Crude Oil Spikes to Near $94 After Sharp Drop

The price of oil rose to near $94 a barrel on Monday, rebounding after sharp losses last week that were due to concerns over abundant supplies and weak U.S. employment figures.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark oil for May delivery was up 97 cents to $93.67 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract fell 56 cents on Friday and was down 5 percent from midweek.

The price of oil last week fell after a weak jobs report cast doubt on the strength of the U.S. economy. The Labor Department reported the economy added 88,000 jobs in March, the fewest in nine months. The slowdown may signal the economy will weaken this spring.

"The latest jobs data provide a useful reminder that this is still an uneven recovery in the U.S. economy," said Caroline Bain, commodities analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

She expects oil prices to average less than $90 a barrel in the second quarter of 2013 "reflecting a comfortable market balance, lower refinery runs and only very modest growth in consumption."

The U.S. Energy Department last week reported that crude in storage was at its highest level since 1990 even though refiners had begun to ramp up gasoline production to get ready for the summer driving season. Now the economy looks like it might not grow fast enough to churn through the nation's high supplies.

What are today's top 50 stocks? This free list will share the big market movers on a daily basis to help you find trading opportunities.

Crude Oil Trades Near Three Days Highs on U.S. Economic Outlook

Crude oil traded near the highest close in three days before reports that may show a strengthening of the economy in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Futures were little changed in New York after rising 0.2 percent last week. Consumer purchases that account for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy probably climbed by the most since the end of 2010, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an April 27 Commerce Department report. Iraq halted crude exports from northern fields because of a technical fault at a pipeline network in neighboring Turkey, the Oil Ministry said.

Crude for June delivery was at $103.77 a barrel, down 11 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:40 a.m. Sydney time. The contract rose 1.1 percent to $103.88 on April 20, the highest close since April 17. Front month prices are 5 percent higher this year. Brent oil for June settlement was at $118.63 a barrel, down 13 cents, on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark contract’s front month premium to West Texas Intermediate was at $14.85, from $14.88 on April 20.

Iraq’s crude exports stopped at 7:45 p.m. on April 21, the ministry said in a statement on the website of the official National Media Center yesterday. The nation normally exports 450,000 to 500,000 barrels a day from northern fields through Turkey. It ships most of its oil from the south on tankers sailing from the Persian Gulf.

U.S. consumer spending may have risen 2.3 percent last quarter, according to the Bloomberg survey. That would follow a 2.1 percent gain in the prior period. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.5 percent annual rate after advancing 3 percent in the previous three months, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey before the Commerce Department’s April 27 release.

Posted courtesy of Bloomberg News

Get Ready for this weeks trading with "Today's 50 Top Trending Stocks"

Crude Oil Up on Weaker Dollar, Seaway Pipeline News

Crude oil rose as the reversal date for the Seaway crude pipeline was moved up, causing the spread between New York traded futures and Brent in London to narrow. The bulls also gained support from retail sales in the U.S. increased more than forecast in March.

Oil closed up $0.16 a barrel at $102.99 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more short covering and bargain hunting. A lower U.S. dollar index supported crude today. However, a six week old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Gold futures closed down $11.20 an ounce at $1,649.00 today. Prices closed near mid range today as the bulls are fading again. Bears are working on re establishing a six week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The bears have regained the slight near term technical advantage.

Natural gas closed up 3.6 cents at $2.016 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit a contract and 10 year low. The bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market low is close at hand.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 33 points at 79.72 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of 80.38.

How To Tell Where Other Traders Have Placed Their Buy and Sell Orders

Gold and Crude Oil Trend Analysis

With a Chart Analysis Score of -50, gold is stuck in a trading range. Despite the move up and pullback in gold last week, it did not change the status of our weekly Trade Triangle. We remain positive on this market longer term and expect we will see it move much higher in 2012 as inflation kicks in around the world. Long term traders should remain positive for this precious metal. Intermediate term traders should be out of this market at the moment and on the sidelines waiting for a buy signal with the weekly Trade Triangle.

BIG PICTURE   Trading Range
Monthly trade triangles for Long term trends = Bullish
weekly trade triangles for intermediate term trends = Bearish
daily trade triangles for short term trends = Bearish
Combined Strength of Trend Score = -50

The $101.75 area basis the January contract appears to be offering resistance for crude oil at the present time. Crude oil remains the shining star of the commodity world and has become the currency of choice. With all of our Trade Triangles green, giving us a +90 Chart analysis score, it would appear as though we are in a strong bullish trend. At the present time all our Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode which is the direction of the major long term trend. Major resistance remains between the $102 and $103 levels. Long term, and intermediate term traders should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

BIG PICTURE Strong Trend Bullish
Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Bullish
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Bullish
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Bullish

Combined Strength of Trend Score = +90

HOW TO USE THE MARKETCLUB SCORING SYSTEM
Score: 50 – 65 Trading Range
Score: 70 – 80 Emerging Trend
Score: 85 – 100 Strong Trend


Gold’s 4th Wave Consolidation Nears Completion and Breakout

Crude Oil Market Summary and Trend Analysis For Tuesday November 22nd

We are now tracking the January contract. No change in our commentary from yesterday. As mentioned last week, we felt that the crude oil market was topping out. In retrospect, we have confirmation that is indeed the case. We are now expecting and look for support to come in at $94.55 (basis the January contract), which is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

At the present time, both our monthly and weekly Trade Triangles remain in a positive mode, which is the direction of the major long term trend. Resistance is the $100 level. Long term, Intermediate term should be long this market with appropriate money management stops.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Positive
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Negative

Combined Strength of Trend Score = +85

Crude Oil Futures Decline on Concern Ireland Crisis May Spread, Tension in Korea

Crude oil fell from a one week high on concern Ireland’s debt crisis will spread to Portugal and Spain, reducing economic growth and fuel demand, and as tensions in Korea mounted. Oil dropped as the euro declined to a two month low against the dollar, curbing investor demand for commodities. Euro area finance ministers plan to complete an agreement on an Irish bailout on Nov. 28, a European Union official said on condition of anonymity. North Korea warned its confrontation with South Korea could lead to war.

