Our trading partner Doc Severson is giving away one of his favorite options trading strategies. He just released a few copies of this new & revised version of The Iron Condor Trading Strategy as a way to restore hope to struggling traders. This is not a promotional tease, it's a 100% fully disclosed options trading strategy.
Having looked at the new version myself I can tell you that you are going to want to reference this material over and over so be sure to save it to your computer while the link is still live.
With it's limited availability you'll want to click here to Download Your FREE Iron Condor Trading Strategy PDF file right away.
Doc offers a really unique perspective on options trading and chances are this will be the first time you've ever seen a trading strategy like this before. This system is so simple that you'll be able to go into the markets and trade it right away.
This strategy is detailed in an
easy to understand training video and blueprint with no strings attached.
Now you decide, are you trading with us or against us?
See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO
The Crude Oil Trader
Download Your FREE Iron Condor Trading Strategy
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Gold, Crude Oil & the SPX Trends and Setups
Over the past year our long term trends and outlooks have not changed for gold, oil or the SP500. Though there has been a lot of sideways price action to keep everyone one their toes and focused on the short term charts.
As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.
The key to investing success is to always trade with the long term trend and stick with it until price and volume clearly signals a reversal/down trend. Doing this means you truly never catch the market top nor do you catch market bottoms. But the important thing is that you do catch the low risk trending stage of an investment (stage 2 – Bull Market, Stage 4 Bear Market).
Lets take a look at the charts and see where prices stand in the grand scheme of things.
Gold Weekly Futures Trading Chart:
Last week to talk about about how precious metals are nearing a major tipping point and to be aware of those levels because the next move is likely to be huge and you do not want to miss it.
Overall gold and silver remain in a secular bull market and has gone through many similar pauses to what we are watching unfold over the past year. As mentioned above the gold market looks to be trying to not only shake investors out but to wait them out also with this 18 month volatile sideways trend.
A lot of gold bugs, gold and stock investors of mining stocks are starting to give up which can been seen in the price and selling volume for these investments recently. We are contrarians by nature so when we see the masses running for the door we start to become interested in what everyone is unloading at bargain prices.
Gold is now entering an oversold panic selling phase which happens to be at major long term support. This bodes well for a strong bounce or start of a new bull market leg higher for this shiny metal. If gold breaks below $1500 – 1530 levels it could trigger a bear market for precious metals but until then we're bullish at this price. We think we could see another spike lower in gold to test the $1500- $1530 level this week but after that it could be off to the races to new highs.
Crude Oil Weekly Trading Chart:
Crude oil had a huge bull market from 2009 until 2011 but since then has been trading sideways in a narrowing bullish range. We expect some big moves this year for oil and technical analysis puts the odds on higher prices. If we do get a breakout and rally then $130 will likely be reached. But if price breaks down then a sharp drop to $50 per barrel looks likely.
Utility & Energy Stocks – XLU – XLE – Weekly Investing Chart
The utility sector has done well and continues to look very bullish for 2013. This high dividend paying sector is liked by many and the price action speaks for its self. If the overall financial market starts to peak then these sectors should hold up well because they are services, dividend and a commodity play wrapped in one.
SP500 Trend Daily Chart:
The SP500 continues to be in an uptrend which we are trading with until price and volume tells us otherwise. But there are some early warning signs that another correction or a full blown bear market may be just around the corner.
Again, sticking with the uptrend is key, but knowing what to look for and prepare for is important so that when the trend does change your transition from long positions to short positions is a simple measured move in your portfolios.
Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, we remain bullish on stocks and commodity related stocks until I see a trend change in the SP500.
Energy sector is doing well and looks bullish for the next month. As for gold and gold miners, we feel they are entering a low risk entry point to start building a new long position. Risk is low compared to potential reward.
When the price of a commodity or index trade near the apex of a narrowing range or major long term support/resistance level volatility typically increases as fear and greed become heightened which creates larger daily price swings. So be prepared for some turbulence in the coming weeks while the market shakes things up.
