Monday, May 17, 2010

Crude Oil Snaps Five Days of Declines After Tumbling Below $70 a Barrel

Crude oil rose, snapping five days of declines, as some investors took the view a drop below $70 a barrel made the commodity attractive to buy. Oil pared yesterday’s 2.1 percent drop as the euro’s rebound from a four year low bolstered optimism the shared European currency will weather the region’s debt crisis. A U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow will probably show that refinery operating rates increased and gasoline inventories dropped, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

“We’ve come from having oil at $87 a barrel to around $70 per barrel,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Those who have already factored in a weak outlook for the euro zone, or don’t think that there’s the risk of another financial crisis happening, seem to think this is not such a bad time to buy.” Crude oil for June delivery gained as much as 64 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $70.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $70.38 at 9:02 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract fell $1.53 to $70.08 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Dec. 14. Prices had tumbled to $69.27 yesterday.

The dollar was at $1.2357 per euro from $1.2395 in New York. The euro weakened before a report forecast German investor confidence fell in May, after rising yesterday. Refineries probably operated at 88.6 percent of capacity last week, up 0.2 percentage point from the previous week, according to the median of analyst responses before the Energy Department report. “Refinery operations have been reasonably good,” National Australia Bank’s Westmore said.

Gasoline supplies declined 1 million barrels from 222.1 million the prior week, according to the Bloomberg survey. U.S. crude oil stockpiles probably increased by 625,000 barrels, the 15th time in 16 weeks as imports climbed. Brent crude oil for July delivery increased as much as 80 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $75.90 a barrel, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, and was at $75.71 at 8:31 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract slipped $2.83, or 3.6 percent, to $75.10.

Reporter Ben Sharples can be contacted at bsharples@bloomberg.net

New Video: Crude Oil Breaks $70 a Barrel, is it Time to be Short?

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New Video: Crude Oil Breaks $70 a Barrel, is it Time to be Short?

The crude oil market broke through an important support zone and appears to be very much on the defensive. In this new short video on crude oil, we point out some of the levels that we still think are important in this market and illustrate just how important it is to use both stops and our "Trade Triangle" technology.

As always there is no charge or registration requirement in order to view this new video, and we encourage you to leave a comment and let us know what you think about the video and the direction of this crude oil market.


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Where is Gold and Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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Crude Oil Signals Remain Oversold, Lower Prices Still Likely

Crude oil closed lower on Monday and spiked below last September's low crossing at 69.40. A short covering bounce tempered early losses and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends this month's decline, last July's low crossing at 65.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.01. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.19. First support is today's low crossing at 69.27. Second support is last July's low crossing at 65.66.

Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended last week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends today's rally, the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.157 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.414. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the October-April decline crossing at 4.438. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.158. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.157.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extends this year's rally. However, profit taking tempered much of today's gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 87.21. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.92. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.39.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1185.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are hard to project. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1209.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1185.10.

The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010

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Phil Flynn: Euro Melt

Asia plays catch up with last Fridays Euro Meltdown driving oil to a new 3 month low. Strength comes in numbers but at the same time, the numbers can bring you down as the small members of the EU are raising concerns that the Euro will be split. Those fears gained momentum when German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe is in a “very, very serious situation” .Those concerns started a global aversion to risk going into the weekend as we saw the Euro move to a four year low. Today we want to find out if the market gains a sense of confidence as the market hopes that we will see bargain hunters step in. Yet whether they do or they do not, the one thing we do know is that the Euro problems have not gone away.

For oil and the products the market is living and dying with the fallout from the crisis. Oil has been propped up on the backs of a weak dollar and then a strong dollar and without that going for it, the focus falls back on the supply side facts for crude oil. Last week the Energy Information Agency reported that supplies of oil is at a record high at Cushing, Oklahoma which is the Nymex delivery point. The refiners have a lot of incentive to make gasoline with the crack spread this wide. The EIA says that the high crack spread is due in part to the switch to summer time grades of gas. The EIA says that May 1 marks the date for most of the country when more costly summer-grade gasoline is required (April 1 in southern California). The maximum allowable vapor pressure, which is measured as Reid vapor pressure (Rvp), is the primary distinction between winter- and summer-grade gasolines.

When the weather turns warm, a high vapor pressure increases the evaporation of the gasoline into the atmosphere. The volatile organic compounds that are released from gasoline into the air not only contribute directly to health problems, but also indirectly through the formation of ground-level ozone and smog. Gasoline vapor pressure is also important for an automobile engine to operate efficiently. Vapor pressure must be high enough to allow an engine to start easily, but it must not be so high as to lead to vapor lock, which stalls the engine when gasoline in the engine’s fuel delivery system prematurely turns from liquid to vapor.

