Showing posts with label Crude. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crude. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

99 Problems… And Crude Oil Ain’t One of Them

By Marin Katusa, Chief Energy Investment Strategist

America has some serious problems.


Despite the fact that the United States spends $15,171 per student—more than any other country in the world—American students consistently trail their foreign counterparts, ranking 23rd in science and 31st in math.

The US also spends more than twice as much on health care per capita than the average developed country, yet underperforms most of the developed world in infant mortality and life expectancy. The U.S. rate of premature births, for example, resembles that of sub-Saharan Africa, rather than a First World country. And if you think Obamacare is going to change that… I have a bridge to sell you.

K Street has a bigger influence on American politics now than Main Street, and economic key players like the TBTF banks, the insurance industry, etc., have nearly carte blanche to act in whichever way they see fit, with no negative consequences.

The US government is spending more money to spy on Americans and foreigners than ever before. Since August 2011, the NSA has recorded 1.8 billion phone calls per day (!)—with the goal of creating a metadata repository capable of taking in 20 billion "record events" daily.

More than one in seven Americans are on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—better known as "food stamps."

The list goes on and on.

But there is one problem that America doesn't have......getting oil out of the ground.

After decades of declining domestic production, U.S. producers finally figured out how to extract oil from difficult locations, whether that's the shale formations or deposits under thousands of feet of water… and they've kept going ever since.

Today, the U.S. is one of the few countries in the world that have seen double digit growth in oil production over the past five years.


This presents some great investment opportunities for the discerning investor.

The oil industry's new treasure trove, the legendary Bakken formation, has turned formerly sleepy North Dakota into one of the hottest places in the United States. According to the Minneapolis Fed, "the Bakken oil boom is five times larger than the oil boom in the 1980s."

Unemployment in the state with 2.7% is the lowest in the nation; in Dickinson, ND, even the local McDonald's offers a $300 signing bonus to new hires, on top of an hourly wage of $15.
Here are some more fun facts, courtesy of the Fiscal Times:

  • There are now an estimated 40,856 oil industry jobs in North Dakota, plus an additional 18,000 jobs supporting the industry. Between 2010 and 2012, Williston, ND, a town with a population of only 16,000, produced 14,000 new jobs.
  • While other US states are struggling, some even being close to bankruptcy, North Dakota now has a billion-dollar budget surplus.
  • The number of ND taxpayers reporting income of more than $1 million nearly tripled between 2005 and 2011—and that in a state with a total population of 700,000.
  • The low population numbers will soon be a thing of the past, though: the population in the oil-producing region is expected to climb over 50% in the next 20 years.
  • 2,000-3,000 new housing units are built every year in Williston, ND, but it's still not enough to fill the need. Rents have gone from a pre-boom $350 per month for a two-bedroom apartment to over $2,000 today… the equivalent of a studio apartment in New York's rich Upper East Side.
The entire "energy map" of the United States has been altered by the Bakken: the Midwest, rather than the Gulf, is now the go-to area.

And who profits the most? The pipeline companies that can quickly adapt to this new situation and the refinery companies that can use this readily available domestic oil.

Though the rest of the world is trying to catch up, the United States has a huge head start over everyone else. The advancements it holds in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling had been built on the back of one and a half centuries of oil and gas exploration and the thousands of firms that service the drillers and producers.

So far, other countries simply lack the experience and the infrastructure to even compete.

In fact, American companies have spent 50% more money on energy research and development (R&D) than companies anywhere else in the world. What's more, they are exporting this technology across the globe, enabling other countries to unlock their own hydrocarbon reserves.

Obviously, they're not doing this out of philanthropy; there is a lot of money to be made by licensing out their technology and "lending a helping hand."

The biggest winners, hands down, are the energy-service companies that already know how to get oil out of US fields… and that apply these methods to other fields worldwide to boost production and reduce decline rates.

As the easy-to-extract oil depletes in the U.S. and abroad, oil companies and governments are beginning to look at past-producing oil fields. As it turns out, the producing wells drilled in the 1970s and '80s weren't very good at getting every drop of oil out of the ground. With modern technology, however, it is now possible to access previously out-of-reach deposits. Even a mere 5% or 10% improvement in oil recovery rates means billions, if not trillions, more in revenues.

Rediscovering previously overlooked fields was what started the boom in the Bakken as well as the Eagle Ford formations… and other countries are beginning to catch on.

We believe that this new trend of applying new technologies to old oil fields is not a fad but here to stay. That's why our energy portfolios are stocked with companies doing just that in Europe, Oceania, and even South America.

