Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening

Crude oil closed down $0.01 at $83.67 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in crude, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed up 16.2 cents at $4.203 today. Prices closed near the session high today and scored a bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart. A positive weekly gas storage report boosted the market today. Short covering was featured. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. Prices are trading sideways and choppy at lower price levels.

Gold futures closed down $6.10 at $1,142.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw some profit taking and pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil futures prices. The gold market is still a 2 1/2 month old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $1,170.70.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 45 points at 81.72 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two week high. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage and are regaining upside technical momentum.


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Crude Oil Declines as Greece’s Deficit Weakens Euro and Equities

Crude oil fell for the first time in three days after the European Union said Greece’s budget deficit last year was worse than previously forecast, sending equities and the euro lower. Oil slipped as much as 2.3 percent in New York after the U.S. currency’s gain dimmed the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. An Energy Department report yesterday showed that U.S. crude and fuel supplies increased last week as demand slipped in the world’s largest energy consuming country.

“The stuff out of Europe doesn’t get any better,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “The problems out of Europe continue to impact the dollar and raise concerns about economic growth.” Crude oil for June delivery dropped 95 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $82.73 a barrel at 11:50 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 4.2 percent this year. The EU’s statistics office said Greece’s deficit was 13.6 percent of GDP last year, topping the government’s two week old forecast of 12.9 percent. Greece’s widening deficit and questions about the accuracy of its economic data have undermined the credibility of the EU’s budget rules and contributed to the 7.2 percent slide in the euro this year.

The dollar traded at $1.3293 against the European currency, up 0.7 percent from yesterday. It was the greenback’s sixth straight increase. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 1 percent to 1,193.98. The Energy Department’s report showed crude oil stockpiles in the U.S. increased by 1.89 million barrels in the week ended April 16. Gasoline supplies rose 3.59 million barrels to 224.9 million, and inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, gained 2.1 million barrels to 148.9 million.....Read the entire article.

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Mid Week Silver, Crude Oil, SP500 & Gold Charts

It’s been, an interesting week as stocks and commodities claw their way back up after the end of week sell off on Friday. Most of the chart technical are pointing to another wave lower for gold, silver, oil and the broad market.

This next wave of selling would form an ABC retrace pattern on the commodity charts and this pattern is bullish. Also commodity prices would drop to key support levels which would most likely provide a low risk entry point depending on the price and volume action at that time. So lower price is good for the big picture which is higher prices.

The charts below are a quick visual of what I am seeing and thinking....

GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund Trading Chart
The gold etf trading fund is getting closer to completing is 4 month correction and start another rally if all goes well in the coming week or two. What I am looking for is gold to hit resistance at $113 and then drop to the $110 level which is a key support level.


SLV – Silver Exchange Traded Fund Trading Chart
SLV etf fund looks ready for a pullback also. Both gold and silver tend to move together and support would be tested here also.


USO – Oil Trading Fund Chart
USO shows that one more thrust down would bring prices to a key support level also.


SPY – SP500 Exchange Traded Fund Trading Chart
Stocks have been on fire the past few months but this rally looks to be getting long in the teeth. After a rally this strong without any pullbacks one has to think that when a correction does start it will be a very sharp sell off. I will point out a few years ago we saw this exact type of price action for the broad market and it continued higher for several more months before actually putting in a large correction. If we don’t see a large correction, then we would see similar price movement which we saw last November and December with the sideways choppy price action and slow rally higher.


Mid-Week Market Conclusion:
In short, I think the market is ready to finally take a breather. What I am looking for another sell off which will break the low for gold, silver, oil and SP500 last week. If this happens then panic would be triggered washing the market of all the traders who have been buying at these high levels (chasing prices).

Stocks have been very strong and new money continues to push prices higher so we could just see a relatively small pullback between 3-5% and then the rally could continue…. This would work very well with gold, silver and oil as they would be testing key support levels and should be ready for a another upward surge.

It doesn’t really matter what the market does as there will always be great opportunities. Waiting for quality setups requires discipline and focus because it is not very active. I see traders making all kinds of silly trades which chip away at their profits because they cannot sit and watch when they should be.

During slow times I actually focus on learning more about the markets going through charts, inter-market analysis comparing things….. That kills a ton of time and helps make you a better trader in the long run. So if you don’t see a good trade get out and do something fun or educational. Don’t just start trading the 5 minute charts because you want to trade…

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday

Crude oil's recovery was limited at 84.64 and subsequent break of 82.85 minor support argues that such recovery is completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37. Note that sustained trading below 80.37 fibo support will confirm that rise from 69.50 has completed after hitting 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00. In such case, deeper fall should be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 76.22 and below. On the upside, above 84.64 will turn focus back to 87.09 high.

