Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Sept. 28th

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today despite a weak consumer confidence index reading that sunk the U.S. dollar. The indexes this week have hit fresh multi month highs. Bulls still have upside near term technical momentum as the stock market continues to "climb a wall of worry." We are half way through the historically bearish period from September to October, and the stock indexes have so far performed very well. It is my bias that if this autumn were to see serious market turbulence, it would likely have occurred during September.

Crude oil closed down $0.41 at $76.11 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $78.86 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 4.5 cents at $3.961 today. Prices closed near mid range again today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at lower price levels.

Gold futures closed up $9.80 at $1,308.40 today. Prices today closed near the session high, scored another fresh record high and scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, whereby the high is higher and low is lower than the previous day's trading range, with a higher close. A weaker U.S. dollar and safe haven buying interest following some dour U.S. economic data today boosted gold. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more power today.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 33 points at 79.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh eight month low. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.


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A Breakthrough Invention in the Oil and Gas Market?

From Keith Schaefer at "Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin"....

An oil and gas entrepreneur in the US has devised an inexpensive way to capture oil and natural gas vapors around a well site, and sell them to make money. These vapors are often flared (burned), or vented into the atmosphere, and trust me, if people really knew how much oil and gas was flared around the world every day, even in first world countries, the media outcry would make the "water fracking" issue look like a kindergarten party. In fact satellite images show intense flaring occurring, principally in third world countries. Shell has just committed $2 billion to reduce flaring from its operations in Nigeria.


“Air pollution requirements related to oil and gas production from the states are becoming increasingly restrictive,” says co-inventor Dr. Paul Trost. And Trost's solution can be profitable. He adds that a study near Denver in the hydrocarbon rich Denver Basin containing almost 8000 oil and gas wells showed the “fugitive” hydrocarbons, gases emanating from production tanks can be captured and sold at a profit rather than burned in a flare. Just like water evaporates in a dish, oil and gas evaporates from the production tank at a well site, and escapes into the atmosphere or alternately is burned (flared).

The problem becomes bigger when a combination of gas and oil are produced with the gas being injected into a pipeline having pressure. The oil then is also pressurized and the pressurized gases (like gas in a pop can) then “flash” or boil off like a shaken beer can. In certain areas these gases are captured and directed to a flare for burning rather than being allowed to vent to the atmosphere.

Trost’s invention, called the V3RU (Variable Volume Vapor Recovery Unit), is different than other vapor recovery systems in that it uses a flexible accumulator (bag) to capture the vapors. “It swells up like it is taking a deep breath,” says Trost. “The bag thus captures both the flash gas and also any contained liquids. We exhale it slowly into compressor for injection and sale to a pipeline. It’s a variable volume bag and it’s safety rated. The alternative energy industry already uses it around breweries located in or adjacent to cities.” Without a bag, Trost says oxygen can get at the vapour and then it won’t meet pipeline specifications. The gas is then useless and must be flared. Using a bag allows some back pressure to be used, so it won’t let air in, and the gas retains its purity and suitability for pipeline sale.

Trost says the payout for the V3RU increases as the oil content of the natural gas increases, and also as the oil gets lighter (has a higher API rating) and contains more condensate. Typically the V3RU will range in cost from $8,000-$30,000. He gives a real life example of a gas/condensate well in Colorado that was producing about 30 BOPD and 400 mcfd, but high pipeline pressures were causing a large amount of “flash” gas, containing both recoverable oil and gas, was being lost. Application of the V3RU will allow the operator was able to capture an additional 8-10 boe/d, resulting in roughly a 2 year payout.

The product has been used almost exclusively in the Denver Basin, Trost says, but it is now starting to be used in other areas. Trost is a board member of Nextraction Energy (NEX-TSXv), which will be using the V3RU vapor recovery system to meet air quality regulations at Nextraction’s newly discovered gas-condensate well located at the Pinedale Anticline play in Wyoming.

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Georgian President: No Problem Getting Oil Financing

Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili says the country is having no difficulties getting financing for energy projects.




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Phil Flynn: Take No Quarter, Give No Quarter

Or at the very least beware of the end of the US fourth quarter. The quarter was a dream especially the month of September for stock market and precious metal bulls. Yet it seems as the quarter is coming to an end the markets with the most strength are running out of steam as funds and traders look to book profits as the markets failed to take out key resistance. For gold and all the talk about $1300.00 per once, the market never officially made it there and at the end of the quarter it seems that close is good enough. So unless we get some bearish news on the dollar it seems that 1300 an ounce won’t be hit at least until the next quarter. The stock market is rounding out a profit taking top as traders look to book profits from the best September since 1939.

