Are Crude Oil Signals Turning Neutral? Here's Fridays Numbers

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.49 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Fridays pivot point for crude oil is 76.92

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.92
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.49

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Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.628 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Fridays pivot point for natural gas is 5.107

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.931
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.628

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Where Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Signals Remain Bullish Despite Overbought Condition

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.13. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 78.46. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.48. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.23.

Natural gas closed higher on Thursday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.580 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.895. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.580.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last week's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the decline off last week's high, the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71 is the next downside target. If September renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.30. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.61. First support is today's low crossing at 85.80. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71.

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews this spring's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 1198.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1219.50. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1198.10.


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Phil Flynn: End Game In Sight

Hey, can I get some of those 20 billion dollars in BP's escrow account? This BP spill has caused me to lose sleep and has given me some emotional stress. That should be worth $20,000-30,000.00 at least! BP put up hoping to get Obama to shut up and perhaps to get assurances that the Obama administration and BP will both survive. Obama got a much needed political win and I am sure BP got some things in return as it appears the bitter rivals came together to save their own skins. BP made the deal to save their company and the President made a deal to save his presidency as it is getting harder and harder to guess which side of this duo was less popular with the American people.

This has become a political nightmare for Obama as the American people have been amazed at how inept he has been at responding to this crisis. He has put politics ahead of the best interests of the people down in the Gulf with his failure to waive the Jones act and by misleading the American people about expert calls for a drilling moratorium that has destroyed his rapport and trust with the American public. Even his own supporters were turning on him. Obama needed BP and BP needed Obama and it makes one wonder why the administration was not involved with and talking with BP all along. At the end of the day.....Read the entire article.



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Crude Oil Falls From Six Week High After Increase in U.S. Jobless Claims

Crude oil fell from a six week high after U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose and manufacturing in the Philadelphia region expanded at a slower rate than forecast, casting doubt on the strength of the economic recovery. Oil dropped for the first time in four days as the Labor Department said the number of Americans seeking jobless benefits last week climbed to a one month high. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased in June to the lowest level since August.

“The Philadelphia Fed and the jobless claims are sparking concerns about economic growth and the resulting energy demand or lack thereof,” said Kyle Cooper, a managing director at energy consultant IAF Advisors in Houston. Crude oil for July delivery lost $1.37, or 1.8 percent, to $76.30 a barrel at 12:40 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have risen 7.4 percent in the past year.

Initial jobless applications increased by 12,000 to 472,000 in the week ended June 12. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected 450,000 claims, according to the median forecast. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance rose, while those getting extended benefits dropped.

The Philadelphia Fed’s index dropped to 8 this month from 21.4 in May. Readings above zero indicate growth in the regional gauge, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. Economists forecast a decrease to 20, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg News survey.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Signals Remain Bullish After Overnight Profit taking

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.27 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.13
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 77.29

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.56
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.27

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.574 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Thursday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.046

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.574

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Crude Oil Bulls Take a Clear Near Term Technical Advantage

Crude oil closed up $0.67 at $77.61 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh four week high on more short covering and fresh speculative buying interest. The bulls have upside near term technical momentum and have the overall near term technical advantage. My bias is that a market low is in place and that it's likely price action will remain choppy and in a trading range between the May low of $67.15 and psychological resistance at $80.00.

Natural gas closed down 20.0 cents at $4.989 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking pressure from recent gains. Recent price action suggests a major market low is in place in natural gas and that prices can continue to trend higher in the near term. Prices are in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 16 points at 86.45 today. Prices closed near mid range today. While no serious chart damage has occurred recently, the bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Gold futures closed down $2.70 at $1,231.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today in quieter trading. Mild profit taking pressure was featured. The gold bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no solid early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. Prices are in a four month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.


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Crude Oil Breaches 200 Day Moving Average, May Retest Highs

Crude oil is set to surpass this year’s highs above $87 a barrel after breaching the 200 day moving average yesterday, a “major” chart resistance level, according to Schork Group Inc. Crude, which reached a 19 month high of $87.15 a barrel on May 3 before tumbling as much as 26 percent, yesterday settled above the moving average for the first time in a month. Prices also cleared the middle of two Bollinger Bands, which plot support and resistance levels based on volatility, further boosting chances of a rally, according to Stephan Schork, president of the Villanova, Pennsylvania based consultants.

