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The U.S. stock indexes closed weaker today on some profit taking pressure from recent gains. The indexes early on today hit fresh multi month highs. Bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum as the stock market continues to "climb a wall of worry." We are half way through the historically bearish period from September to October, and the stock indexes have so far performed very well. It is my bias that if this autumn were to see serious market turbulence, it would likely have occurred during September.
Crude oil closed down $0.21 at $76.28 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $78.86 a barrel.
Natural gas closed down 9.3 cents at $3.916 today. Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart, hit a fresh contract low and closed near mid range today. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more power today as prices saw a bearish downside "breakout" from the recent sideways trading range at lower price levels.
Gold futures closed up $0.10 at $1,298.20 today. Prices today closed near mid range in quieter trading as the market pauses and consolidates after setting a fresh all time record high of $1,301.60 an ounce on Friday. A stable U.S. dollar today limited buying interest in gold. However, some fresh economic and financial worries coming out of the European Union did limit selling interest in gold. Bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.
The U.S. dollar index closed down 10 points at 79.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh eight month low. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 82.00.
Crude oil futures were little changed as U.S. stocks rebounded from an early decline and the dollar fluctuated against the euro. Oil rose 72 cents in the last hour of trading to erase a loss as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded. The greenback was steady against the euro on renewed signs of debt problems at banks in the 16 nation region. “The equity market is back up unchanged, that brings crude unchanged,” said Richard Ilczyszyn, a market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago. “Crude oil is very susceptible to currencies and equities right now.”
Crude for November delivery rose 3 cents to settle at $76.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price ranged from $75.52 to $77.17, the highest level since Sept. 14. “After a brief period over the past few weeks where the oil market appeared to disconnect from equities, the linkage appears to be alive and well again,” analysts including Lawrence Eagles at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report today. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose 0.2 percent to 284.08 at 2:30 p.m. in New York. The dollar gained 0.1 percent against the euro to $1.3474. November crude rose 2.1 percent last week as the dollar weakened after the Federal Reserve said it may take more steps to ease monetary policy.
The Standard and Poor’s index rose 0.1 percent at 2:30 p.m. before falling 0.6 percent to 1,142.16 at 4:28 p.m. Brent crude oil for November delivery fell 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $78.57 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. ‘Hard to Get Bullish’ “The dollar and the stock market are the two drivers,” said.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil price changed little in Asian session after Friday's rally but the near term outlook remained firm as the dollar weakened. Current trading at 76.6, the benchmark WTI contract stayed in the middle of the 70-80 trading range. The chance of going higher and lower is balanced for today but it's unlikely for a break out of the range. Gold price moves narrowly around 1300. While the macroeconomic backdrop is favorable for further gains, a pullback on profit taking cannot be ruled out as the metal has advanced for 7 out of the past 8 weeks.
Dollar's weakness is a main theme sending commodities higher in recent weeks. The USD Index plunged below 80 for the first time since March last week and has dropped -10% from June's peak. USD should continue to be pressured as long as speculations on Fed's additional QE measures remain intact. Today in Asia, EURUSD soared to as high as 1.3494 before retreating. Investors trimmed investments on the euro as Ireland will disclose the final expenses of bailing out Anglo Irish Bank Corp. later this week. In fact, the euro fell against 15 out of 16 currencies as concerns about banking crisis in the Eurozone resurfaced. The euro's weakness against dollar is only mild in comparison with others. USDJPY changed little at 84 although the government may implement a stimulus plan of up to 4.6 trillion yen to boost recovery. Meanwhile the BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said the central bank is 'ready to implement appropriate action in a timely manner if judged necessary'. A deflationary Japanese economy and the government's currency intervention and stimulus policy are theoretically negative for Japanese yen. Yet, strength in the currency indicates that the effects of a unilateral intervention are limited.
We have a light calendar today. Japan's corporate service price contracted -1.1% in August, slightly better than expectations of -1.2% and unchanged from July, while trade surplus stayed unchanged at +0.59 trillion yen in August from a month ago. The money supply (M3) in the Euro zone probably grew +0.3% y/y in August, following a +0.2% increase in July.
