Here is Some Potential Mega Trades For Q4

It seems to me that we are at an inflection point in the economy. The government has blown pretty much all of its money and the economic recovery and the economy is still sputtering along. No surprise there.

So what’s going to happen? We believe that we’ll have another economic downturn which is going to push the dollar to new lows, push gold to new highs, and push the equity markets back down to their March lows.

Yes, I know it’s a scary scenario but that’s what could potentially happen. We are just looking for one or two more pieces to fall into place and then we could see the unfolding of a very dramatic set of economic conditions here in the United States.

This new video looks at gold, the dollar, and the S&P 500. I believe if you’re interested in your economic future you need to watch this video.

Just Click Here to watch the video, and as always our videos are free to view and do not require any registration. If you think this is an important video, I strongly suggest you share with your friends and comment about it on our blog.

Crude Oil Trades Below $70 After Falling on Recovery Concern

Crude oil traded below $70 a barrel in New York after falling on concern that oil demand in the U.S., the biggest energy consuming nation, will be slow to rebound after the jobless rate increased. Oil prices dropped as much as 3.5 percent on Oct. 2 after the U.S. lost more jobs than estimated in September. Economist Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said Oct. 3 that stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.

“There was weak data coming out of the U.S. and equity markets were weaker,” Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone today. “It’s all pointing downwards.” Crude oil for November delivery traded at $69.88 a barrel, down 7 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 10 a.m. Singapore time.....Read the entire article

Commodities Consolidate as Economic Outlook is Mixed

Crude oil price plunged to as low as 68.32 Friday as the US Labor Department reported disappointing employment data for September. Investors worried the pace of economic recovery will be delayed and thus took profits from long positions in oil. Although buying interest emerged afterward, WTI crude oil settled -1.2% at 69.95 during the day. On weekly basis, the benchmark contract gained +6%. After plummeting to the lower end of recent trading range of 65-75, oil price recovered in the middle of the week although the US Energy Department reported larger than expected crude builds in the week ended September 25.

Investors used the surprising draw in gasoline stockpile, lower than expected rise in distillate stockpiles and rise in fuel demand as reasons to bid up prices. However, we retain out views that crude oil price will continue move range bounded in coming weeks and occasional rise in demand does not alter the fact that fuel consumptions remain in depressed levels. Gasoline demand rose to 9.126M bpd last week, representing increases of +3.8% on weekly basis and +4.5% on annual basis. However, Exxon's CEO said that gasoline demand has already peaked in 2007 and will decline into the futures. In the US, oil product demand was 20M bpd in 2007 and should fall to about 17M bpd by 2020.....Read the entire article and charts!

So You Think It's Time to Buy UNG? Let's go to The Chart!

In all of my years of trading I have never seen so much attention given to natural gas by the retail investor. Nat gas has been trading at historic low prices recently so it must be ready to skyrocket, right? Well for you traders out there that like me are old enough to remember the sugar market of many years ago, you have to admit natural gas and especially UNG is starting to show some similarities.

So where is UNG headed? Let's see what our MarketClub tools tell us....

UNG Smart Scan Chart Analysis is showing a downtrend with Up arrow, meaning there is some near term rallying power. However, this market remains in the confines of a longer term downtrend Downtrend, trade with tight money management stops.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -75 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10.....Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15.....New 3 Day Low on Thursday
-20.....Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
+25.....New 3 Week High, Week Ending October 3rd
-30.....New 3 Month Low in September
-75.....Total Score



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How to Invest in Oil & Gas Stocks

Investing in oil and gas stocks is actually quite simple, even if you don’t know anything about the energy industry. (My friends in Calgary would say I am living proof of that.)

From my experience in speaking with management teams and reading research reports, I’ve put together a basic information list for retail investors doing initial research into oil & gas companies. It’s not exhaustive, but the answers should provide the basic information to decide if you want to do more due diligence.