“At this point it is now hard to argue against a retest of the highs from early May,” Schork said today in an instant message. Crude traded near a one month high after rising yesterday as U.S. equities gained, bolstering speculation fuel demand will increase. The contract for July delivery was at $76.92 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 2 cents, at 10:57 a.m. Singapore time. Futures have gained more than 9 percent in the past year.

Oil earlier this week was trending in the middle of two Bollinger Bands, indicating it may be “make it or break it time for the bulls,” Schork said in a note yesterday. With prices having advanced, the market may push toward the 100 day moving average, which is at $78.39 a barrel today, before the upper Bollinger Band at $79.18. The nine day Relative Strength Index also shows oil is “neither overbought nor oversold,” signaling short-term trends may be sustained, according to Schork.

“We have switched our bias to bullish on crude oil after concerns about offshore drilling and potential weakness in the dollar align to create significant upward potential despite an abundance of supply,” he wrote yesterday.

Via Bloomberg News

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Phil Flynn: The 90% Solution

What do you get when you put together a Nobel Prize winning physicist, national labs and experts from academia and other oil companies? You get what could be called a 90% solution. President Obama addressed the nation from the Oval Office and said that his efforts to wage war against the oil spill that is assaulting our shores and our citizens would result in capturing up to 90% of oil leaking out of that BP well disaster. I would say that is an amazing effort. Yet while he wages war against this oil spill why he is not allowing our allies to help in the effort?

By not waving what is known as the Jones Act, or its real name the Merchant Marine act of 1920, he is slowing down the efforts to capture oil from the spill. The Jones act requires that all ships that carry goods in US waters be carried in U.S. flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents. The problem is that this act would forbid the help of foreign ships that have the technology to.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.98 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.19
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 76.24

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.19
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.98

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's rally, the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.544 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 5.196
Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.429

Naturual gas pivot point for Wednesday is 5.136

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.868
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.544

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG


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New Video: The Talk Of The Day Is Crude Oil

Whether it is the spill in the Gulf, which continues unabated, or talk on Capitol Hill, the subject is crude oil. Today we received a signal by way of our weekly "Trade Triangle" to get long crude oil.

In this new brief video, we show you the exact levels to keep your eye on and also where a logical stop would go for this position. We have had a lot of questions on Fibonacci retracements lately and this video goes into detail about that phenomenon and how you can best use it.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We are always interested in your views so please leave us a comment and let us know what you think about the direction of crude oil.

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where oil and gold may be headed tomorrow.




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Crude Oil Advances Above $75 a Barrel Before Inventory Report

Crude oil rose to a one month high in New York as the euro gained against the dollar, bolstering the appeal of commodities, and on forecasts that a government report will show U.S. supplies fell for a third week. Oil climbed as much as 2.1 percent after the 16 nation currency strengthened, following increases in global stock markets. U.S. crude oil inventories probably declined 1 million barrels in the week ended June 11, according to the median of 13 analyst responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The euro is higher and oil is following,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “There’s been a very strong correlation between currencies and oil recently.” Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.51, or 2 percent, to $76.63 a barrel at 11:05 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil touched $76.70, the highest level since May 12. Futures are up 8.5 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for July settlement climbed $1, or 1.3 percent, to $76.20 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The July contract expires today. The more active August futures increased $1.15, or 1.5 percent, to $76.81 a barrel. The euro strengthened to $1.2316, up 0.8 percent from $1.2221 yesterday. The currency touched $1.1877 on June 7, the lowest level since March 2006, on concern that the debt crisis in Greece will spread to other countries in the region.

“The bulls are trying to move oil higher, and they’ve been getting intermittent support from the euro and dollar,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy adviser Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: A Quick Update on the S & P 500

The sharp rally we saw on Friday followed through on Monday, but appears to have run out of steam. In this new short video, we show you what you should be looking at in this market and how we think it should be played.

The video is short, less than two minutes, but you'll get a lot of good information that will help you trade these choppy, choppy markets.

