Wednesday, June 9, 2010

OPEC: No Need to Increase Supply

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said Wednesday it wouldn't need to boost its supply after cutting demand forecasts for its crude and boosting supply estimates for rival producers, despite the impact of a U.S. oil spill. In its monthly report for June, the organization also warned of likely downgrades in global consumption estimates in the second half, and slightly cut its annual forecast amid a slowing recovery.

OPEC cut 2010 demand estimates for its crude by 70,000 barrels a day and now sees a year on year decline of 175,000 barrels a day. "This would leave no room for additional crude oil supplies in the market," it said. OPEC's next meeting is not due until October. The organization, which members currently produce over a third of the oil consumed worldwide, is loosing market share to non members, which include Russia and the U.S.

It boosted non OPEC oil supply estimates by 110,000 barrels a day for 2010, making it an increase of 640,000 barrels a day. The largest upgrade came from U.S. supply, despite OPEC warning production there could be affected by an extension of a Gulf of Mexico drilling moratorium and a hurricane season expected to be worse than usual. The moratorium, which follows an explosion and a huge spill at BP's Macondo well on Apr. 20, is affecting 35 wells "which will have a heavy influence on production in 2010 and 2011," OPEC said.

The group also warned "an expected moderation in the pace of the economic recovery is likely to impact demand growth forecasts for the second half." It cut its global oil demand forecast for the year by about 10,000 barrels a day to 85.37 million barrels a day, but kept consumption growth unchanged at about 950,000 barrels. Despite the challenges they face in finding buyers for every new barrel they produce, OPEC members have been steadily increasing their output in the past twelve months.

In May, quota bound members increased production by 19,600 barrels a day to 26.83 million barrels a day, despite agreeing to 4.2 million barrels a day in cuts late 2008. Iraq, the only OPEC not subject to quotas, experienced the largest rise in the month, with 121,300 barrels a day.....Read the entire article.

What do Super Traders have in common?

Share

The Fibonacci Tool Fully Explained


If you are not already using the Fibonacci tool in your trading maybe you have heard of it. It is one of the most effective and simple tools to use in becoming a successful trader. And it is fully explained here in this video, it’s a technical tool that can make you rich.

You may have heard about Fibonacci, the man who discovered a set of numbers who that have a major affect on the market. So who is this Fibonacci fellow, and why are his findings so important in the market place?

The mathematical findings by this thirteenth century Italian man has yielded a useful technical analysis tool which is used in technical analysis and by scientists in a large array of fields. Born Leonardo of Piza, he is better known in the trading community as Fibonacci. Fibonacci’s best known work is Liber Abaci which is generally credited as having introduced the Arabic number system which we use today.

Fibonacci introduced a number sequence in Liber Abaci which is said to be a reflection of human nature. The series is as follows: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 and on to infinity. The series is derived by adding each number to the previous. For example, 1+1=2 , 2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, and so on.

We use the Fibonacci series mainly for retracements (see today’s video) and to show us where support and resistance might come into the market. We also use this tool to enter or add onto a position.
In this video we show you these exact retracements and how they affected the market at that time.

Click Here To Watch Video

There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it FREE with our compliments today.



Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil outlook remains basically unchanged. Recovery from 64.24 should have finished at 75.72 already. Further fall should be seen to retest 64.24 low first. Break there will confirm that whole decline for 87.15 has resumed and should target next key level at 60, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

A Good Trading Education = a Good Trader = Good Profits....Watch INO TV

Share

Crude Oil Rises for Second Day After Industry Shows Drop in U.S. Oil Inventories

Crude oil advanced for a second day as an industry report showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories and confidence among U.S. small businesses rose, bolstering optimism that fuel demand will increase in the world’s largest user. Oil gained as much as 1 percent after the American Petroleum Institute said crude inventories dropped for a second week.

An Energy Information Administration report today will probably show stockpiles fell 900,000 barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 15 analysts. The National Federation of Independent Business’s optimism index increased last month to the highest level since September 2008.

“There is some optimism with the macro data, especially in the U.S.,” Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne, said by telephone. “The last few weeks there’s been decent draws in the oil inventories in the U.S., and so the EIA data will be important to see if that trend continues.”