In the bigger picture, note again that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


New Video: Has Crude Oil Topped Out for the Year?


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.





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Sorry Crude Oil Bulls....My Family is From Missouri. Show Me!

Crude oil closed down $0.17 at $83.68 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in crude, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the April high of $87.59 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 0.9 cents at $4.055 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $4.421.

Gold futures closed up $9.60 at $1,148.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw bargain hunting buying interest after recent selling pressure. The bulls have shows resilience and have kept a 2 1/2 month old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 15 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in more quiet trading. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 82.06.

Watch > New Video: Has Crude Oil Topped Out for the Year?

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Crude Oil Gains as Earnings Exceed Estimates, IMF Raises Global Growth Target

Crude oil rose as U.S. companies posted better than estimated earnings and the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global growth this year, signaling fuel consumption will climb. Oil rebounded after Morgan Stanley profits rose as fixed income trading revenue more than doubled from a year earlier. The IMF said the economy will expand 4.2 percent in 2010, the fastest pace since 2007, compared with a January projection of 3.9 percent. Prices dropped as much as 1.1 percent earlier when a report showed that U.S. supplies gained last week.

“These markets tend to move on expectations of what will be, rather than what is,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Round Earth Capital, a New York based hedge fund that focuses on food and energy. “The earnings are pointing to a significant recovery and today’s IMF report also points to increased growth. Demand is poised to grow, outpacing output.” Crude oil for June delivery rose 31 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $84.16 a barrel at 12:31 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $84.30 before the release of the inventory report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

U.S. supplies of crude oil rose 1.89 million barrels to 355.9 million, the Energy Department report showed. A 750,000 barrel drop was forecast, according to a Bloomberg survey. Inventories of crude at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York traded West Texas Intermediate oil is stored, surged 5.8 percent to 34.1 million barrels, the highest since the week ended Jan. 8. “There was a massive build at Cushing, which should be very bearish,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “Between mid-February and mid-April supplies at Cushing have gone from a year on year deficit of 13 percent to a 15 percent surplus.”

Reporter Mark Shenk can be contacted at mshenk1@bloomberg.net


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New Video: Has Crude Oil Topped Out for the Year?

There is no doubt about it, crude oil has been very choppy. There are two camps involved in the crude oil market: one is bullish and the other is bearish. In this new short video, we show you which camp we are in and what we think is going to happen to the crude oil market for the balance of the year.

You will also get to see the key areas that we have recently approached and reversed back down from, and why this area is so important for the future of crude oil.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We welcome your thoughts and comments regarding this posting so please feel free to leave a comment.


Watch > Has Crude Oil Topped Out for the Year?


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday

Crude oil's correction from 87.09 might have completed at 80.53 already, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for stronger rebound for retesting 87.09 high. On the downside, however, below 82.85 minor support will argue that recovery from 80.53 is completed and flip intraday bias back to the downside. Also, note that sustained trading below 80.37 fibo support will confirm that rise from 69.50 has completed after hitting 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00. In such case, deeper fall should be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 76.22 and below.

In the bigger picture, note again that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Clearly, OPEC Lost Control Of Oil In March

Non OPEC global oil supply increased in March and is now expected to average 51.53 million barrels per day (mb/d) for 2010, which is a 0.50 mb/d increase over 2009 according to Hellenic Shipping News (HSN). It is also an increase of 0.10 mb/d to the 2010 forecast from just a month ago.

HSN:
Russia supply in March marked a new post-Soviet record oil supply from Russia is expected to grow by 0.09 mb/d over 2009 to average 10.01 mb/d in 2010, representing an upward revision of 20 tb/d from recent evaluations. The healthy production figure in the first quarter, which came higher than previously expected, necessitated the upward revision. Russia oil production reached a new post Soviet record in March following strong production levels in January and February.

China supply to increase by 80 tb/d in 2010 China’s oil production is estimated to average 3.93 mb/d in 2010, an increase of 80 tb/d over the previous year and an upward revision of 40 tb/d from the previous month. The strong production figures from the first two months required the upward revision, which was the highest in the first quarter compared to other non-OPEC countries’ revisions.

