Stocks Preparing for Pullback, Buy Bad News, Sell the Good

The SP500 remains in a strong uptrend, but the index has posted a sizable gains for 2013 thus far so it’s only logical that a pullback within this bull market takes place sooner than later.

With May now upon us and historically prices fall more times than not we feel a 3-4 weeks correction is on the verge of starting. This Friday we just had very strong economic numbers confirming the economy is recovering. This news has sent stocks sharply higher as shorts cover their positions and investors who are not yet long get into position to profit from higher prices. But the herd psychology and their trades are typically incorrect as they invest based on fear and greed. The old saying is buy on negative news and sell on positive news will typically get you on the correct side of the market more times than not if used with price, volume and cycles.

The Technical Traders – SP500 Index Weekly Chart

If we look at the price of the SP500 we need it to breakdown below the recent pivot low before we become bearish. Volume which is not shown on this chart is below average as price moves higher and this is a bearish sign also.

Looking at a basic cycle using the stochastics indicator we can see that the current cycle is starting to turn down. Cycles tend to lead price during an uptrend so we could still have stocks move higher for another week or so but be aware that when price starts to drop its likely a market top. But until then you must respect the uptrend. Stocks can remain overbought and toppy looking for months… so done be gambling and trying to pick a top until we see breakdown start.



SP500 Stocks Trading Above 200 Moving Average – The Technical Traders View

Stocks trading above the 200 day moving average is a great indicator for helping spot broad market underlying strength/weakness. It does lag the market but is still very powerful. The chart below shows this info and my thinking of what is likely to unfold sooner than later though price may still rise for several days yet.

We also use a similar chart for timing swing trades and market tops which are based on stocks trading above the 20 day moving average. This chart is not shown here but is now trading at a level which generally triggers selling/market top.



Stock Market and SP500 Trading and Investing Conclusion:

In short, we are still bullish on the market as we focus on trading with the trend. We do not pick market tops and we do not pick market bottoms. Knowing that stocks make their biggest moves at the end of their uptrend and at the end of a down trend it’s only common sense that risk is extremely high if you are betting against the current trend.

The best thing to do is wait for a technical breakdown and reversal which puts the odds more in your favor with much less risk and typically a clear line in the sand to exit the position if you are incorrect.

The last major stock market top which formed in September of last year had a series of strong news and strong price action persuading the herd to buy stocks. Instead it was the last impulse wave up just before a strong correction took place. That is much like what we see now with the economic news.

Join our free newsletter and stay on right side of the market while reducing your trading/investing stress. My simple yet effective analysis walks you through the market each week without bias. Remember Price and Volume is what makes you money trading NOT news or forecasts.

Join our FREE Newsletter Today!


Check out our current specials for full subscription members.

It's time for you to make a decision....are you in?

Whether you're trading commodities, stocks, futures, or the forex using Options to diversity your trading could be one of the most profitable decisions of your trading career and your families future. With Options, you can make money [even draw a weekly paycheck] if the market is trading sideways, up or down. And there are strategies with which you make money even if you're wrong at predicting the market direction.

Yes, it's true. And Doc Severson put together an entire mentoring program taking you by the hand and showing you how to make it happen. But it's the LAST time he's making this bonus package available this year and you only have 24 hours to get in.

It's the most comprehensive mentoring program available and it comes with a 1 Year, 100% Money Back Performance Guarantee, PLUS an extra $500 if you've taken this course seriously and still can't make it work for you. It's one of the few cases where I'd say it's truly a no brainer.

Click here to enroll today

In addition to all Doc's trading strategies, worksheets, and trading tools. He's also giving you his daily updates 5 days a week for an entire year. That's right, you get to see all of his trade picks including his exact entry price, exit strategy, and how he managed the trade. This alone is easily worth the price of the course. If not money.

Whether you get on board or not we'll see you in the markets. Are you going to be trading with us or against us?

Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader


Get the OptionsMD Mentoring Program today!



 

Earnings season continues.....Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A], Statoil [STO] and Plains Exploration [PXP]

Royal Dutch Shell [RDS.A] Chief Executive Officer Peter Voser commented: “Our industry continues to see significant energy price volatility as a result of economic and political developments. Oil prices have fallen recently but Shell is implementing a long term, competitive and innovative strategy against this volatile backdrop.”