Crude oil for July delivery gained as much as 71 cents to $72.70 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $72.52 at 2:11 p.m. Singapore time. The contract rose 55 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle yesterday at $71.99. Oil has declined 8.9 percent this year.

Risks to the global economic outlook have “risen significantly” and policy makers have limited room to provide support to growth, International Monetary Fund Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said in a speech in Singapore today.....Read the entire article.

Over 1,000 Hours of Trading Education

Share

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Tuesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 75.72 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 73.39. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 75.72. First support is Monday's low crossing at 69.51. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.389 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.995. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.479. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.389.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 88.80. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 87.28. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.70.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Tuesday hinting that a double top with May's high could have been posted today. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. Closes below last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1254.50. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1216.60. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1198.10.

Check out the new "Trend TV"

Share

Can we Expect a Natural Gas Clampdown?

Natural gas blasts in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Texas are being closely scrutinized as the energy market is already facing greater regulations on offshore drilling. CNBC's Sharon Epperson takes a closer look.




Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

Share

Phil Flynn: Speaking Loud and Clear

The futures market is speaking loud and clear about the impact of the Gulf oil spill on oil prices but is the Obama administration listening? As I have pointed out in a previous article, the futures market is saying that when it comes to the gulf oil spill we will not have to pay today but hang onto your wallet tomorrow. The futures market is screaming that in the in the longer dated futures contracts that if we restrict offshore drilling in the Gulf or overregulated the price of oil it will go through the roof. Theses sentiments were outlined by an article in Bloomberg News.

According to Bloomberg News, "The oil market is signaling that prices have nowhere to go but up as the biggest spill in U.S. history curbs drilling and makes it more expensive to develop new fields.” Bloomberg point out something we talked about last week and that the spill in Gulf is signaling higher prices in the long run. Bloomberg says that, “Crude’s premium for delivery in eight years rose 86 percent since the April 20 explosion at the BP Plc leased Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico, based on June 4 prices.

Oil for December 2018 was $22 a barrel more than for next month, compared with $11 before the disaster.” They go on to say, “More regulation may add $5 to the long term contracts, according to Deutsche Bank AG. President Barack Obama extended a ban on new deepwater permits and exploration by Royal Dutch Shell Plc in the Alaskan Arctic for six months, putting off limits as much as 23.2 billion barrels of potential resources, equal to 76 percent of all reserves proven in the U.S.”

The number of rigs drilling in the Gulf of Mexico plunged 50 percent last week to the lowest level in 16 years, Baker Hughes Inc. reported June 4. “The president said stop drilling, and now we are seeing the result. Yet is the president getting the message? The Wall Street Journal reports, “The Obama administration, facing rising anger on the Gulf Coast over the loss of jobs and income from a drilling moratorium, said Monday that it would move quickly to release new safety requirements that would allow the reopening of offshore oil and gas exploration in shallow waters.”

Phil can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com and don't forget to watch him daily on the Fox Business Network

Get Started Trading Crude Oil Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

No change in crude oil's outlook. As noted before, recovery from 64.24 should have finished at 75.72 already. Further fall should be seen to retest 64.24 low first. Break there will confirm that whole decline for 87.15 has resumed and should target next key level at 60, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles


Share

Monday, June 7, 2010

Kevin Kiefer: Job Growth is Key to Recovery and Market

Friday's job numbers were very disappointing with private sector hiring declining significantly. What people need to understand is that there are enormous deflationary pressures in this economy and job growth is the only way to overcome those headwinds. Without strong job growth, this recovery and this stock market are both toast. The consumer and the private sector are continuing to deleverage and pay down debt....which is very deflationary but is a needed process in a system that had too much leverage. Even with the public debt soaring, total US debt (includes private and public debt) is declining.

We think this process will need to go on for many years with higher saving rates than what we have seen the past decade. Given this, the economy and the market can still do well if we have job growth to replace the aggregate demand lost due to the increase in savings. Also, after a few years of credit card debt going down, more income will be used to spend instead of interest payments which is a boost to the economy. As we have mentioned before, companies have cut to the bone and we believe that productivity can't go much higher in the short run so any increase in demand will lead to higher job growth than what we saw in May. We must watch the ISM and durable goods data to determine if demand is still increasing and if so, we expect much better private sector hiring in the months of June and July.