Meanwhile, OPEC members continue to violate their group's production quota's and over produce. OPEC output rose 5.6% year over year in March to 29.2 mb/d. While OPEC says it would 'mull an output boost' at $100 oil, note they are already increasing output thanks to violations. So one has to wonder if $100 can even be reached, sustainably, despite some forecasts in the market.

OPEC's reference price for a basket of 12 crude oil types just dropped by $1.97 to $80.89 per barrel.

Reporter Vincent Fernando can be reached at The Business Insider


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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed up $0.81 at $83.94 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw a corrective bounce from recent strong selling pressure. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in crude, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed up 4.6 cents at $4.073 today. Prices closed near the session high today on short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $4.421.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 3 points at 81.13 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today in quieter trading. The bulls have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 82.06.

Gold futures closed up $4.70 at $1,140.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw a corrective bounce from selling pressure last Friday and on Monday. Higher crude oil prices added to buying interest in gold today. Uncertainty regarding the Goldman Sachs fraud charges from the SEC seem to have abated a bit, which also supported buying interest in gold today. No serious chart damage has occurred in gold, but the bulls need to show more power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily chart in place.

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Phil Flynn: Goldman Gets Rolled

Oil prices are beginning to shake off the fall-out from the Goldman Sachs fraud allegations yet at the same time, the market is worried about the longer term ramifications of these charges. Set aside the fact of Goldman’s guilt or innocence at this point, it's the larger issue of confidence in the overall market place that raises the largest concern. The timing of these charges that we now know was voted at the SEC along party lines makes one worry about the political influence over the market place. If The SEC is being controlled by the government to push financial reform it could be more dangerous to the economy than Goldman’s alleged fraud.

The Wall Street Journal Editorial page that I wanted to quote yesterday until my computer crashed stated, “The Securities and Exchange Commission's complaint against Goldman Sachs is playing in the media as the Rosetta Stone that finally exposes the Wall Street perfidy and double dealing behind the financial crisis." Our reaction is different: Is that all there is? After 18 months of investigation, the best the government can come up with is an allegation that Goldman misled some of the world's most sophisticated investors about a single 2007 "synthetic" collateralized debt obligation (CDO)? Far from being the smoking gun of the financial crisis, this case looks more like a water pistol. The Journal said, “Let's deconstruct the supposed fraud, in which Goldman worked with hedge fund investor John Paulson, who wanted to bet on a decline in the subprime mortgage market. The SEC alleges that Goldman let Paulson & Co. dictate the mortgage backed securities on which investors would speculate via the CDO, and then withheld from investors Paulson's role on the other side of the transaction.

The SEC also alleges that Goldman deceived ACA Management a unit of the largest investor on the other side of the deal and the firm officially selecting which mortgage backed securities everybody would bet on into believing that Mr. Paulson was actually investing in an "equity" tranche on ACA's side of the deal. Regarding the second point, the offering documents for the 2007 CDO made no claim that we can find that Mr. Paulson's firm was betting alongside ACA. The documents go so far as to state that an equity tranche was not offered by Goldman, as ACA must have known since it helped put the deal together and presumably read the documents. The SEC complaint itself states that ACA had the final word on which assets would be referenced in the CDO. And in some cases, ACA kicked out of the pool various assets suggested by the Paulson firm.

More fundamentally, the investment at issue did not hold mortgages, or even mortgage backed securities. This is why it is called a "synthetic" CDO, which means it is a financial instrument that lets investors bet on the future value of certain mortgage backed securities without actually owning them. Yet much of the SEC complaint is written as if the offering included actual pools of mortgages, rather than a collection of bets against them. Why would the SEC not offer a clearer description? Perhaps the SEC's enforcement division doesn't understand the difference between a cash CDO—which contains slices of mortgage backed securities and a synthetic CDO containing bets against these securities.

More likely, the SEC knows the distinction but muddied up the complaint language to confuse journalists and the public about what investors clearly would have known: That by definition such a CDO transaction is a bet for and against securities backed by subprime mortgages. The existence of a short bet wasn't Goldman's dark secret. It was the very premise of the transaction.” The Journal also points out that, “By the way, Goldman was also one of the losers here. Although the firm received a $15 million fee for putting the deal together, Goldman says it ended up losing $90 million on the transaction itself, because it ultimately decided to bet alongside ACA and IKB. In other words, the SEC is suing Goldman for deceiving long-side investors in a transaction in which Goldman also took the long side. So Goldman conspired to defraud . . . itself?

