Phil Flynn: Prime The Pump And Bailout The Brent

Oh sure, now you go and bail out Europe and drive the Brent Crude versus West Texas Intermediate spread back above $25 wide! Brent crude gets pumped up as global central bank pumps dollar liquidity in to European banks. The reduced risk of bank default and kicking the Greece default can further down the road had the Brent crude supply demand fundamentals tightened in a minute.

The decision of the five largest central banks to dump dollars into European banks added to the support for oil but created fears of a tightness of supply in the Brent. Weak production from the North Sea and conflicting reports on the return of Libyan crude seems to be adding to the Brent woes. There is some short term confidence coming out of the Euro zone and this will increase demand or at least expectations of demand almost instantly.


The spread between Brent crude and West Texas had previously come in, especially after U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum reserve) fell by 6.7 million barrels which put US supply at 346.4 million barrels which is still well above the five year average.


Robert Campbell of Reuters News says writes, "Looking back at the impact of the Libyan civil war on the oil market the most remarkable fact is that the situation did not lead to an oil super-spike. After all, a scramble for sweet crude in 2007 is widely seen as the trigger for the spiral in oil prices until they hit nearly $150 a barrel. Although the data are still coming in, it would appear that the Atlantic basin refining sector is now more flexible, in part due to weaker demand and in part due to investments in new capacity. Sweet refiners may be suffering because of high crude costs, but the system as a whole is not breaking down."

He goes on to say, "The resilience of the market is all the more impressive once the other supply disruptions to the European short haul sweet crude market are considered. Normal decline of the aging fields in the North Sea is well known, as is the extraordinary sequence of problems at several important production facilities in the area. Less discussed is the reduction in crude oil production in Azerbaijan, an important supplier of very low sulfur crude.

Combined with the conflict in Libya a huge amount of sweet crude oil production was lost to European refiners, many of which rely on short haul cargoes. In the first half of the year sweet crude output from Azerbaijan, Britain, Libya and Norway was 215 million barrels less than in 2010. With this number in mind, the response of the International Energy Agency to the crisis.....a release of 60 million barrels of strategic stocks, seems almost timid. Doubtless, the IEA would argue that the problems in Azerbaijan, Britain and Norway were not the classic supply disruptions the agency is meant to guard against."


Posted courtesy of Phil Flynn and PFGs Best. You can contact Phil at 800-935-6487 or email him at pflynn@pfgbest.com. Get the "Power to Prosper" by tuning into the Fox Business Network where you can see Phil every day!

Crude Oil Pressured By Euro Weakness and Greek Bailout Doubts

Crude oil was slightly lower in overnight trading as the euro has stalled in it's advance against the dollar on worries that an agreement to bail out Greece may be held up by a number of countries. Stochastics and RSI ifor WTI oil remain overbought. If November extends the rebound off August's low, the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.13 is the next upside target.

Closes below Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm that the corrective rally off August's low has ended while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 76.61 later this fall.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.13. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.47. Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 89.19.

EIA: Key Factors Affecting the Outlook for Restoring Libya's Oil Production

As the fighting in Libya begins to wind down and the Transitional National Council (TNC) establishes itself as the internationally recognized government, it is timely to review the many factors that will affect the pace and timing of the restart of the Libyan oil industry.

The TNC leadership, which views oil revenues as a means to rebuilding the country, and participants in world oil markets, who continue to grapple with tightness in the global supply of high quality crude, share a common interest in restoring Libya's oil production and exports. When this will happen is uncertain and depends to a significant extent on the political, military, and security situation that will determine when companies can return to oil fields to repair and/or restart production. It is also worth noting that at the time of writing, only the European Union and United Nations had lifted sanctions on Libya; U.S. sanctions remain in place.

Opinions vary across analysts. Some predict a slow and protracted recovery, while others are more optimistic, pointing to TNC statements on its commitment to restarting oil production. Most international oil companies (IOCs) have been cautious regarding their public statements on resuming production.

Political and military outcomes will each play an important role in creating conditions that speed or retard production activity. Politically, there must be sufficient legitimacy and legal clarity to allow for financing activity and exchanges of funds. A recognized government with the institutions in place to uphold contracts and manage revenues will be necessary for the IOCs to return. While the TNC has stated that it will respect existing contracts, IOCs seeking to purchase oil from Libya or invest in the country's oil sector must be able to identify their institutional and financial counterparts within the new regime.

One question to be addressed is whether oil revenues should be paid to the national oil company, to the oil ministry, or to other parties. Another option might be to allocate funds to an escrow account pending clarification of future arrangements so that operations can resume. IOCs also need to consider that the government and its institutions are likely to continue to evolve over time.

Militarily, remnants of the conflict may also continue to present challenges. As of this writing, Gaddafi loyalists are still in control of a few areas of the country and some analysts believe that pockets of resistance will remain even after the fighting has come to an end. Beyond the military conflict, security concerns could delay the return of oil workers and the resumption of production. While the oil industry is not very labor-intensive, a large part of the labor employed in the sector is highly specialized, and, in many cases, comprises expatriates who are likely to have found employment elsewhere. The conflict also scattered the Libyan workforce. It will take time to reassemble the staff, and even then there is a risk that the aftermath of the conflict could affect workforce morale and cohesion as employees face up to their differing roles and loyalties before and during the fighting.