Commitments of Traders:
Speculators showed mixed expectations on the energy complex as they were more bullish on fuels than crude oil. Net length for crude oil declined -4 437 to 43 900 contracts as the Enbridge pipeline 6A resumed operations earlier than market expectations. Net lengths for heating oil and gasoline increased, by 7 083 and 4 367, to 17 891 and 35 232 respectively. Net short for natural gas rose for a 7th week even though price has fluctuated around the $4 level. Traders lacked incentives to trade the futures as we saw both long and short positions declined during the week but the drop in the former was 6 times higher. The fundamental outlook was largely unchanged with gas supply remaining sufficient and hurricanes failing to disrupt production activities.
Performance was also discordant in the precious metal complex. Net length for gold slipped for the first in 7 weeks although price has set new record highs. Some traders entered short positions as they viewed the rally overstressed. While some market participants began to worry about a gold price bubble, gold has only set a record in USD terms but remained below June's levels in terms of many other currencies. Moreover, it's far from the peak when calculated in real terms. We believe gold's long term uptrend remains intact if the low rate environment persists. Net lengths for silver and platinum increased further while that for palladium dropped in concert with price decline.
The oil market finally decided to join the commodity rally after spending most of the week on the sideline. The power of the Fed cannot be ignored forever as the threat of stimulus is always lurking around the corner. With most other commodities putting in strong performances, oil and the products followed but only reluctantly. Some say the durable goods number was the catalyst or strong data from Germany yet more than anything was the rising tide of all commodities that floated the oil market boat. Natural gas is collapsing as the weight of oversupply begins to take its toll.
With Gulf storms seemingly not a threat to supply and the fact that a falling dollar really does not matter that much to this market, gas could start to fall even harder. The trade likes to play crude off of the gas market and that should lead to further downside pressure. Do you remember when OPEC seemed to matter? Dow Jones reports that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to change production quotas at its next meeting in Vienna, scheduled for Oct. 14, as current oil prices are "comfortable," Kuwait's Oil Minister said Monday. Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah added that he isn't concerned about global crude oil demand but is worried about.....Read the entire article.
Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 76.89
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86
Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 75.94
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08
After a fierce equities rally on Friday, which I figured would happen, just not that strong; I have to wonder if there is some event or major decision in the works we don’t know about?
Friday’s rally could be something simpler like window dressing by the funds. This is when the funds buy up all the top performing stocks for month end reporting. They do this so that their investors think they are on the ball and know what they are doing. Window dressing will end Monday and from there we could see some profit taking (selling) start. But for all we know Obama could be extending the tax cuts for everyone or cutting payroll taxes etc…
It would only take one of these events to trigger a sharp up move in the market and that could be what Friday’s move was anticipating. That being said volume has remained light and during low volume session the market has a tendency to move higher. Sell offs in the market require strong volume to pull the market down, so until volume picks up there could still be higher prices just around the corner.
Let’s take a look at some charts…
SPY – SP500 60 Minute Intraday Chart
Last week we saw the market reverse to the down side with a strong end of say sell off. That set the tone for some follow through selling and for any bounces to be sold into. That being said, the market always has a way of surprising traders and it did just that on Friday gapping above Thursday’s reversal high causing shorts to cover and the typical end of week light volume drift to help hold prices up.
NYSE Market Internals – 15 Minute Chart
I like to follow some market internals to help understand if investors are becoming fearful or greedy. It also helps me gauge if the market is over bought or oversold on any given day.
These three charts below show some interesting data. Top Chart – This indicator shows me if the majority of shares traded are bought or sold. When the red line spikes up and trades above 5 then I know the majority of traders are buying over covering their shorts. I call this panic buying because traders are buying in fear that the market will continue higher and they will miss the train. When everyone is buying you know a pullback is most likely to occur.
Middle Chart – This is the NYSE advance/decline line. When this indicator is below -1500 then the market is over sold and bottom pickers/value buyers will step in and nibble at stocks. But when this indicator is trading over 1500 then you know the market is overbought and there should be some profit taking starting any time soon.
Bottom Chart – This is the put/call ratio and this tells us how many people are buying calls vs put options. When this indicator is below 0.80 level more traders are bullish and buying leverage. My theory is if they are buying leverage for higher prices, then they have already bought all their stocks and now want to add some leverage for more profits. When I see the majority of traders bullish then I an sure to tighten my stops (if long) as top my be forming.
Putting the charts together – When each of these charts are trading in the red zone know I must be cautious for any long positions because the market just may be starting to top. Or a short term correction may occur.
