Even with the bull rush in crude oil commercials, which are the bulk of crude trading volume, are decreasing their open interest and increasing their short positions. Telling me they have no intention of being the ones caught holding crude oil at $72. Also, many traders believe that $70 dollars is the new "cheat" level for OPEC. The level where it becomes acceptable by their peers to ignore the production agreements.
Crude oil will get a free ride from the SP 500 Monday morning as we get a bullish spike in the markets. All of this will be slammed by any recovery on the U.S. Dollar and foreign currencies are all over bought at this point. Inventories will be big as always but Friday's unemployment numbers will be our biggest indicator of future demand.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish in the SP 500 signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 65.99
1st resistance is 67.29
2nd resistance is 67.95
3rd resistance is 69.25
1st support is 65.33
2nd support is 64.03
3rd support is 63.37
Natural Gas pivot point for Monday is 3.93
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish for natural gas signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.057 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews last week's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target.
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