If you like our work then be sure to get on our free mailing list to get these emails each week on various investments and investment ideas.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.
The key to investing success is to always trade with the long term trend and stick with it until price and volume clearly signals a reversal/down trend. Doing this means you truly never catch the market top nor do you catch market bottoms. But the important thing is that you do catch the low risk trending stage of an investment (stage 2 – Bull Market, Stage 4 Bear Market).
Lets take a look at the charts and see where prices stand in the grand scheme of things.
Gold Weekly Futures Trading Chart:
Last week to talk about about how precious metals are nearing a major tipping point and to be aware of those levels because the next move is likely to be huge and you do not want to miss it.
Overall gold and silver remain in a secular bull market and has gone through many similar pauses to what we are watching unfold over the past year. As mentioned above the gold market looks to be trying to not only shake investors out but to wait them out also with this 18 month volatile sideways trend.
A lot of gold bugs, gold and stock investors of mining stocks are starting to give up which can been seen in the price and selling volume for these investments recently. We are contrarians by nature so when we see the masses running for the door we start to become interested in what everyone is unloading at bargain prices.
Gold is now entering an oversold panic selling phase which happens to be at major long term support. This bodes well for a strong bounce or start of a new bull market leg higher for this shiny metal. If gold breaks below $1500 – 1530 levels it could trigger a bear market for precious metals but until then we're bullish at this price. We think we could see another spike lower in gold to test the $1500- $1530 level this week but after that it could be off to the races to new highs.
Crude Oil Weekly Trading Chart:
Crude oil had a huge bull market from 2009 until 2011 but since then has been trading sideways in a narrowing bullish range. We expect some big moves this year for oil and technical analysis puts the odds on higher prices. If we do get a breakout and rally then $130 will likely be reached. But if price breaks down then a sharp drop to $50 per barrel looks likely.
Utility & Energy Stocks – XLU – XLE – Weekly Investing Chart
The utility sector has done well and continues to look very bullish for 2013. This high dividend paying sector is liked by many and the price action speaks for its self. If the overall financial market starts to peak then these sectors should hold up well because they are services, dividend and a commodity play wrapped in one.
SP500 Trend Daily Chart:
The SP500 continues to be in an uptrend which we are trading with until price and volume tells us otherwise. But there are some early warning signs that another correction or a full blown bear market may be just around the corner.
Again, sticking with the uptrend is key, but knowing what to look for and prepare for is important so that when the trend does change your transition from long positions to short positions is a simple measured move in your portfolios.
Weekend Trend Conclusion:
In short, we remain bullish on stocks and commodity related stocks until I see a trend change in the SP500.
Energy sector is doing well and looks bullish for the next month. As for gold and gold miners, we feel they are entering a low risk entry point to start building a new long position. Risk is low compared to potential reward.
When the price of a commodity or index trade near the apex of a narrowing range or major long term support/resistance level volatility typically increases as fear and greed become heightened which creates larger daily price swings. So be prepared for some turbulence in the coming weeks while the market shakes things up.
If you like our work then be sure to get on our free mailing list to get these emails each week on various investments and investment ideas.
Get our Free Trading Videos, Lessons and eBook today!
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Todd’s Secret Weapon, the 30 Minute Breakout Strategy
It was American writer Orison Swett Marden who observed, “A good system shortens the road to the goal.”
If you have a trading goal, but the lack a proven system for getting there, grab veteran trader Todd Mitchell’s step by step blueprint for setting up a profitable trade right now.
Get Todd's "30 Minute E-Mini Breakout, valued at $497"
He’s fine tuned and perfected a system for making money during just the first 30 minutes of the trading day. Yes, only 30 minutes....Please don’t miss out on this.
If you visit this website right now, you can download this strategy at no cost to you whatsoever. Everything you will need to know about trading this strategy is revealed to you. Nothing is being held back.
