Trade ideas, analysis and low risk set ups for commodities, Bitcoin, gold, silver, coffee, the indexes, options and your retirement. We'll help you keep your emotions out of your trading.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday
Break of 75.04 resistance argues that a short term bottom is formed at 72.43 on bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside and stronger rebound should be seen towards 38.2% retracement of 83.95 to 72.43 at 76.83 first. On the downside, though, a break below 72.43 will indicate that fall from 83.95 has resumed for 68.59 key support.
In the bigger picture, the case of medium term reversal continued to build up with fall from 83.95 extended. As noted before, whole medium term rise from 33.2 is viewed as a correction to fall from 147.27 only. Break of trend line support (now at 71/72) level will be the first signal that such rise has completed. Further break of 68.59 will support will confirm this bearish case and will target a retest on 33.2 low as correction down trend from 147.27 resumes. On the upside, though, in case of another rise, crude oil we'd continue to look of reversal signal as crude oil approaches 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.
Get Started Trading Crude Oil Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons
Share
Labels:
Crude Oil,
Oil N' Gold,
psychological,
retracement,
Trend
Monday, February 1, 2010
Crude Oil Rises for a Second Day on Increase in U.S. Manufacturing
Crude oil rose for a second day in New York after manufacturing in the U.S. increased at the fastest pace since August 2004, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country may gain.
Oil advanced the most in four weeks yesterday after the Institute for Supply Management’s factory index climbed to a higher than anticipated 58.4 in January, from December’s 54.9. European manufacturing also increased as companies raised output to meet reviving global demand, a separate report showed. Energy Department data tomorrow may show a drop in U.S. distillate fuel inventories.
“We can see that manufacturing is improving,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. “We now want to see that number backed up with good fundamentals in the inventory data.”
Crude oil for March delivery gained as much as $1.01, or 1.4 percent, to $75.44 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.83 at 11:59 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 2.1 percent to settle at $74.43, the biggest one day increase since Jan. 4.
The U.S. manufacturing figure exceeded the median forecast of 55.5 from 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.
European companies raised production in January as a global economic recovery spurred exports. An index of manufacturing in the 16 nation euro region climbed to 52.4 from 51.6 in December, London based Markit Economics said yesterday. Asian shares climbed, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index up the most in more than two weeks.....Read the entire article.
Check out the new "Trend TV"
Share
Labels:
Bloomberg,
Crude Oil,
distillate,
Energy Department
New Video: Oil May Have Seen Short Term Bottom
Crude prices may have seen a short term bottom and keep an eye on indium as the metal has potential for sky high prices, says John Licata, chief investment strategist at Blue Phoenix. He speaks to Bill Evans of Westpac, Kumar Palghat of Kapstream Capital and CNBC's Karen Tso.
Crude Oil High Range Close Brings Out The Over Confident Bulls
Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off January's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Crude oil Pivot point for Monday evening is 74.16
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.23
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.47
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO
Natural gas closed higher on Monday as it rebounds off the 62% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 5.114. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.555 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target.
Natural gas pivot point for Monday evening is 5.377
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.434
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.555
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG
The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Monday after testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 79.71. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways prices are possible near term.
If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010 decline crossing at 81.32
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.06
Get Started Trading Energy Stocks Today....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons
Share
Labels:
Crude Oil,
downside target,
Natural Gas,
Stochastics,
U.S. Dollar
New Video: Hot Stocks in The Energy Sector
Stocks in the sector kick off the month with gains, based on higher oil prices and bullish economic data, as well as on Exxon Mobil's earnings. A joint venture in ethanol also is drawing attention. Steve Gelsi reports.
Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!
Share
Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!
Share
Labels:
ExxonMobil,
Oil Prices,
sectors,
Steve Gelsi,
stocks
Crude Rises After Dollar Weakens, Report Shows Gain in Consumer Spending
Crude oil rose after the dollar dropped against the euro and U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace since August 2004, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country will gain.
Oil climbed as much as 1.8 percent as the weak dollar bolstered the appeal of commodities. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index advanced to 58.4, higher than anticipated, from December’s 54.9, figures from the Tempe, Arizona-based group showed. A separate report showed that European manufacturing gained last month.
“The first factor at work is the weaker dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “The ISM number was very strong. The strength isn’t just here, European manufacturing is also expanding.”
Crude oil for March delivery rose 95 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $73.84 a barrel at 11:31 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures fell to $72.89 on Jan. 29, the lowest settlement since Dec. 21.
The greenback slipped 0.4 percent versus the euro to $1.3911, from $1.3863 on Jan. 29.
The U.S. manufacturing figure exceeded economists’ median forecast of 55.5, according to 67 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings higher than 50 signal an expansion. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.
European manufacturing also accelerated more than estimated in January. An index of manufacturing in the 16-nation euro region increased to 52.4 from 51.6 in December, London-based Markit Economics said today.....Read the entire article.
How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively
Jump Start Your Trading, Get Market Club Today
Share
Labels:
Bloomberg,
Crude Oil,
Dollar,
Inventory,
manufacturing
Traders Ditching Oil Hoarded At Sea As Market Tightens
The amount of oil held in tankers at sea has halved from its April 2009 peak of 90 million barrels according to ship broker ICAP. Given that much of this oil was held in order to arbitrage current vs. future oil prices, a reduction in floating storage implies a tightening of the oil market.
WSJ: ICAP said there were currently 21 trading VLCCs offshore with some 43 million barrels of crude. Seven of these are expected to discharge in February and one more in March. So far, it appeared those discharged cargoes wouldn't be replaced by new ones.