UUP – US Dollar Daily Chart
The US dollar has been under some serious pressure with all the talk about quantitative easing (printing money). Obviously the more the Fed’s print the less value the dollar will have. The chart below shows a green gap window which I think once it is filled should put the dollar in a oversold condition for a short term swing trade bounce before heading back down. A bounce in the dollar will put pressure on equities, gold and oil.
GLD – Gold Daily Chart
Gold continues to grind its way up. This move is looking very long in the teeth and pullback will most likely be sharp.
Weekend Trading Conclusion:
In short, equities and gold continue to grind their way higher while the US dollar continues its grind lower. When I say the market is grinding I am implying the market is over extended and a reversal any day should occur.
Financial stocks like Goldman (GS) which typically leads the market has been strongly underperforming over the past week. Insiders were selling GS very strongly which is strange and makes me wonder what’s up there? With the financial stocks underperforming it sure looks like a market reversal is just around the corner.
If Friday’s rally was simply window dressing by the funds then it should end on Monday and with any luck we will see a sharp reversal to the down side early this week.
You can get my ETF and Commodity Trading Signals if you become a subscriber of my newsletter. These free reports will continue to come on a weekly basis; however, instead of covering 3-5 investments at a time, I’ll be covering only 1. Newsletter subscribers will be getting more analysis that’s actionable. I’ve also decided to add video analysis as it allows me toe get more into across to you quicker and is more educational, and I’ll be covering more of the market to include currencies, bonds and sectors. Before everyone’s emails were answered personally, but now my focus is on building a strong group of traders and they will receive direct personal responses regarding trade ideas and analysis going forward.
Lukoil, Russia’s largest oil producer not controlled by the state, together with a group of investors bought almost 5 percent of Lukoil’s shares from ConocoPhillips [COP] for $2.4 billion, the Moscow based company said.
Lukoil and the investor group bought 42.5 million shares in the form of American depositary receipts at a price of $56 each. The purchase, arranged by UniCredit Bank AG, was for less than half of an 11.6 percent holding that ConocoPhillips had made available under an option that expired yesterday, Lukoil said in an emailed statement.
The deal aims at enhancing the company’s attractiveness to investors. “It allows us to support our share prices, since the transaction is funded by the group’s internal resources, without increasing the company’s total debt,” Lukoil Vice President Leonid Fedun said in the statement today.....Read the entire article.
A positive change in a German business indicator helped to bolster the euro against the dollar Friday, which in turn gave crude oil a nice bump to end the week.
The price of a barrel of oil for November delivery settled at $76.49 a barrel, a $1.31 improvement from Thursday, after the Munich based IFO Institute for Economic Research announced a slight improvement in Germany's business climate for September. Using 100 as the seasonally adjusted benchmark, IFO reported a business climate index of 106.8 for September 2010. In comparison, the figures for the preceding month and September 2009 were 106.7 and 91.3, respectively. The IFO Business Survey revealed that manufacturing firms remain encouraged by export opportunities. However, they expect the pace of the export market to slow down six months out.
Oil also benefited from rallying equities markets. The Dow Jones was up 1.86% as of 4 p.m. Friday while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 2.12% and 2.33%, respectively. The intraday range for crude was $74.66 to $76.64, and oil ended the week up 2.2%.
The diminishing likelihood that Tropical Storm Matthew will affect oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico placed downward pressure on natural gas prices, which lost 14 cents Friday to settle at $3.88 per thousand cubic feet. Nevertheless, October natural gas ended the week 1.5% higher compared to the settlement price last Monday. Natural gas traded from $3.87 to $4.04 on Friday.
Gasoline for October delivery settled three cents higher at $1.95 a gallon. The front month contract price fluctuated between $1.91 and $1.96. For the week, gasoline remained flat.
The dovish September FOMC statement heightened speculations that the Fed will announce additional monetary easing measures later this year. Provision of extra liquidity to the market is negative for USD. The dollar index dropped below 80 for the first time since March 2010. Weakness in USD drove commodities higher. WTI crude oil rallied, after a week of selloff in the prior week due to earlier than expected resumption of operation in the 6A pipeline, as a lower dollar increased it appeal despite unexpected rise in crude inventory. Precious metals strengthened with gold reaching rising above 1300 for the first time on record while silver outperforming its counterparts. Base metals were generally higher as robust demand from China boosted confidence in the complex's outlook.