Some of the security concerns are directly tied to the oil infrastructure (Figure 1). For instance, Gulf of Sirte, an area that accounts for about two thirds of Libyan oil production, saw the heaviest fighting and the most damage and is likely to face continuing security concerns. In terms of security, press reports suggest that the oil terminals and surrounding infrastructure of Ras Lanuf and Brega have been booby trapped with explosive devices.

Figure 1

The Financial Times cited land mine experts as saying it could take 18 months to clear some of the explosives, an issue that will need to be addressed before the known damage can be fully repaired. Resuming production will bring with it its own security concerns as the infrastructure is a relatively easy target. During the conflict, oil production out of the east was sporadic at times because when production resumed, it became a target for loyalist forces.

Read the entire article at www.eia.gov

Crude Oil Market Continues to Tease Us With It's Sideways Action

The crude oil market continues to tease us with its sideways action. While this market has been trending to the upside, we want to pay particular attention to the uptrend line from August 9th through today. We do not think that the crude oil market is ready to go higher based on our long term monthly Trade Triangle, which continues to be negative for this market.

The $90 a barrel resistance continues, as the market has had a difficult time moving over that area and maintaining a positive close above that zone. Look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner.

Crude oil closed higher on Thursday and remains poised to extend the rally off August's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

Closes above the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.64 would confirm an end to this summer's decline. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm an end to the corrective rally off August's low.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.47.

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 70

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Phil Flynn: The Worst Is Over?

Is it possible that the worst is over? Despite the separation anxiety in the Euro Zone and a rouge trade that took away UBS profits, many markets are signaling that they believe that at least for now, all the bad news is out. Or maybe that things can't get any worse. It looks like the plunging euro currency, the British Pound and the Swiss franc, is turning the corner as well as crude oil, a market by the way that we have called that the low is in for the year. Stocks seem to have found a bottom and their lows look like they might be in as well. Do we deserve all this optimism? It seems that support from German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy, is making the markets think there may be a master plan to save the Euro zone and the global economy as well.

Is the market right ? Do we deserve a bottom? Well whether we deserve it or not the indicators from the technical side seem to be in alignment. Oil is gaining confidence and we are seeing signs that products are bottoming. Besides, the market is rebounding from sharply lower expectations from the likes of many of the major agencies like OPEC, the Energy Information Agency as well as the International Energy Agency. Besides lowering demand, the other key for the direction of oil may be when Libya's oil comes back to the market. The International Energy Agency says that, "As the fighting in Libya begins to wind down and the Transitional National Council (TNC) establishes itself as the internationally recognized government, it is timely to review the many factors that will affect the pace and timing of the restart of the Libyan oil industry.

The TNC leadership, which views oil revenues as a means to rebuilding the country, and participants in world oil markets, who continue to grapple with tightness in the global supply of high quality crude, share a common interest in restoring Libya's oil production and exports. When this will happen is uncertain and depends to a significant extent on the political, military, and security situation that will determine when companies can return to oil fields to repair and/or restart production. It is also worth noting that at the time of writing, only the European Union and United Nations had lifted sanctions on Libya; U.S. sanctions remain in place"......Read the entire article.

Marcellus Committee Clears Permit Fee Hurdle in West Virginia

Natural gas operators would pay $10,000 to drill a well in West Virginia's share of the Marcellus shale field, and $5,000 for each additional well at the initial site, under a proposal adopted Wednesday by a special legislative committee.

The House-Senate panel also approved provisions increasing bonds posted for well projects, enhancing public notice of drilling and compensating the owners of surface land where operators drill their wells. With the committee resuming its work next month, Wednesday's changes move lawmakers closer to a regulatory bill that they hope to propose during a special session before year's end.

But the permit fee amendment has been considered a crucial hurdle in the process. Operators now pay just a few hundred dollars for a permit. The resulting revenues have helped to leave the Department of Environmental Protection's Oil and Gas office with a $1 million shortfall in its budget.....Read the entire AP article.

National Oil Well Varco and Ameron Announce Merger Agreement

National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NYSE:NOV) and Ameron International Corporation, (NYSE:AMN) have entered into an agreement under which NOV will acquire Ameron in an all cash transaction that values Ameron at approximately $772 million. Under the agreement, Ameron's stockholders would receive $85.00 per share in cash in return for each of the approximately 9.1 million shares outstanding. The boards of directors of NOV and Ameron have unanimously approved the transaction, which is subject to customary closing conditions, including the approval of holders of at least a majority of Ameron's outstanding shares. Closing could occur as early as the 4th quarter of 2011.