The Journal asks, "Did Goldman have an obligation to tell everyone that Mr. Paulson was the one shorting subprime?" Goldman insists it is, "normal business practice" for a market maker like it not to disclose the parties to a transaction, and one question is why it would have made any difference. Mr. Paulson has since become famous for this mortgage gamble, from which he made $1 billion. But at the time of the trade he was just another hedge fund trader, and no long side investor would have felt this was like betting against Warren Buffett.

“Not that there are any innocent widows and orphans in this story. Goldman is being portrayed as Mr. Potter in "It's a Wonderful Life," exploiting the good people of Bedford Falls. But a more appropriate movie analogy is, "Alien vs. Predator," with Goldman serving as the referee. Mr. Paulson bet against German bank IKB and America's ACA, neither of which fell off a turnip truck at the corner of Wall and Broad Streets."

Some would argue that the global economy suffered when the housing bubble burst yet at the same time are these financial instruments to blame or is the government, the great enablers, and their policies that allowed the housing bubble to develop? The IBD points out that the financial reform bill fails to address some of the root causes of the financial crisis like, “The 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) was used as a bludgeon to force private banks to lend to unworthy bowers. Politicized (Government Sponsored Entities) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that became the chief funding mechanism for this corrupt housing policy and its bad loans."

For crude oil the Goldman news was bearish but as the markets asses the facts of the case it is unlikely that this case will lead to many others. The White House is already trying to distance themselves from the Goldman charges because any implication that the White House had a say in the timing of these allegations may indeed be fraudulent in itself and an abuse of power. The White House cannot be seen as having a major regulatory authority being used to further its own political agenda. This is not Venezuela for heaven’s sakes. It isn’t, is it?

The volcano pressured oil with an estimated demand destruction of roughly 2 million barrels of oil a day, some due to canceled flights and also decreased economic activity. The bulls' confidence has been shaken and oil needs to continue its rebound. The removal of economic optimism could mean the focus on over supply and sluggish demand may weigh. We still feel the best way to play the market right now is to take advantage of these very wide trading ranges.


You can reach Phil at pflynnpfgbest.com and watch him every day on the Fox Business Network!


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday

With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is in place at 80.53, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37. Intraday bias in crude oil is turned neutral and stronger recovery might be seen, to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 83.82). Break there will bring retest of 87.09 high. On the downside, note that decisive break of 80.37 fibo support will confirm that rise from 69.50 has completed after hitting 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00. In such case, deeper fall should be seen towards 61.8% retracement at 76.22 and below.

In the bigger picture, note again that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.


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Crude Oil Climbs From a Three Week Low on Forecast of U.S. Stockpile Drop

Oil rose from a three week low on speculation a report tomorrow will show crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, declined for a second week and as rising equity prices buoyed investor sentiment. Inventories in the U.S. probably fell 600,000 barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed. U.S. stocks yesterday reversed losses as Citigroup Inc. beat profit estimates and Bloomberg reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission was divided in its decision to sue Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Asian stocks rose today, led by finance companies.

“The market ran a little hard on the downside,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “Oil has come back quite a bit” and people are reconsidering some of the impact they were expecting from the action against Goldman, he said. Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 93 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $82.38 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $81.96 at 12:13 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract dropped 2.2 percent to $81.45, the lowest settlement since March 26. The more actively traded June contract climbed 32 cents to $83.45. Futures have gained 3.3 percent this year.

Oil tumbled yesterday after the SEC sued Goldman, prompting investors to step away from risky assets such as commodities. Air traffic disruptions caused by a volcanic eruption under Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull glacier cut jet fuel demand in Europe by about two thirds, according to Deutsche Bank.

Crude Stockpiles
Oil has fallen in eight of the nine sessions since April 6, when the market reached an 18 month high of $87.06. Prices rose on April 14 after the Energy Department reported an unexpected 2.2 million barrel decline in U.S. crude oil inventories. It was the first drawdown in 11 weeks. Tomorrow’s report will probably show a second decline as refiners increased operating rates for a fifth week to meet summer gasoline demand, according to the Bloomberg survey. Stockpiles of the motor fuel probably rose 140,000 barrels, based on the median estimate from 11 analysts polled.

U.S. oil stockpiles remain high and many commodities have “moved ahead of their fundamentals,” said Moore at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Brent crude oil for June settlement climbed as much as 57 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $84.80 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $84.64 at 12:17 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract settled at $84.23 after losing 2.1 percent, the most since Feb. 25.

