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Mexico's Fading Oil Output Squeezes Exports, Spending

Mexico's oil output is falling faster than expected, increasing the chance that the country will lose its status as a major oil exporter in coming years and face a worsening budget shortfall. Output at state owned oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos's offshore field Cantarell, once the world's second largest oil field, has plunged to 500,000 barrels a day from its peak of 2.1 million in 2005. "I don't recall seeing anything in the industry as dramatic as Cantarell," says Mark Thurber, assistant director for research at the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.....Read the entire article

Total CEO Says Oil Prices Could Hit $145 by 2014

Total's Chief Executive Christophe de Margerie foresees the price per barrel of crude oil surpassing $145 in the near future, reports Dow Jones Newswires. In an interview with Le Parisien published Friday, the head of the French oil major said, "We risk to face a new oil crisis at a time when demand will surpass supply in 2014/15."

"It is urgent that we invest," Margerie added. Margerie revealed that Total has bank accounts in "tax havens," and should a decision be made at an international level, the company would be prepared to withdraw the money, Dow Jones reported.

From the staff at Rigzone

Crude Oil Is Set for Weekly Gain on Dollar, China’s Demand

Crude oil rose for a fifth day as the dollar fell toward a nine month low and industrial production in China, the world’s second biggest energy user, grew at a faster pace than forecast. Oil is poised for its first weekly gain in three after the dollar reached its lowest level since Dec. 18 against the euro for a second day as China’s factory output gained and new loans exceeded analyst expectations, reducing demand for the U.S. currency as a refuge. A weaker dollar increases demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. “The expectation is that China is on a strong growth path,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. “Also supportive of oil prices was the fact that the U.S. dollar has remained fairly soft.” Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 41 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $72.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.26 a barrel at 11:43 a.m. Singapore time. Prices have gained 6.3 percent this week and climbed 62 percent this year.....Read the entire article

Conoco Says Australia Could Be Biggest LNG Exporter

Australia could become the world's biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, by 2020, the head of ConocoPhillips' (COP) Australian unit said Thursday. The comments came as Chevron Corp. (CVX) said it has signed three binding sales agreements to supply nearly three million tons a year of LNG from the proposed Gorgon project in Western Australia state to Japanese and Korean energy companies. ConocoPhillips Australia President Joseph Marushack said that a final investment decision is still expected to be made for its massive Gladstone LNG joint venture in Queensland state with Origin Energy Ltd. (ORG.AU) by the end of 2010, with first gas to be shipped in 2014.....Read the entire article

Crude Remains Supported as IEA Raised Demand Forecasts

Crude oil price remains strong in European morning. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast on oil demand, as indicated in the September report. The October contract hovers around 72 as investors await further details on US inventories. As driven by stronger than expected US demand and rapid growth in China, the IEA revised up its demand forecasts for 2009 and 2010, to 84.4M bpd and 85.7 M bpd respectively. There were compared with June's projections of 83.94 M bpd for 2009 and 85.25M bpd for 2010. According to the agency, 'there is growing evidence that the global economy may be finally stabilizing, with industrial destocking coming to an end, coupled with the effects of large scale government intervention... Oil demand in US, China and other Asia appears to be running stronger than preliminary estimates suggested'.....Read the entire article

OPEC Maintains Oil Quotas as IEA Raises Global Demand Forecast

OPEC said it will keep oil production quotas unchanged, banking on a recovery in the world economy to maintain prices near today’s $72 a barrel as the International Energy Agency raised its global demand forecast. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to maintain total production quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day and will urge members to adhere to targets, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said. The IEA raised its global oil demand estimate for next year for a second month, citing growth in Chinese consumption and stronger-than-expected U.S. oil use. “Holding production was the prudent thing to do,” Jason Schenker, president of Texas-based consultants Prestige Economics LLC, said in an.....Read the entire article

How to Trade Gold, Natural Gas & Crude Oil ETF Funds

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy

How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold – We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil & gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.

How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart
How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.

Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance.

To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Today for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.


How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.

Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.


How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart
USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.


How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart
Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.


How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.

The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.

The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.


How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:
Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETF’s and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.

I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues??? Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues?? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples money.

If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's free weekly trading reports visit The Gold and Oil Guy to join his newsletter.

Stimulus Money To Fund Propane Fueling Stations

The U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday awarded $12.9 million in two stimulus grants to CleanFUEL USA, a leader in propane engine technology and alternative fuel infrastructure solutions. The funds will be used to establish more than 100 state of the art liquid propane (Autogas) refueling stations in major U.S. cities in coordination with CleanFUEL USA partners, including ConocoPhillips. Other supporting partners include the Texas State Technical College, the Central Texas Clean Cities Coalition, Rush Truck Centers, 16 additional area Clean Cities Coalitions and the Propane Education and Research Council. The propane network will provide retail consumers as well as municipal, state and private fleets greater access to a cost effective and clean-burning alternative transportation fuel.....Read the entire article

Oil Rises Above $72 as Dollar Weakens to Lowest Level This Year

Crude oil rose above $72 a barrel as the dollar dropped to the lowest level against the euro this year before OPEC’s scheduled announcement today that its members will maintain output targets. Oil added to yesterday’s gain of 4.5 percent in New York as the falling U.S. currency spurred investors’ demand for dollar priced assets to hedge against inflation. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should maintain existing output quotas and improve compliance when it meets, the group’s production-monitoring committee recommended late yesterday. “The oil market is going to remain focused on the dollar and what other commodities do,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFG Best, a Chicago based brokerage. “We are all expecting OPEC to celebrate where prices are and pay lip service to better compliance in the future”.....Read the entire article