Ameron is a multinational manufacturer of highly engineered products and materials for the chemical, industrial, energy, transportation and infrastructure markets. Ameron is a leading producer of fiberglass composite pipe for transporting oil, chemicals and corrosive fluids, and specialized materials and products used in infrastructure projects, such as poles and construction materials in Hawaii. Ameron is also a leading provider of water transmission lines and fabricated steel products, such as wind towers.

Ameron operates businesses in North America, South America, Europe and Asia, has a presence through affiliated companies in the Middle East, and has approximately 2,900 employees and 25 manufacturing locations on a worldwide basis.

NOV is a worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and sale of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, the provision of oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.....Read the entire article.

Statements Out of Europe Not Enough to Push Oil Prices Through Resistance

The hope that the credit crisis in Europe will fade and support higher commodity prices itself is fading as oil traded slightly higher in Wednesday evenings overnight session. Crude oils Stochastics and RSI are overbought and diverging. If the bulls can break through strong resistance at 90.60 the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.55 will be the next upside target.

Crude oil bears will gain a solid technical advantage if oil closes below Monday's low crossing at 85.17. This would confirm that the corrective rally off August's low has ended while opening the door for a possible test of August's low crossing at 76.61 later this fall.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.55. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 83.47. Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 89.12.

Good News Out of Europe is Not Enough to Send Oil Higher

Yesterday, crude oil closed over the $90 a barrel level. Today is another story, as crude oil is down. This movement underscores the importance of knowing when there is a conflict between indicators. In this case, our monthly Trade Triangle which is the dominant trend indicator is pointing down, while our intermediate and daily Triangles are pointing up.

This creates a Chart Analysis Score of + 60, indicating a trading range. Presently we would use a trading range type strategy to trade this market. Those tools would consist of the Williams % R indicator, the Donchian Trading Channels, and the Parabolic SAR indicator. Look for crude oil to continue to move in a sideways to lower manner.

Crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rebound off Monday's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.

Closes below Monday's low crossing at 85.17 would confirm an end to the corrective rally off August's low. Closes above the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.92 would confirm an end to this summer's decline. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 90.60. Second resistance is the May-July downtrend line crossing near 92.92. First support is Monday's low crossing at 85.17. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 83.47.

Crude Oil Trade Triangles......

Monthly Trade Triangles for Long Term Trends = Negative
Weekly Trade Triangles for Intermediate Term Trends = Positive
Daily Trade Triangles for Short Term Trends = Positive
Combined Strength of Trend Score = + 60

David Banister: Gold Heading to $2,350 Per Ounce After 4th Wave Consolidation

In my most recent few forecasts for subscribers and public articles I’ve discussed a major correction in Gold, and it dropped $208 within 3 days of that forecast several weeks ago as Gold traders will recall. Last week I wrote about further consolidation being required in what I’m seeing as a either 4th wave likely “Triangle Pattern” that will consolidate the 34 month run from $681 to $1910 into August of this year, or a 3 wave “A B C” pattern. We are right now in some form of C wave, it’s just a matter now of confirming if we are going to get a “D and E” wave to follow, or the C wave drops lower before we bottom.

A Triangle pattern serves to let the “economics of the security” catch up with the prior large movement upwards in price. In essence, the crowd behavior pushed the price of Gold a bit too high too fast, and this consolidation pattern lets the fundamentals catch up to price action. We had a parabolic move I discussed many weeks ago, and those always end badly to the downside. The $208 drop in three days is a typical reaction to a spike run like that. At the end of the day though, I had been forecasting what I call a “Wave 3” top and was looking for a multi week or multi month consolidation pattern before Gold could move higher.

Let’s examine what that triangle projection may look like. 

They take the form of 5 waves, or what we can call ABCDE in a pattern. The biggest drop is always the “A” wave, and that was 1910 to 1702 in 3 days or less. The next biggest drop is the “C” Wave, and that was 1920 to 1793, noting it was a Fibonacci 61.8% drop relative to the A wave. In other words, each successive wave down in the 5 wave triangle is smaller. This is due to the sentiment finally shifting and the trading patterns moving from people chasing the hot sector or stock or metal, to the long term investors accumulating the dips.

If we end up consolidating in a “Triangle”, then Gold should end up looking something like the below pattern I drew, with a target of $2,350 per ounce many months out:

The other pattern we are watching for at TMTF is the ABC Correction pattern. We had the A wave down to 1702, which corrected 50% of the move from 1480-1910 in 3 days. Rarely do you get a major move down like that and not get some type of “re-test” of that low, but because the fundamentals for Gold are strong and getting stronger, we are favoring the Triangle pattern still as most likely. With that said, there is a fat and juicy “Gap” sitting in the chart around 1660 on Gold and dropping down there is what a lot of traders are watching. If that were to fulfill, then we will see an ABC correction ending around $1643, and then Gold will begin another multi month rally to new highs:

At The Market Trend Forecast I teach people my crowd behavioral methodologies and give them reliable forecasts in advance so they can be prepared with their investments. Consider working with us and following the SP 500, Silver, and Gold by going to Market Trend Forecast.com You can take advantage of a 33% discount over the next 48 hours as well.

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