SP 500 “E Wave” ready to rally to Bull Market Highs

From guest analyst David Banister at Market Trends Forecast.com.......

In recent updates I have been projecting a series of ABCDE waves to take the Bull market to post March 2009 highs in the 1425-1445 ranges. The recent pullback was expected as what I was calling a “D wave” pullback, with an E wave to come. These final 5th waves or E waves can be extension waves or relatively benign, hence causing difficulty in forecasting the upper ranges.

In the case of the SP 500 index, we have had a strong rally from the 1267 lows in early June to 1409 highs so far (The C wave highs) and recently a pullback into the 1390’s (The D wave). This next leg up should carry the market indices towards the 1440 2008 interim highs which begat the last 5 wave down leg of the Bear cycle that ended at 666 on the SP 500. A case of down the mountain and up the mountain if you will since the 2008 highs to current pricing conditions at 1404.

Once this E wave completes in the 1425-1445 ranges (With an outside shot at an extension blast to 1495) we should expect a fairly significant correction of the entire move from March of 2009. This final rally leg could top anytime between Aug 13th and August 22nd as I last updated, with potential to spill over into early September.

A close over 1409 will confirm the “E wave” has begun in earnest and you may want to buckle up, as it could be the final blast before some rains begin to pour in the fall.

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Gold Mining Stocks Continue to Disappoint ......But Not For Long

 From Chris Vermeulen....The Gold & Oil Guy

It is an endless debate for investors interested in gold. Should they buy a direct play on the gold price, either gold bullion itself or even so called paper gold with an ETF such as the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)? Or should they invest into gold equities, particularly the larger, higher quality gold mining companies?

Recent history suggests the answer is gold itself. According to Citigroup, physical gold has outperformed global gold equities 120% percent of the time over the past 5 years. Stocks of the bigger gold mining firms seem to react adversely to bad news (which is normal), but the problem is they react with no more than a yawn to good news. These type of stocks are contained in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX).

Evidence of this trend can been seen in the latest news to hit the industry…the slowdown in expansion as recently signaled by the world’s largest gold producer, Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX). The company’s stock has fallen by more than 30 percent over the last year due to cost overruns at major projects. The latest blowup in costs of up to $3 billion occurred in its estimate for development of its flagship Pascua-Lama project on the border of Chile and Argentina. The project may now cost up to $8 billion.

In addition, Barrick decided to shelve the $6 billion Cerro Casale in Chile and the $6.7 billion Donlin Gold project in Alaska. Barrick is not alone in its thinking among the major gold producers. The CEO of Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM), Sean Boyd, recently said “The era of gold mega projects may be fading. The industry is moving into an era of cash flow generation, yields and capital discipline.”

Fair enough. But are gold mining companies’ management walking the walk about yields or just talking the talk? Last year, many of the larger miners made major announcements that they would be focusing on boosting their dividends to shareholders in attempt to attract new stockholders away from exchange traded vehicles such as GLD, which have siphoned demand away from gold equities. Barrick, for example, did boost its dividend payout by a quarter from the previous level. Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), which has also cut back on expansion plans, has pledged to link its dividend payout to the price of gold bullion.

So in effect, the managements at the bigger gold mining companies (which are having difficulties growing) are trying to move away from attracting growth-only investors to enticing investors that may be interested in high dividend yields. This is a logical move.

But rising costs at mining projects may put a crimp into the plans of gold mining companies’ as they may not have the cash to raise dividends much. And they have done a poor job of raising dividends for their shareholders to date. In 2011 the dividend yields for gold producers globally was less than half the average for the mining sector as a whole at a mere 1.3 percent. Their yields are below that of the base metal mining sector and the energy sector.

It seems like management for these precious metal companies have the similar emotional response shareholders have when they are in a winning position. When the investor’s brain has experienced a winning streak and is happy it automatically goes into preservation/protection mode. What does this mean? It means management is going to tight up their spending to stay cash rich as they do not want to give back the gains during a time of increased uncertainty. Smaller bets/investments are what the investor’s brain is hard wired to do which is not always the right thing to do…

Looks like there is still a lot work to be done by gold mining companies’ to improve returns to their shareholders. But with all that set aside it is important to realize that when physical gold truly starts another major rally. These gold stocks will outperform the price of gold bullion drastically for first few months.

Gold Miner Trading Conclusion:

In short, it seems gold has been forming a major launch pad for higher prices over the past year. Gold bullion has held up well while gold miner stocks have given up over 30% of their gains. If/when gold starts another rally I do feel gold miner stocks will be the main play for quick big gains during the first month or two of a breakout. The increased price in gold could and value of the mining companies reserves could be enough to get management to start paying their investors a decent dividend which in turn would fuel gold miner shares higher.

