last week’s report and the fourth consecutive narrowing. “We’re seeing the impact of the rig count drops,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFG Best in Chicago.....Complete Story
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Jordan Parliament Approves Shell Oil Exploration Deal
The Jordanian Parliament has approved a multibillion-dollar concession agreement with Royal Dutch Shell PLC to explore oil from Jordan's vast oil shale resources, a source at the country's Natural Resources Authority said Thursday. "The council of deputies has ratified the agreement during a session held Wednesday," the source told Dow Jones Newswires. Shell is expected to spend around $500 million on exploration, assessment and designs on the project.....Complete Story
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Renewed Pressure Forthcoming for Crude Oil
From Mike Paulenoff at The Market Oracle....
My pattern work in nearby crude oil argues for more weakness after this little bounce off of the $58.00 area (into the $62.50-$63.00 area max). If weakness resumes as anticipated, then oil should head for new reaction lows in the $55-$53 target zone to complete the first down leg in the aftermath of the recovery rally from the January low at $32.70 to the June high at $73.23. Let’s notice that both the weekly momentum (relative strength) and weekly stochastics.....Complete Story
OPEC Output Cut Likely if Oil Falls Below $55
OPEC will likely cut production if crude oil prices fall below $55 a barrel by September, a member of Kuwait's Supreme Petroleum Council (SPC) said Wednesday. "OPEC will get concerned if the price goes to $55 or below because that's where a lot of revenue will be lost from lower prices, regardless of demand," Imad al-Atiqi told news agency Zawya Dow Jones in a phone interview. "Most of these countries, including Saudi Arabia, need the price to be above $55-60 to maintain budget expenditures," he added. The SPC oversees Kuwait's oil interests......Complete Story
Crude Oversold, Signals Hint Short Term Low is Near
Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.35 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the February-June rally crossing at 54.97 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.47
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 65.35
First support is Monday's low crossing at 58.32
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 54.97
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Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.669 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 3.155 is the next downside target.
Thursday pivot point for natural gas is 3.36
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.53
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.67
First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.23
Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.16
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Oil Little Changed as Equities Gain, China’s Economy Revives
Crude oil was little changed after rising yesterday as equities rallied and China’s economy showed signs of rebounding from its weakest growth in almost a decade. U.S. stocks gained 3 percent after Intel Corp. forecast sales that beat analysts’ estimates and gauges of manufacturing improved. China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the country’s statistics bureau said today. That was more than the 7.8 percent median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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