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Crude Oil Stochastics-RSI are Becoming Overbought But Remain Bullish

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If July extends the rally off May's low, the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.73 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.42
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday morning is 75.05

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 73.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.73


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New Video: How to Tell When a Market is Oversold

Markets can get oversold, but when is a market really oversold?

In our latest video we show you a specific example of how markets can become oversold, stay that way, and why sometimes a relief rally doesn't change anything.

This is a short video and it's one we highly recommend watching as it will help you in the future to be aware of the oversold phenomenon.

We invite you to take a look at this new video and as always it can be viewed with no registration and at no charge.

We are also interested in your views or strategy dealing with an oversold market, so please feel free to leave us a comment.

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Crude Oil Rises Above $75 After European Industrial Output Gains

Crude oil rose above $75 a barrel on speculation economic growth will accelerate after European industrial production climbed more than forecast in April. Oil increased as much as 3 percent after the European Union’s statistics office reported that output in the 16 nations using the euro advanced 0.8 percent. Economists projected a gain of 0.5 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The dollar dropped to its lowest level against the common currency in more than a week, strengthening the appeal of commodities.

“The industrial numbers out of Europe were somewhat better than expected, which is bolstering confidence about the region’s economy,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The strength of the euro is a major factor pushing most commodities higher today.” Crude oil for July delivery rose $1.25, or 1.7 percent, to $75.03 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 4.2 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for July delivery increased 68 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $75.03 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Oil retreated from the day’s high after Moody’s Investors Service said it downgraded Greece’s government bond ratings by four levels to Ba1 from A3. Oil and the euro tumbled in May on concern that Greece’s debt crisis would spread to other nations using the common currency.

The dollar declined against the euro for the fourth time in five days. The single currency gained as much as 1.5 percent to $1.2299, the highest since June 3. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.2 percent to 1,093.89.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: Japanese Candlesticks and The Gold Market

We have just finished a short video on the spot gold market using Japanese candlestick charts. In this new video we show you some important elements that you would not necessarily see using traditional Western charts.

We invite you to take a look at this new video with no registration and no charge. And whether you agree, disagree, or just want to comment on this video, please feel free to do so.


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Crude Oil Poised to Extend Last Week's Rally

Crude oil was higher overnight and is poised to extend last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and renew the rally off May's low. If July renews the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 76.30
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 78.46

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 74.23

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 72.61
Second support is last Monday's low crossing at 69.51


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SP500, Oil and Gold Trading at Resistance Levels

Last week we saw the financial market including commodities move higher which was great to see. But the recent run up has brought both equities and commodities to their key resistance levels. With Gold, Oil and the SP500 trading near key resistance points we will most likely have some sharp movements this week so buckle up tight!

Gold – Daily Chart
Gold Future Prices continue to form the large cup and handle pattern and is trading near resistance. This week I figure we will see gold make a move up or break the dotted support trend line and drop towards the blue support level. I continue to wait for a low risk setup for gold.

Crude Oil – Daily Chart
Crude oil has been trending down for a couple months and recently rebounded to test its resistance level. It looks as though oil is forming a bear flag which generally means we should see lower prices in the near future. But another $1-2 move up could trigger a surge of buyers if this resistance level is broken which is why this week should be volatile… it’s a 50/50 chance for commodities to either rally or sell off.

SP500 – Daily Chart
The SP500 has posted some decent gains the past couple days but it’s still no in the clear just yet… Most technicians are looking for a move above 1100-1110 area with heavy volume before they start to commit serious money to the long side.

It looks and feels as though the market could drop or rally very sharply from here and if you are caught on the wrong side of the move then it’s going to really hurt the trading account. During times like this when the market is at a critical pivot point with increased volatility levels along with mixed market internals I tend to stay on the side lines until some dust settles.

Weekend Gold, Oil and SPX Trading Conclusion
In short, everything is trading near key pivot points giving mixed signals for prices to rally or drop. My analysis is pointing to a small move up Monday morning to break Fridays high followed by some selling late Monday or Tuesday. How much of a move down I don’t know for sure but there is potential for a 3-4% move. On the flip side if buyers step in pushing the price above 1100 then we could see a surge higher of 3-4%…

Very dicey times right now to be trying to pick a direction, which is why it’s best to wait for the risk level to diminish before getting involved or at least trade a small position with a protective stop if you feel confident in a direct.

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