We are also still watching the 200 and 50 day moving averages on the S&P 500. We are well below both of these key moving averages with the 200 day at 1006 and the 50 day at 1154. It is very possible that the market may get a relief rally soon and we'll need to get a close above the 200 day moving average in order for us to put on more positions. If the economic data still points to demand increasing, then we should see the market get back above the key 200 day moving average quickly. Having said all of this, I am not selling or buying right now... and so I have no stock picks tonight. We'll need to keep a close eye on the economic data this month and on the charts and we'll let you know when it is safe to buy again or if it is time to sell all of our remaining positions.

I'm still a believer in this recovery... but if the market keeps hanging around below the 200 day and we can't get a close above it on the next leg higher, then I'll have to rethink that. Also, if the economic data starts coming in weaker than expected, then I'll also have to rethink that. We need good data this month to get the one thing we need to keep this economy and market going, JOBS.

Analyst Kevin Keifer can be reached at Kevin@tickerhouse.com

Check out more great articles from Kevin and the staff at Ticker House .Com


Share

Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil & gold are likely headed tomorrow.




Get Your FREE Preview of INO TV

Share

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Monday Evening

Crude oil closed down $0.54 at $70.97 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bears have regained the near term technical advantage and have resumed a five week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $76.00 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 14.4 cents at $4.941 today. Prices closed near the session high today and closed at a fresh three month high close. Prices have seen a bullish upside "breakout" from a recent trading range at lower price levels. Recent price action suggests a major market low is in place in natural gas. Bulls have gained fresh upside near term technical momentum recently.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 23 points at 89.02 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 14 month high. European Union sovereign debt troubles will continue to support the dollar index. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.

Gold futures closed up $23.10 at $1,240.80 today. Prices closed near the session high today on short covering and fresh speculative buying. There was a rumor that one big hedge fund was a major buying of gold with the Euro currency today. More safe haven buying interest in gold was also seen today. The gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and regained upside momentum today. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand.


Daily MarketClub Alerts.....Just Click Here!


Share

What Are You Waiting For....Start Trading Crude Oil Today With 10 FREE Trading Lessons!

You have put off trading crude oil long enough. With ETF's like USO, DTO, UNG and more it's easy for any investor to take advantage of this market no matter which way it's headed. And here is the best way to get started. Our FREE trading lesson program is designed to give traders some insight, tools and practices to help them trade successfully.

In this free, informative email course, we will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace. A few of the subjects that we will cover are:

(1) The importance of psychology in price movement

(2) How to spot mega trends

(3) Understanding of technical price objectives

(4) How to picture price objectives

(5) How to trade with moving averages

(6) How to use point and figure trading techniques

(7) How to use the RSI indicator

(8) How to correctly use stochastics in your trading

(9) How to use the ADX indicator to capture trends

(10) How to capitalize on natural market cycles.

Plus, you will you will learn about Fibonacci retracements, MACD, Bollinger Bands and much more.

It will only take a minute and we'll get you started right away!

Here is the "Link to Your 10 FREE Trading Lessons".....Get started RIGHT NOW!



Share

Phil Flynn: The Great Misleader

The reason why last week's jobs report was so bad was because we were mislead and told it was supposed to be so good. The Obama administration told the markets a big whopper and the market made them pay. The global economy is looking for confidence and credibility so when the administration misled us the market now thinks they may be hiding something worse. Both Obama and Bided falsely raised the expectations of the market place by touting a super strong jobs report that was not there on Friday.

If you don’t have anything truthful to say about an upcoming report then say nothing at all. If you want to spin the report to your own political advantage, well that is fine with me but do it after the report is released and not before. So much for this so called great jobs report that showed that the private sector employment is struggling. The part of the report that they were trying to get people to focus on was the headline number that showed there were 431,000 jobs created in May nationwide. Sounds great but.....Read the entire article.

Breaking Market News....The Most Complete, Current Trading News!