Take a few minutes to just click here and watch the 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout video and see what I mean.
Todd Mitchell is only making this free report and trading tutorial available for a limited time.
Get the free strategy now ... trade it tomorrow.
If you have a trading goal, but the lack a proven system for getting there, grab veteran trader Todd Mitchell’s step by step blueprint for setting up a profitable trade right now.
Get Todd's "30 Minute E-Mini Breakout, valued at $497"
He’s fine tuned and perfected a system for making money during just the first 30 minutes of the trading day. Yes, only 30 minutes....Please don’t miss out on this.
If you visit this website right now, you can download this strategy at no cost to you whatsoever. Everything you will need to know about trading this strategy is revealed to you. Nothing is being held back.
Take a few minutes to just click here and watch the 30 Minute E-Mini Breakout video and see what I mean.
Todd Mitchell is only making this free report and trading tutorial available for a limited time.
Get the free strategy now ... trade it tomorrow.
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Do You Know Where to Find our MarketClub Webinar Archives?
Here is a link to our latest webinar from February 9th...."Strategy Trading Webinar"
Here is a link to our "Upcoming Webinar Page". It will update with the latest webinar and information so you can continue to use the same link for your users for multiple webinars. It also has a list of archived webinars so that users can see all past webinars.
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Thursday, December 2, 2010
Do You Really Understand How to Use Market Sentiment and Herd Mentality in Your Trading
We don't know of any trader better suited to teach us how to take advantage of market psychology then Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy.Com. In this report Chris is going to teach you how to read market sentiment so you can day trade and swing trade consistently to earn 3-5% per month trading ETFs. I remember always hearing the pro’s say “if you want to make money, you need to trade against the herd (masses)”. This sounds easy but just how do we go about doing that? I am about to show you…
In short, you must start looking at the market completely backwards. I focus on buying into heavy volume sell offs (panic) and selling position into heavy volume breakouts (greed). This was a very tough transition for me to make and its best to paper trade it for while until you are comfortable with buying into fear and selling into greed. It will feel completely wrong at the beginning but the profits speak for themselves!
The Four Charts I Follow Closely
The 4 main tools need to make money from trading against the herd. While this is only one of my trading strategies it is my favorite. I trade the ES futures contract and some sometimes the SDS and SSO exchange traded funds. This may seem basic at first glance but when you combine them you end up with a highly effective trading strategy.
SP500 - 5 Minute Chart
Here is a 5 minute chart of the SP500 showing where I went short. It is important to know that over the past 2 years the SP500 has provided a 1.25% profit on average each time one of these extreme sentiment readings occur on the charts.
The red indicator on the chart is a simple volume based indicator which measures fear and greed in the market and is very powerful for picking market tops and bottoms. It’s calculated by taking the NYSE up volume and dividing it by the down volume. In short, when you see this indicator start to rise it tells us the majority of traders (the herd) are buying and we should start to look at taking a short position.
Let me show you how to find the trade using the market sentiment....
The NYSE advance/ decline line
Is the most easy to understand. How I use this is simple, when there are 1500+ stocks trading up on the day then the market is getting overbought meaning too many stocks have moved up in a short period of time and traders will most likely start taking profits or exit their positions. I also look at the intraday chart for topping patterns or resistance levels then wait for the other two indicators to confirm Selling Volume on the chart above and the put/call ratio before going short the market.
The last indicator I follow is the put/call ratio
This indicator can be a little tougher to use at times because when the market is trending down the ratio tends to fluctuate near the top or bottom of its range during up or down trends. In a down trend is stays near the top which the chart below shows.
When the broad market bounces and we see the put/call ratio drop into the lower band it’s telling me the majority of traders have finally become bullish. This tends to happen once a previous high is broken as it triggers short covering and breakout traders start to buy.
Trading Market Sentiment Conclusion:
All you need to use these indicators, focus on the 15 minute charts, trade only with trend, and take profits at 1%, 2% and keep a small position open for much larger gains.
