Renewed Dollar Strength Looks To Send Crude Oil Lower

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.85. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends this week's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 66.29 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 72.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.86
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.76

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 25% retracement level at 66.29

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.550 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, July needs to close above 4.721 or below 3.395 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.01
Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.39

First support is today's low crossing at 3.72
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.56

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday while extending this month's trading range. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above 81.97 or below 79.62 are needed to clear up near term direction in the market.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.97
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.69

First support is today's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 79.62

Natural Gas Falls, More Rigs For Baker Hughes, Sinopec In Iraq

"Natural Gas Falls as U.S. Inventories Build in Mild Weather"
Natural gas futures fell for a fifth day in New York as a government report tomorrow may show that weak demand, prompted by mild weather and the recession, is pushing U.S. stockpiles toward a record high. Gas inventories probably increased 101 billion cubic feet last week, based on the median of 15 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five year average increase for the week is 84 billion cubic feet. Storage levels rose to 2.557 trillion cubic feet.....Complete Story

"Is Rig Count About to Rebound? Scenarios for The Future"
Last week Baker Hughes reported that their rig count for active rigs in the United States increased by 23 rigs to 899 active rigs. While this count increased from the prior week, compared to a year ago, the rig count is down by over 1,000 rigs marking one of the worst downturns in the industry history. Our favorite chart shows the rig count for 2000-2009 compared to the rig count of 1973-1983. The similarities are stunning, but even more.....Complete Story

"Sinopec Buys Addax, Gains Reserves in Africa, Iraq’s Kurdistan"
China Petrochemical Corp. will gain reserves in Iraq’s Kurdistan and West Africa upon completing its C$8.3 billion ($7.2 billion) bid for Addax Petroleum Corp. The Chinese company, known as Sinopec Group, is the country’s second-biggest oil producer. It agreed to pay C$52.80 a share in cash for Addax, the Geneva-based company said in a statement yesterday. That’s 47 percent more than Addax’s closing price in Toronto on June 5.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Remains Below 20 Moving Average

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.87. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement of this spring's rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.78 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.17

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.87
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.78

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 38% retracement level at 62.25

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.948. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.02 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

The natural gas pivot point is 3.90 for Wednesday.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.95
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.02

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 3.83
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.55

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Are Gas Prices Going To Plunge?

Fox Business talks to John Kingston, global director of oil at Platts. Kingston weighs in on what he sees for the future in gasoline prices.

Lower Dollar Sends Crude Higher

Crude oil closed up $1.88 at $67.38 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high on a solid rebound from big losses Monday, and amid a sharply lower U.S. dollar today. Some chart damage was repaired today, but bulls have more work to do soon to suggest the June high can be taken out on the upside.

Trading Video:The #1 Predictor of Inflation or Deflation.

Natural gas closed down 4.9 cents at $4.022 today. Prices closed near mid range today. The key "outside markets" were bullish for natural gas futures today, as the U.S. stock indexes were firmer, and crude oil was solidly higher, while the U.S. dollar was sharply lower. Yet, natural gas was pressured any way, which is a bearish clue.

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Oil and Gas Rise on Dollar Weakness, OPEC Wants $80 a Barrel

"Oil, Gasoline Rise as Dollar Drop Boosts Appeal of Commodities"
Crude oil rose more than $1 a barrel and gasoline climbed for the first time in five days as a weaker dollar bolstered the appeal of commodity futures as an alternative investment. Oil climbed as the U.S. currency slipped the most in a month against the euro on speculation that the Federal Reserve will temper expectations for an interest rate increase this year. An Energy Department report tomorrow is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil supplies fell.....Complete Story

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"OPEC Would Like Oil at $80 a Barrel for Investments"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would like oil to reach a price level of $80 a barrel so that most investments in the industry can go ahead, OPEC President Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos said Tuesday. "We would like to reach the $80 per barrel, so that investment could be met," he said during a press conference after meeting with European Union officials. He said the current level of between $60 a barrel.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

"Japan May End $1.5 Billion Venezuela Loan on Seizures"
Japan may cancel a planned $1.5 billion loan for Venezuela’s El Palito and Puerto La Cruz oil refineries after the South American nation seized Japanese company assets, said a person familiar with the situation. The Japan Bank for International Cooperation, or JBIC, is reviewing loans for the upgrades after Venezuela took over Japanese iron and chemicals assets and fell behind on payments to oil service contractors, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the review isn’t public.....Complete Story

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Bears Seem To Have The Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was lower in overnight trading as it extends Monday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If crude oil extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement of this spring's rally crossing at 62.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.91 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.05

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 69.54
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.91

First support is the overnight low crossing at 66.37
Second support is the 38% retracement level at 62.25

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.938 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.860
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.550

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Crude Oil Falls, Lower Open Possible On Tuesday

Crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday and closed below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.59 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the 25% retracement level of this spring's rally crossing at 65.56 is the next downside target. Closes above last Friday's high crossing at 72.30 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.60
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 72.30

First support is today's low crossing at 66.25
Second support is the 25% retracement level at 65.56

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Natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If July extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.550 is the next downside target. From a broad perspective, July needs to close above 4.721 or below 3.395 to confirm a breakout of this spring's trading range and point the direction of the next trending move.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is today's low crossing at 3.860
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.550

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Oil and Gas Tumble on World Bank Report, More Rigs For Petrobras?

"Oil, Gasoline Tumble as World Bank Predicts a Deeper Recession"
Crude oil fell more than $2 and gasoline tumbled after the World Bank said the global recession will be deeper than forecast, bolstering concern that fuel consumption will remain depressed. Oil dropped as much as 4.7 percent after the bank projected the global economy will contract 2.9 percent this year, more than its previously forecast decrease of 1.7 percent. Prices also declined as the dollar strengthened, reducing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. “We’re lower because reality is asserting itself,”.....Complete Story

Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles

"Petrobras to Reel in More Rigs for Offshore Santos Basin"
Brazilian state-run energy giant Petrobras (PBR) expects to bring up to four more drilling rigs to a prospect in the offshore Santos Basin in the second half of the year. The ultra-deepwater rigs will be used to "attack" areas in the subsalt region in the Santos Basin, Petrobras' Mario Carminatti told the local Estado news agency. The Santos Basin is home to the Tupi field, the Western Hemisphere's largest oil discovery in more than 30 years.....Complete Story

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"Oil’s Channel Break May Signal End to Rally"
Oil prices moved out of a so called ascending channel that started in April, signaling crude’s rally may falter. Crude oil for July delivery fell 2.6 percent to $69.55 a barrel on June 19, the biggest drop for the front-month contract in two weeks. It was the first close outside a channel that’s bounded intraday highs and lows during the last two months, Zug, Switzerland-based consultant Petromatrix GmbH said today. “The ascending channel was invalidated for the first time and this clearly need to be taken as a negative,” Petromatrix managing director Olivier Jakob said in a note to clients.....Complete Story

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Crude Oil Bears Seem To Have Near Term Advantage

Crude oil was lower overnight and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.66. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 68.66 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger degree decline into the end of June.

If July resumes this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.

Crude oil pivot point for Monday is 70.76

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 70.75
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.23

First support is the overnight low crossing at 67.89
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 64.95

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.926 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

If July renews this month's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.07

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.387
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.990
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.926