Reducing gasoline vapor pressure to lessen harmful emissions and maintain car drive ability during the summer adds to refiners’ operating costs in the second and third quarters. Because of these higher costs, the rise in the crack spread during the summer months overstates the actual increase in the profitability of gasoline sales.The low for the year in oil of 6950 is the first big, long term target for oil yet with the stock market rebounding, we may not make it on this run. We think that longer term oil is headed much lower yet we still think the best way to play it is by the range. Make sure you call for our entry and exit points on every major market.

Phil can be reached at at pflynn@pfgbest.com and don't forget to watch him everyday on the Fox Business Channel

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Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off April's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends the decline off April's high, weekly support crossing at 69.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.26 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.15. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.26. First support is the overnight low crossing at 69.82. Second support is weekly support crossing at 68.50.

Natural gas was higher overnight and is poised to extend last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that additional gains are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.421 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.153 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 4.414. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing 4.421. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.153. Second support is this month's low crossing at 3.855.

The U.S. Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 87.21. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of 2009's decline on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 87.79. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 84.95. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 83.41.

Gold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1185.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1249.70. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1210.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1185.30.

New Video: How to Take Money and Emotion Out of The Gold Market

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Sunday, May 16, 2010

Crude Oil Falls for a Fifth Day on Concern Europe Debt Woes to Slow Growth

Crude oil fell below $70 a barrel in New York for the first time in three months on concern Europe’s sovereign debt crisis may derail the global economic recovery and reduce fuel consumption. Oil dropped for a fifth day, the longest losing streak in five weeks, as the euro extended losses against the dollar, damping the investment appeal of commodities. Oil’s tumble this month is being driven by Europe’s debt crisis and is beyond the influence of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Qatar’s Energy Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah said May 15.

“There are concerns that the European debt crisis will have a negative impact on the global growth outlook and in turn, global fuel demand,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets Pty in Sydney. “We’re seeing an increase in risk aversion, which has in turn has put upward pressure on the U.S. dollar.” Crude oil for June delivery fell as much as $1.79, or 2.5 percent, to $69.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the lowest intraday price since Feb. 5. The contract was at $70.37 at 11:34 a.m. Singapore time. Futures have lost 12 percent so far this year.

The euro dropped to the lowest against the dollar in more than four years, amid speculation European measures to reduce fiscal deficits will undermine the region’s recovery. The 16 nation currency reached $1.2235, the weakest since April 2006, from $1.2358 on May 14 in New York.....Read the entire article.


New Video: How to Take Money and Emotion Out of The Gold Market


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Weekend Gold, Silver and SP500 Trading Charts

Last week was amazing for both gold and index traders as gold surged higher and the SP500 tested a key resistance then fell 4% in our favor. The past couple weeks with the mini market crash and Euro issues making the market extra volatile both gold and the broad market (SP500) index has been wild.
The added volatility makes trading more difficult because price patterns become less predictable and price movements are much larger increasing risk for traders.

Below are the charts & videos of what to look for in the coming days…

GLD – Gold ETF Trading
Gold continues to trend higher at an accelerated rate. Friday we saw gold pullback and test a key support level then bounced to close in the middle of the days trading range. As you can see the trend line support has become very steep and once the trend line support is broken I figure there will be a sharp drop to digest the recent rally.


SLV – Silver ETF Trading
Silver popped and tested a key resistance level from a previous high as expected. It also tested the top of its trend channel providing even more resistance. This week will be interesting as we wait to see if precious metals have a small pullback or continue to rally.


SPY – SP500 Index ETF Trading Chart
This chart clearly shows what I think is about to unfold by looking at the past market drop. Because of the mini market crash triggering everyone’s stops already I figure we have made the low and the dip we are seeing now will drift down a few more percentage points then bottom out.


ES M0 – SP500 Mini Futures Trading Setup – Pre-Drop
Below is a chart of the SP500 which we shorted or bought the SDS bear etf trading fund last week looking to profit from a falling stock market. As you can see from the chart we saw the es mini contract drift into a key pivot point on light volume. What this means is that a large group of sellers will be waiting at that price, and because volume is light we know there are not many buyers at this price level. Simple supply/demand comes into play with more sellers causing the price to stop rising and eventually force the price lower which is what we were anticipating.