Crude oil rallied on Friday as driven by strength in Wall Street. WTI crude oil for November delivery jumped to 76.68, the highest level in more than a week, before settling at 76.49, up +3.84% during the week. Meanwhile, corresponding contract for Brent crude gained +0.84% during the week. WTI-Brent spread widened to 4.9, a level not seen since mid-May, on Wednesday, as crude inventory surprisingly increased despite shutdown of the Enbridge pipeline, before narrowing to 2.4 on Friday.
When sovereign crisis in the Eurozone reached its peak in May/June, rally in the dollar and selloff in growth assets had sent crude oil price to as low as 64.24. As the concerns gradually abated and risk appetite increased slowly, oil buyers became active again and sent prices above 80 in August. Nevertheless, crude oil price has remained within a range of 70 and 80 for most of the time. In fact, we expect the 'range-bound' situation will continue for the rest of the year as we see price below 70 would attract buying, e.g. from the Chinese government as strategic reserves, and trigger 'intervention' by the OPEC while price above 80 is unsustainable giving growing non-OPEC production and ample OPEC spare capacity.
China's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) plan aims at completing the 3 phases of oil reserve base construction in 15 year (around 2020). While the sky-high oil price in 2008 had discouraged stockpiling, China's oil imports rebounded sharply in March 2009 when oil price stabilized after a sharp selloff. In 2010, China has been importing a large amount of oil and a record high being set in June 2010 (at 22.27M metric tons). We believe part of the oil imports went to the country's national oil reserves and the commercial oil reserves of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the Sinopec Group. Now that the country's is in the middle of the 15-year plan and, given the opportunistic nature of the SPR buying, it's likely for the country to accelerate the pace of stockpiling when global oil price fall below 70, the lower boundary of the trading range.
OPEC is in control of the world's 40% oil supply and has proven capability of 'adjusting' oil prices using its output. The cartel appears satisfied with recent price levels and some oil ministers expressed they preferred oil to trade at around 70-80. Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said that 75 is a level he wants. Therefore, it's reasonable to believe the cartel will do something, i.e. cut production, to defend the floor.
Yet OPEC's supply is a 2-edged sword. While it may cut production so that oil price will not fall to a level that hurts oil investment and national revenues, its abundant spare capacity is limiting the upside of oil price.
According to the September Short-Term Energy Report by the US Energy Department, OPEC's crude oil production will increase +0.3M bpd and 0.5M bpd 2010 and 2011, respectively, with non-crude petroleum liquids expected to increase by 0.6M bpd 2010 and 0.7M bpd in 2011. Spare capacity in the cartel should remain near 5M bpd compared with 4.3M bpd in 2009 and 1.5M bpd in 2008.
The Federal Reserve promise to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings to provide additional accommodation or a second round of quantitative easing if necessary, helped the oil market ignore some of the most bearish fundamentals in decades. Just this week the Energy Information Agency reported that total U.S domestic oil product inventories hit 768.1 million barrels which is the highest level since 1990 since the Energy Department began reporting weekly data.
The figure doesn’t even include ethanol stockpiles which add to the bearishness and the fact that demands in this shoulder season is even weaker than normal. With an economic outlook that is deteriorating and a glut of supply, oil prices should be getting annihilated yet despite this historically bearish outlook, oil losses in the weakest demand period of the year are only modest. The Feds impact on the price of oil is an undeniable fact and there are many reasons for that. First and foremost is the impact of that policy on the.....Read the entire article.
Here is a market that we like a lot more than the US market. We really like the way its acting and it looks set to take out the highs that were seen in December of 2009. If that is the case, then we could see this market make all time highs pretty quickly. You definitely want to have
this one on your radar screen.
In this new short video, I show you what I'm looking at and how we showcased this market last week when we did our last webinar. This webinar is set to be rebroadcast on Friday, September 24th at 5pm EST/9pm GMT.
This market is still looking good and looking strong. Pay very close to it this Friday because if it closes well, it should bode well for the following week.
As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration.
Crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If November extends this decline, the reaction low crossing at 73.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.99 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.92
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.99
Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 74.79
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the state controlled oil company, raised 120.4 billion reais ($70 billion) from the Brazilian government and other investors in the world’s largest share sale as it seeks cash to develop offshore fields.
Petrobras, based in Rio de Janeiro, sold 2.4 billion common shares for 29.65 reais each and priced 1.87 billion preferred stock at 26.30 reais apiece, according to a regulatory filing from the company today. That represents a discount of about 2 percent below today’s closing price.