“Shell's underlying CCS earnings were $7.5 billion for the quarter, a 2% increase in CCS earnings per share from the first quarter of 2012. These results were underpinned by Shell's growth projects, an improvement in downstream profitability, and were delivered despite a difficult security environment in Nigeria.”

“Our profits pay for Shell's dividends and investment in new projects to ensure affordable and reliable energy supplies for our customers, and to add value for our shareholders.”

“Shell is investing for profitable growth, whilst maintaining strong capital discipline. We are developing some 30 new projects and maturing a series of further opportunities for investment. So far this year, we’ve seen the growth impact of recent start ups and we took four final investment decisions in petrochemicals, deepwater, and LNG”......Read the entire Shell earnings report.

Statoil [STO] president and CEO Helge Lundfirst announced 1st quarter 2013 net operating income was NOK 38.0 billion. Adjusted earnings were NOK 42.4 billion. "We deliver financial results impacted by lower production and reduced prices. We continue to deliver good industrial progress according to plan. As previously announced, production in 2013 will be lower than in 2012. We are on track to deliver 2 to 3% average annual production growth from 2012 to 2016 and production above 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2020," says Helge Lund, Statoil's president and CEO.

In addition to the expected lower production in the quarter, production was impacted by operational disruptions at Snøhvit, Troll and Peregrino. Statoil's net operating income was also impacted by a provision related to the Cove Point terminal in the US. Adjusted earnings [5] were down 28% compared to the first quarter 2012. The underlying cost development in the period is stable.

Statoil's cash flows provided by operating activities decreased by 19% compared to the first quarter of 2012, explained by the lower production and reduced prices......Read the entire Statoil earnings report.

Plains Exploration & Production Company (PXP) announces 2013 first-quarter financial and operating results. PXP reported first-quarter revenues of $1.2 billion and net income attributable to common stockholders of $22.6 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to revenues of $524.3 million and a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $82.3 million, or $0.64 per diluted share, for the first-quarter of 2012.

The first quarter 2013 net income attributable to common stockholders includes certain items affecting the comparability of operating results. Those items consist of realized and unrealized gains and losses on our mark to market derivative contracts resulting in a net loss of $202.0 million due in large part to higher crude oil forward prices, a $15.5 million unrealized gain on investment in McMoRan Exploration Co. common stock, debt extinguishment costs of $18.1 million, and other items. When considering these items, PXP reports adjusted net income attributable to common stockholders of $139.6 million, or $1.05 per diluted share (a non-GAAP measure), compared to $77.0 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, for the same period in 2012.

A reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures used in this release to comparable GAAP financial measures is included with the financial tables. PXP's 2013 first-quarter daily sales volumes averaged 170.4 thousand BOE per day compared to 87.9 thousand BOE in the first quarter of 2012......Read the entire Plains Exploration earnings report.


Get the service fund managers rely on everyday.....OptionsMD is open!

Wednesday's earnings....Devon Energy [DVN], Murply Oil Corp. [MUR] and Phillips 66 [PSX]

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX), an energy manufacturing and logistics company, announces first quarter earnings of $1.4 billion compared with earnings of $636 million in the first quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings were $1.4 billion, an increase of $617 million from the first quarter of 2012.

“We achieved strong financial results in the first quarter by capturing favorable chemicals and refining margins,” said Greg Garland, chairman and chief executive officer. “Operating excellence is our top priority, and in the first quarter we continued to improve upon our solid safety and environmental performance. We also are investing in the continued growth of our business. Our plans for a new natural gas liquids fractionator on the Gulf Coast reinforce our commitment to the American energy landscape and highlight our unique opportunities across the downstream value chain.”

“Increasing shareholder distributions remains a key component of our strategy and value proposition. During the quarter, we paid an increased dividend and repurchased $382 million of stock as part of our $2 billion share repurchase program. Since the company’s inception a year ago, we have returned $1.2 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases,” Garland concluded......Read the entire Phillips 66 earnings report.