It is critical that once you take partial profits once you reach a 1% gain then you must start moving your protective stop into the money to lock in a profit for the balance of the position. All three indicators need to reach the extreme levels at the same time for a trade to be triggered. I have seen the market trend in the extreme levels for several weeks continuing to move up day after day and you will get stuck in that situation if you jump the gun entering a trade before each indicator signals an extreme level.
Final thoughts, his strategy works just as well in a bull market but there are some minor changes required on each of the indicators. Also I use inter market analysis following the US Dollar, Gold, Bonds and the Volatility Index for other trading strategies which I incorporate using the market sentiment.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups checkout his service at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Share
In short, you must start looking at the market completely backwards. I focus on buying into heavy volume sell offs (panic) and selling position into heavy volume breakouts (greed). This was a very tough transition for me to make and its best to paper trade it for while until you are comfortable with buying into fear and selling into greed. It will feel completely wrong at the beginning but the profits speak for themselves!
The Four Charts I Follow Closely
The 4 main tools need to make money from trading against the herd. While this is only one of my trading strategies it is my favorite. I trade the ES futures contract and some sometimes the SDS and SSO exchange traded funds. This may seem basic at first glance but when you combine them you end up with a highly effective trading strategy.
SP500 - 5 Minute Chart
Here is a 5 minute chart of the SP500 showing where I went short. It is important to know that over the past 2 years the SP500 has provided a 1.25% profit on average each time one of these extreme sentiment readings occur on the charts.
The red indicator on the chart is a simple volume based indicator which measures fear and greed in the market and is very powerful for picking market tops and bottoms. It’s calculated by taking the NYSE up volume and dividing it by the down volume. In short, when you see this indicator start to rise it tells us the majority of traders (the herd) are buying and we should start to look at taking a short position.
Let me show you how to find the trade using the market sentiment....
The NYSE advance/ decline line
Is the most easy to understand. How I use this is simple, when there are 1500+ stocks trading up on the day then the market is getting overbought meaning too many stocks have moved up in a short period of time and traders will most likely start taking profits or exit their positions. I also look at the intraday chart for topping patterns or resistance levels then wait for the other two indicators to confirm Selling Volume on the chart above and the put/call ratio before going short the market.
The last indicator I follow is the put/call ratio
This indicator can be a little tougher to use at times because when the market is trending down the ratio tends to fluctuate near the top or bottom of its range during up or down trends. In a down trend is stays near the top which the chart below shows.
When the broad market bounces and we see the put/call ratio drop into the lower band it’s telling me the majority of traders have finally become bullish. This tends to happen once a previous high is broken as it triggers short covering and breakout traders start to buy.
Trading Market Sentiment Conclusion:
All you need to use these indicators, focus on the 15 minute charts, trade only with trend, and take profits at 1%, 2% and keep a small position open for much larger gains.
It is critical that once you take partial profits once you reach a 1% gain then you must start moving your protective stop into the money to lock in a profit for the balance of the position. All three indicators need to reach the extreme levels at the same time for a trade to be triggered. I have seen the market trend in the extreme levels for several weeks continuing to move up day after day and you will get stuck in that situation if you jump the gun entering a trade before each indicator signals an extreme level.
Final thoughts, his strategy works just as well in a bull market but there are some minor changes required on each of the indicators. Also I use inter market analysis following the US Dollar, Gold, Bonds and the Volatility Index for other trading strategies which I incorporate using the market sentiment.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups checkout his service at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Share
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Understanding Market Sentiment and Herd Mentality
In this report we are going to teach you how to read market sentiment so you can day trade and swing trade consistently to earn 3-5% per month trading ETFs. I remember always hearing the pro’s say “if you want to make money, you need to trade against the herd (masses)”. This sounds easy but just how do we go about doing that? I am about to show you…
In short, you must start looking at the market completely backwards. I focus on buying into heavy volume sell offs (panic) and selling position into heavy volume breakouts (greed). This was a very tough transition for me to make and its best to paper trade it for while until you are comfortable with buying into fear and selling into greed. It will feel completely wrong at the beginning but the profits speak for themselves!
