U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely fell last week for the third straight week due to increased refinery utilization and lower imports, an expanded Reuters poll of analysts showed on Tuesday.
For Wednesday morning trading crude oil prices are near steady in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $85.00 and then at this week's high of $85.89. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $82.50.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Fed "Hopes" Giving Bulls Some Fresh Upside Near Term Technical Momentum
The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today as the bulls are gaining some fresh upside near term technical momentum. The market place was calmer and in more of a “risk on” mentality Tuesday following the weekend Greek elections that have at least temporarily assuaged the European Union debt and financial crisis.
There were reports Tuesday that Greece will form a new coalition government as soon as Wednesday. Traders and investors are awaiting the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting and its statement Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is determining its next course of U.S. monetary policy. Recent downbeat U.S. data has led to growing expectations for further easing of U.S. monetary policy.
Most reckon the Fed will implement some form of fresh easing of U.S. monetary policy at this week's meeting. The key will be how aggressive the Fed will respond with fresh easing.
All quotes are August contracts being reported.....
Crude oil closed up $0.85 a barrel at $84.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. The lower U.S. dollar index was also bullish for crude today. The crude bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.
Natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $2.584 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Prices did hit a fresh four week high early on today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently to suggest a market low is in place. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.
Gold futures closed down $3.10 an ounce at $1,623.90 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw some profit taking pressure from recent gains and some position evening ahead of Wednesday's FOMC results. The key “outside markets” were bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold market bulls have the slight near term technical advantage.
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There were reports Tuesday that Greece will form a new coalition government as soon as Wednesday. Traders and investors are awaiting the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting and its statement Wednesday afternoon. The Fed is determining its next course of U.S. monetary policy. Recent downbeat U.S. data has led to growing expectations for further easing of U.S. monetary policy.
Most reckon the Fed will implement some form of fresh easing of U.S. monetary policy at this week's meeting. The key will be how aggressive the Fed will respond with fresh easing.
All quotes are August contracts being reported.....
Crude oil closed up $0.85 a barrel at $84.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. The lower U.S. dollar index was also bullish for crude today. The crude bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage.
Natural gas closed down 8.4 cents at $2.584 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw a corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Prices did hit a fresh four week high early on today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently to suggest a market low is in place. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.
Gold futures closed down $3.10 an ounce at $1,623.90 today. Prices closed near mid range today and saw some profit taking pressure from recent gains and some position evening ahead of Wednesday's FOMC results. The key “outside markets” were bullish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply lower and crude oil prices were higher. Gold market bulls have the slight near term technical advantage.
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Crude Oil Price Rises on Hopes Fed will Boost U.S. Economy
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 79 cents to $84.06 per barrel. Brent crude, which helps set the price for oil imported into the U.S., added 4 cents to $96.09.
The Fed holds a two day meeting that ends Wednesday, and in the past it has taken action to encourage Americans to spend and borrow. Many analysts think the struggles of the U.S. economy and Europe’s debt crisis will compel the Fed to say or unveil something to try to boost confidence.
Any sign that the Fed is willing to take action could lift oil prices, which have fallen sharply during the past six weeks over fears that growth in the global economy will stall.
“The market is building on a little optimism that they’ll do something,” said Peter Donovan, an oil broker with Vantage Trading in New York.....Read the entire post.
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CME Morning Crude Oil Market Report For Tuesday June 19th
August Brent crude oil registered a new 17 month low this morning, and it too has been able to climb back into positive territory. It is also possible that slow progress in talks between world powers over Iran's nuclear program in Moscow have presented a measure of support to the crude oil market. Negotiations over easing sanctions on Iran made little progress yesterday and seemed to come with tough language.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Just Like the Good Old Days....Crude Oil Down, Natural Gas Up
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Natural gas closed up 17.7 cents at $2.644 today. Prices closed near the session high again today and hit a fresh four week high. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured again today. Bulls have gained good upside near term technical momentum recently to suggest a market low is in place. Bulls and bears are now on a level near term technical playing field.
Today’s MarketClub Trade Triangles
Gold futures closed down $0.70 an ounce at $1,627.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on some chart consolidation following recent gains. The key “outside markets” were bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were lower. Yet, gold managed to have only small losses, which does suggest safe haven demand for gold is present. Gold market bulls have the slight near term technical advantage.
Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500
Chesapeake's New Chair to be Named
Chesapeake Energy's new chairman and additional directors will be named by Friday, reports CNBC's Kate Kelly.
Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500
Check out our latest Video, Market Analysis and Forecast for the Dollar, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, and the SP500
Working Crude Oil Storage Capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma Rises
As of March 31, 2012 working crude oil storage capacity at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage and trading hub was 61.9 million barrels, an increase of 6.9 million barrels (13%) from September 30, 2011 and 13.9 million barrels (29%) from a year earlier, as reported in EIA's recently released report on Working and Net Available Shell Storage Capacity.