Either call management, or go to the company’s website and look at its corporate presentation. The Top 10 bits of information I want to find out initially is:

1. How many barrels of oil per day (bopd, or “boe” for natural gas – barrels of oil equivalent) is the company producing, and how quickly have they grown production in each of the last 3 quarters.
2. How much of their production is oil and how much is natural gas (gas prices are very low right now and doesn’t produce much if any cash flow for companies)
3. How much net cash or net debt do they have? This industry uses a lot of debt, so if a company actually has net cash, they could grow more quickly because they have an entire untapped line of credit waiting to go drilling, and grow the business. And of course no debt means no debt payments and flexibility in doing business......Read the entire article

Just Click Here to visit Keith Schaefer's Oil & Gas Investments Bulletin

Natural Gas Fund Issues First New Shares Since July

U.S. Natural Gas Fund, the largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, issued 7 million new shares today, the first new units for the ETF since July because of regulatory efforts to limit market speculation. The new shares, worth $79 million, are backed by a total return swap with an investment grade counterparty, the fund said on its Web site. The Alameda, California based ETF, known as UNG, has said it would offer new shares starting Sept. 28 to purchasers who bought creation baskets of 100,000 units, which are then sold on the open market.

“UNG continues to work to re-balance the existing portfolio of natural gas exposure by using a range of suitable investments including listed futures contracts, listed cleared swaps, as well as over the counter total return swaps,” John Hyland, the fund’s chief investment officer, said in an e-mail. The $4 billion fund grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million shares outstanding before it ran out in July. The fund backs its shares with natural gas contracts or swaps, and has been unable to expand its fuel holdings on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the Intercontinental Exchange.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Bulls Seem to Have The Advantage, Natural Gas Closes Sharply Higher

Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.

If November extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 73.58 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 68.32 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 71.39
Second resistance is September's high crossing at 73.58

First support is today's low crossing at 68.32
Second support is last week's low crossing at 65.05

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Natural gas closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.725. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.471 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If November renews last month's rally, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 5.320 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 4.99
Second resistance the 50nq % retracement level at 5.32

First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.42
Second support is today's low crossing at 4.35

It Does Not Matter Which way the market is Moving....How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market

The Your keywordU.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.10. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If December extends this week's rally, September's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. If December renews September's decline, monthly support crossing at 75.73 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.73
Second resistance is September's high crossing at 79.29

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 76.22
Second resistance is monthly support crossing at 75.73

Natural Gas Fund, UNG, Says New Share Creation Tougher Than Expected

The U.S. Natural Gas Fund,UNG,the largest exchange traded fund in the fuel, has found it more difficult than expected to create units using a new process that has purchasers trade natural gas swaps for shares. The Alameda, California based fund has gotten inquiries from market makers and hedge funds, said Jim Stegall, manager of institutional sales for the fund. Many investors prefer swaps of a few weeks or less, while the fund wants six month swaps.

“The vast majority hear that and they don’t want anything to do with that,” Stegall said. The complex swaps for shares creation process may take several weeks, he said.
The $3.9 billion fund grew 11 fold since the start of the year to 347.4 million shares outstanding before it ran out in July. The fund backs its shares with natural gas contracts.....read the entire article

Can you learn to trade crude oil in just 90 seconds?

Atilla's "Reinforcing Gravity of Price Time Continuum"

As most of my regular readers know I am staying near term bearish on the whole oil and nat gas sector, I still see 58 before 100. And from time to time I like to share the work of some of my favorite bears, don't worry when we are in a bull market I will share the work of my favorite bulls.

Here is a couple of current charts reflecting the work of one of my favorite bears Atilla at the xtrenders website. Check it out and please feel free to leave a comment and our readers know what you are thinking.

$OSX - Oil and Gas Drillers / Monthly


$XOI - Oil Index
Due to the short history of Oil Index ($XOI), I prefer to analyze one of its major and historical component, Exxon. / monthly


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Oil Declines as U.S. Cuts More Jobs Than Forecast, Stocks Drop

Crude oil dropped, tracking global equity markets, after a report showed the jobless rate in America climbed to a 26 year high in September. Oil snapped two days of increases as equities slumped around the world. U.S. employers cut more jobs than forecast last month, according to a Labor Department report, raising concern that consumer spending won’t increase fuel demand. Crude is still set for a weekly increase after gasoline supplies dropped unexpectedly.