“Concerns that the European debt crisis will spread pushed the euro to a new two month low against the dollar,” said Tom Bentz, a broker with BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. The oil market is down “primarily on European debt worries.” Crude oil for January delivery slipped 10 cents to settle at $83.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The January contract gained 2.2 percent this week. The front month contract added 2.8 percent for the week and has increased 7.4 percent in the past year.

Brent crude oil for January settlement declined 52 cents, or 0.6 percent, to end the session at $85.58 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Brent added 1.5 percent for the week. Shoppers crowded U.S. stores for Black Friday, the biggest shopping day of the year and a bellwether for the holiday season. Analysts’ estimates for holiday sales vary from little changed to increases of 4.5 percent. The National Retail Federation has forecast November-December holiday sales will rise by 2.3 percent from a year ago, the most since 2006.......Read the entire article.

Share

Crude Oil Pares Monthly Gain as Asian Shares Decline, Dollar Rebounds

Crude oil fell in New York, trimming a second monthly gain, as Asian equities dropped and the dollar’s rebound curbed investor demand for raw materials. Crude gave up yesterday’s 0.3 percent increase as equities declined, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index toward its second weekly drop. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consuming nation, reached the highest in 17 months after surging 5 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 22, according to Energy Department data. Futures have climbed 2.2 percent this month after an 11 percent rally in September.

“There’s no real consensus in markets so that’s why you’re getting this choppy trading where people are changing their view quite regularly, and that’s creating volatility,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “It does seem to be more sentiment driven and currency driven.” Crude for December delivery declined as much as 55 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $81.63 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $81.71 at 1:50 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract added 24 cents to $82.18. Prices, little changed this week, have gained 3 percent since the start of the year.

The dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.3876 against the 16 nation euro, damping the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation. The yen rose against all major currencies......Read the entire article.


Every Once in a While, You Find Something Amazing....Check out Trend TVShare

Lind-Waldock: Crude Oil Poised to Reach $90 a Barrel

Crude oil is poised to reach $90 a barrel by the middle of December, according to technical analysis by Lind-Waldock in Chicago. The December contract, which became the front month contract yesterday, has been trading in an uptrend, a pattern of higher peaks and higher valleys, since touching a low of $75.10 on Sept. 23, Blake Robben, a strategist at Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global Ltd., said in an interview.

“Since then, the market has made higher highs and higher lows,” Robben said. A line drawn from the Sept. 23 low to the Oct. 20 low of $79.90 projects to $90 by the middle of December, he said. The initial target for the rising price is $86.52, the high on May 13, which may be reached by the middle of November, Robben said.

“If we close below $79.90, the uptrend is over and we’re back in a trading range of $75 to $85,” he said. Crude oil for December delivery settled at $80.56 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bloomberg reporter Barbara Powell can be reached at Bpowell4@bloomberg.net.


Share

Oil Falls Below $70 on Stronger Dollar, Ample U.S. Supplies

Crude oil fell below $70 a barrel for the first time in two months as the dollar gained and ample U.S. fuel supplies undermined confidence demand is recovering. Prices have dropped 11 percent in seven days, the longest losing stretch since September 2006, as gasoline supplies climbed to the highest level since April and a stronger dollar curbed investor appetite for commodities. “Prices are still quite high given the fundamentals of the market,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. “We may see a lot of positions cashed in between now and the end of the year. This may lead prices to $60 or even lower.”

Crude oil for January delivery fell 62 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $70.05 a barrel at 1:16 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $69.81, the lowest since Oct. 8. Prices are up 57 percent this year. Gasoline for January delivery dipped 2.83 cents, or 1.5 percent, to $1.829 a gallon in New York. The contract touched $1.824, the lowest since Oct. 13. Heating oil for January delivery fell 1.04 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $1.8989 a gallon. The dollar traded at $1.4695 per euro, up 0.2 percent from $1.4726 yesterday.

Gasoline stockpiles climbed 2.25 million barrels to 216.3 million last week, the highest since the week ended April 17, an Energy Department report showed yesterday. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, increased 1.62 million barrels to 167.3 million.....Read the entire article.


What do all market wizards have in common?



Share

UNG Just Get's More and More Interesting

I have received some "entertaining" emails and comments from fellow traders about the fact that even with all of the negative and controversial news surrounding UNG I do maintain a small swing position in UNG. After 20 years of this I have just developed a habit for making sure I am in the most "news worthy" trades, some how, good or bad.

I just found this in my in box from Phil's Stock World.....

Shares of the natural gas exchange traded fund have slipped 4.4% lower today to reach a 5 year low of $10.64. Despite the present weakness in UNG, one investor was seen making far term bullish bets on the fund by targeting the April 2010 contract. It appears that the trader established a bullish reversal play by shedding 3,000 puts at the April 10 strike for 1.85 apiece in order to purchase 3,000 calls at the higher April 11 strike for 1.82 each. The trader receives a net credit of 3 pennies per contract and has positioned himself to add to his gains if shares rally higher than $11.00 by expiration. The short put position indicates that the investor is happy to have shares put to him at an effective price of $8.15 in the event that the put options land in the money by expiration. Shares need only remain higher than $10.00 for this individual to retain the 3 cent credit indefinitely.

This will be an amazing trade, for someone, somehow, someway.