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Monday Morning


As noted before, crude oil's recovery from 64.24 should have completed at 75.72 already. Further decline remains in favor to retest 64.24 low first. Break there will confirm that whole decline for 87.15 has resumed and should target next key level at 60, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Share

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Crude Oil Extends Drop After Report Shows Less U.S. Job Growth Than Was Forecast

Crude oil dropped for a second day on concern the government debt crisis in Europe will widen and after the U.S. added fewer jobs than forecast last month, slowing a recovery in fuel demand.
Prices posted their biggest two day decline in a month as the euro dropped against the dollar on speculation Europe’s sovereign debt crisis will spread into the financial system. Oil fell 4.2 percent on June 4 after the Labor Department said that payrolls rose by 431,000 in May. Economists projected a 536,000 gain, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

“The U.S. payroll data was on the weak side of expectations and put a question mark next to the rate of U.S. economic recovery,” David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney, said by telephone today. “Concerns about Europe haven’t gone away. There are stories starting to emerge about Hungary’s fiscal position and that is affecting market sentiment.”

Crude oil for July delivery fell as much as $2, or 2.8 percent, to $69.51 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $70.04 a barrel at 10:22 a.m. Singapore time. The contract has fallen 6.1 percent since closing at $74.61 a barrel on June 3, the biggest two day decline since May 6.

The U.S. government hired 411,000 temporary workers for the 2010 census, accounting for the bulk of the gain in employment. Private payrolls rose a less than forecast 41,000. The growth in jobs in the private sector followed an increase of 218,000 in April that was revised from 231,000.....Read the entire article.

Still Our Best Deal Yet.....Get 10 Trading Lessons FREE

Share

Safe Havens are Shining but are Equities about to Rocket Higher?

It was another extremely volatile week sharp rallies followed by sharp sell offs. Fear is in no doubt controlling the market. The bulls and bears continue to battle it out. The charts below cover some important trends and market internals I pay attention to on a daily basis.

US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
The past two months the dollar as been in rally mode. The last 14 days we have seen a large bullish pennant form and this pattern typically marks the half way point for the current tend. The measured move for the USD is pointing to 93 over the next few months.


Gold Futures Prices – Daily Chart
Gold as we all know is seen as the major safe haven and the price per ounce has been steadily climbing. Friday we saw the major indexes sell down very hard but both the dollar and gold posted some solid gains. Gold does looks as though it needs some time to digest the recent move higher and this could take a week or two before anything exciting happens but I am on the lookout for low risk setups.


VIX – Volatility Index – 60 Minute Chart
This index measures the fear in the market. When fear is high and everyone is selling their positions we see the VIX jump in price. Over the past month we can see a possible Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If this pattern unfolds like it should then we will see the price of equities bottom in the coming week with the VIX dropping below the blue neckline. The old saying is “When the VIX is High is time to Buy, when the VIX is low its time to Go”.


Put Call Ration – 60 Minute Chart
In short, when the put/call ration is over 1.00 then there are more traders/investors buying Put Options than Call Options. Put options are when people are buying leverage to take advantage of lower prices. My thought/opinion about this is when more people are trading with leverage anticipating lower prices, I figure they have sold all their long positions and are now using leverage to profit from lower prices. Well if the majority of individuals have sold everything then in reality there should not be much left to be sold… So I feel this correction which started in April is almost finished.


NYSE Advance/Decline Line – 60 Minute Chart
This is one of my favorite charts to look at. While there are several indicators, market internals and technical analysis needed to clearly determine if the market is currently overbought or oversold, this chart is one that can help give you a good idea if you should be looking to buy, short or just stay in cash for the time being.


SP500 Futures Prices - 2 Hour Chart
The SP500 has been up and down like a yo-yo with some very dramatic moves. Up 2+% day down 2+% the next… very sharp and powerful moves can be both every profitable or costly if not traded correctly. Last week we caught a nice 2% gain in less than 24 hours which was an exciting trade. It looked at though the market was about to breakout to the upside and possibly reach the 1150 level but early Friday morning there were rumors about some Euro bank having serious problems and that was just enough to cause a domino effect sending the market lower throughout the entire session closing on a very strong negative note for the day/week.

That being said the market internals are indicating that equities are oversold at these current prices and a bounce is due any time. With the panic selling on the NYSE Friday reaching 119 sell orders for every 1 buy order I think we will see some follow through next week with lower prices, then a rebound once investors finish selling everything they own at which point we will be looking to get involved again.