"I haven't seen any fixtures for VLCC storage in the last two weeks," said Simon Newman, ICAP's senior tanker analyst. "That would imply that storage looks set to fall in the short term."
Assuming there are no new fixtures, the amount of crude in storage could sink to 27 million barrels by March, the lowest level since the current contango play began in late 2008.
Get 4 FREE Trade School Videos from INO TV!
Share
Weaker Dollar Pushes Crude Oil Higher, Bears Still have The Advantage
Crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If March extends this year's decline, the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Crude oil pivot point for Monday, our line in the sand is 73.38
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.10
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.41
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 72.43
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 71.70
Great video: Day Trading Made Simple
Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If March extends last week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.547 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
Monday's pivot point for natural gas is 5.170
First resistance is broken trading range support crossing at 5.327
Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 5.417
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.060
Second support is the 75% retracement level of the December-January rally crossing at 4.919
Advanced Trading Applications of Candlestick Trading
The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower due to light profit taking overnight after testing resistance marked by the 38% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 79.71. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If March extends this winter's rally, the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 79.76
Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2009 decline crossing at 81.32
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.73
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.07
Get Started Trading Now…..With 10 FREE Trading Lessons
Share
Labels:
Crude Oil,
moving average,
Natural Gas,
Stochastics,
U.S. Dollar
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Iraq Seals Deal with Russia's Lukoil-led Group
A consortium grouping Russia's private oil giant Lukoil and Norway's Statoil ASA on Sunday signed a final deal to develop one of Iraq's biggest oil fields, capping an auction process key to the OPEC nation's plans to boost output and generate sorely needed reconstruction revenues. The deal on West Qurna Phase 2 field in southern Iraq is the last of the 10 fields that Iraq awarded last year during two international licensing rounds as it looked to revamp an oil sector battered by years of sanctions, neglect and, most recently, postwar violence and political bickering.
The signing Sunday also offers some much needed political capital for Iraqi officials as they head into elections in March determined to show that they are actively turning the country around following the turmoil and instability that has defined Iraqis' daily lives since the 2003 U.S. led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. "These contracts will bring in cash to Iraq, and move ahead plans to develop the infrastructure," said Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani, adding that these deals afforded Iraqis the chance to "look toward a bright future."
Although it sits atop the world's third largest proven reserves of conventional crude, Iraq currently only produces about 2.5 million barrels per day, a level still far below its pre-2003 war output. Officials say international companies like Lukoi and Statoil, which together won West Qurna Phase 2 in the December licensing round, are key to raising that output to over 12 million barrels per day in about six years.
Such production, viewed by analysts as unrealistic in that timeframe, would rival Saudi Arabia's. The kingdom, seen as the de facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, currently produces over 8 million barrels per day, but has an overall output capacity in excess of 12 million barrels per day.
For the 15 international firms that won development rights in the various fields, the 20 year contracts were their first chance at access to Iraq since Saddam expelled foreign firms and nationalized the sector in the 1970s. Despite the tempting spoils, the auction results were mixed, with only 10 deals struck out of the 21 oil and gas fields offered during the two licensing rounds.....Read the entire article.
Get Started Trading Now…..With 10 FREE Trading Lessons
Share
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Weekly Fundamental Outlook For Crude Oil
Despite brief rebound to 74.82 after release of strong USD GDP, crude oil price dived to one month low at 72.43 amid rally in USD. The benchmark contract ended the week at 72.89, losing -2.2% on weekly basis and recorded the third consecutive weekly decline after surging to 83.95, the highest level in 15 months, in the beginning of January.
Fundamentals in the US energy market remain weak. The US Energy Department reported crude oil inventory dropped -3.89 mmb to 326.7 mmb in the week ended January 22. Cushing stocks also drew-0.69 mmb, the 5th consecutive weekly decline. We believe the main reason for the huge decline in crude stocks was the closure of the Houston Ship Channel, which serves the largest US petroleum port, shut for 2 days because of fog. It was reopened on January 21. Also, the oil-tanker spill in the Sabine Neches Waterway has led refiners to cut back production. We expect to see another draw next week as the oil spill is still impacting imports.
Both gasoline and distillate rose +1.99 mmb to 229.4 mmb and +0.36 mmb to 157.5 mmb respectively. Demand for gasoline edged slightly high on weekly basis but the level at 8.619M bpd remained below last year's level. Beware that last year's demand was very weak as it was in the midst of the worst of economic crisis. Distillate inventory built modestly compared with market exception or a draw. Imports surged +142%, on weekly basis, to 0.658M bpd, the highest level never seen since 2006. Demand dropped -2.6% to 3.725M bpd during the week. The level was still -12.5% below last year's level.
In coming few years, oil demand will be heavily relying on growth in Asian market. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), preliminary data indicated that China's total oil demand soared +16.4% yoy in November, driven by both government spending and supply disruption due to cold weather. Demand is anticipated to have increase +7.2% to 8.5M bpd in 2009, followed by a +4.3% rise to 8.8M bpd in 2010. China takes up almost 10% of world oil demand and that's why market sentiment has deteriorated dramatically after China guided yields higher, increased required reserve ratio and limited bank lending. The market worried that the growth engine will lose momentum this year.
Other than China, India is another hot spot. Total oil demand probably rose +5.4% in 2009, followed by another +3% this year. Robust oil consumption in India was driven by gasoline demand which, in turn, was due to strong car sales.....Read the entire article.
Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO
Share
Labels:
benchmark,
Crude Oil,
department of energy,
Inventory,
Oil N' Gold
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)