Crude Oil Thursday Evening Trading

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Crude Oil Closes Slightly Higher

June crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off last week's low. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.62 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 46.72 would renew this month's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 45.08.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 51.94.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.21.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.08.

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The June S&P 500 index closed slightly lower on Thursday as profit taking tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 847.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 887.10.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 855.04.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 847.52.

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The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.80 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.54.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.80.

First support is today's low crossing at 84.03.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.



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Crude Oil Steady Amid Flu Threats, Exxon Reports Lowest Profits In 5 Years

"Crude Oil Is Steady as Swine Flu Threatens Demand, Stocks Rally"
Crude oil was little changed as the World Health Organization said a pandemic declaration may come soon and economic reports signal that the worst of the global recession is over.

Fuel demand may drop as swine flu has the potential of being the first widespread influenza outbreak in 41 years. Initial U.S. jobless claims decreased last week, industrial output in Japan rose for the first time in six months, while U.K. consumer confidence climbed to the highest level in a year.

“We are probably looking at a pandemic which will reduce global growth to some extent,” said Bill O’Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “There are increasing signs that the economy is starting to get better. In the end this.....Complete Story

"Shell CEO Says Job Cuts Imminent to Reduce Costs"
Royal Dutch Shell's Chief Executive Officer, Jeroen van der Veer, has confirmed that a reduction in the oil major's employment levels for 2009 is imminent in order to cut costs amid lower oil prices, according to Bloomberg, citing the Financial Times.

Specifically, van der Veer said that Shell must trim its costs to move forward with its intended investment plans while also keeping a close watch on its borrowing expenditures this year.

In March, Shell unveiled its plans to invest between $31-$32 billion in 2009 with dividends for the year expected to be some $10 billion, or a 5% increase of Q1 2009 dividend per share compared.....Complete Story

"Exxon Has Biggest Profit Drop in 5 Years as Oil Falls"
Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest company by market value, posted its lowest profit in more than five years after the global recession sapped energy demand, pulling down oil and gasoline prices.

First quarter net income dropped 58 percent to $4.55 billion, or 92 cents a share, from $10.9 billion, or $2.02, a year earlier, Irving, Texas-based Exxon Mobil said today in a statement. Per-share profit was 3 cents lower than the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The earnings decline was Exxon Mobil’s biggest since 2002.....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Bulls Have The Near Term Advantage

June crude oil was higher overnight and is trading above resistance marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.65.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.65 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 50.50

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 51.94.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.21.

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Wednesday's decline and spiked below support crossing at 84.10. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.77 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.52.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.77.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 84.03.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 848.03 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 868.50

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 887.10.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 856.07.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 848.03.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 14.40 points. at 883.30 as of 6:04 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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Crude Oil Closes Higher, Are Higher Prices Possible Near term?

June crude oil closed higher on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.57 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 46.72 would renew this month's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the reaction low crossing at 45.08.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 51.75.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.21.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.08.

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The June Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and extended the decline off this month's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline, the reaction low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.87 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.59.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.87.

First support is today's low crossing at 84.24.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.10.

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The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off March's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 844.32 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 879.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 844.32.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 823.10.


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Exxon Mobil Corporation Declares Second Quarter Dividend

The Board of Directors of Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) today declared a cash dividend of 42 cents per share on the Common Stock, payable on June 10, 2009 to shareholders of record of Common Stock at the close of business on May 13, 2009.

This second quarter dividend compares with $ .40 cents per share paid in the first quarter of 2009.

Through its dividends, the corporation has shared its success with its shareholders for more than 100 years and has increased its annual dividend payment to shareholders for 27 consecutive years.


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Shell Says Rebound Unlikely, Motor Fuel Supplies Decline

"Crude Oil, Gasoline Rise as Supplies of the Motor Fuel Decline"
Crude oil and gasoline rose after a government report showed an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories of the motor fuel as refiners reduced operating rates.

Gasoline supplies declined 4.7 million barrels to 212.6 million last week, the biggest reduction since September, the Energy Department said. Stockpiles were forecast to rise by 200,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Prices also increased after stocks rallied and the dollar dropped.

“Nobody was looking for a gasoline decline of that size,” said Sean Brodrick, natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “This shows that refineries are keeping processing rates too low because there’s obviously some demand out there for gasoline.....Complete Story

"Iraq Launches Tenders for 60 Wells in Southern Oil Fields"
Iraq Sunday issued two tenders for foreign companies to drill a total of 60 wells in the country's large oil fields in southern Missan governorate in a bid to increase crude oil output, according to tender document posted on the oil ministry Web site.