The Four Charts I Follow Closely
The 4 main tools need to make money from trading against the herd. While this is only one of my trading strategies it is my favorite. I trade the ES futures contract and some sometimes the SDS and SSO exchange traded funds. This may seem basic at first glance but when you combine them you end up with a highly effective trading strategy.
SP500 - 5 Minute Chart
Here is a 5 minute chart of the SP500 showing where I went short. It is important to know that over the past 2 years the SP500 has provided a 1.25% profit on average each time one of these extreme sentiment readings occur on the charts.
The red indicator on the chart is a simple volume based indicator which measures fear and greed in the market and is very powerful for picking market tops and bottoms. It’s calculated by taking the NYSE up volume and dividing it by the down volume. In short, when you see this indicator start to rise it tells us the majority of traders (the herd) are buying and we should start to look at taking a short position.
Let me show you how to find the trade using the market sentiment....
The NYSE advance/ decline line
Is the most easy to understand. How I use this is simple, when there are 1500+ stocks trading up on the day then the market is getting overbought meaning too many stocks have moved up in a short period of time and traders will most likely start taking profits or exit their positions. I also look at the intraday chart for topping patterns or resistance levels then wait for the other two indicators to confirm Selling Volume on the chart above and the put/call ratio before going short the market.
The last indicator I follow is the put/call ratio
This indicator can be a little tougher to use at times because when the market is trending down the ratio tends to fluctuate near the top or bottom of its range during up or down trends. In a down trend is stays near the top which the chart below shows.
When the broad market bounces and we see the put/call ratio drop into the lower band it’s telling me the majority of traders have finally become bullish. This tends to happen once a previous high is broken as it triggers short covering and breakout traders start to buy.
Trading Market Sentiment Conclusion:
All you need to use these indicators, focus on the 15 minute charts, trade only with trend, and take profits at 1%, 2% and keep a small position open for much larger gains.
It is critical that once you take partial profits once you reach a 1% gain then you must start moving your protective stop into the money to lock in a profit for the balance of the position. All three indicators need to reach the extreme levels at the same time for a trade to be triggered. I have seen the market trend in the extreme levels for several weeks continuing to move up day after day and you will get stuck in that situation if you jump the gun entering a trade before each indicator signals an extreme level.
Final thoughts, his strategy works just as well in a bull market but there are some minor changes required on each of the indicators. Also I use inter market analysis following the US Dollar, Gold, Bonds and the Volatility Index for other trading strategies which I incorporate using the market sentiment.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups checkout his service at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Share
In short, you must start looking at the market completely backwards. I focus on buying into heavy volume sell offs (panic) and selling position into heavy volume breakouts (greed). This was a very tough transition for me to make and its best to paper trade it for while until you are comfortable with buying into fear and selling into greed. It will feel completely wrong at the beginning but the profits speak for themselves!
The Four Charts I Follow Closely
The 4 main tools need to make money from trading against the herd. While this is only one of my trading strategies it is my favorite. I trade the ES futures contract and some sometimes the SDS and SSO exchange traded funds. This may seem basic at first glance but when you combine them you end up with a highly effective trading strategy.
SP500 - 5 Minute Chart
Here is a 5 minute chart of the SP500 showing where I went short. It is important to know that over the past 2 years the SP500 has provided a 1.25% profit on average each time one of these extreme sentiment readings occur on the charts.
The red indicator on the chart is a simple volume based indicator which measures fear and greed in the market and is very powerful for picking market tops and bottoms. It’s calculated by taking the NYSE up volume and dividing it by the down volume. In short, when you see this indicator start to rise it tells us the majority of traders (the herd) are buying and we should start to look at taking a short position.
Let me show you how to find the trade using the market sentiment....