As it's becoming clear that the era of cheap, light, sweet crude is nearing its end, the industry is adapting to this new reality of oil becoming more difficult to access. And if investors want to make profits in today's energy markets, they, too, must learn to adapt.

Read our 2014 Energy Forecast for more details on what's hot and what's not in this year's energy markets. This free special report tells you about the 3 sectors we are most bullish on for this year, and which sectors to avoid in 2014. Read it now.


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Thursday, December 19, 2013

Cabot Oil & Gas raises 2013 production growth guidance view to 50%-55%

Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) says it recently achieved a new gross production record in the Marcellus shale of 1.5B cf/day, prompting it to raise its 2013 production growth guidance range to 50%-55% from 44%-54%; 2014 production growth guidance remains unchanged at 30%-50%.

COG also agrees to provide 350M btu/day of natural gas to the Dominion Cove Point LNG Terminal for 20 years commencing on the project's in-service date scheduled for 2017.

Here's a FREE Trend Analysis for Cabot Oil & Gas - COG


Saturday, October 22, 2011

Crude Oil Rises On Hopes of Euro Zone Deal

Crude oil futures rose Friday amid high hopes going into a weekend summit of European leaders working to resolve the sovereign debt crisis, following equities and the euro higher.

Prices jumped as trading opened in New York and were up as much as 3% in midmorning trade before settling back. Light, sweet crude for December delivery ended the day up $1.33, or 1.6%, to $87.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange settled 20 cents lower, or 0.2%, to $109.56 a barrel.

Traders and analysts said the market rose on the belief that European leaders will finally put forth a comprehensive settlement to the European credit crunch that has plagued markets on and off for the last year and a half. Government and finance officials were to hold a series of meetings in Brussels this weekend; French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel issued a joint statement saying they would put forth a plan by Wednesday......Read the entire Rigzone article.


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Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Price, Natural Gas Inventories Hit New Highs

Crude oil for December delivery surged to $88.21 a barrel Wednesday before settling at $87.81. The day's peak oil futures price, a two year high, followed a U.S. Department of Energy report showing that commercial crude inventories fell by 0.9 percent last week. According to the department's Energy Information Administration, oil stocks had declined to 364.9 million barrels as of last Friday 3.3 million barrels lower than the previous week's figure. The most recent number represents the first decline in crude stocks that EIA has reported in the past four weeks. December crude oil bottomed out at $86.10.

Natural gas futures, meanwhile, fell 3.8 percent after the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose to record territory last week. December natural gas settled at $4.05 per thousand cubic feet, a 16 cent drop from Tuesday, after trading within a range from $4.06 to $4.25. According to EIA, the amount of natural gas in storage hit 3,840 billion cubic feet (Bcf) as of November 5. The 19 Bcf net injection week-on-week propelled the inventory statistic to a new all time record. In addition, the figure is approximately 10 percent higher than the five year (2005-2009) average. The December gasoline futures price ended the day at $2.24 a gallon, slightly more than a nickel higher than Tuesday's settlement. Gasoline traded from $2.18 to $2.25.

Courtesy of Rigzone.Com

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Monday, October 25, 2010

Commodity Corner: Crude Oil Rises on Dollar Decline

The price of a barrel of crude oil for December delivery settled at $82.52 Monday, a 83 cent increase from the previous session. The increase stems largely from the weakening of the U.S. Dollar, which fell 0.34% against the euro Monday. Pending Federal Reserve action to increase the U.S. money supply in order to buy more federal government debt has placed downward pressure on the dollar. A weaker dollar tends to boost demand for oil from buyers holding other currencies.

Contributing to the bullish sentiment for oil was a report showing that existing home sales in the U.S. increased 10% last month. According to the National Association of Realtors, a housing recovery is occurring albeit in the early stages. An official with the trade group said the duration and impact of a foreclosure moratorium will influence how "choppy" the recovery will be. December crude traded from $81.45 to $83.28 Monday.

Milder than normal temperatures in typically heating depending U.S. regions such as the Northeast and Midwest have quashed demand for natural gas recently. Monday was no exception to this trend, with November natural gas settling a penny lower at $3.32 per thousand cubic feet. The front month gas price fluctuated between $3.29 and $3.40.

Labor unrest at French refineries and fuel depots is expected to reduce gasoline exports to the U.S. market. As a result, November gasoline futures rose two cents to settle at $2.08 a gallon. Gasoline peaked at $2.10 and bottomed out at $2.05.

Coutesy of Rigzone.Com


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Monday, September 13, 2010

Commodity Corner: Oil Gets Boost from China, Pipeline Closure

From the Rigzone staff....

The October crude oil futures price increased by nearly 1% Monday on news about China's industrial production growth rate.