The first tender, issued through Missan Oil Co., or MOC, an affiliate of the oil ministry, calls for the drilling of 15 wells in the Halfaya and Amarah oil fields, and another 15 wells in the Abu Ghirab.....Complete Story

"Shell Says Oil Unlikely to Rebound as Profit Slumps"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s largest oil company, said crude prices are unlikely to rebound in the next 12 to 18 months as it reported a 62 percent slump in first-quarter profit.

Net income declined to $3.49 billion, or 57 cents a share, from $9.08 billion, or $1.46, a year earlier, The Hague based company said today in a statement. Excluding inventory changes and one time items, earnings beat analysts’ estimates.

Shell follows BP Plc, its smaller rival, in posting lower earnings after oil prices plunged about $100 from a record. Chief Executive Jeroen van der Veer has pledged to pay out about $10 billion in dividends this year, even as Shell funds the industry’s biggest spending program to revive production growth......Complete Story


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Crude Oil Trades Higher On Weaker Dollar, Fed Announcement Day

Crude is trading higher benefiting from a weakening dollar and the SP 500 showing strength typical of a Fed interest rate announcement day.

June crude oil was higher overnight hinting that the two day correction off last Friday's high might be ending. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.55 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June renews this month's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.32

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.55.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.21.

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight signaling that a two day short covering bounce off last Friday's low has likely ended. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends last Friday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.88 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.60.
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.88.

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 84.63.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 84.10.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 852.96. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral warning bulls that a short term top and possible trend change might be near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 843.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 851

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 843.86.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 823.10.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 8.20 points. at 860.00 as of 5:57 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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Key Market Events To Watch For Wednesday............

10:30 AM ET.

Apr 24 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 370.6M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.3M; previous +3.85M)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.3M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -300K; previous +802K)

Distillate Stocks (previous 142.3M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected +200K; previous +2.68M)

Refinery Usage (expected 83.4%; previous 83.4%)


Two-Day FOMC Meeting continues; interest rate decision expected around 2:15 p.m. EDT


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Oil Falls For Second Day, Valero Profits Up

"Oil Falls a Second Day on Concern Swine Flu Will Curb Fuel Use"
Crude oil fell for a second day on concern that fuel demand will drop as the swine-flu outbreak curtails travel and delays a recovery from the global recession.

Oil, gold and copper declined as the World Health Organization raised its global pandemic alert to the highest since the warning system was adopted in 2005, saying the disease is not containable. Crude rose in eight of the past 10 weeks as the stock market climbed on speculation that the economy and energy consumption would rebound later this year.

“There’s a potential that a swine-flu outbreak will crimp economic growth,” said Rick Mueller, a director of oil markets at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “There’s also recognition that the recent rally was overly optimistic. Demand isn’t recovering.....Complete Story

"OPEC Oil Price Eases Early In The Week"
The price for oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shed nearly $0.80 Monday, the group announced Tuesday.

After rising to just below the 50 dollar mark at the end of last week, one barrel (158 liters) of OPEC crude oil fell by $0.76 to settle at $49.21 on Monday.

The Vienna based organization calculates a basket price based on 12 brands produced by its members.....Complete Story

"Valero Energy Profit Rises on Higher Refining Margins"
Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. oil refiner, said first-quarter profit rose 18 percent on increased margins for processing crude into gasoline and other petroleum products.

Net income rose to $309 million, 59 cents a share, from $261 million, or 48 cents, a year earlier, San Antonio-based Valero said today in a statement. The per-share results beat by 9 cents the average of 18 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales fell 50 percent to $13.8 billion.

Valero benefited from lower costs and a rebound in gasoline prices as U.S. refiners cut processing rates faced with reduced fuel demand in an economy hobbled by recession. The company earned an average of $8.77 for each barrel of oil it processed in the first quarter.....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Looks To Move Lower On Stronger Dollar, Swine Flu Outbreak

Market news just seems to be building against crude this week. The Mexican Flu outbreak, the stronger dollar and the SP 500 trending lower all are weighing heavily on crude oil. We appear to be range bound in the 48-53 range for now and while the future seems bearish for oil traders they appear more than willing to pile in long when meeting support.

For Tuesday we need to touch 48 for me to start building a scalp/long day trade position. Under 47 we go 100% long. In this market I will be 100% out if we rally any where near 1st resistance at 51.69

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.85

1st resistance is 51.69
2nd resistance is 53.29

1st support is 48.25
2nd support is 46.41



Market news to watch for.................

4:30 PM ET. Apr 2...API Oil Industry Report

....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -1.01M)

....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +107K)

....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +458K)

....................Refinery Runs (previous 82.1%)


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