Conoco-Phillips Reports 80 Percent Decline In Profits

ConocoPhillips said Thursday its first quarter profit tumbled 80 percent from a year ago as sharply lower crude and natural gas prices walloped results at the nation's third largest oil company.

But the results easily beat Wall Street expectations and Conoco shares rose 3.6 percent, or $1.36, to $39.75. The Houston based company said net income for the January-March period amounted to $840 million, or 56 cents per share, versus $4.14 billion, or $2.62 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of 42 cents a share, on average. Revenue fell 44 percent to $30.7 billion from $54.9 billion a year ago.

ConocoPhillips was the first of the major oil companies to report first-quarter results, which as a whole are expected to be the worst in years as the global economic downturn saps demand for energy. After peaking around $150 in July, the price of crude tumbled....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Struggles At The $50 Level, Unemployment Numbers Weigh On Demand

June crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But higher unemployment numbers may weigh on demand and lower than expected numbers from UPS this morning look to weigh on the entire market.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Today's daily pivot point, our line in the sand is 48.48

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.18.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

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The June Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.97.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.70.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight [Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST.] due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The daily pivot point is 844.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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Crude Oil Closes Slightly Higher, Bears Still Have Technical Advantage Near Term

June crude oil closed up $0.35 at $48.90 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices are pausing after the big down day on Monday, and this pause is not bullish. Crude oil bears still have the near term technical advantage.

The June U.S. dollar index helped crude oil by closing down 45 points at 86.44 today, closing near the session low's. Bulls still have the slight near term technical advantage, but need to show fresh strength soon to keep it.

The U.S. stock indexes did not help crude oil's cause by closing mostly lower today and near their session lows. Some more banking worries today and bearish corporate earnings reports this week are keeping the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.




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Crude Oil Futures Increase Following U.S. Stock Market Gains, OPEC Prices Slip

"Crude Oil Futures Increase Following U.S. Stock Market Gains"
Crude oil futures rose for a second day as U.S. equities gained and the U.S. dollar dropped. Oil rebounded as the stock market advanced as a gauge of home prices unexpectedly improved and General Electric Co. led a rally in industrial companies. Prices dropped earlier on an Energy Department report that oil inventories rose 3.86 million barrels to 370.6 million, the highest since September 1990. “There are a large number of financial professionals trading oil who are paying more attention to the equity markets and the U.S. dollar, while ignoring the fundamentals of the oil market,” said Tim Evans....Complete Story

"OPEC's Oil Price Slips Below $48.50"
The price for oil produced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shed more than $1 Tuesday, settling at $48.49, the group announced Wednesday.
One barrel (158 liters) of OPEC crude oil was $1.10 lower on Tuesday than on the previous day. The price has dropped by $2.96 since last Friday. The Vienna based cartel calculates an average price based on 12 brands produced by its members....Complete Story

"Statoil’s Arctic Status Threatened as Exxon, Shell Make Bids"
StatoilHydro ASA may see its dominance eroded in Norway’s Arctic as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc bid in the country’s first frontier oil and natural gas licensing round for three years. Norway has offered 28 complete and partial blocks in the Barents Sea off its northern tip and 51 in the Norwegian Sea, which straddles the Arctic Circle. The permits will be awarded “sometime in the spring,” said Jon Evang, an Oil Ministry spokesman, without being more specific....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Falls On Inventory Gains

Crude oil falls as inventories increased sharply across the board. As of 10:40 EST crude oil is trading below the critical 48.50 level as institutional traders look to defend $45.00 this week. Next target is 1st support at $48.02.


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Crude Oil Lower As Earnings Reports Bring Down The Market's

June crude oil traded higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But has traded below 48.0 in pre market trading as financial's weigh on the overall markets.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Traders appear to be focused on the 48.50 50% retracement level as their line in the sand.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.43.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 48.02.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

10:30 AM ET. Apr 17..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 366.7M)

....Crude Oil Stocks(Net Change}(expected+2.5M;previous +5.6M)

....Gasoline Stocks(previous 216.5M)

....Gasoline Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-900K)

....Distillate Stocks(previous 139.6M)

....Distillate Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-1.2M)

....Refinery Usage(expected 81%;previous 80.4%)


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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Once again it appears the markets are allowing the financial's to take the lead and poor earnings reports this morning from Morgan Stanley are weighing on the market.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand, is 840.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 3.70 points. at 844.00 as of 6:05 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.94.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.61.


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This Week In Crude Oil

Click on image to enlarge.....

Crude Oil Closes Higher After Trading At Six Week Low

June crude oil closed up $0.18 at $48.69 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices hit a fresh six week low early on today and some near term chart damage has been inflicted this week. Crude oil bears have the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today and nearer their session high on a rebound from solid losses on Monday. Some positive comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner today helped the market. However, a slew of upcoming corporate earnings reports this week will likely keep the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.

June gold futures closed down $5.80 at $881.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today amid a rebound in the U.S. stock market today. The gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 16 points at 86.82 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 89.00.


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Crude Oil Below $45, SABIC's First Loss, Iran Supports OPEC Cut

"Nymex Crude Falls Below $45 Barrel On Economic Fears, Expiration"
Crude oil futures were down Tuesday, slipping below $45 a barrel on lingering concerns about the U.S. economy.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery was down $1.82, or 4%, at $44.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $43.83 a barrel. June Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.37 to $48.49 a barrel.

For the past month, oil prices have held up relatively well, hovering around or above the $50 a barrel mark despite domestic crude supplies swelling to 18 year highs. But crude sliced nearly a tenth off its value Monday, plunging with equity markets as investors worried about the health of U.S. banks, despite a series of better than expected quarterly results....Complete Story

"SABIC Drops After First Quarterly Loss Since 2001"
Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest chemicals maker by market value, dropped the most in five months in Riyadh trading after reporting a surprise quarterly loss on slumping demand for plastics and fertilizers.

Sabic fell 9.9 percent to 42 riyals, the biggest decline since Nov. 22. The first quarter net loss was 974 million riyals ($259.7 million) after booking 1.18 billion riyals in goodwill writedowns, the Riyadh based company said today in a statement. The loss is the company’s first since the last quarter of 2001 and misses analyst estimates of 1.02 billion riyals in profit.

The first simultaneous recession for six decades in the U.S., Japan and Germany forced Sabic to slash polyethylene and polypropylene prices and cut its workforce as demand weakened for plastics....Complete Story

"Iran Supports OPEC Output Cut Conditionally"
Iran said on Thursday that it will conditionally support OPEC output cut, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Iran's representative to OPEC Seyyed Mohammad-Ali Khatibi voiced the conditional support to some reporters on the sidelines of an oil gas show in Tehran, MENA said.

"The OPEC decision to cut its output at a meeting in May in Vienna depends on the market condition," Khatibi was quoted as saying, adding "if there is an oversupply of oil (in the market), the output cut will be considered."....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Trading Lower, Breaking Through Critical Levels

Crude oil is trading lower as it extends Monday's breakout to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.61

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 49.15.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 45.19.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

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4:30 PM ET. Apr 17...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +6.5M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -613K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +87K)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 79.9%)

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher due to short covering in the overnight trading session as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, but has now moved lower has we near the regular trading session.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.25.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.50 points. at 834.20 as of 5:51 AM CST. But has now sharply sold off [6+ points] before the opening of regular trading hours.

It had appeared that the overnight action set the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.48.


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