Crude Oil Closes and Consolidates Above 20 Day Moving Average

Crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.95. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extends the rally off this month's low, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09.

Natural gas closed lower on Monday but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.470. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.620 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.108 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.620. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 4.288. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.108.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Monday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average high crossing at 83.65. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 84.68. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 82.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-June rally crossing at 82.15.

Gold closed lower on Monday and below the 38% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 1183.90. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but turning bearish again signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 1168.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1217.90 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1199.80. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1217.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1176.90. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1168.00.

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Phil Flynn: When Irish Eyes Are Crying

A downgrade of Irish debt, an oil spill in China and two storm systems down in the Atlantic that bear watching has oil being pulled in different directions. The tug and pull between bearish and bullish forces has oil bouncing in both directions. Now with a whole plate of earnings ahead of us, the dollar and the stock market will be our guide unless of course things get nasty weather wise down south. Overnight Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's sovereign debt rating to Aa2 from Aa1because of what they say is the government's "gradual but significant loss of financial strength."

Moody says that Ireland’s weakening debt affordability, lower economic growth prospects due to the severe downturn in the banking and real estate sectors, as well as liabilities from the bailout of the banking sector all contributed to the downgrade. At first oil broke on this news as it was feared that this downgrade might hit Europe and what is perceived as Euro Zone stability. Yet oil came back as Moody's at the same time lifted the ratings outlook on Irish government debt to stable from negative and said that the risks are now evenly balanced at the new lower rating standard.

Besides we all knew that Ireland was in danger of a downgrade in the first place. Don’t cry over spilled milk but I guess you can cry over spilled oil. The latest oil spill is in China.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Is the Euro on Shaky Ground?

In this short video we take an in depth look at the euro and its relationship to the US dollar. The recent sharp rally in the euro, up from the 1.19 level, may be coming to an end.

We look at several indicators that are close to confirming that this market may be set to head lower.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 75.53. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday morning is 76.14

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.474. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.621 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.621
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.923

Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.550

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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This Weeks Gold, Crude Oil and SP500 Trading Patterns

It was an interesting options expiration week for equities that’s for sure. We saw some very choppy price action with large waves of buying and selling as the bulls and bears fought for control.

Both Gold and Oil closed lower for the week which is not a good sign considering the US Dollar dropped like a rock along with them. Below are a few of my charts

GLD – Gold ETF Price Action

Gold continues to pull back from the June highs. It looks as though it could form an ABC retrace pattern if the July 7th low is broken. If $1085 is broken we should see gold drop to $1065-75 level. On the GLD etf that would be around the $112.50 – $113.50 level. That should shake out the majority of weak positions and start to rally towards the $1250/60 level.

Crude Oil – USO Oil Fund

This is a weekly chart of oil which clearly shows how selling volume has risen and the trend since 2009 has gone up, sideways and is now heading back down. The bear flag forming on this weekly chart looks about ready for another leg down. Once that occurs we could see a test of the 2009 lows.

Using some "inter market" analysis crude oil tends to move in the opposite direction of the US Dollar. From a quick glance at the dollar chart is looks about ready to bounce which will send oil sharply lower. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds over the next 2-3 weeks.

SP500 – SPY Index Fund

Friday we saw some the SP500 sell off on heavy volume after testing its 50 and 200 day moving averages which are key levels for trading and investors to take profits or add to their short positions in hope for another multi day sell off.

That being said, there is still a good change of higher prices and for all we know this could be the start of another multi month rally. While I am more inclined for us to play the down side this week I will not have a problem taking a long position if we start to see the market internals and breadth improve alone with bullish price action. I monitor the 60, 30 and 10 minute charts which allow me to get a feel for the overall short term trend and strength.

Weekend Trading Conclusion:

Overall it looks like we could have a couple more days of weakness for stocks and commodities. The US Dollar is very much oversold and as of this writing it looks like its starting a small bounce. A rising dollar tends to put downward pressure on gold and oil along with the large multi national companies.

Equities sold off Friday with a slow grind down from 9:30 -4pm never putting in any type of bounce when looking at the 60 minute chart. The SP500 and other indexes are way over sold after Friday and I am expecting some follow through Monday as investors review the charts over the weekend and see what happened on Friday. That should cause another wave of selling in the morning as traders panic out of positions.

It’s going to be an exciting week for sure!

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Crude Oil Drops a Fourth Day Amid Concern Slow Recovery Will Hurt Demand

Crude oil declined for a fourth day in New York after confidence among U.S. consumers slumped, adding to concerns a recovery in fuel demand may falter in the biggest energy consuming nation. Oil dropped after the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index for July fell to 66.5 from 76 in June, the lowest level since August. The gauge was projected to fall to 74, according to a survey of economists by Bloomberg News.