The NYSE advance/ decline line
Is the most easy to understand. How I use this is simple, when there are 1500+ stocks trading up on the day then the market is getting overbought meaning too many stocks have moved up in a short period of time and traders will most likely start taking profits or exit their positions. I also look at the intraday chart for topping patterns or resistance levels then wait for the other two indicators to confirm Selling Volume on the chart above and the put/call ratio before going short the market.
The last indicator I follow is the put/call ratio
This indicator can be a little tougher to use at times because when the market is trending down the ratio tends to fluctuate near the top or bottom of its range during up or down trends. In a down trend is stays near the top which the chart below shows.
When the broad market bounces and we see the put/call ratio drop into the lower band it’s telling me the majority of traders have finally become bullish. This tends to happen once a previous high is broken as it triggers short covering and breakout traders start to buy.
Trading Market Sentiment Conclusion:
All you need to use these indicators, focus on the 15 minute charts, trade only with trend, and take profits at 1%, 2% and keep a small position open for much larger gains.
It is critical that once you take partial profits once you reach a 1% gain then you must start moving your protective stop into the money to lock in a profit for the balance of the position. All three indicators need to reach the extreme levels at the same time for a trade to be triggered. I have seen the market trend in the extreme levels for several weeks continuing to move up day after day and you will get stuck in that situation if you jump the gun entering a trade before each indicator signals an extreme level.
Final thoughts, his strategy works just as well in a bull market but there are some minor changes required on each of the indicators. Also I use inter market analysis following the US Dollar, Gold, Bonds and the Volatility Index for other trading strategies which I incorporate using the market sentiment.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's ETF Trade Alerts for Low Risk Setups checkout his service at The Gold And Oil Guy.com
Share
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
Welcome to our Launch of "Trend TV"
As a regular visitor to The Crude Oil Trader, you have been chosen to receive complimentary access to four educational trading videos that focus on Technical Analysis and Trend Trading:
VIDEO 1.) Basic Indicators to Analyze Markets
VIDEO 2.) Using Predicted High and Predicted Low to Trade Intraday
VIDEO 3.) Strategy Trading Using Next Day Predictive Highs and Lows
VIDEO 4.) Using "Differences" to Spot Shifts in Momentum
There is no charge as this is part of an educational program that we thought
you would find beneficial. Just Click Here for access to Trend TV.
Share
VIDEO 1.) Basic Indicators to Analyze Markets
VIDEO 2.) Using Predicted High and Predicted Low to Trade Intraday
VIDEO 3.) Strategy Trading Using Next Day Predictive Highs and Lows
VIDEO 4.) Using "Differences" to Spot Shifts in Momentum
There is no charge as this is part of an educational program that we thought
you would find beneficial. Just Click Here for access to Trend TV.
Share
Monday, October 12, 2009
ALERT: Weekly Trade Triangle Buy Signal For Crude Oil
Attention all MarketClub Members: Our Weekly Trade Triangle strategy flashed a buy signal on November crude oil this morning at 72.65.
Here's what You Get with Your MarketClub Membership
Friday, September 18, 2009
The Buy and Hold Myth.....Is Buy and Hold Back?
We have been thinking about one of the oldest myths about trading, "the buy and hold myth". Everyone has heard the buy and hold logic....but how about the other side of the argument? While this strategy has worked in certain markets at certain times, we do not believe we are in a time frame where this strategy is going to meet with a lot of success.
The world around us is changing rapidly and therefore it is important to have strategies that can change with this new regime.
In today’s video we are going to show you how the buy and hold strategy is flawed when you compare it to our “Trade Triangle” technology. I think you will be surprised at the results and how well you can do using this simple approach to markets.
There is no need to register for this video and of course you can watch it with our compliments. I highly recommend watching this video today, otherwise you risk missing out on what could be the move of the year.
Just Click Here to enjoy the video and please leave a comment to tell us what you think of the video and the buy and hold myth.
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