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We are already in the “silly season” and what we mean by that is after December 15 most traders are not serious about the markets and they’re not committed to any large positions for the balance of the year.
We’ve had a number requests to do a video on gold, so here it is. As you will see in the video, gold has fallen back to an area that should provide support, however it will remain choppy and thinly traded for the balance of the year.
We strongly recommend that if you’re not in gold, to wait until we see more interest and activity coming into 2010.
Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know where you think Gold is headed.
Crude oil closed steady at $72.66 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Gains were limited by a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. stock indexes. Crude prices are still in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week's low of $68.59.
Natural gas closed up 30.5 cents at $5.767 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh six week high. A bullish weekly storage report boosted nat gas today, along with recent cold U.S. weather and more in the forecast. Bulls have gained solid upside near term technical momentum recently. Prices are in a steep two week old uptrend on the daily bar chart.
Unleaded gasoline (RBOB) closed down 225 points at $1.8514 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.9500.
The U.S. Dollar index closed up 76 points at 78.10 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh three month high today. The bulls have recently gained good upside near term technical momentum to suggest that a near term low is in place.
We have made a number of videos on the dollar index and in our latest video we show you some of the aspects we outlined in our previous video that have come to pass.
The positive divergences on the MACD indicator which we discussed last time have kicked in and pushed the dollar index higher. Longer term major trend for the dollar index continues to be negative. In this short video you’ll see what the market is doing now and what we expect it to do in the future.
Just click here to watch the video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think of the video and the direction of the dollar.
Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil dropped as much as 2 percent as the dollar rose to a three month high against the European currency and U.S. equities declined. Futures are 12 percent below the year’s high of $82 a barrel reached Oct. 21. U.S. oil supplies are 6.4 percent above the five year average, the Energy Department said yesterday.
“The dollar’s stronger, and that’s for the most part the big thing here,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks & Opinions LLC in Houston. Crude oil for January delivery fell 70 cents, or 1 percent, to $71.96 a barrel at 1:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, futures touched $71.21 a barrel. Oil has risen 61 percent this year. The dollar strengthened to $1.4329 per euro at 1:51 p.m. in New York from $1.4531 yesterday. Earlier it touched $1.4305, the highest since Sept. 7......Read the entire article.
The crude oil market continues to soften and is now close to some important levels that we think we should look at. In our new video we look at what is happening in this market right now and what we expect to happen in the future.
As we have indicated in our earlier posts, we are now in the official “silly season” for trading. What we mean by that is the markets will be very thin, choppy and can be moved by a relatively small amount of money.
Just click here to watch the new video and as always our videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you are thinking about the direction of crude oil.
Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's short covering rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 71.80. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.49 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If January resumes the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16 is the next downside target.
Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 72.27
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 73.55 Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 74.49
First support is Monday's low crossing at 68.59 Second support is the 87% retracement level of this fall's rally crossing at 68.16
Natural gas was higher overnight and is challenging the 62% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.565. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If January extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.993 would temper the near term bullish outlook in the market.
Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.484
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.569 Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at 5.807
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.188 Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.993
The U.S. Dollar was sharply higher overnight as it extends this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that additional gains are possible near term.
If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 78.16. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 76.82. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.03.
Crude oil's recovery from 68.58 might still be in progress for 38.2% retracement of 82.0 to 68.58 at 73.71 and possibly above. But after all, we'd expected upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement at 76.87 and bring fall resumption. Below 68.58 will target 65.05 key support next.