Devon Energy Corporation (NYSE:DVN) today reported a net loss of $1.3 billion or $3.34 per common share ($3.34 per diluted share) for the quarter ended March 31, 2013. The quarterly loss was attributable to a $1.9 billion non cash asset impairment charge primarily related to lower oil and natural gas liquids pricing. Adjusting for this non cash charge and other items securities analysts typically exclude from their published estimates, the company earned $270 million or $0.66 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2013.

Devon continued to deliver strong oil production growth in the first quarter of 2013. Companywide oil production averaged 162,000 barrels per day, a 14 percent increase compared to the first quarter of 2012 and an 8 percent increase over the fourth quarter of 2012. Driven by the Permian Basin, the most significant growth came from the company’s U.S. operations, where oil production increased 23 percent year over year.

Total production of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids increased to an average of 687,000 oil equivalent barrels (Boe) per day in the first quarter. This exceeded the top end of the company’s guidance by 2,000 barrels per day. First quarter production benefited from better-than-expected results across several core development assets, including Jackfish and Cana-Woodford......Read the entire Devon Energy earnings report.

Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE: MUR) announced today that net income in the first quarter of 2013 was $360.6 million ($1.88 per diluted share), compared to net income of $290.1 million ($1.49 per diluted share) in the first quarter of 2012. The first quarter of 2013 included income from discontinued operations of $152.6 million ($0.80 per diluted share) compared to income of $8.6 million ($0.05 per diluted share) in 2012.

The 2013 discontinued operations results primarily related to a gain on sale of two oil and natural gas properties in the United Kingdom during the quarter. Income from continuing operations was $208.0 million ($1.08 per diluted share) in the first quarter 2013, down from $281.5 million ($1.44 per diluted share) in the 2012 quarter.

Income from continuing operations declined in the 2013 quarter compared to 2012 due primarily to higher expenses for exploration, administration, financing and income taxes. Better results for the Company’s downstream operations partially offset these higher expenses......Read the entire Murphy Oil Corp. earnings report.


Get the same help fund managers use to trade commodities.....OptionsMD is Open!
 

Does this concern you? Let's look at the "Macro Trend of the Markets"

Great post from our trading partner Doc Severson this morning.....

The Bureau of Labor Statistics stated 60% more seniors are working today than they were 10 years ago. Isn't that shocking? There are some clear reasons for this.

When I was a kid, I was told to "save for retirement" and invest in the stock market. This was good advice when bank interest rates were upwards of 10%, and you could count on the S&P making regular advancements. But over the last 13 years, people are only now starting to see the writing on the wall.

Back in the day, the macro trend of the markets steadily climbed from the mid-70s UNTIL the peak in 2000.

But since the crash in 2000, we've seen nothing but sideways trading for the last 13 years and interest rates at an all time low. During the same time, we also had two major crashes, and well.....who knows what could happen by the end of the year.

So what's next?

I'd rather not pretend to predict the market. Instead, I'll continue to trade a robust trading plan, proven to generate a consistent monthly income during the same time most people have struggled.

It's a system that's taken me years to develop, and is uniquely designed to use a combination of non-directional strategies, semi directional strategies, and directional strategies. This way your trading results are independent of market direction!

Not only will I teach you how to trade these trading strategies, when you enroll in OptionsMD today, I'll take you by the hand to show you exactly what I plan to trade, how I plan to trade it, and let you see my open trades.

So what do you say?

Bottom line....If you want to learn how to make a consistent monthly income by protecting and growing your wealth Click here to join me inside of OptionsMD today!

Kinder Morgan Completes Acquisition of Copano Energy KMP CPNO

COT fund favorite Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) today closed its previously announced acquisition of Houston based Copano Energy (NASDAQ:CPNO). KMP has acquired all of Copano’s outstanding units for a total purchase price of approximately $5 billion, including the assumption of debt. The transaction, which was approved by the Copano unitholders on April 30 (with more than 99 percent of the units that voted voting in favor of the transaction) and previously by the boards of directors of both companies, is a 100 percent unit for unit transaction with an exchange ratio of .4563 KMP units per Copano unit.