Oil settled at $77.19 a barrel, a 74-cent increased from Friday, after the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported the country's August 2010 industrial production rate was 13.9% higher than the comparable figure for August 2009. Broken down by various sectors, the government agency reported year on year increases of 12.9% in raw chemical material and chemical product manufacturing; 20.1% in transport equipment manufacturing; and 14.9% in the production and supply of electricity, gas, and water.

Also supporting the oil futures price Monday was the ongoing closure of a key segment of Enbridge's Lakehead System near Chicago following a leak reported last Thursday. Enbridge announced Monday that it had recovered all but approximately 50 of the 6,100 barrels of crude that had leaked from the pipeline. The company had no current estimate of when it might restart the line, but it was working with shippers to divert crude oil volumes to other available pipelines and storage facilities.

Oil traded within a range from $76.36 to $78.04 Monday.

A suddenly active Atlantic hurricane season, and the possibility that energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico will be in the path of a tropical system, helped to nudge the natural gas price toward $4.00 Monday. Gas for October delivery settled at $3.94 per thousand cubic feet, a six-cent gain from Friday, with the existence of three systems circulating in the tropics. In the west-central Caribbean, a broad, poorly organized low-pressure system was moving west-northwestward Monday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center was giving the system a medium chance (40%) of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday afternoon.

Out in the mid-Atlantic, Hurricane Igor was packing maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour late Monday morning. Forecasters were expecting the storm to follow a northwestward track and become centered approximately 500 miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles by Thursday morning. Another system, Tropical Storm Julia, was churning near the Cape Verde Islands Monday afternoon and moving in a west-northwestward direction at 13 miles per hour. Thanks in part to shearing conditions produced by Igor, forecast models anticipate that Julia will become a low end hurricane and then weaken into a tropical storm.

The October natural gas futures price fluctuated from $3.80 to $3.97. Gasoline futures increased by a penny to settle at $1.98 a gallon Monday. The intraday range for gasoline was $1.97 to $2.01.

From Rigzone.Com

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Friday, May 14, 2010

Commodities Technical Outlook For Friday Morning


Crude oil's fall from 87.15 resumed by taking out 74.51 support and reaches as low as 72.72 so far. Intraday bias is now on the on the downside for 61.8% projection of 87.15 to 74.51 from 78.51 at 70.70 first. Break will have a test on key support zone of 68.59/69.50. On the upside, break of 78.51 resistance is needed to indicate that crude oil has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and another fall is still expected even in case of recovery. In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2.

Natural gas' rise from 3.855 extends further to as high as 4.414 so far and further rally might still be seen. However, strong resistance should be seen at 38.2% retracement of 5.68 to 3.81 at 4.524 to conclude the consolidation from 3.81 finally and bring down trend resumption. Below 4.109 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Decisive break of 3.81 low will target 3.0 psychological level next. In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 2.409 has completed at 6.108 and the three wave corrective structure of the rebound argues that it's merely a correction, or part of the consolidation in the larger down trend. Current fall from 6.108 might extend further for a retest on 2.409 low next after sustaining below 61.8% retracement of 2.409 to 6.108 at 3.822. Sustained trading above 4.386 resistance is needed to be the first sign that the trend in natural gas has reversed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.

While gold is losing some upside momentum, further rise would remain in favor as long as 1216.2 minor support holds. Current rally should extend to 1300 psychological level next. On the downside, below 1216.2 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1170.7 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. In the bigger picture, the break of 1227.5 indicates that correction from there is already completed at 1044.5 already. Longer term rally from 931.3 should have resumed. Next target will be 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340. Also, such rally is viewed as part of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253. We're looking at the prospect of extending the up trend towards 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level.



From the staff at ONG-Focus

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Friday, April 23, 2010

Crude Oil Reverses Losses as Equities Closed Higher


Crude oil initially slumped as global stock market tumbled amid revision of Greece's debt deficits. Together with disappointing inventory report released Wednesday, the front month WTI contract plummeted to as low as 81.73. However, buying interests emerged at that level as price reversed and ended the day flat at 83.7. Strong rebound in equities and attack of Iraqi oil pipeline also supported oil.

After the EU released a report revising up 2009's Greek fiscal deficit to 13.6% of GDP from the 12.7% of GDP estimated previously, the Greek Financial Ministry reassured the market that will endeavor to shrink the deficit by 4%. With the upward revision and potential further revision, the country is unlikely to reduce the deficit to 8.7% of GDP as previously estimated.

Worse still, Moody's announced to cut its rating on Greek debt to A3 from A2. Moreover, Greek officials said that the country has prepared to ask the EU for a bridge loan. In US trading session, the market was further pressured by President Barrack Obama's call for new financial reform as well as the Senate's approval of derivative legislation requiring US lenders to spin off their swaps trading desks.

