Crude Oil Continues Slide in Friday's Session, Here's Todays Numbers

Crude oil was lower overnight and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 79.03 as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.03 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January.

Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand 79.56

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.31
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 77.41

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Natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If February renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.739 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 5.625

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.739
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.785

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.46
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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Gold Moves Higher on Consolidation, Signals Remain Bearish

Gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1116.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off December's low, the reaction high crossing at 1170.20 is the next upside target.

Thursday evenings pivot point is 1131.40

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1163.00
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1170.20

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1118.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1116.90

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Crude Oil Bulls Forced to Defend 78.83 on Friday

Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January. If February renews this winter's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008 decline crossing at 84.82 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.40
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37

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Natural gas closed lower on Thursday ending a two day short covering bounce off Tuesday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a pause in this month's decline is possible.

Closes above today's high crossing at 5.804 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.804
Second resistance is last week's high crossing at 6.108

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

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The U.S. Dollar closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.54
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.85

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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Oil Falls After U.S. Reports Drop in Retail Sales, Higher Jobless Claims

Crude oil fluctuated as U.S. retail sales unexpectedly weakened and jobless claims rose, indicating that the economy will be slow to recover. Oil extended its longest decline in a month as sales at U.S. retailers slipped 0.3 percent in December, after a 1.8 percent jump in November, according to the Commerce Department in Washington. Weekly jobless claims climbed 2.5 percent, the most in five weeks, the Labor Department said. “It’s getting more and more difficult to maintain prices at around $80, though last week it seemed like it was going to be the floor,” said Michael Fitzpatrick, vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. Prices are likely to trade in a $70 to $80 range without “incontrovertible signs that the economy is improving.”

Crude oil for February delivery fell 17 cents to $79.48 a barrel at 12:16 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude prices have more than doubled in the past year, reaching a 15- month high of $83.95 on Jan. 11. Oil fell as much as 0.9 percent and rose as much as 0.9 percent today. Oil settled below $80 a barrel yesterday for the first time this year, after a U.S. government report showed the country’s crude and fuel inventories increased last week. Crude has declined 5.3 percent from the Jan. 11 high.

February crude oil options expiration at the end of the trading day is making futures volatile, analysts said.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Futures Trading CL – Daily Chart

Oil has pulled back the past few days and is now trading near a support level. I feel it is over sold and could bounce the second half of this week and I will keep my eye on it for members.



Chris Vermeulen "The Gold and Oil Guy"




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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

With 81.98 minor resistance intact, crude oil's correction from 83.95 might still extend further for 38.2% retracement of 68.59 to 83.95 at 78.08 and below. But downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement at 74.46 and bring rally resumption. Above 81.98 will flip intraday bias back to the upside. Further break of 83.95 will target upper trend line resistance at 87/88 level again.

In the bigger picture, the break of 82.0 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's a correction to fall from 147.27. Hence, we'd continue to look for reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. However, break of 68.59 support is still needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas drew strong support from mentioned 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.108 at 5.363 and rebounds strongly. At this point, intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 5.850 minor resistance will indicate that pull back from 6.108 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a retest on 6.108 resistance. On the downside, however, below 5.354 will bring fall resumption towards 61.8% retracement at 4.902 instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

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Crude Oil Struggles Against Demand Concern on Weak Retail Numbers

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83 would open the door for a larger degree decline during January.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 79.56

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.40
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 83.95

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.83
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 78.37

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off Tuesday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.746 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market. If February renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 5.650

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.746
Second resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 5.785

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 5.354
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.314

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of UNG

The U.S. Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.

If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.56
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.86

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 76.74
Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 76.66

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Good Trading,
Ray C. Parrish
President/CEO The Crude Oil Trader

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Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




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