Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery for Week Ending June 6th

We've asked Michael Seery of to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. Mike has been a Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.......

Crude oil futures traded in a very tight range this week going out this Friday at 102.70 finishing slightly higher as the volatility is extremely low at the current time as I’m sitting on the sidelines in this market as I do think prices are headed higher but the trend is very weak and I must find another market that is trending stronger. If you look at the chart over the last 6 months longer term it’s still in a bullish trend with the possibility of retesting last Augusts high during the Syrian crisis around 110/112 a barrel as economies around the world are improving and this is supporting the crude oil market with the S&P 500 at all time highs once again today as the United States added 217,000 new jobs which are all supporting crude oil prices so I’d be looking at buying on dips rather than selling on rallies.

If you’re looking to get into this market one recommendation would be if your bullish crude oil prices & think that prices bottomed in yesterday’s trade I would buy today at 102.70 while placing my stop below yesterday’s low which is also the 10 day low at 101.70 risking $1,000 per contract and if you’re looking to get short this market my recommendation would be to sell today’s price while placing my stop above the 10 day high which is 104.20 risking around $1,500 per contract as the chart structure is excellent because of low volatility.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Gold futures in the August contract traded in a very tight and narrow trading range this week going out last Friday at 1,246 and settling this Friday at 1,251 up about $5 for the week, however I’m still recommending a short position when prices broke below 1,267 placing your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,290 risking around $40 or $4,000 per contract from today’s price levels. Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that trend is lower as major support is at 1,240 and if that level is broken I would think you have to retest 1,200 as the same old story continues with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs once again as money is coming out of the gold sector into equities and I think that trend is going to continue especially with low interest rates staying around for quite some time. At the current time there are no geopolitical events that one must rush into the gold market with the stock market continuing its trend higher it’s difficult for gold to rally at this time so I do see lower prices ahead but make sure you do place your stop loss at the 2 week high in case the trend does change as an investor or trader you always must have an exit strategy.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

The S&P 500 continues its bullish momentum trading up another 8 points at 1947 and I continue to harp on the fact that this market is going higher due to several bullish fundamental reasons including stock buybacks, increasing dividends, a Federal government that want higher equity prices while maintaining extremely low interest rates so this is the perfect storm to the upside in the S&P 500 continuing its bullish trend to the upside. S&P 500 futures contract is trading far above its 20 & 100 day moving average with outstanding chart structure I’ve been recommending buying this market for quite some time and I still believe that prices will move higher as this Monday morning as Apple Computer will split 7 to 1 and I think that will bring even more buying pushing this market higher once again as I think 2000 is in the cards in the S&P in the next couple of months and I do believe that the NASDAQ 100 will hit all-time highs breaking above 5000 this year so continue to play this to the upside and if you’re lucky enough to get any type of dip take advantage while placing your stop below the 10 day low of 1880.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

Coffee futures in the September contract are up 300 points this Friday afternoon in New York currently trading at 174.60 still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average with relatively low volatility with major support right at the 170 level which is been hit on 6 different occasions and bounces off every single time as traders are awaiting estimates on the Brazilian crop currently being harvested and that will certainly send high volatility back into this market. Coffee prices settled last Friday at 180 finishing down around 500 points for the week continuing its short-term down trend and I’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a buying opportunity around the 165 level as I do think prices to the downside are limited as I still have many contacts in Brazil telling me that they think 43 million bags is on the high estimate but only time will tell so keep a close eye on this market as the sleeping giant will wake once again in my opinion.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

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Weekly Futures Recap With Mike Seery - Crude Oil, SP 500, Gold and Coffee

We've ask our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been Senior Analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets......

Crude oil futures in the July contract finished the week down about $1.50 closing around 102.70 a barrel after hitting 1 year highs earlier in the week. The crude oil market is trading above its 20 & 100 day moving average continuing its bullish trend in recent months as economies around the world are improving as well as the U.S stock market hitting new all time highs on a daily basis helping support crude oil prices. We have entered the strong demand season for unleaded gasoline as there will be a lot of drivers on the road increasing demand which could propel prices back up to last August highs of around 112 a barrel. If you are looking to take advantage of this recent dip in crude oil prices I would remain a buyer as long as prices stay above the 10 day low of 101 a barrel which is about $1.75 away or $900 risk per contract.

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The S&P 500 hit all time highs once again along with the transports this week as the Vix or fear index is at a 7 year low as the S&P 500 traded up another 20 points this week at 1917 as Apple Computer was also up $20 this week currently trading at 635 a share which is propelling the rest of the equity markets higher as the trend seems to be getting stronger and stronger and I’m still recommending a long position in this market .The S&P 500 is trading far above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is higher and with the 10 year note trading at 2.45% which is also propelling stock prices higher as companies are able to borrow large amounts of money at practically nothing while increasing dividends while also buying back their shares decreasing their float therefore increasing earnings per share. I love this market to the upside for one reason because the market has very little volatility and continues to grind higher with solid chart structure to continue to play this to the upside.
TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Gold futures in the August contract finished down for the 5th straight trading session finishing lower by 45 dollars this week at 1,245 an ounce continuing its bearish trend trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average as I remain bearish gold prices as I think there’s a high probability of a retest of 1,200 and if that level is broken look at a re test near the contract low of 1,180 as prices look very bearish in my opinion. You have to ask yourself at this time would you rather own gold or stocks as investors are choosing to sell their gold and are buying stocks and it seems like on a daily basis. The problem with gold right now is everybody’s buying the S&P 500 which hit another all time high today as there is a very little interest in purchasing gold at the current time especially with bond yields continuing to move lower as the money is going into bonds and stocks and out of gold. Gold futures are still higher by about $60 in the year 2014 but traded as high as 1,390 earlier in the year and has given back much of this year’s gains that it had and I do think the trend continues to the downside and if you took my original recommendation place your stop above the 10 day high minimizing risk in case the trend does change. Gold is famous for having large washout days meaning it will sell off $50 in one day and volatility will spike as I said in yesterday’s blog & I sense one of those days is coming as the trend seems to be getting stronger.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: SOLID

Coffee futures in New York are sharply lower this Friday afternoon trading down 445 points at 177.50 a pound trading down for the week continuing its short term down trend as prices spiked to a low of 170.80 on Tuesday as I have been recommending a long position in this market between 165 – 170 so currently I’m still sitting on the sidelines waiting for the opportunity to arrive. A large coffee exporter named Ipanema Coffee is suggesting that yields could drop by as much as 40% as there are small beans in the cherries which could spike up prices if they are correct on their assessment as the numbers will be coming in the next couple of weeks as in the beginning of the season we were expecting 53 million bags then down to 43 million bags due to the severe drought and anything lower than 43 million bags would be bullish this market and I do expect volatility to rise here in the next couple of weeks. Prices have been going sideways to lower in the last couple of weeks because of the fact that we have very little fresh fundamental news on crop size but that will change quickly so continue to look to be a buyer at 165 – 170 level as you will never pick a bottom in coffee but I do not think prices are headed back down 140 as this whole rally started at 125 as there was significant damage done as I talked to many producers down in Brazil and this was no joke as this was one of the worst droughts in history. Coffee prices are trading below their 20 day moving average in the right near their 100 day moving average which has not happened in more than 4 months telling you that the trend is mixed at the current time as I’m laying in the weeds waiting for an entry.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: IMPROVING

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