Oil Rises Above $71 as Dollar Tumbles, OPEC Ministers Gather

Crude oil rose above $71 a barrel after the dollar declined, spurring demand for commodities, and as OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna to decide on output levels. Oil increased the most in more than two weeks and gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce as the U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level this year against the euro and on speculation inflation will accelerate. The oil market is in “good shape,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, signaling the group is unlikely to change output quotas. “Today’s move in oil is all about the dollar and inflation concerns,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “These concerns are also reflected in the gold market, which broke through resistance at the important $1,000 level”.....Read the entire article

Schlumberger CEO Says Smaller Services Companies to Fold or Merge

Chief Executive Andrew Gould of oilfield services giant Schlumberger predicts that further consolidation in the services industry, as well as the fall of smaller U.S. rivals, is likely to occur in the year ahead, according to a report by Dow Jones Newswires.

"There will be even more consolidation of smaller services companies in the U.S., if not mortality for some, as some will just not be able to service their debts," Gould said at the Offshore Europe conference in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Gould cited the cancellation or delaying of industry projects, which has made capital less readily available, as one of the primary challenges the oilfield services sector has faced during 2009.

From the staff at Rigzone

Crude Oil Rises the Most in More Than a Month as Dollar Tumbles

Crude oil rose the most in more than a month after the dollar declined, spurring demand for commodities, and as OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna to decide on production levels. Oil topped $71 a barrel and gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce as the U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level this year against the euro and on speculation inflation will accelerate. The oil market is in “good shape,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, signaling the group is unlikely to change output quotas.“Today’s move in oil is all about the dollar and inflation concerns,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil's consolidation from 67.43 is still in progress and further recover cannot be ruled out. But still, another fall is still in progress as long as 71.60 resistance holds. Break of 67.43 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has resumed for 65.23 support next. Break there will confirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has completed and will bring deeper fall to test this key support level. On the other hand, strong rebound above 65.23, followed by break of 71.60 resistance will suggest that fall from 75.0 is a correction only and rise from 58.32 is still in progress. Intraday bias will then be flipped back to the upside for a 75.0 and then long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2]. In the bigger picture, there is no.....Read the entire article

Venezuela, Iran Ink Oil Invest Deals for South Pars, Dokobuki Field

Iran and Venezuela signed three oil deals Sunday during a Venezuelan presidential visit as the Islamic republic tries to mitigate the risk of new sanctions, Iranian news agencies said Monday. The accords were signed as Tehran is coming under increased international pressure over its nuclear program, including a threat to enforce sanctions against import products to Iran. The semi-official Mehr news agency said on Monday that Iran and Venezuela signed three memorandums of understanding in the energy sector in Tehran on Sunday as part of a visit to the country by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They include two agreements of reciprocal investments in Iran and Venezuela each worth $760 million, according to Mehr and Shana, Iran's Oil Ministry news agency.....Read the entire article

Iran Sees OPEC Maintaining Current Oil Output

Iran, the second largest exporter of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, predicted on Sunday the cartel will maintain current oil output at its meeting next week, despite producers being unhappy with the prevailing price of crude. "There is a feeling among OPEC oil ministers that the group wants to maintain current ouput levels," Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's representative to OPEC, told AFP ahead of Wednesday's meeting of the group in Vienna. "I think it is unlikely we will see any noticeable change. Based on comments already made by OPEC ministers, the output ceiling will not change." OPEC, whose 12 members pump 40% of the world's oil, agreed in late 2008 to remove a massive 4.2 million barrels a day of output from the market in a bid to shore up crumbling prices......Read the entire article

BP: Best in Class

Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, argues that BP's recent oil discovery provides much needed growth potential.



Get a current trend analysis for BP.....Just Click Here!

Thin Trading Seen In Commodties While Stocks Surge

Crude oil price continues hovering around 68 level in European morning. We believe thin trading remains throughout the as US and Canada are on public holidays. Stock markets in Asia and Europe gain amid expectations that G-20 leaders will collaborate to oversee the global financial system. Stock markets in Asia advanced with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising +1%. In Japan, Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed +1.3% to 10320. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index edged +0.68% higher to 2881 and Hong Kong&'s Hang Seng Index gained +1.5% to 20629. In Europe, benchmark shares surge. UK&'s FTSE 100 Index opens higher and is currently rising +2.6% to 4923. Both Germany&'s DAX and France&'s CAC 40 also add +1.5% to 5465 and 3651, respectively. Finance ministers and central bank.....Read the entire article

Oil Rises as Weaker Dollar Encourages Buying, Equities Climb

Crude oil rose for a second day as a weaker dollar encouraged investors to buy commodities and stronger equity markets signaled optimism the economic recovery remains on track. Oil rose, tracking stock markets in Europe and Asia, as the Group of 20 nations agreed on steps to shore up the global financial system. The U.S. currency weakened against the euro for a second day. All 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted OPEC will maintain its production target at 24.845 million barrels a day at a Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna. “Oil is a bit supported by the weaker dollar and stronger equities,” said Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “We know that OPEC will not cut, the question is how this will be taken by the market”.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Falls Below $68 on Speculation Global Supplies Ample