Utilization of working storage capacity on March 31, 2012 was 64%, an increase from the 53% observed in September 2011, but lower than the 86% observed on March 31, 2011. The report also noted that operating shell storage capacity increased 8.1 million barrels (12%) from September 30, 2011 to reach 74.6 million barrels.
Both storage capacity and the level of inventories held at Cushing are closely watched market indicators, as Cushing is the market hub for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil that is the basis for crude oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. High inventory levels at Cushing have been a symptom of transportation constraints that have resulted in WTI trading at a discount relative to comparable grades of crude oil since early 2011.
Growing volumes of U.S. crude oil production, along with a higher level of imports from Canada, have helped contributed to the record levels of inventories at Cushing. Increased flows of crude oil from these two sources, along with expectations for future increases, have consequently created the need for additional storage at the hub.
Weekly data show that as of June 1, 2012, crude oil inventories held at Cushing were 47.8 million barrels, the highest level on record and very close to total working storage capacity as of March 2011. However, due to the growth in storage capacity between March 2011 and March 2012, the utilization rate for working storage capacity at Cushing has actually declined over the past 14 months.
Utilization of working storage capacity on March 31, 2012 was 64%, an increase from the 53% observed in September 2011, but lower than the 86% observed on March 31, 2011. The report also noted that operating shell storage capacity increased 8.1 million barrels (12%) from September 30, 2011 to reach 74.6 million barrels.
Both storage capacity and the level of inventories held at Cushing are closely watched market indicators, as Cushing is the market hub for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil that is the basis for crude oil futures contracts traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. High inventory levels at Cushing have been a symptom of transportation constraints that have resulted in WTI trading at a discount relative to comparable grades of crude oil since early 2011.
Growing volumes of U.S. crude oil production, along with a higher level of imports from Canada, have helped contributed to the record levels of inventories at Cushing. Increased flows of crude oil from these two sources, along with expectations for future increases, have consequently created the need for additional storage at the hub.
Weekly data show that as of June 1, 2012, crude oil inventories held at Cushing were 47.8 million barrels, the highest level on record and very close to total working storage capacity as of March 2011. However, due to the growth in storage capacity between March 2011 and March 2012, the utilization rate for working storage capacity at Cushing has actually declined over the past 14 months.
SP 500 and Crude Oil Monday Morning Madness
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Crude oil prices are trading lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $82.50.
In S&P 500 futures Prices hit a fresh four week high overnight. The shorter term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4 day moving average is above the 9 day and 18 day. The 9 day is above the 18 day moving average. Short term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday's low of 1,324.40 and then at 1,305.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
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Crude oil prices are trading lower in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy but bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $84.00 and then at $85.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $83.00 and then at $82.50.
In S&P 500 futures Prices hit a fresh four week high overnight. The shorter term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18- day) are bullish early today. The 4 day moving average is above the 9 day and 18 day. The 9 day is above the 18 day moving average. Short term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Today, shorter term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,347.00 and then at 1,360.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday's low of 1,324.40 and then at 1,305.80. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
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Friday, June 15, 2012
The Facts Behind Oil Prices
Posted courtesy of Gary Morsches at the CME Group....
Following up on my post about the benefits of speculation, and what really impacts the price of oil and gasoline, it’s worth sharing this infographic we designed to visually break down the elements that determine the price of energy. As you can see, it’s a mixture of many factors, each of which carries a varying amount of influence depending on current economic and geopolitical conditions.
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Following up on my post about the benefits of speculation, and what really impacts the price of oil and gasoline, it’s worth sharing this infographic we designed to visually break down the elements that determine the price of energy. As you can see, it’s a mixture of many factors, each of which carries a varying amount of influence depending on current economic and geopolitical conditions.
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Thursday, June 14, 2012
Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold Market Commentary For Thursday Evening June 14th
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Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.07. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.
Natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 signaling that a double bottom with April's low appears to have been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.522. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.168. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.
Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.
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Crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates above the 87% retracement level of the 2011-2012 rally crossing at 81.36. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If July renews this spring's decline, last October's low crossing at 77.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 87.03. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 87.21. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 81.07. Second support is last October's low crossing at 77.05.
Natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 signaling that a double bottom with April's low appears to have been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 2.487 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.136 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 2.522. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 2.838. First support is today's low crossing at 2.168. Second support is April's low crossing at 2.136.
Gold closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally off last Friday's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August renews the rally off May's low, April's high crossing at 1674.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1632.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1674.30. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1591.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 1529.30.
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