Both gold and silver bullion prices remain in a down trend on the daily chart but are trying to form a base to rally from which may start any day now. Keep your eye on precious metals going into year end.

If you would like to get my weekly analysis on precious metals and the board market be sure to join my free newsletter at The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen

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Brent Crude Oil Trades $115...Where are commodities headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets and looks at where oil and precious metals are likely headed tomorrow.

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Natural Gas Moving into a Downtrend

Natural Gas prices have made a decided turn to the downside over the last two weeks as has the short term temperature outlook and the nuclear power outage situation... all now more biased to the bearish side than they were in July. The spot natural gas futures price peaked at about $3.28/mmbtu on July 31 and has been continuing to slide ever since. In the last eight trading sessions the spot natural gas contract has lost $0.507/mmbtu or 15.5% since hitting the high of the uptrend.

Currently the market looks like it is trying to settle into a technical trading range of around $2.70/mmbtu to about $3.17/mmbtu. If the $2.70/mmbtu level is breached the next stopping point could be down to the $2.50/mmbtu level. The Nat Gas market has had a good recovery run rising from around $1.90/mmbtu back during the second week of April to the $3.28/mmbtu high previously highlighted.

The majority of the support for the rally has come from the consistent underperformance of weekly injections throughout the entire injection season so far. In fact weekly injections have averaged around 67% of last year which has resulted in the overhang in inventory continuing to narrow throughout the season. However, even with an underperformance of around 33% so far this season there is still a considerably large amount of gas in inventory versus last year at the moment......Read the entire CME Group article.

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ONG: Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Sunday August 12th

As always we like to check in with the great staff at Oil N'Gold for their call on where crude oil is headed this week.....

Crude oil resumed the rally from 77.28 by taking out 92.94 and reached as high as 94.72 before making a temporary top there. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But we'll stay bullish as long as 86.92 support holds. As noted before, decline from 110.55 should have finished at 77.28 already. Current rebound from there should extend and above 94.72 will target 61.8% retracement of 110.55 to 77.28 at 97.84 and above.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 114.84 are viewed as a three wave consolidation pattern with fall from 110.55 as the third leg. Such decline could have finished earlier than we expected at 77.28. Sustained trading above 90 psychological level will bring stronger rally towards 114.83 resistance level. And break there will resumption whole up trend from 33.2. On the downside, another fall cannot be ruled out yet. But even in that case, strong support should be seen below 74.95 and above 61.8% retracement of 33.20 to 114.83 at 64.38 and bring another medium term rise.

In the long term picture, crude oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with first wave completed at 33.2. The corrective structure of the rise from 33.2 indicates that it's second wave of the consolidation pattern. While it could make another high above 114.83, we'd anticipate strong resistance ahead of 147.24 to bring reversal for the third leg of the consolidation pattern.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hour, Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts

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The Spike in Oil Prices on QE3 Expectations Should be a Warning to the Fed

Crude Oil prices for WTI were just $78 dollars in July, a month later they are $93.40 with supplies well above their five year average range, China decelerating at a rate not seen since the financial crisis, and US gasoline demand down 4.2 percent year on year and distillates down 2.8 percent.

So what the heck is going on in the Oil Markets? Well, just look at the S&P for your answer: Capital has flowed into assets based upon the expectation that Bernanke and his cohorts at the Federal Reserve will print some more money out of thin air in the form of some monetary easing initiative falling under the heading of QE3.....See Chart and complete article

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Penn West Announces 2nd Quarter 2012 Earnings Report

Penn West Petroleum [NYSE: PWE] is pleased to announce its results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2012

The broad deployment of horizontal multi stage fracture technology into primary development, secondary recovery, and exploration gives Penn West one of the largest inventories of low risk, light oil projects in North America. Through active portfolio management, we continue to position the company to drive this asset base forward. We anticipate Canadian crude oil prices strengthening over the next 12 months as slow and steady demand increases are amplified by improvements in North American pipeline infrastructure pushing Canadian crude into closer alignment with world oil pricing.

Capital programs during the first half of 2012 continued the evolution of Penn West into a leading light oil exploration and development company. At the beginning of 2010, less than two percent of production came from horizontal wells while our base vertical wells accounted for 98 percent of our production. We anticipate that by the end of this year, 30 percent of Penn West's production will come from multi stage fracture wells.