The green arrows show key support levels on the 60 minute chart where 1/3 of a position should be taken of the table to lock in gains which also reduces overall risk on the trade. Once we cash in the first 1/3 of the position we move our protective stop the breakeven which is the entry point for the remaining portion of our position. This turns the trading into a winner no matter what happens allowing us to enjoy the ride…


ES M0 – SP500 Mini Futures Trading Setup – Current Price
Here is the same chart 24 hours later showing both of our profit targets triggered pocketing 2/3rds of our position for a very nice gain. Depending on the type of trading vehicle you traded there was potential to make up to 150% return in less than 24 hours.

We currently hold 1/3 of the position left with a loose stop allowing the trade to mature incase the down trend continues for several days or weeks. If not and the price rallies then our stop will get triggered for small profit on the balance of the position. Either way we win.


Stock Market ETF and Futures Trading Conclusion:
In short, the market is trading on increased volatility making it difficult to find low risk setups. At the moment we are long gold and short the SP500 with both position deep in the money. All we can do now is manage our positions to make sure we maximize our profits.

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He's Back.....Watch the Trailer for 'Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps'

Watch the Trailer for 'Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps' debuted at the Cannes Film Festival on Friday and the reviews are, well, somewhat sleepy......We'll be the judge of that!




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The Six Advantages of ETFs

ETFs, or Exchange Traded Funds, have increased in popularity over the last few years, and for a number of reasons. Today, Price Headley of BigTrends.com, is going to give us the low down on everything we need to know about this increasingly utilized financial product.
We hope you'll enjoy today's guest blog post and perhaps consider adding ETFs or ETF options to your portfolio in the near future. As always, we're interested in hearing what you have to say about this post or your experiences trading ETFS in our comments section. In recent years the popularity of ETF Options has exploded.

The issue with ETFs and ETF Options has always been liquidity, but things have changed in that regard. Due to the advantageous architecture of ETFs, more investors are hedging their portfolios with ETF options. To understand the reason these vehicles are changing the options environment, let's take a look at the underlying securities and their benefits.

1. ETFs Trade Like a Stock - Unlike mutual funds or hedge funds which can only be entered or exited at the market close each trading day, ETFs can be bought and sold intraday. They can even be day-traded just like stocks. This advantage allows investors to make speculative bets on the direction of an index while still having the ability to exit the trade at any time of the day. ETFs also allow short selling, as well as often being optionable.

2. Diversification - One of the main benefits of trading ETFs is diversification. ETFs were created to track an index, be that a stock index, commodity index, currency index, or almost any other type of security index. The advantage of trading an index is that you are shielded from the volatile up and down swings of a given individual security.

3. Liquidity - There are many funds that are highly liquid. The QQQQ fund (follows the Nasdaq-100 Index) has an average daily trade volume of over 164 million shares and over 75 other funds have an average daily volume of more than 1 million shares. (Liquidity is important to get in or out of a position quickly. There are a lot of other buyers and sellers to facilitate your trades as opposed to relying on market makers to do everything for you. If you are trading options on the funds, many of these also have highly liquid options.)

4. Low Bid/Ask - As a result of high liquidity, many ETFs have low bid/ask spreads. A high bid/ask spread can cut into your trading profits. Most of the highly liquid ETFs have a bid/ask spread of only a few cents during the trading day.

5. Variety - Whichever sector of the market interests you, you can probably find and ETF for it. There are major index funds such as the QQQQ and SPY as well as sector funds such as XLF (Financials), international funds such as EEM (Emerging Markets). In addition to sector specific, fund companies are continually introducing "Ultra" and "Inverse" ETFs. "Ultra" ETFs are leveraged funds in which the returns of the fund are double that of the index. For example, if an ETF is up 10% for a given year, then the Ultra ETF for that same index would be up around 20% in the same year. Keep in mind that this leverage can work for you, as well as against you. "Inverse" ETFs are funds which move in the opposite direction of the underlying index. So if the S&P 500 Index is down 8%, then the inverse ETF for the S&P would be up 8%. To further increase your investing options, some ultra ETFs are also inverse funds as well.

6. Low Expense Ratios (Fees) - ETFs have much lower expense ratios than mutual funds or hedge funds. This means that more of your money stays in the investment rather than going to the firm that is maintaining it.

Some believe Exchange Traded Funds will become the primary investment instrument for most investors largely leaving mutual funds behind. This growth is demonstrated by the increasing availability of ETF options.







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