The steepest rally in natural gas prices since 2006 is coming to an end as the 400 salt caverns, depleted oil fields and aquifers used to store the fuel in the U.S. reach capacity for the first time. Stockpiles may surpass the record of 3.545 trillion cubic feet by as much as 350 billion cubic feet this fall, Energy Department estimates show. Gulf South Pipeline Co. says its fields in Louisiana and Mississippi are so full that customers will have to pay penalties for exceeding their limits. With no place to go, producers will be forced to dump excess fuel on the market.
The worst economic slump since the 1930s will cut demand from chemical plants to carmakers to households by 2.4 percent this year, according to government estimates. The November futures contract will drop about 19 percent to near $4 per million British thermal units, said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania.....Read the entire article
Monday, September 28, 2009
USO, UNG, SPY Trading Charts From The Gold and Oil Guy
The market continues to whipsaw traders out of positions as volatility rises. I have put together a few charts to show you where USO and UNG are trading along with the SPX (SP500 index).
USO Crude Oil Trading Fund
Crude oil started to bleed lower last week as the price sliced through the multi month support trend line. Volume shot up as stop orders get triggered on the way down. We finally have a move outside of the pennant formation that has been in place for several months. Now we can start looking for a low risk setup for trading crude oil again.
UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
Natural gas has really come back to life. I mentioned on September 2nd that natural gas (UNG) looked like a buy between $9 – $9.50 and it has now rallied 25% since that point. But stepping back and looking at the chart we can see resistance is hovering over head between the $12 – $12.25.
I may send out a setup for a short play if we get one but I feel the heavy sell off in August was the final wave down, flushing out traders. Speculative traders seem to have moved into natural gas and I think they will continue to buy it for some time. Pullbacks will be sharp but most likely followed with more buying as we enter the cooler months of the year.
SPX Index Trading
I thought that I would show a quick picture of the SPX because it shows the psychology of traders and how it repeats it’s self over and over. The black and green waves are virtually the same patterns.
I feel as though the market is ready for a larger pullback than what we had in June/July but my focus will be to buy in the oversold dips and lighten my positions in overbought conditions (scaling in and out of positions) until the trend confirms it has reversed.
My Market Trading Conclusion:
Gold stocks are pulling back and precious metals continue to move with the overall market action. I do feel that gold and silver will break this relationship and start to move higher in the coming months but until that happens I remain cautious with my positions tightening my stops.
Crude oil is starting to come alive and I am now looking for some low risk setups for energy related funds. Last week’s technical breakdown could provide us with a big move in the coming months.
Natural Gas continues to hold up but is now trading near resistance. Depending how many spec traders there are still lingering around (as most lost their shirts in the recent months), will dictate how much higher natural gas will move. The 25-30% rally in the past month has been very powerful and this could be just the beginning. I am now waiting for another setup that could be a long or a short trade depending on what happens next.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's Bi-Weekly Trading Reports via email please visit The Gold and Oil Guy
USO Crude Oil Trading Fund
Crude oil started to bleed lower last week as the price sliced through the multi month support trend line. Volume shot up as stop orders get triggered on the way down. We finally have a move outside of the pennant formation that has been in place for several months. Now we can start looking for a low risk setup for trading crude oil again.
UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund
Natural gas has really come back to life. I mentioned on September 2nd that natural gas (UNG) looked like a buy between $9 – $9.50 and it has now rallied 25% since that point. But stepping back and looking at the chart we can see resistance is hovering over head between the $12 – $12.25.
I may send out a setup for a short play if we get one but I feel the heavy sell off in August was the final wave down, flushing out traders. Speculative traders seem to have moved into natural gas and I think they will continue to buy it for some time. Pullbacks will be sharp but most likely followed with more buying as we enter the cooler months of the year.
SPX Index Trading
I thought that I would show a quick picture of the SPX because it shows the psychology of traders and how it repeats it’s self over and over. The black and green waves are virtually the same patterns.
I feel as though the market is ready for a larger pullback than what we had in June/July but my focus will be to buy in the oversold dips and lighten my positions in overbought conditions (scaling in and out of positions) until the trend confirms it has reversed.
My Market Trading Conclusion:
Gold stocks are pulling back and precious metals continue to move with the overall market action. I do feel that gold and silver will break this relationship and start to move higher in the coming months but until that happens I remain cautious with my positions tightening my stops.