Crude oil for August delivery dropped as much as 51 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $75.50 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $75.74 at 8:27 a.m. Sydney time. The contract fell 61 cents to $76.01 on July 16. Futures have declined 8.2 percent since the start of the year. U.S. equities dropped on July 16 after the slump in consumer confidence and lower than estimated revenue at companies from Bank of America Corp. to General Electric Co. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 2.9 percent.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported last week that its general economic index fell to 5.1 in July from 19.6 the prior month. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index declined to 5.1 this month, the lowest level since August 2009, from 8 in June. Brent crude oil for September settlement fell 72 cents, or 0.9 percent on July 16, to end the session at $75.37 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be reached at mshenk1@bloomberg.net Ben Sharples at bsharples@bloomberg.net


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Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook

Crude oil edged higher to 78.15 last week but failed to sustain gain there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. While another rise cannot be ruled out with 74.23 minor support intact. We'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 79.38 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 74.23 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 71.09 will confirm that fall from 79.38 has resumed. Also this will affirm our view that choppy recovery from 64.23 has completed at 79.38 already and should target 64.23 support next.

In the bigger picture, recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 and has possibly completed at 79.38 already. Break of 71.09 support will indicate that decline from 87.15 is likely resuming. This will also revive the bearish case that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. In such case, we'd see another fall to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least.

In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

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Phil Flynn: Capped!

Great News for the oil industry and all of America and the world! The leak in the Gulf is capped! Finally for the first time since the Deep Water Horizon exploded back in April there is no oil leaking from that deepwater well. Still BP and the government are not celebrating just yet. The company still is worried that higher pressure inside the well could cause of explosions in other parts of the pipeline and is monitoring the well by checking pressure every 6 hours. Let’s keep our fingers crossed and say a prayer.

Of course what traders really want to know if the upside in oil is capped? Over the last few days the oil market seems to have taken a leadership role in leading the stock market higher and the rest of the world lower. As of late oil traders are taking a more skeptical take on the global economic recovery because despite the slew of good feelings that permeated the marketplace to start the week in the oil patch the facts just does not back those gushy feelings up. The week of old fashion supply and demand fundamentals for the oil market does not bode well for the upside of the oil market or for the economic recovery over all.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Falls for Third Day on Concern Slowing Economic Recovery to Cut Demand

Crude oil fell for a third day in New York on speculation that the U.S. economic recovery is slowing, reducing fuel demand in the world’s biggest energy consuming country. Oil slipped as much as 1.6 percent and equities tumbled after an index of preliminary consumer sentiment declined to the lowest level since 2009. Prices retreated yesterday as manufacturing in New York and Pennsylvania dropped, part of a nationwide decline in factory production of 0.4 percent in June.

“Oil should be a lot lower than it is,” said Peter Beutel, president of trading advisory company Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “We’ve had some very bearish stuff come out about the economy this week.” Crude oil for August delivery slipped 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $76.20 a barrel at 10:57 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are little changed this week. Brent crude oil for September settlement fell 63 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $75.46 on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Oil in New York has traded in a range of $8.29 for the past month, from $71.09 to $79.38 a barrel. “We’re stuck in a $70 to $80 range and looking for a strong signal to exit it in either direction,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “It will take evidence that the recovery is gathering momentum to move us higher, and any signs pointing to continued sluggishness and weak demand will move us lower”.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentary For Friday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.07. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 76.54

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above the 10 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.650 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 4.623
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.650

Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning 4.499

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 4.288
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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New Video: Did the "Death Cross" Die, or is it Still Alive in the S&P 500?

The sharp upward rally in the S&P 500 surprised many people, myself included. However, the rally did not change the "Death Cross" which we pointed out as being a negative and significant market event that does not occur very often.

This market's rally also did not change our weekly and monthly "Trade Triangles" which are still red and indicating that the trend is headed lower.

In this short two minute video, we show you some other aspects of the S&P 500 that we think you should be watching. As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

We would love to hear your comments about this or any of our other market videos.

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New Video: EUO, What is it and Where's it Headed?

Here's an ETF that you may want to take a look at....

We just finished a new short video on an ETF that's looking very interesting. The video runs a little over two minutes and gets right to the meat and potatoes of this market.