The company is selling stock to fund development of offshore oil fields such as Tupi, the largest discovery in the Americas in three decades, and to preserve its investment grade credit rating. As part of the share sale, Petrobras issued about $42.5 billion of stock to Brazil’s government in exchange for the rights to develop 5 billion barrels of oil reserves.
“It’s positive that they managed to get such strong demand and the price was above market expectations,” said Mirela Rappaport, who helps manage about $100 million at Investport in Sao Paulo, including Petrobras shares. “In the long run, what will be important for Petrobras is if oil prices go up and for how long and at what cost it will take to develop oil reserves”.....Read the entire article.
The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidated some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1097.04 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1143.70. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1152.70. First support is today's low crossing at 1117.90. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1097.04.
Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If November extends the decline off last week's high, August's low crossing at 71.49 is the next downside target. Closes above last week's high crossing at 78.86 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.19. Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 78.86. First support today's low crossing at 73.58. Second support is August's low crossing at 71.49.
Natural gas closed higher on Thursday however, profit taking tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends last week's rally, the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 3.806 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.060. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 4.321. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.806. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.697.
Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. Upside targets will now be hard to project as it extends this year's rally. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1260.06 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1298.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1272.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1260.06.
The U.S. Dollar posted an inside day with a higher close on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 78.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.20 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.39. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.20. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 79.77. Second support is the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 78.66.
Gold sizzles, oil fizzles in the aftermath of the Fed promise to reinflate the economy. Oil and the leafs are beginning to fall as demand for oil and the economic outlook continue to weigh heavily. The disparity between gold and oil recently seem to reflect the despair that we are feeling from the FOMC committee or perhaps the Obama economic team. Now this morning the market fears that demand for oil may fall in Europe as well after a euro zone purchasing managers' survey fell to 53.8 in September from 56.2 in August the slowest pace in 7 months.
While their manufacturing sector is still expanding the market was looking for a number closer to 55.7%. This slower pace comes a day after a very bearish Energy Information Agency report that showed a surprise increase in crude supply and a depressing feeling on demand. If you were worried about the impact that the Enbridge pipeline shutdown and inclement weather might have had on supply I guess you shouldn’t have because supplies increased anyway. Crude defied expectations rising by.....Read the entire article.
Since Wednesday, September 15, natural gas spot prices fell at most markets across the lower 48 States, with declines of less than 10 cents per million Btu (MMBtu). However, selected markets in the Rocky Mountains and at the Florida citygate posted considerably larger declines, falling by as much as $0.51 per MMBtu. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price fell $0.04 per MMBtu since last Wednesday, averaging $4.02 per MMBtu in trading yesterday, September 22.
At the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the futures contract for October delivery at the Henry Hub settled yesterday at $3.966 per MMBtu, falling by $0.029, or about 1 percent, since the previous Wednesday.
Natural gas in storage totaled 3,340 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of September 17, about 6.2 percent above the 5 year (2005-2009) average. The implied net injection for the week was 73 Bcf.
The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil decreased by $2.92 per barrel since Wednesday, September 15, ending the report week at $72.98 per barrel, or $12.58 per MMBtu.
Dataflow continued to weigh on the dollar, pushing other major currencies higher, yesterday. With the exception of the US energy sector, commodities were buoyed by a weaker dollar. Comex gold for December delivery soared to as high as 1298 before settling at 1292.1, up +1.40%. Silver rallied with the benchmark contract closing above 21 for the first time since mid-March 2008. In the base metal complex, copper surged to a 5-month high while tin jumped after Indonesia reported decline in exports in August. US oil prices erased gains made earlier in the day as oil inventories unexpectedly increased despite shutdown of the Enbridge pipeline during the week. WTI crude oil for November delivery ended the day at 74.71, down -0.35%. Prices for oil products also dropped with heating oil and gasoline losing -0.61% and -0.96% respectively.
The US house price index surprisingly contracted -0.5% m/m in July, following a downwardly revised -1.2% decline in the prior month. The market had anticipated a milder drop of -0.1%. Moreover, the MBA's new purchase mortgage applications index plunged3.3% last week, with the 4-week average down -37% y/y. The readings reminded investors the vulnerability of the housing market and would be taken as a factor pushing the Fed closer to further easing. The dollar tumbled, weakening against major currencies except for Canadian dollar. EURUSD added more than +1% despite disappointments from Eurozone's industrial orders and consumer confidence index. GBPUSD climbed +0.3% even though the BOE minutes hinted the central bank might move towards further easing.