Crude oil is starting to come alive and I am now looking for some low risk setups for energy related funds. Last week’s technical breakdown could provide us with a big move in the coming months.
Natural Gas continues to hold up but is now trading near resistance. Depending how many spec traders there are still lingering around (as most lost their shirts in the recent months), will dictate how much higher natural gas will move. The 25-30% rally in the past month has been very powerful and this could be just the beginning. I am now waiting for another setup that could be a long or a short trade depending on what happens next.
If you would like to get Chris Vermeulen's Bi-Weekly Trading Reports via email please visit The Gold and Oil Guy
New Video: Straight Lines Lead Straight to Profits in Crude Oil
In this new short video we are going to share with you one of the simplest and most powerful technical tools of all time.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to do this and you don’t have to have a PhD in mathematics either. If you’re not already using this tool, I highly recommend that you watch this video.
As always, our videos are available to view without charge and without registration. All we ask is that you give us your feedback on our blog.
Just Click Here to watch "Straight Lines Lead Straight to Profits in Crude Oil"
If you enjoy this video, share it with your friends. I am sure they will find it different and at the same time educational.
You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to do this and you don’t have to have a PhD in mathematics either. If you’re not already using this tool, I highly recommend that you watch this video.
As always, our videos are available to view without charge and without registration. All we ask is that you give us your feedback on our blog.
Just Click Here to watch "Straight Lines Lead Straight to Profits in Crude Oil"
If you enjoy this video, share it with your friends. I am sure they will find it different and at the same time educational.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
New Video: Gold, It’s All Falling Into Place
You may have watched our earlier video on the gold cycles and how important they are in this particular market, at this particular time. Today’s action is indicative of the cycle that we were talking about in the video as it’s pushing gold prices down into a cyclic time window.
I wanted to follow up with this new short video to show you where we believe there should be some good levels to get into a long gold position. The energy fields we’ve discussed before in gold and other markets are still very much intact and are getting wound up for the big move we’ll see later this year.
There is no need to register to watch this video and you can watch it with our compliments.
Just Click Here to watch the "Gold, It's Falling Into Place" video
If you enjoy this follow up, share it with your friends. We am sure they will find our point of view both different and at the same time educational. Please feel free to leave a comment about your view on gold.
I wanted to follow up with this new short video to show you where we believe there should be some good levels to get into a long gold position. The energy fields we’ve discussed before in gold and other markets are still very much intact and are getting wound up for the big move we’ll see later this year.
There is no need to register to watch this video and you can watch it with our compliments.
Just Click Here to watch the "Gold, It's Falling Into Place" video
If you enjoy this follow up, share it with your friends. We am sure they will find our point of view both different and at the same time educational. Please feel free to leave a comment about your view on gold.
U.S. Gas Fund May Shrink With CFTC Rules
U.S. Natural Gas Fund, the largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, may be forced to shrink if U.S. regulators tighten limits on energy speculation, said John Hyland, the fund’s chief investment officer. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission may cap energy investments amid concern speculators contributed to record high commodity prices last year. New limits may force the fund to reduce shares, Hyland said in a Bloomberg television interview.
“The problem there is the shareholders are in UNG because they want the natural gas exposure,” Hyland said. The $4 billion fund is an “easy target” for politicians who need a “villain” to blame for high energy prices, he said. Interest in the fund boomed this year. Shares outstanding grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million, pushing the ETF’s natural gas holdings to a July peak equal to 20 percent of all the gas consumed in the U.S. last year..... Read the entire article
“The problem there is the shareholders are in UNG because they want the natural gas exposure,” Hyland said. The $4 billion fund is an “easy target” for politicians who need a “villain” to blame for high energy prices, he said. Interest in the fund boomed this year. Shares outstanding grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million, pushing the ETF’s natural gas holdings to a July peak equal to 20 percent of all the gas consumed in the U.S. last year..... Read the entire article
New Video: The Dollar Makes a Major Low in Q4.......of 2011!
The dollar will hit a major low in Q4 of 2011. Watch this short video and see how we came up with this bold forecast.
The move is already underway and the lows are in place, however, it is not too late to get into this market and take advantage of what we believe will be a major move to the upside for the euro.