“We are delighted to complete this transaction, which will enable us to significantly expand our midstream services footprint and offer a wider array of services to our customers,” said KMP Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder. “We will now pursue incremental development in the Eagle Ford Shale play in South Texas, and gain entry into the Barnett Shale Combo in North Texas and the Mississippi Lime and Woodford shales in Oklahoma. The transaction is expected to be modestly accretive to KMP in 2013, given the partial year, and about $0.10 per unit accretive for at least the next five years beginning in 2014”......Read the entire Kinder Morgan press release.


OptionsMD Mentoring Program is now open for enrollment!

Tuesdays earnings.... Valero Energy [VLO] and Exco Resources [XCO]

EXCO Resources (NYSE:XCO) today announced first quarter results for 2013. Adjusted net income, a non GAAP measure adjusting for gains from asset sales, non cash gains or losses from derivative financial instruments (derivatives), non cash ceiling test write downs and other items typically not included by securities analysts in published estimates, was $0.13 per diluted share for the first quarter 2013 compared to $0.03 per diluted share for the first quarter2012.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion and amortization, gains on asset sales, ceiling test write downs and other non cash income and expense items (adjusted EBITDA, a non GAAP measure) for the first quarter 2013 were $96 million compared with $111 million in the first quarter 2012.

GAAP results were net income of $158 million, or $0.74 per diluted share, for the first quarter 2013 compared with a net loss of $282 million, or $1.32 per diluted share, for the first quarter 2012. The first quarter 2013 includes a $187 million gain from the contribution of 74.5% of our interests in certain conventional properties to our partnership with Harbinger Group Inc. (HGI). The first quarter 2012 net loss was primarily due to a $276 million non-cash ceiling test writedown of oil and natural gas properties......Read the entire Exco Resources earnings report.

Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO) today reported net income attributable to Valero stockholders of $654 million, or $1.18 per share, for the first quarter of 2013 compared to a net loss attributable to Valero stockholders of $432 million, or $0.78 per share, for the first quarter of 2012. Included in the first quarter 2012 results was a noncash asset impairment loss of $605 million after taxes, or $1.09 per share, predominately related to the Aruba refinery.

First quarter 2013 operating income was $1.1 billion versus an operating loss of $244 million in the first quarter of 2012. Excluding the noncash asset impairment loss noted above, first quarter 2012 operating income was $367 million. The resulting increase in operating income of approximately $700 million in 2013 was primarily due to higher refining throughput margins in each of Valero's operating regions, except the U.S. West Coast. The increase in refining throughput margins was mainly due to an increase in margins for diesel and jet fuel and wider discounts on crude oil and feedstocks......Read the entire Valero Energy earnings report.


No reason to get left behind....The OptionsMD Mentoring Program is now available

No reason to get left behind....The OptionsMD Mentoring Program is now available

2013 will go down as the year that options trading became "the buzz" in the stock market world. And regardless of the claims made by the internet promoters or the talking heads and their guest on TV they sure didn't make it any easier to understand options trading or even where to get started.

One of our trading partners, underground Options trader Doc Severson, is opening a new version of his mentoring program. The OptionsMD Mentoring Program, and it is now available for the first time since he sold out over 6 months ago.

Whether you are new to trading options or you are an experienced fund manager you need to get on board for you or your clients sake.

If you know anything about Doc, then you know he's doing things with options trading that most people have never even heard of. And now, he's offering his mentoring program with an unbelievable one year 100% money back PLUS $500 performance guarantee.

This is the LAST time this year that Doc is offering a bonus package this huge. And the best part of all is the unlimited support provided by Doc and his staff. Who else can you turn to where you can get personal, unlimited support from this type of trader?

Click Here for Details

Lot's of talk out there about equities putting in a top at these levels. And professional fund managers aren't dealing with it on their own, why should you? If you're struggling with a topping market or not making the amount of money you think you should be making, there's nothing better than to be mentored by someone that really has a strategy that works no matter which way the market turns.

This is the first release like this where traders are sending us emails trying to get us to have Doc release it early to them. Because of the personal support that Doc and his team provide it truly is offered to a limited number of traders. That's not some marketing ploy we all see everyday on the internet. Once it's closed, it's closed.