Despite the negative news, stocks managed to crawled back and DJIA and S&P 500 ended the day gaining +0.1% and +0.2%, respectively. Encouraging corporate earnings, mildly bigger than expected decline in initial jobless claims and stronger existing home sales data restored sentiment.

Specifically to the oil market, damage of an oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey disrupted supply which will take around 3 days to resume.

Gold fell, halting a 2 day rally, as the euro tumbled to a new 11 month low against the dollar. However, the recovery after sliding to as low as 1132 signaled yellow metal's underlying strength. In fact, while the market has only focused on Greece's deficit issue, such problem has also rooted in other countries including the US, Japan and the UK. If worries intensify and spread to these countries, we believe gold should benefit.

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Oil Falls as Cold Eases Grip


Oil prices fell for a second day Tuesday as a global cold spell eased its grip and pulled crude back from a 15 month high. Crude prices have jumped 20 percent in the past month as the coldest weather in years took hold. The weather has boosted demand for heating oil in the U.S. Northeast, and natural gas almost everywhere.

Even in the South, where fruit crops were endangered by frigid temperatures, homeowners were reaching for the thermostat. Duke Energy said Tuesday that its customers in the Carolinas set a record on Monday for power demand during the winter. Yet the dollar has had more to do with rising energy prices than the cold.

Every time the dollar falls, more investors pile money into dollar based crude trades. Investors can get more crude for less if they hold euros or other relatively strong currencies. The government said Tuesday that it expects retail gasoline prices to average $2.84 per gallon this year, an increase of 49 cents from 2009. The Energy Information Administration said prices are likely to pass $3 per gallon during the spring or summer, largely because of rising crude prices.

Those prices are rising even though the EIA said gasoline consumption was flat in 2009 compared with 2008 when the economy was in a tailspin.....Read the entire article.

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Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Crude Oil Bulls Take a Clear Near Term Advantage


Crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday and spiked above October's high crossing at 83.19. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February extends this rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.18 would signal that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 83.52. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.18. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.22.

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Wednesday and the high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.626 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.038. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.798. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.626.

The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Wednesday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.68. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39 are needed confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72. First support is today's low crossing at 77.59. Second support is Tuesday's low crossing at 77.39.

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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Reaches Three-Month High Against Euro


Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Crude gained as the dollar rose to a three month high against the euro as Greece’s latest debt downgrade fanned concern that spiralling national debts may hamper the global economic recovery. The U.S. currency also gained after the Federal Reserve said yesterday the economy is strengthening and the deterioration in the labor market is abating.

“It is the dollar mainly because even though the Fed kept interest rates unchanged they did admit things are stabilizing in the U.S. economy,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London. “Sentiment in the dollar is turning positive.” Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as $1.01, or 1.4 percent, to $71.65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.05 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract added $1.97 to $72.66 in New York, the biggest gain in a month, after the Energy Department said U.S. crude inventories declined to the lowest since the week ended Jan. 9. Prices have gained 61 percent this year.....Read the entire article.


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Sunday, September 27, 2009

U.S. Gas Fund May Shrink With CFTC Rules

U.S. Natural Gas Fund, the largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, may be forced to shrink if U.S. regulators tighten limits on energy speculation, said John Hyland, the fund’s chief investment officer. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission may cap energy investments amid concern speculators contributed to record high commodity prices last year. New limits may force the fund to reduce shares, Hyland said in a Bloomberg television interview.

“The problem there is the shareholders are in UNG because they want the natural gas exposure,” Hyland said. The $4 billion fund is an “easy target” for politicians who need a “villain” to blame for high energy prices, he said. Interest in the fund boomed this year. Shares outstanding grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million, pushing the ETF’s natural gas holdings to a July peak equal to 20 percent of all the gas consumed in the U.S. last year..... Read the entire article

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Crude Consolidates Just Below our Previous 3rd Tier Downtrend Line


Crude futures are hanging just below our previous 3rd tier downtrend line after posting a solid recovery from our 1st tier uptrend line. Crude futures picked themselves up after Friday's sell off on large volume following broad based depreciation of the Dollar coupled with the S&P breaking through 1050. Investors returned to risk in the aftermath of better than expected global economic data. The most positive catalyst for crude futures was the impressive showing in Core Retail Sales on Tuesday. Improvement in consumption helps raise the outlook for present and future demand for commodities such as crude. As for the supply side, the U.S. reported another large inventory shortage for the third time in the past four weeks. The dramatic drop in supply combined.....Read the entire article

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