“Economic indicators are very important and there is still a lot of speculation on what oil demand will be next year,” Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich in Vienna, said before the jobs report. “Equity markets are declining and the crude market is declining as well.” Crude oil for November delivery dropped as much as $1.96, or 2.8 percent, to $68.86 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.....read the entire article

Globally Off Balance with Phil Flynn

Globally off balance and no, I am not talking about Mahmoud Ahamadineajad, though I could be. No, what I am talking about is a perceived imbalance in the strength of the US economic recovery and the perceived strength of the recovery in the rest of the world. Yesterday the global commodity markets were knocked for a loop when it was reported that the Chicago Purchasing Manager report came out a lot worse than expected and that the ADP jobs report is still showing labor weakness. What made matters worse is it came out after stronger than expected economic readings in the UK, Germany, Australia, New Zealand and good readings in Japan and China.

This raised concerns that the US is lagging the rest of the world is in a rebound phase and may force the US to be kept on the stimulus lifeline longer than some of the others. This imbalance on the last day of the quarter helped smash the dollar and sent money scrambling to find a place to profit or at the very least seek cover. It is obvious that today’s economic data, especially today’s ISM Manufacturing number, should be determining the next big.....read the entire article

Crude Oil Declines on Concern U.S. Economic Recovery May Stall

Crude oil declined, paring this week’s gain, as a gauge of U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly fell, jobless claims rose and a stronger dollar bolstered skepticism about the recovery in the biggest energy consuming nation. Oil snapped two days of increases after the number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits climbed and a report showed manufacturing dropped lower than projected by economists. Oil also fell as the dollar rose to a three week high against the euro.

“Commodities overall took a hit from that negative turn in macro sentiment, combined with the advancing dollar,” said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at CWA Global Markets PTY in Sydney. Crude oil for November delivery dropped as much as 72 cents, or 1 percent, to $70.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $70.14 at 8:54 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract rose 21 cents to settle at $70.82.....read the entire article

Why it Pays to Think Small About Oil

It’s clear that a good investor should have some exposure to oil and gas. But you need to know where to look – and here it pays to think small, not big. There’s a problem with buying into the oil majors, such as BP and Shell. They sell so much of the stuff each day that they a face a continual, expensive challenge to replenish their reserves. But small explorers are not in this position. This is of real significance to you as an investor. Let me explain…

If a small explorer makes a good oil discovery it does not simply offset the oil that it’s selling. Instead, it takes them from a position of having no oil and consequently, a very uncertain outlook into one where they have a profitable long term future. So shareholders who look to small explorers can make big money. But where exactly should you be looking?

For me, the crucial factor is whether the explorer’s license area has the potential to host a really major reserve. That is why I like Kurdistan, home of
Gulf Keystone (GKP) which this week further increased the estimated size of its Shaikan find – and Sterling Energy (SEY). I also like the Falklands, where the licence holders are Borders & Southern (BOR), Desire (DES), Rockhopper (RKH) and Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL)......read the entire article

Oil Price Has Little Change Depsite IMF's Upgrades

Hovering around 70, the benchmark contract for crude oil changes little ahead of US opening. IMF's upgrades on economic forecasts and OPEC's production cut in September are bullish factors but investors probably feel nervous to push oil higher after the +5.8% rally yesterday.

IMF forecasts world economy will expand +3.1% in 2010, compared with +3.1% projected in July, as driven by growths of +9% and +6.4% in China and India respectively. As stated in the report, 'the recovery has started and financial markets are healing...'in most countries, growth will be positive for the rest of the year, as well as in 2010'. However, 'to sustain the recovery, private consumption and investment will have to strengthen as high public spending and large fiscal deficits are unwound'.

For OECDs, GDP in the US, Japan and the Eurozone are anticipated to rise by +1.5%, +1.7% and +0.3%. All of these estimates have been revised upward from Julys' projections. According to Bloomberg's estimates, OPEC's crude production declined 50K bpd from August to 28.395M bpd in September as led by reductions in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Angola. For the 11 members (excluding Iraq) that are subject to quota, total output dropped -10K bpd to 26.045M bpd in September, though the production was still higher than the target.....read the entire article and charts!