This particular ETF is leveraged and trades almost 2,000,000 shares a day, so it is nice and liquid. What makes this ETF so interesting, is that it plays such a big part on the financial world stage.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

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Crude Oil Consolidates Above 20 Day Moving Average, Natural Gas Extends Decline

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 78.15
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Thursday morning is 77.19

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.667 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.494
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.667

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday morning is 4.333

First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.301
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Crude Oil Pares Losses as U.S. Inventory Drops More Than Analysts Forecast

Crude oil fluctuated, rebounding from earlier losses, after a U.S. government report showed that inventories declined three times as much as expected last week and refineries bolstered operating rates to a two year high. Supplies fell 5.06 million barrels, or 1.4 percent, to 353.1 million, the most since September, according to the Energy Department. Stockpiles were forecast to slip 1.5 million barrels, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Refineries operated at 90.5 percent of capacity, the highest level since January 2008.

“A 5 million draw in crude oil supplies is pretty bullish any way you look at it,” said Carl Larry, president of Oil Outlooks and Opinions LLC in Houston. “The outlook for prices is still higher, unless the economy continues to just trudge along.” Crude oil for August delivery rose 2 cents to $77.17 a barrel at 11:10 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil traded at $76.62 before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Brent crude for August settlement increased 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $76.88 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. August Brent futures expire tomorrow. The more active September contract rose 10 cents to $76.83 a barrel.

Retail Sales Drop

Prices also dropped as sales at U.S. retailers fell in June for a second month, indicating the pace of economic recovery moderated heading into the second half of 2010. Purchases decreased a more than projected 0.5 percent following a 1.1 percent May drop, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Retail sales were projected to fall 0.3 percent after a 1.2 percent drop previously reported for May, according to the median estimate of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

Excluding auto dealers, demand fell 0.1 percent, matching the median forecast of economists surveyed. Industrial production in the 16-member euro region increased less than forecast in May as the economy struggled to gather strength. Output climbed 0.9 percent from the previous month, when it also increased 0.9 percent, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists forecast output to rise 1.2 percent, according to the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Reporter Mark Shenk can be contacted at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.23. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If August extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 79.38 is the next upside target. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25 would temper the near term friendly outlook.

First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 77.37
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 76.26

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 74.25
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 71.09

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Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.706 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.529
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.706

Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.392

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 4.334
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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"Battle tested" trading veteran Adam Hewison and his team are allowing me to offer you TWO complimentary weeks of their service so you can see how much it can truly help your trading.

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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 74.45. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.19
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 75.30

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.752 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.553
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.752

Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.398

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.339
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

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Phil Flynn: A Penny Saved Is A Penny Earned

A penny saved is a penny earned but enough about copper let's talk aluminum. Alcoa set a good tone for the energy markets as they kicked off the earnings season with some better than expected numbers. Yesterday oil prices fell back as the market awaited earnings from Alcoa yet it seems that they were worried about nothing. The Wall Street Journal said, “Alcoa swung to a profit in the second quarter on improved demand and prices after the aluminum producer struggled with anemic prices for the metal a year earlier. Although the price of aluminum has fallen about 12% in 2010, Alcoa offset that drop with a jump in volume, driving a 6% sequential increase to higher than expected revenue.

It also said that better productivity, foreign exchange benefits and lower energy costs contributed to the revenue climb. The top and bottom line growth was driven by higher volumes from stronger end markets and ccontinued gains from our productivity programs," according to Chairman and Chief Executive Klaus Kleinfeld.” The good earnings results set a nice tone and oil responded as it will to the slew of other numbers ahead of us. The market may also focus on the latest report from the International Energy Agency. The IEA, in their latest report, says they expect world oil demand in 2011 to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day. At the same time they expect the demand from China to slow.....Read the entire article.

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New Video: Is it Time for the Dollar Index to Rally?

The dollar index, which put in a strong performance in the first six months of the year, pulled back from its recent highs and appears to be in defensive mode.

If you are not familiar with the US dollar index (USDX), it is an index, or measure, of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. Its weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value is compared with these currencies in the following percentages:

* Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
* Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
* Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
* Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
* Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight
* Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight

In this short educational video, we point out what we see in the dollar index and the reason why we think a potential rally may be in the foreseeable future.

As always our videos are free to watch and there is no need for registration. If you'd like to make a comment on this or any of our videos, we enjoy hearing your thoughts.


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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market Commentary For Monday Morning

Crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 70.93 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.27
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 79.38

Crude oil's pivot point for Monday is 75.86

First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 71.09
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 70.93

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Natural gas was lower overnight and is poised to extend last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If August extends the decline off June's high, the reaction low crossing at 4.285 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.786 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.588
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.786

Natural gas pivot point for Monday is 4.399

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.339
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.285

New Video: How To Use Fibonacci Retracements

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