In the bigger picture, we're favoring the case that medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 82.0 with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. The break of medium term trend line support last week affirms this case and should pave the way to 58.32 cluster support (50% retracement of 33.2 to 82 at 57.60) for confirmation. As noted before, rise from 33.2 is treated as part of the correction pattern that started at 147.27. Firmed break of 58.32 support will argue that the down trend from 147.27 might be resuming for another low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 79.04 resistance is needed to invalidate this view, otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Nymex Natural Gas (NG)
Intraday bias in Natural gas remains on the upside with 5.37 minor support intact and current rise is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 2.409 to 5.318 from 4.157 at 5.955 next. On the downside, below 5.37 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 5.221). Nevertheless, downside should be contained above 4.837 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 resumes as expected after consolidations from 5.318 completed. Current rally should now be targeting 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. Break of 4.432 support is needed to indicate that natural gas has topped. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Crude oil fell for the first time in three days as the dollar strengthened against the euro, limiting the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge. Crude gained as the dollar rose to a three month high against the euro as Greece’s latest debt downgrade fanned concern that spiralling national debts may hamper the global economic recovery. The U.S. currency also gained after the Federal Reserve said yesterday the economy is strengthening and the deterioration in the labor market is abating.
“It is the dollar mainly because even though the Fed kept interest rates unchanged they did admit things are stabilizing in the U.S. economy,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London. “Sentiment in the dollar is turning positive.” Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as $1.01, or 1.4 percent, to $71.65 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $72.05 a barrel at 11:35 a.m. London time. Yesterday, the contract added $1.97 to $72.66 in New York, the biggest gain in a month, after the Energy Department said U.S. crude inventories declined to the lowest since the week ended Jan. 9. Prices have gained 61 percent this year.....Read the entire article.
It’s been a great week so far. Stocks and commodities are moving as expected from my weekend trading report. I like to see the market unfold in a calm collected manner.
The US dollar has made a nice move in the past couple weeks. Although it has broken out of its down channel I think there is a lot of short covering going on making this bounce more powerful than others. Also it is important to note that it is near resistance which could dampen things around the $77-77.5 level. If the dollar heads back down I expect gold to start making a move back up which it started to do Wednesday.
Below are my thoughts and charts about what I think is unfolding for both stocks and commodities.
DIA – Dow Jones Index Fund The DIA fund has performed just the way I thought it would. Push to a new high then sell down. Generally I would expect this move down to test my support level or trade near that level, but because we are heading into the holiday season and volume is light the market has a natural tendency to drift higher. I’m sure this is why it’s still trading near the high.
This new yearly high was enough to suck in breakout traders and only time will tell if they get follow through or get shaken out of this trade also. Oh, the joys of buying a breakout in an over bought market condition.
GLD – Gold Exchange Traded Fund Gold broke down sharply from its trend channel and has settled into a support zone. Wednesday we saw a nice bounce but the question is, is this a rally or a sucker’s bounce? I’ve found the best setups and moves occur after an ABC retrace. The black lines on the chart show exactly that type of price action. These retraces shake out most short term traders before starting a new rally. There is a thin dotted blue line showing a possible resistance trend line which would need to be broken after the ABC retrace pattern has formed if we want a low risk setup with a sizable win/loss ratio.
SLV – Silver ETF Trading Fund Silver is in the same boat as its big sister (Yellow Gold). We just need to wait for a high probability setup to present its self before putting any of our hard earned money to work.
USO – Crude Oil Fund USO has provided some great short term gains for anyone who used my analysis from my Sunday night report. The quote and chart below covers my thoughts for USO.
Sunday night report: “Oil broke down out of its bull flag last week and is currently testing both trend line support and horizontal support levels. We could see a short term bounce here to the $37, 38 or 40 levels. Taking money off the table at each resistance level and raising your stop is an important money management strategy I use for this type of play.”
UNG – Natural Gas Trading Fund Natural gas is still very much a speculative play as everyone thinks they will make huge money from this commodity.
This means two things in my opinion: 1. It’s still headed lower 2. After rallies the sellers jump back in.
UNG is trading near resistance and it could provide a great shorting opportunity in the coming days.
ETF Trading Conclusion: Although it’s been a quite week in the market, I have really enjoyed it. Not sure if it is related to everything unfolding in a controlled manner or the holiday season nearing, or maybe both?
November and December have been quiet for our ETFs but I know we are on the verge of either a large move up or down in the coming weeks. Let’s watch the market and funds unfold and see if we can get another trade or two in before year end.