Oil Poised to Test Resistance in the Mid $70s

Crude oil is poised to enter a “bullish channel” and test resistance at the mid $70 a barrel level after rising the most in almost six months yesterday. If prices close above $71.55 a barrel, oil is set to test resistance at $75.89, according to a technical analysis by Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania.

Crude oil for November delivery rose $3.90, or 5.9 percent, to settle at $70.61 a barrel yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. “If you are bearish you’ve got a problem right now,” said Schork. “If the channel holds we’ll get a re test of the low to mid-$70s, which is where resistance has held since the summer”.....read the entire article

Crude Oil Technical Analysis From Oil N Gold

Crude oil's price powerfully pushed yesterday, after the release of inventory fundamentals touching the key resistance level at almost 70.90, which forms a support level for the main breached ascending channel, previously. However, reaching this level will be accompanied by the stochastic entering an overbought areas ; thus, making us expect for today, a downside move on an intraday basis where its first main targets are around 68.00, requiring trading to remain below level 70.90, essentially. The trading range for today is among the key support at 66.20 and the key resistance at 73.15. The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.....Read the entire article

Oil Declines on Concerns U.S. Economy Struggling to Recover

Crude oil in New York fell after an unexpected drop in U.S. business activity and as companies cut more jobs than estimated, adding to concerns over the pace of revival in fuel demand in the biggest energy consuming nation.

Crude oil pared some of yesterday’s 5.9 percent gain after the Institute for Supply Management Chicago Inc.’s business barometer trailed economists’ estimates. Companies in the U.S. cut payrolls by a greater than forecast 254,000 jobs, a report from ADP Employer Services showed, indicating the labor market will be slow to recover.

“The poor economic news suggests oil should not go too much higher in price, because the U.S. economy is not improving as quickly as hoped,” Mike Sander, an investment adviser at Sander Capital in Seattle, said in an e-mail. “The economy is still in dire shape”.....read the entire article

Crude Oil Chart Damage Appears to be Repaired, For Now

Crude oil closed up $3.58 at $70.29 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The big gains today were supported by a bullish weekly storage report from the DOE, from a lower U.S. dollar and by the recent heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear ambitions. Recent serious chart damage was mostly repaired today.

Natural gas closed down 3.8 cents at $4.837 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Prices are still in a three week old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have upside technical momentum. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of $5.133.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 41 points at 76.94 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 79.00.

Crude Oil Price Reacted Mildly Positive to Less Than Expected Distiallte Stock Gain

Crude oil inventory rose +2.8 mmb, compared with consensus of +2 mmb increase, to 338.4 mmb in the week ended September 29. The good thing is Cushing stock recorded significant drop of -1.5 mmb. Situation in oil product stockpiles was better than previously anticipated. Gasoline inventory drew -1.66 mmb while distillate inventory gained only +0.32 mmb. Both readings beat market expectations.

WTI crude oil price changes little after the report, only edging slightly higher to 67.5 from 66.5 before the release. Investors probably need to gauge the implications of a higher crude build with lower distillate build. Heating oil bounces to 1.71 while RBOB gasoline rises to 1.65 after the report. Lack of positive response from investors was also driven by disappointing US employment data and Chicago PMI. ADP reported -254K decline in employment in September following a -277K drop in the prior month. The market had expected.....Read the entire article

Bloomberg Analysis: Oil’s Sideways Trend Points to $70 Breakout

Crude oil has a greater chance of rising above $70 a barrel the longer it stays in the sideways pattern that has characterized trading in the past two months, according to National Australia Bank Ltd. Oil has been locked in a band of $65 to $75 a barrel since the start of August as traders weighed optimism over the prospects for a recovery in global demand against a supply glut. As the market has held its floor, prices will soon rise, said Gordon Manning, a Sydney based analyst, citing technical charts.

“The longer we’re in a sideways pattern, when we do break out, potentially the more powerful it’s going to be,” Manning said in an interview. “I wouldn’t be surprised to see that sort of ‘kick’ from around these current levels back up to about $70. There’s more of a risk of a $3 rally than a $3 fall from here”.....Read the entire article