Crude Oil Falls on Concerns China, U.S. Growth Is Slowing

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York, the longest losing streak in seven weeks, amid concern the economic recovery in the U.S. and China will slow, curbing demand in the world’s two largest energy consumers. Oil dropped 0.4 percent yesterday, capping the first quarterly decline since 2008, after reports showed a slowdown in U.S. private payrolls last month and an unexpected increase in weekly gasoline supplies. China’s manufacturing expanded at a reduced pace for a second month in June, adding to signs the fastest growing major economy is cooling.

“Sentiment on the economy can be considered still negative, not so strong,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge Group in Tokyo. “The stock market is very weak and that’s helping crude oil to fall.” Oil for August delivery fell as much as $1, or 1.3 percent, to $74.63 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.95 at 1:13 p.m. in Singapore. Yesterday, the contract decreased 31 cents to $75.63. Futures, down about 6 percent this year, lost 9.7 percent in the second quarter. The market is in its longest pullback since a six day drop through May 18.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Bears Gain Momentum, Extend Tuesday's Decline

Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extends yesterday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.47. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.43. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. First support is today's low crossing at 74.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.871 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.841. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.871. First support is today's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.93 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.93. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1244.90. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Phil Flynn: Firecracker!

Did someone light the fuse so the global economy could blow up again? Bullish dreams for oil exploded in a spectacular array of global economic worries. Forget about Hurricane Alex for the moment because the oil complex sure has. It is time to start worrying about the Euro zone, China, the end of the quarter and whether or not you can get reservations at the beach for the 4th of July fireworks. All of these issues played into yesterday massive stock market selloff. Traders worried about protecting any profits they may have and a terrible drop in consumer confidence sent the market on huge downward spiral. This raised fears of rising oil demand destruction and left traders to wonder what could governments do to stop the move and all was bleak as traders sold just about everything and went home early.


Yet good news today out of Europe and the fact that yesterday's selling was more than likely overdone is bringing the market back. The euro is a major reason why oil prices go up or down and it was under pressure in recent days as the market feared a liquidity squeeze in Europe due to the thought that the European Central Bank was going to have to lend banks more money. But it appears the banks took less money than thought. The ECB loaned banks 131.9 billion Euros (($161.4 billion) at its 3 month lending auction which was less than expecting giving a boost to the Euro and a boost in the price of oil.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Rises, Snapping Two Days of Declines as Dollar Weakens

Crude oil headed for a monthly increase, before a report forecast to show crude inventories declined in the U.S., the world’s largest energy user. Hurricane Alex has halted about 25 percent of crude production in the Gulf of Mexico and 9 percent of natural-gas output, the U.S. government said. U.S. crude stockpiles probably dropped 1 million barrels in the week ended June 25 from 365.1 million the prior week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before today’s Energy Department report. Crude was still heading for its first quarterly decline since 2008.

“Today’s Energy Department data may help prices,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna. “While the supply picture does not support crude in the short term, demand is becoming a bit better. Much depends on risk aversion, so if equity markets recover, crude will go up.” Oil for August delivery traded for $75.96 a barrel, 2 cents higher on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of 1:35 p.m. London time. Brent crude for August delivery was up 2 cents at $75.46 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London.

Crude has lost 9.3 percent in New York since the end of March and 4.3 percent this year. The commodity pared earlier gains of as much as 1.2 percent after data from ADP Employer Services showed the U.S. added fewer jobs than economists estimated in June. The contract has advanced 2.8 percent in June. The Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against those of six major trading partners, fell for the first time in three days, losing 0.3 percent on concern economic growth may falter, stoking demand for commodities as an alternative investment.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Pivot, Resistance and Support Numbers For Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into early July. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 74.66

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 75.21
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.829
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.610

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.480
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Here is a FREE Trend Analysis For Crude Oil and ETF USO

Where is crude oil and the crude oil ETF, USO headed? Our Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing some near term rallying power. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer-term downtrend Downtrend with tight money management stops. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored -75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):




-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending June 26th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
-75.....Total Score

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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Below the Key 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.40. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last week's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of last month's decline crossing at 81.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94. First support is today's low crossing at 75.21. Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17.

Natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it extends this month's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. Today's close below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 confirms that a short term top has been posted. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.865. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.884. First support is today's low crossing at 4.525. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 85.71. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If September renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 86.71. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.97. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 85.36. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 1243.50. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets will now be hard to project. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1266.50. First support is today's low crossing at 1227.60. Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1225.20.

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Phil Flynn: Is BP Too Big To Fail?

Get ready for the latest BP stress test and a new BP thing to worry about. Reuter’s reports that the U.S. Federal Reserve's New York branch has been investigating the exposure of major financial firms to BP to make sure that if BP can't meet the costs of its spill in the Gulf of Mexico, it won't put Wall Street or the world's financial system at risk. Reuters says that the New York fed, after two weeks of reviewing documents and asking banks about their BP exposure, found no systemic risk, and it hasn't asked firms to alter their credit relationships with BP, the sources said. The New York fed and BP officials declined to comment. Banks that trade with BP wouldn't comment publicly. You are entering a new dimension.

The dimension not only of sight and sound but of the mind and imagination, you are entering land and borrowing and illusion of cutting deficits. Beware you have entered the Euro Zone. The oil market seemed to have one eye on the storm had another eye on the Euro. The Euro really saw some pressure during the session as uncertainty about EU member nations ability to pay back debt became an issue. Dow Jones said the euro fell broadly Monday as worries mounted about financial system strains ahead of the expiry of a large scale European Central Bank lending facility later investors fear a liquidity shortfall. The euro fell to a fresh all time low against the Swiss franc and its worst level since November2008 versus the U.K. pound. It's clear now that.....Read the entire article.


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New Video: Does This One Chart Line Spell Doom for the Markets?

Make no mistake about it, last week was a very important week for the stock market. Looking on the weekly equity charts, you will see one of the most powerful Japanese candlestick lines. This one line on the chart indicates that there could be some major problems ahead for the stock market.

In our new video we explain what this line is and how it can play out in the short and longer term time frames. As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. We would really like to get your feedback on this powerful formation and what you see for the markets ahead.

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Crude Oil Trend Turns in The Bears Favor...Here's Tuesday's Numbers

Crude oil was lower as it extends Monday's decline and is challenging key support marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into early July. If August renews the rally off May's low, the 62% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 82.67 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 79.38
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 79.94

Crude oil's pivot point for Tuesday is 78.45

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.44
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 75.17

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Natural gas was lower overnight and is breaking out to the downside of last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.727 would confirm that a short term top has been posted and would open the door for a larger degree decline near term. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.900 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.873
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.900

Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.781

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.700
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.687

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