Crude oil dropped below $68 a barrel on speculation supplies are ample as the end of summer driving in the U.S. compounds already weak global demand. A report tomorrow will probably show consumer credit in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, fell for a sixth month as banks restricted lending and rising unemployment damped borrowing. OPEC member states are unlikely to change output levels when they meet this week, Agence France-Presse reported, citing Iran’s representative to the group, Mohammad Ali Khatibi.“The trade is kind of anticipating a period of slack seasonal demand coming up, which I think is possibly going to keep the upside fairly limited,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst with Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “We’ll just have to see if the refineries start to scale back their runs”.....Read the entire article

Natural Gas: Extreme Contango Suggests Caution for E&P Companies

The price of Natural Gas is hovering just below $3, which is about the median price over the past two decades. Or is it? While the spot price has garnered lots of headlines recently for its collapse, the future price has declined much much less so. The quoted price for a year from now is above $5. Clearly the spot price is very depressed relative to the future price. In fact, it is at a record percentage differential. In the chart below (click to enlarge), I have divided the one year forward price by the 1-month forward price. The mean spread has been 6%. You will see I included lines for +/- 2 standard deviations as well. The current relationship is more than 4 standard deviations from the mean. At this point.....Read the entire article

Where is Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.

Despite sliding prices, the LNG keeps coming

Despite the steady drop in natural gas prices, Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas terminals are expecting a steady stream of shipments in the coming weeks. Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal received an LNG shipment at its dock this week and a second tanker is due by the middle of next week. And the Trunkline LNG terminal in Lake Charles, La., could see as many as three new tanker loads of LNG in the coming weeks, according to Waterborne Energy, a Houston-based LNG market tracking firm. “The last place you would expect to see a potential 20 bcf build in LNG imports in today's weak natural gas environment would be the U.S. Gulf,” Waterborne Energy said in a report Thursday.....Read the entire article

Gold Shines Again While Crude Loses Glitter

Star of the week was obviously gold which broke out of recent broad trading range and set to resume the long uptrend with target above 1000. We find the rally impressive as the dollar remained range bounded. While momentum looks strong, we would be more convinced that the precious metal will make new high above 1033.9 if a close above 1000 is seen. We will have 3 central bank meetings in the coming week, namely RBNZ, BOE and BOC. While we expect no change in monetary policies, policymakers' outlook on economic development and exit strategies from stimulus should provide guidance on currency and gold movements.On the other hand, crude oil's rally has lost steam after jumping to 75. Focus next week will be OPEC's meeting, although it's broadly anticipated that the cartel will not alter production quota. In coming months, crude oil should trade within a range of 65-75.....Read the entire article

Why $200 Oil Is Just Around the Corner

Jeff Rubin believes that oil prices are going to escalate much higher. In his book "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller," Rubin foretells $200 oil and a vastly transformed global economic picture coming into focus very soon. The premise of Rubin's book is that oil is a finite resource and so called "easy" oil is waning. Inevitably production will be unable to keep up with the growing demand worldwide, and the price of oil will skyrocket.

The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years, Rubin correctly predicted the price of oil reaching $50 in 2005 and $100 in 2007. No one believed him then, either. "There continues to be widespread skepticism regarding my oil price forecast," Rubin told Rigzone. "As I noted in the book, few people have ever changed their minds during the entire history of the peak oil debate, at least insofar as 'experts' are concerned".....Read the entire article

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Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Is on ‘Slippery Slope’ Toward $60

Crude oil is on a “slippery slope” after failing to break through resistance and is set to test support at $60.43 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York. The failure of October oil futures to breach $75.27, the June 11 high, has made crude vulnerable to “significant decline,” according to Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson. Futures dropped more than $7 since touching $75 a barrel on Aug. 25. “We are right on a precipice here and are at a very important inflection point,” Ross said in a telephone interview. Settling below $68 a barrel yesterday “opens the door to testing $65 and $60.43, which was the low on July 13”.....Read the entire article

Mexico's Calderon: BP's Deepwater Find A Wake Up Call

Mexico needs more reforms to rapidly tackle the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shore up plummeting domestic oil production, President Felipe Calderon said Thursday. Calderon said BP PLC's giant deepwater oil discovery in the Tiber field, announced Wednesday, should serve as a wake up call for Mexico. State run Petroleos Mexicanos is legally blocked from teaming up with foreign oil companies that have more experience in the area."I hope this sign from the Gulf of Mexico tells us something," said Calderon in a radio interview.....Read complete article

Gas May Drop From Seven Year Low to $2, Options Show

Natural gas futures are poised to fall further after trading at the lowest in seven years in New York as stockpiles grew to a record for this time of year, according to options data and analysts. The cleaner burning fuel, down 56 percent this year, may plunge another 20 percent to below $2 per million British thermal units as new liquefied natural gas supplies come on stream, said Tony Regan, a consultant for Singapore based Tri-Zen International. Trading of bearish options on the U.S. Natural Gas Fund rose to a record as investors bet that the exchange traded fund tracking gas futures will keep tumbling.....Read entire article

Great Post From One of my Favorite Bears......When This Whole Thing is Over

One of the biosphere's most popular bears [in his defense, it is a bear market] is Atilla Demiray. He is one of the key figures at the wildly popular and controversial xtrends blog. He was kind enough to share his current chart work on crude oil and it is a treat. Look it over and please leave a comment on what you think, good or bad!

Click the chart to enlarge....


Check out his recent post When this whole thing is over...