Yes this is a September to remember but also remember that this is a profit taking business and it appears that unless the data gets us real excited the correction should start. The market in gold and stocks has been helped by the Fed. Ben Bernanke and his band of money printing merry men have engineered this latest gold and stock market rally. Now if only they can get it to trickle down to the oil market. Oil prices, while higher, are a bit less inclined to get excited about the recent stock market strength. With supply near record high and high stock prices not necessarily being reflected in real oil demand oil traders are less.....Read the entire article.

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FREE GOLD ALERT!

Short term traders should now be on the sidelines in gold as a daily Trade Triangle flashed an exit signal at $1,291.70. Long and intermediate term traders should continue to hold long positions in gold.

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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 28th

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.


First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.17
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 76.40

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

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Monday, September 27, 2010

Oil Tumbles as Moody's Downgrade Irish Bank Rating Intensified Worries About Economies in the Eurozone.

Volatility in oil trading increased as the US market opened. WTI crude oil for November delivery initially soared to as high as 77.17 after Trichet's comments on the Eurozone's outlook. Yet, gains were pared and price tumbled to 75.52 as Moody's downgrade of Anglo Irish Bank Corp's debt rating intensified worries about out peripheral economies in the Eurozone.

Crude oil ended the day flat at 76.52. Gold moved narrowly around 1300 as heightened sovereign concerns drove capitals to safe haven assets. Price settled at 1298.6, unchanged from last Friday's close. Profit taking was seen Asian session today.

ECB president Trichet acknowledged recent economic data has been 'better than expected' and said that the central bank expects 'the recovery to proceed at a moderate pace, with a positive underlying momentum but also with uncertainty surrounding the outlook'. The economy is 'out of the recession' but he and other members in the governing Council will remain cautious and prudent for this year and next.

Moreover, 'the rate of inflation could increase slightly in the short term but should remain moderate over the policy-relevant horizon. The comments were more upbeat than what the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a Princeton University conference last week. Bernanke said, despite stimulus measures, the US economy is only recovering at a slower pace than the central bank had expected. The Fed signaled.....Read the entire article.

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Kuwait Worried About OPEC Members' Output Quota Compliance

Kuwait's oil minister Monday said the country is worried about compliance with production quotas by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and will discuss the matter at the group's forthcoming meeting. Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah also said the 12 member OPEC group is unlikely to change production quotas at the next meeting in Vienna, scheduled for Oct. 14, as current oil prices are "comfortable".

Al-Sabah told reporters he isn't concerned about global crude oil demand, but is worried about OPEC members conforming to production quotas, saying there have been "slippages here and there". "Compliance with their (OPEC) quotas is very important," said the Kuwaiti minister, who is scheduled to meet his Indian counterpart during his three day visit to India.

Al-Sabah's comments come as some member states produce far more than the amount allotted to them under OPEC's production quota system. Higher production by any member could lead to oversupply in the market and hurt global prices. Last week, the oil minister of Angola, an OPEC member, said the country is still producing 1.9 million barrels a day of oil, according to the Angola Press news agency. The southern African nation says its quota is 1.656 million barrels a day, but data from OPEC's general secretariat show Angola's allocation is 1.517 million barrels a day.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Declines as Dollar Rises, Forecasts of U.S. Stockpile Increase

Crude oil fell in New York, snapping four days of gains, as the dollar strengthened against the euro and analysts forecast an increase in U.S. gasoline supplies, signaling demand recovery in the largest crude user may falter. Futures slipped as U.S. equities dropped and the euro weakened from a five month high against the dollar after renewed signs of debt problems at European banks and countries such as Ireland and Portugal. An U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow may show gasoline stockpiles climbed to the highest level in six months.

“We really haven’t made any headway into stockpiles,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Activity hasn’t improved. The crude market followed equity markets overnight.” The November contract lost as much as 40 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $76.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $76.26 at 10:54 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday it added 3 cents to settle at $76.52. Prices are down 4 percent this year.

The dollar traded at $1.3428 per euro after rising 0.3 percent yesterday. A stronger U.S. currency limits investor need for assets to hedge against inflation. Brent crude oil for November delivery declined as much as 42 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $78.15 on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday it fell 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $78.57. November Brent’s premium to the corresponding West Texas future in New York narrowed to $1.96 a barrel today, down from $3.45 a week earlier.....Read The Entire Article.


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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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