Click here to find out what The OptionsMD Mentoring Program is all about.

See you in the markets!
Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader


Just click here to get OptionsMD, it's LIVE!

Are you ready? Gold Traders and Investors Better Get Ready To Rumble!

We have talked about how gold, silver and gold mining stocks have been flying under the media radar for over a year and that they were not catching the attention of traders, investors and the public anymore. I also said it would take some sharp price action (breakdown or rally) for it to be front and center again on TV, Radio and Newspapers.

But since gold has plummeted 17.5% dropping from $1600 down to $1320 per ounce with silver and gold stocks falling also they are now headline news once again. This move has caused some serious damage to the charts when looking at it from a technical analysis point of view. Below are some basic analysis points that show a new swing trading entry point.

The Technical Traders Chart Analysis

Broken Support – Once a support level has been broken it becomes resistance. Gold is trading under a major resistance level.

Momentum Bursts - Since the April 15th low, gold has been setting up for another short selling entry point. Remember the market tends to move in bursts of three, seven or ten days then price reverses direction or pauses. It has now been 10 days.

Moving Average Resistance – Gold has worked its way up to the 20 day moving average which can act as resistance.

Bearish Inside Bars – This type of chart pattern points to lower prices. When there is a big down day followed by 3, 7 or 10 up days inside the price action of the down bar we can typically expect another sharp drop which tests the recent lows as shown with the arrow on the chart.



Gold Short Selling Conclusion:

In short, gold is setting up for a low risk entry point that should allow us to profit from lower gold prices. Using an inverse ETF like DZZ or even the gold mining stock inverse ETF DUST could be played. These funds go up in value as the price of gold falls.

While I expect gold to pullback, I do not think it will make another leg lower. Instead, a test of the recent low or pierce of the low by a few bucks then reverse and start building a bullish basing pattern before going higher.

From our trading partner Chris Vermeulen.

Click here to get his Book, free of charge, and "Learn How To Manage Your Trades, Money & Emotions"

Get a free sample of Chris' Trade Ideas

Monday's Earnings Reports.....Atlas Pipeline Partners [APL] and Ensco [ESV]

Atlas Pipeline Partners (NYSE: APL) today reported adjusted earnings before interest, income taxes, depreciation and amortization ("Adjusted EBITDA"), of $67.7 million for the first quarter of 2013, driven primarily by a continued increase in volumes across the Partnership's gathering and processing systems. Processed natural gas volumes averaged 1,033 million cubic feet per day ("MMCFD"), a 63% increase over the first quarter of 2012.

Distributable Cash Flow was $43.5 million for the first quarter of 2013, or $0.67 per average common limited partner unit, compared to $35.2 million for the prior year's first quarter. The Partnership recognized a net loss of $27.5 million for the first quarter of 2013, which included a $26.6 million loss on the early retirement of the Partnership's 8.75% Senior Notes due 2018, compared with net income of $6.5 million for the prior year first quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA and Distributable Cash Flow are non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to their most directly comparable GAAP measures in the tables included at the end of this news release. The Partnership believes these measures provide a more accurate comparison of the operating results for the periods presented......Read the entire Atlas Pipeline Partners earnings report.

Ensco plc (NYSE: ESV) reported diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of $1.36 in first quarter 2013, compared to $1.20 per share in first quarter 2012. Discontinued operations primarily related to rigs and other assets no longer on the Company’s balance sheet resulted in a loss of $0.05 per share a year ago. Diluted earnings per share increased 18% year to year to $1.36 from $1.15 in first quarter 2012.

Earnings increased $52 million to $317 million and operating income grew 17% to $402 million on record revenues of $1.150 billion in first quarter 2013. These increases were driven by a $28,000 increase in the average day rate and a 6% increase in floater rig days as new rigs were added to the active fleet......Read the entire Ensco earnings report.

Make sure to catch all of Doc Severson's video series and download the PDF's while the links still work....

"The NEW Roadmap to Consistent Monthly Income"

Download the "NEW" Iron Condor Trading Strategy

Ever wonder why 70% of mutual fund managers can't beat the S&P?