Friday, July 9, 2010

Crude Oil Stochastics-RSI Turn bullish, Is a Bottom in for Oil?

Crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.24 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 76.00
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.24

Friday's pivot point for crude oil is 75.27

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.807 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.637
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.807

Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 4.458

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.355
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Thursday, July 8, 2010

New Video: What's Going on in Crude Oil?

We've had a number of requests to do a video on crude oil, so here it is. This market has been largely trapped in a broad trading range with support coming in around $70/barrel and resistance around $80-85/barrel.

In this new video, we show you some of the other factors that could tip this market one way or the other.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. We hope you enjoy the video and please feel free to leave a comment and let us know where you think crude oil is headed.


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Are Crude Oil Signals Turning Bullish? Here is Thursday's Numbers

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 75.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.25

Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 73.48

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.832 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.832
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.633

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Smart Scan Chart Analysis For Crude Oil ETF....USO

Our Smart Scan Chart Analysis for crude oil ETF....USO, continues negative longer term. Look for this market to remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, USO scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):



+10.....Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25.....New 3 Week Low, Week Ending July 10th
-30.....New 3 Month Low in May
-90.....Total Score

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.




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Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Commodities Commentary For Wednesday Evening

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.30 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.28. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.30. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93.

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.841 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.841. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249. First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off June's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.94 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 85.30. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.94. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 84.04. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 83.83.

Gold closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1231.60 would signal that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1227.60. Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1248.80. First support is today's low crossing at 1185.00. Second support is the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90.

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Phil Flynn: They Keep Me Hanging On

Set me free, why don't ya babe. Get out my life, why don't ya babe. Cause you don't really want to buy me, you just keep me hanging' on. You don't really need me but you keep me hanging' on. The oil bulls have got to be asking that question. Why oh why do you keep me hanging on by my finger tips?

Another failed rally after the stocks led oil up it was the oil that led the whole mess down. Now even the most bullish analysts are starting to turn bearish as their bullish fantasies are becoming a nightmare. Of course if they are turning bearish should I be turning bullish? At some point the data is coming home to roost.

A sluggish economic recovery underpinned by a weak employment picture does not bode well for the economic recovery. Oh sure oil got a bounce on the fact that the Institute for Supply Management, (ISM) said its index tracking service oriented was still expanding at 53.8 yet how could that carry the day when it was and below market expectations.

Oil bulls started to ask themselves why is this bullish and starting to dump contracts late in the afternoon. That kind of market action with a failed rally might be the precursor to a total market meltdown.....Read the entire article.


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The "Death Cross": What it is and How to Trade It

In today's short video, we look at two important aspects of the market, one is an intraday technique which I will show you how to use to determine where markets will turn, and the other is the infamous "death cross".

The death cross does not occur that often, in fact, in the last 2 1/2 years we've only seen this happen three times. The most recent occurred just last week and is something that every investor and trader should pay close attention to. I believe that this video will help you understand what the death cross is and how you can construct it and use it in your own trading. A lot of traders and investors watch this very closely so you should too.

As always our videos are free to watch and there's no need for registration. Please feel free to leave a comment and give us your thoughts on the direction of this market.

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Crude Oil Rises Overnight, Lower Prices Still Possible Near Term

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.06
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19

Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday is 72.31

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.846 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.846
Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.249

Wednesday's pivot point for natural gas is 4.741

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 4.477
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks at where oil and nat gas are likely headed tomorrow.




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