Shrugging off the threat of further intervention, Japanese yen rose for a 3rd day against the US dollar. Concerning commodity currencies, AUDUSD hit a 2-year high and is approaching parity as RBA signaled further rate hike might be earlier than market forecasts. NZDUSD also edged higher yesterday but gains were erased in Asian session today as 2Q10 GDP growth missed expectations. Canadian dollar was the only major currency that fell against the US dollar yesterday. Canada's retail sales contracted -0.1% n/n in July after gaining +0.1% in the prior month. The market had anticipated a growth of +0.6%. Excluding auto, the decline extended to -0.5% from -0.3% in June.
Currently hovering around 74/75, crude oil price has dropped almost -6% year to date and around -15% from this year high of 87.15. However, OPEC appears satisfied with the price. The group will be meeting on October 14 but OPEC President Wilson Pastor said there are ‘no plans to change OPEC policies regarding production or prices… The world economy is growing, it's exiting the recession and as the economy grows, that will go hand in hand with robust growth in oil prices'. The comment was made although the group downwardly revised the 2011 demand forecast for its oil output earlier this month. Notwithstanding expansion in non OPEC production and abundant inventories in advanced economies, many OPEC members have been producing exceeding their quotas. In August, the 11 members bearing quotas produced 26.80M bpd, compared with the limit of 24.85M bpd. Compliance level climbed slightly to 53.5% from 52.6% in July but remained significantly lower than78.6% in March 2009.
Nigeria's Petroleum Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke said the country will ask OPEC to increase its quota from 1.673M bpd. The country produced 2.01M bpd in August. In our opinion, lack of commitment from OPEC members to control production in an environment of high oil inventory and flaggy demand in advanced economies would damp the outlook of crude oil price.
It’s been a wild ride the past few days OptionsX, Obama and FOMC comments. Seems like everyone is waiting to see what the market is going to do going forward at this pivotal point…
Since the market topped in April and has since been trading sideways in this rather large range, everyone has small positions at work but waiting for a decisive move before fully committing to one side. There could be a few opportunities in the coming days using bonds, the dollar and the SP500 if all goes well which I explain below.
Lets take a look at the charts.....
SP500 – SPY ETF, Daily Chart
There has been a lot of talk about a sharp rally if the SP500 could break the 1130 level or the neckline everyone is talking about. Well this week Obama was on TV and the market rallied into that, then again after. I don’t really thing investors or traders were buying things up as he said the same boring stuff he always says without anything new. I feel there could have been another force at work, which we can discus another time .
Anyways, the market pierced those resistance levels and I’m sure a ton of traders have switch their view on the market from bearish to bullish. While I prefer to trade with the trend I can’t help but feel this market is still range bound, which is why I am still bearish at these shakeout levels. The SP500 did break resistance BUT the following candle did not close above the breakout candles high to confirm the move.
That said, the market is now trading back down at support and the next couple of days I’m sure will shed some like on the direction.
20 Year Bonds – TLT Fund, Daily Chart
We have seen the bond price pullback in a bull flag formation. It touched support before bouncing to break short term resistance as it looks to have started another rally. The chart below overlays both the candlesticks of the bond price and the SP500 which is the white line. You will notice they have an inverse relationship. If bond prices continue to rally then lower SP500 could start to rollover.
US Dollar – UUP Fund, Daily Chart
The dollar has fallen sharply the past 10 trading session and it looks to be oversold for a couple reasons. The past couple days the price has dropped straight down and gapped lower. This recent drop has reached a gap window which will act as support and could provide a tradable bounce in the coming days depending how things unfold.
In short, the SP500 is flirting with resistance and has yet to confirm the breakout. Bond prices look to be headed higher which will makes me think equities could start to sell off any day now… It’s also important to note that the big banks GS and JPM shares have been under pressure and they tend to lead the broad market. Another point to add is the fact the oil has not rallied even though the dollar dropped like a rock? What happens if the dollar bounces? Could oil finally start its next leg down?
Gold and silver continue their steady grind up. The price action reminds me of the 2009 Nov –Dec move. Once that train de-rails its going to have a sharp correction…
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Let the volatility and volume return!
Chris Vermeulen....The Gold And Oil Guy.Com
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Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last week's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If November extends this decline, the reaction low crossing at 73.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.10 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.82
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.10
Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 74.85
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 73.84
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08