There is no need to register to watch this video and you can watch it with our compliments.
Just Click Here to watch the video!
If you enjoy the video, which I am sure you will find eye-opening, please feel free to leave a comment and share your feelings regarding the US dollar.
The move is already underway and the lows are in place, however, it is not too late to get into this market and take advantage of what we believe will be a major move to the upside for the euro.
There is no need to register to watch this video and you can watch it with our compliments.
Just Click Here to watch the video!
If you enjoy the video, which I am sure you will find eye-opening, please feel free to leave a comment and share your feelings regarding the US dollar.
Oil Rises for Second Day on Recovery Outlook, Iran Tensions
Crude oil rose for a second day on speculation the global economy’s gradual recovery will increase demand for fuel and energy. A Conference Board report tomorrow in the U.S., the world’s largest oil user, may show consumer confidence is at its highest in a year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Prices also rose after Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil producer, conducted missile tests days before meeting with western officials over a previously secret nuclear facility.
Crude oil for November delivery gained as much as 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $66.49 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $66.39 at 8:09 a.m. in Sydney. The contract rose 13 cents to $66.02 on Sept. 25, trimming its loss for the week to 8.9 percent. Prices climbed from $65.05, an eight week low, after U.S. President Barack Obama said a new nuclear plant Iran is building shows the Islamist nation is.....Read the entire article
Crude oil for November delivery gained as much as 47 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $66.49 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $66.39 at 8:09 a.m. in Sydney. The contract rose 13 cents to $66.02 on Sept. 25, trimming its loss for the week to 8.9 percent. Prices climbed from $65.05, an eight week low, after U.S. President Barack Obama said a new nuclear plant Iran is building shows the Islamist nation is.....Read the entire article
Crude Oil Closes Higher, Still Bearish Signals Point to Lower Prices
Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. If November extends this week's breakout below trading range support crossing at 67.66, July's low crossing at 61.38 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.27
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.16
First support is today's low crossing at 65.05
Second support is July's low crossing at 61.38
Just click here to get 10 Trading Lessons FREE!
Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.260 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.04
Second resistance the 38% retracement level at 4.08
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.26
Just click here for 4 FREE Videos for INO TV!
The December Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.71. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.22
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 75.73
The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. If November extends this week's breakout below trading range support crossing at 67.66, July's low crossing at 61.38 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 70.27
Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 73.16
First support is today's low crossing at 65.05
Second support is July's low crossing at 61.38
Just click here to get 10 Trading Lessons FREE!
Natural gas closed higher on Friday as it extends this month's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If October extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.082 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.260 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 4.04
Second resistance the 38% retracement level at 4.08
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.66
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.26
Just click here for 4 FREE Videos for INO TV!
The December Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.71. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If December extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.33
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.40
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.22
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 75.73
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Serious Near Term Chart Damage Inflicted on Crude Oil
Crude oil closed down $3.05 at $65.92 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low again today and hit a fresh nine week low. Serious near term chart damage was inflicted today as prices saw a big and bearish downside "breakout" from the recent trading range at higher price levels. Crude bears now have the near term technical advantage.
Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today
Natural gas closed up 14.0 cents at $4.894 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a fresh six week high. Prices are in a two week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls gained upside technical momentum today, but have more work to do to suggest prices can continue to trend higher.
What are you waiting for, get 10 Trading Lessons FREE
The U.S. dollar index closed up 80 points at 77.09 today. Prices closed near the session high today on a short covering in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.00.
A Good Trading Education = a Good Trader = Good Profits….Watch INO TV
Natural Gas Advances in New York on Signs of Rebound in Demand
Natural gas futures rose in New York for the third straight day amid speculation that a strengthening economy and colder U.S. weather will increase demand and begin to draw down near record high inventories. A government report today showed an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims, a sign the economy is pulling out of the recession. Demand for gas starts to rise in November as temperatures fall.
“The question is how hard are we going to hit storage?” said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities research at Credit Suisse Securities USA in Houston. The market has priced in record high storage and is now focused on the prospect that a cold U.S. winter will lead to inventory draw downs, she said. Natural gas for October delivery rose 9.5 cents, or 2.5 percent, to close at $3.955 per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The fuel was trading at $3.774 before the supply report was released at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.....Read the entire article
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