Reporters Gavin Evans and Yee Kai Pin can be reached at gavinevans@bloomberg.net and kyee13@bloomberg.net





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Dan Dicker: Oil Down....Blame Goldman

Dan Dicker explains how Goldman Sachs fraud charges have sent oil speculators running for cover.




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Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed down $1.60 at $81.64 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh three week low. No serious chart damage has been inflicted in crude, but the bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon to keep the uptrend on the daily bar chart in place. The Goldman Sachs fraud news and the volcanic ash that is shutting down air travel in Europe are bearish factors for crude. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $3.955 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $4.334.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 11 points at 81.06 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 82.06.

Gold futures closed down $1.30 at $1,135.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh two week low early on, following Friday's steep losses that produced a bearish weekly low close. The key "outside markets" were in a bearish posture for gold today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher, while crude oil prices were lower. Uncertainty regarding the Goldman Sachs fraud charges from the SEC also added to selling pressure in gold today.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday

Crude oil dives to as low as 80.53 today and further decline is still in favor. As discussed before, rise fro 69.50 should be over after hitting 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 87.00. Decisive break of 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 87.09 at 80.37 will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 76.22 and below. On the upside, above 83.35 will flip intraday bias back to the upside and put focus back to 87.09 high instead.

In the bigger picture, note again that medium term rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Our preferred view is that rise from 33.2 is in form of a three wave structure (73.23, 65.05, ?) and should be near to completion. Strong resistance is expected around 90 psychological level, which coincide with 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 and 61.8% projection of 33.2 to 73.23 from 65.05 at 89.79, and bring reversal. Hence, even though another rally cannot be ruled out, upside potential should be limited. On the downside, break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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ExxonMobil CEO: Recovery Requires Stable Policies

The best way for government to kick start the economy is to provide a level playing field for competition and create stable policies that will enable long term investments, Rex Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation, said today. "Leaders in government and in business agree that we face an urgent need to revitalize our economy and spur job creation," Tillerson said in a speech to the Houston World Affairs Council, where he accepted the Jesse H. and Mary Gibbs Jones International Citizen of the Year Award.

"To achieve these goals, we must unleash the extraordinary power of private citizens to seize new opportunities in free markets. Industry can achieve this by taking risks, investing in the future, hiring new workers, expanding operations and making our economy more competitive. But we can only achieve this when government creates a level playing field for competition and upholds a stable policy framework conducive to long term investments."

Tillerson said America's businesses, both small and large, need to be able to plan for the future in order to make investments that will create badly needed jobs for the nearly one in 10 Americans who are unemployed and millions more who are underemployed or no longer seeking work. "Every business leader faces challenges in assessing the future, but in tough economic times government can help by keeping a steady hand on the rudder. If the private sector knows that government will stay the course and resist the temptation to over-regulate, it can invest with confidence." According to recent studies, the oil and natural gas industry contributes more than $1 trillion a year to the U.S. economy and directly and indirectly supports more than 9 million jobs.

"These economic contributions are even more important in light of the global economic downturn and the slow job creation of the nascent recovery," said Tillerson. "I believe our industry can, and must, be part of our national efforts to achieve more robust economic growth." Tillerson said much focus has been placed on the role small businesses play in job creation, but studies show that large corporations are also critical engines of job creation and employment. "As big businesses flourish, small businesses are created as the direct suppliers, contractors and providers of other services essential to the success of the larger businesses. With the right public policies, the energy industry and companies like ExxonMobil can lead the way back with our disciplined investments in new projects, new technologies, and new jobs."

Tillerson said that when government creates an environment where businesses can be creative, take risks, and grow, the private sector will repay that trust by creating millions of new jobs but also through unequaled acts of private charity and corporate citizenship. ExxonMobil's 80,000 employees are proud of their contributions in providing for social development, environmental protection and the company's most visible contribution, supporting economic growth and development by providing reliable energy, well paying jobs, tax revenues, technological innovation, and shareholder value. ExxonMobil's corporate citizenship efforts help communities achieve long term economic and social development, through programs focused on battling malaria, increasing economic opportunities for women and supporting improvements in science, technology, engineering and math education.

"We have a long record of going beyond our primary responsibility of delivering the energy that benefits our consumers, shareholders and business partners," said Tillerson. "As a company and as individuals, the men and women of ExxonMobil are dedicated to being good corporate citizens wherever we operate. We believe this ideal is so integral to our long term success that we have built it into our business model and our corporate governance. In other words, we believe our commitment to citizenship is fundamental to our year to year success as a company."

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