Weekly Trading Conclusion:
In short, money continues to flow into the safe havens (Gold & US Dollar). The major indices are showing extreme panic selling and look ready to in the next few days. There is a possibility that the market could break down and start another major leg lower which is a big concern to me. I will be glued to the market internals and support levels for the major commodities and equity sectors in hopes to catch the bottom or to avoid another melt down.

Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's "Daily Pre-Market Videos and Trading Alerts"


Share

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday June 6th

Crude oil's break of 71.23 minor support last week suggests that recovery from 64.24 is already completed at 75.72 already. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for a test on 64.24 low first. Break there will confirm that whole decline for 87.15 has resumed and should target next key level at 60, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. On the upside, above 75.72 will bring another rise, but after all, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 87.15 to 64.23 at 78.39 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, prior break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

The Most Complete, Current Trading News!

Share

Friday, June 4, 2010

Disappointing Employment Numbers Drag Crude Oil Down Near $72

Crude oil prices fell hard Friday after a key barometer of the economy showed that U.S. companies remain reluctant to hire, dampening prospects that a rebounding economy mean more oil and gasoline demand. The nation's payrolls added 431,000 jobs last month, almost all of them from temporary census jobs. The unemployment rate inched down to 9.7 percent. Private companies added just 41,000 jobs, compared with 218,000 in April, and well below analysts' forecasts.

Stock markets dropped with the weaker than expected private sector hiring picture, and that pulled down oil prices as well. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were all down about 2 percent in late morning trading. Meanwhile, retail gasoline prices rose Friday for the first time in nearly a month, though analysts think pump prices for June are likely to continue falling, albeit at a slower pace.

Benchmark crude for July delivery dropped $2.38 at $72.23 per barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the session, it climbed as high as $75.42. The contract rose $1.75 to settle at $74.61 on Thursday. "This jobs report makes it look like we're not going to see a summer boom," said Mike Lynch of Strategic Energy and Economic Research.....Read the entire article.

Ready to Look at Your Trading in a New Way?

Share

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold and Dollar Commentary For Friday Evening

Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off May's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, last July's low crossing at 66.11 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.16. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 75.72. First support is today's low crossing at 70.79. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 67.15.

Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends Thursday's breakout above the upper boundary of the April-May trading range crossing at 4.433. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If July extends this week's rally, the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.326 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.977. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the November-May decline crossing at 5.151. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.326. Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 4.217.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Friday breaking out to the topside of the consolidation pattern of the past two weeks. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices possible near term. If June extends this year's rally, the March 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 89.71 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.33 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 88.33. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 89.71. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.30. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 85.33.

Gold closed higher on Friday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's rally, May's high crossing at 1251.40 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 1198.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1230.60. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1251.40. First support is today's low crossing at 1198.10. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

MarketClub Alerts in Action and Explained

Share

Phil Flynn: All Right So You Are Mad At BP

All right so you are mad at BP so why not go out and try to cut into their profits buy not buying their gasoline. Well it sounds good, but the problem is that if you want to get back at BP that is not the way to do it. The truth is BP is not in the retail gas business and the other truth is all you will hurt by boycotting them is the people that have nothing to do with the spill. A BP boycott is an exercise in futility.People are angry and they want to lash out but a boycott won't hurt BP.

The owners of BP gas stations just bought the brand name and are in many cases hard working taxpaying citizens that are basically trying to make a living in a business where profit margins are already thin and rely heavily on the sale of cold drinks, coffee and hot dogs. They too are the victims of BP’s errors and are probably even angrier at BP than you are. Boycotting BP branded service stations to get back at and hurt BP will have about the same impact on BP as if you decided to boycott Dunkin Donuts or McDonalds or CNBC. On second thought, maybe boycotting CNBC might be a good way to express your anger.

You know keeping things like that bottled up like that might not be good for your health. And of course watching the Fox Business Network is a good way to feel better.Back in 2007 BP sold all of its U.S. convenience retail units of its company owned and company operated convenience stores. The majority of sites were sold to franchisees and some to dealers and large distributors (jobbers). While the franchises are required to market BP.....Read the entire article.

Free Trading Video: Day Trading Made Simple

Share
Stock & ETF Trading Signals