Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Monday Morning Oct. 18th

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 82.96. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 85.08
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07

Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 81.78

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 75.10


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Crude Oil Declines on Weaker Outlook in Fuel Demand

Crude oil declined for a third day in New York amid speculation that builders in the U.S. started fewer homes in September and as the dollar gained against the euro, curbing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Crude fell as the U.S. currency climbed for a second day after rebounding from the lowest level since January. Work began on 580,000 houses at an annual rate, down 3 percent from August, according to the median estimate of 56 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures due tomorrow. Futures are on the longest losing streak since September. “Oil continues to be heavily impacted by U.S. dollar movements,” said Ben Westmore, minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne.

The November contract dropped as much as 69 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $80.56 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $80.77 at 11:08 a.m. Singapore time. Futures lost $1.44, or 1.7 percent, to $81.25 on Oct. 15, the lowest settlement since Sept. 30. The market is in its longest pullback since a four day drop through Sept. 17. Prices slipped 1.7 percent last week and are up 1.8 percent this year. Brent crude for December settlement declined as much as 65 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $81.80 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange in London. The contract on Oct. 15 dropped $1.75, or 2.1 percent, to $82.45......Read the entire article.


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Gold's Uptrend Unaffected by Surprising Fall after Bernanke's Comments

World financial markets were influenced by 2 important themes last week. These themes are expected to affect investment appetite and asset price movements in the medium term. The first is Fed's return to quantitative easing. As indicated in the September FOMC statement, most Fed members inclined to implementing additional easing measures to boost the economy. Apart from buying long term Treasury securities, members also talked about strategies to anchor inflation expectations.

These views were echoed by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke during his speech at a Boston Fed conference on Friday. Bernanke said the Fed may expand asset purchases or change the language in its statement. He said that 'there would appear, all else being equal, to be a case for further action'.

Speculations for further QE have sent the dollar to a 15-year low against the yen and the USD index to the lowest level since December 11. Weakness in USD has caused abundant capitals flowing into emerging countries and pushed currencies in these countries higher. This has triggered some sorts of 'intervention' in emerging markets. For instance, Brazil and South Korea are stepping up attempts to control their currencies. This round of currency tensions have been driven by global economic imbalances.

While advanced economies have been trying to depreciate their currencies and urge emerging countries (such as China) to speed up appreciation, emerging economies are unwilling to accept the 'beggar thy neighbor' policy. The new rounds of QE and currency tensions are particularly influential for gold and the precious metal complex......Read the entire article.


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Oil N' Gold: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil attempted to draw support from 4 hours 55 EMA last week but lacked decisive strength to resume recent rally. Upside was limited below 84.43 resistance as crude oil weakened again towards the end of the week. Intraday bias remains neutral. Note that there is no confirmation of reversal yet. But even in case of another rise, we'll continue to focus on reversal signal inside resistance zone of 82.97/87.15. On the downside, break of 78.04 support will indicate that rise from 70.76 is over and turn focus back to this support level.

In the bigger picture, after all, we're still favoring the case that medium term rally from 33.2 is already completed at 87.15. Recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction and should be near to completion, if not finished. Even in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen as crude oil enters into resistance zone of 82.97/87.15 and bring reversal. We're still expecting another fall to 60 psychological level (50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18). However, decisive break of 87.15 will put focus on long term fibo level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Price actions from 147.27 are treated as consolidation in the larger up trend and with 90.24 fibo resistance intact, a test of 33.2 eventually is in favor. Though, decisive break of 90.24 will argue that crude oil will bring stronger rally to above 100 psychological level as a relatively powerful second wave of the consolidation continues.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts


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Commodity Corner: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gasoline Down for the Week

A stronger dollar, spurred by indications that the Federal Reserve plans to buy more U.S. government debt, placed downward pressure on crude oil Friday. Oil for November delivery fell $1.44 to settle at $81.25 per barrel. The euro, meanwhile, was down 0.8% against the dollar; a weaker dollar typically makes oil, priced in dollars, more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.

Boosting the greenback were comments Friday from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said Friday that the Fed was prepared to take additional measures to combat high unemployment and the threat of deflation. Under this "quantitative easing" process, the Fed would try to stimulate the economy by printing more money to buy debt. By increasing the money supply, the central bank hopes the measures would make borrowing cheaper for consumers and thus encourage Americans to spend more. Crude oil traded from $81.22 to $83.33 Friday, and it is down 1.2% for the week.

The November natural gas futures price, already buffeted in recent weeks by mild weather and abundant inventories, settled at $3.535 per thousand cubic feet Friday. The intraday trading range for gas was $3.55 to $3.68 Friday, and the commodity's settlement price fell 1.8% during the week. The front month price for gasoline declined four cents Friday to settle at $2.10 a gallon. November gasoline traded from $2.11 to $2.15, and it is down 3.2% for the week.

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Sharon Epperson: Crude Oil and Gold Next Week

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed next week.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Friday Evening Oct. 15th

The S&P 500 index closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the April-July decline crossing at 1178.21. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1148.52 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at 1203.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1180.80. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 1203.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1160.64. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1148.52.

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.62 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above last week's high crossing at 85.08 are needed to renew the rally off August's low. First resistance is last week's high crossing at 85.08. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07. First support last week's low crossing at 80.98. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.62.

Natural gas closed lower on Friday renewing this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. However, stochastics and the RSI are oversold and turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.827 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If November extends this year's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.390 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.827. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.250. First support is today's low crossing at 3.520. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.390.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices is possible near term. Upside targets will now be hard to project if it extends this year's rally into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1324.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1388.10. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1350.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1324.30.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Friday and posted a key reversal up. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.66 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 76.07 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 77.61. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 78.66. First support is today's low crossing at 76.34. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 76.07.

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Is Exxon The Best Long Term Oil Play?

Dan Dicker, senior contributor for TheStreet.Com , says if he could recommend one oil stock to buy and hold for your kids it would be Exxon.



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Phil Flynn: I'm Starting With The Man With The Money

The Europeans are Asking Him To Change His Ways. And No Message Could Have Been Any Clearer; If You Wanna Make The World A Better Place, If You Wanna Make The World A Better Place Take A Look At Yourself, And Then make a change. Or stop printing some for a change. The Man in the mirror or at least the spotlight is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke! The whole world has gone on an anticipatory tear after his promise to print more money and now some officials are fearful that this printing binge could destabilize the global economy and start a currency war.

The Financial Times says that one unnamed European official said that a further aggressive round of qualitative easing by the Federal Reserve would make US exports more competitive at the expense of its rival. This comes as an ironic situation especially considering the fact that US trade deficit hit 46.3 billion in August as imports from China continue to rise. China of course might be named a currency manipulator which could even increase the chances of a potential currency war looming ahead. This comes after the dollar hit a 15 year low against the yen and metal prices such as silver and copper soared yesterday.....Read the entire article.


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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Friday Morning Oct. 15th

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.13. At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that additional short term gains are possible.

If December renews the rally off last week's low, the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.68 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 85.08.
Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of May's decline crossing at 88.07.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 83.13.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.68.


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