HIGHLIGHTS

Average production in the second quarter of 2012 was 163,181 boe (1) per day compared to 156,107 in the second quarter of 2011. During the second quarter of 2012, we completed significant turnaround and maintenance activities which resulted in up to 10,000 boe per day being off-line for portions of the quarter.

We drilled 208 net wells in the first six months of 2012.

Capital expenditures for the second quarter of 2012 net of property dispositions, totalled $310 million compared to $240 million for the second quarter of 2011. Second quarter activities were primarily focused on completions, tie-ins and facilities construction.

Capital expenditures in the first six months of 2012, net of property dispositions, were $648 million compared to $676 million for the first six months of 2011.

Funds flow (2) for the second quarter of 2012 was $272 million ($0.57 per share-basic (2) compared to $396 million ($0.85 per share-basic) reported in the second quarter of 2011 due to reduced commodity price realizations.

Net income for the second quarter of 2012 was $235 million ($0.50 per share-basic) compared to $271 million ($0.58 per share-basic) in the second quarter of 2011.....Read the entire earnings report.

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Abraxas Announces $11 Million Second Quarter Profit Despite Lower Oil Prices

Abraxas Petroleum Corporation (NASDAQ:AXAS) reported financial and operating results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2012 and provided an operational update.

Financial and Operating Results

Including Abraxas' equity interest in Blue Eagle's production, the three months ended June 30, 2012 resulted in:

* Production of 388.7 MBoe (4,272 Boepd), up 12% over Q1 2012, of which 54% was oil or natural gas liquids.

The three months ended June 30, 2012 resulted in:

* Production of 358.5 MBoe (3,940 Boepd), excluding Abraxas' equity interest in Blue Eagle's production, a 10% increase over Q1 2012;

* Revenue of $15.9 million

* EBITDA(a) of $8.9 million

* Discretionary cash flow(a) of $7.1 million

* Net income of $10.9 million, or $0.12 per share

* Adjusted net income(a) of $1.9 million, or $0.02 per share

* Debt Covenant Metrics:

Working Capital 1.09:1.0 (min 1.0:1.0)

Debt to EBITDA 2.85:1.0 (max 4.0:1.0)

Interest Coverage 7.38:1.0 (min 2.5:1.0)

(a) See reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures below.

Net income for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 was $10.9 million, or $0.12 per share, compared to a net income of $8.9 million, or $0.10 per share, for the same period in 2011.

Adjusted net income, excluding certain non-cash items, for the quarter ended June 30, 2012 was $1.9 million or $0.02 per share, compared to adjusted net income, excluding certain non cash items, of $1.0 million or $0.01 per share for the same period in 2011. For the quarters ended June 30, 2012 and 2011, adjusted net income excludes the unrealized gain on derivative contracts of $10.3 million and $8.0 million respectively. Also excluded is a full cost impairment on Canadian assets of $1.3 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2012.

Unrealized gains or losses on derivative contracts are based on "mark to market" valuations which are non cash in nature and may fluctuate drastically period to period. As commodity prices fluctuate, these derivative contracts are valued against current market prices at the end of each reporting period in accordance with Accounting Standards Codification 815, "Derivatives and Hedging," as amended and interpreted, and require Abraxas to record an unrealized gain or loss based on the calculated value difference from the previous period end valuation.

For example, NYMEX oil prices on June 30, 2012 were $84.96 per barrel compared to $103.02 on March 31, 2012......Read the entire earnings report.

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EIA: Low U.S. Injections Reflect Already High Natural Gas Storage Inventories

The increase in U.S. working natural gas inventories nearly half way through the 2012 injection season the period from April through October when most natural gas is stored underground to help meet heating demand during the upcoming winter was the lowest in 12 years. The slow start to the injection season reflects record high inventories at the end of this winter, leaving less space to be filled, and a large increase in natural gas use by the U.S. electric sector for power generation. EIA estimates that, by November, working natural gas inventories will hit a record high, exceeding 3,900 billion cubic feet (Bcf). U.S. dry natural gas production was up almost 7% from January through May of 2012 compared to the same period in 2011, so natural gas injections have not shifted lower due to a downturn in domestic natural gas production.

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The amount of working natural gas in underground storage increased 625 Bcf during April-June 2012, according to EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. That is the smallest build since adding 564 Bcf, on a net basis, during the same period in 2000 (see chart above). While the increase in inventories is low, the amount of total gas in underground storage facilities is at a record high for this time of year, after topping 3,000 Bcf for the first time ever during any June month.

Here is the EIA injection and usage charts

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Are Oil Inflation Pains Here to Stay?

Discussing whether oil inflation is here to stay, with Addison Armstrong, Tradition Energy, and Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter.

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