Chinese Refining Price Increases, California Says No To New Drilling

"Crude Oil Rises as Chinese Refineries Increase Processing Rates"
Crude oil rose after a report showed that Chinese refineries bolstered processing rates for the first time in five months, signaling the government’s economic stimulus measures improved fuel demand. China refined 29.4 million metric tons of crude, or about 6.92 million barrels a day, in March, the China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said in a statement today. That’s up 0.7 percent from a year earlier. U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses....Complete Story

"California Officials Say No to New Offshore Drilling"
California officials expressed unanimous opposition Thursday to new offshore oil and gas drilling in a meeting U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar held to gauge public sentiment on the issue. Opening the California coast to drilling for oil and natural gas would be an environmental and economic disaster for the state, said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. The most populous U.S. state relies on tourism, recreation and other coastal industries....Complete Story

"Norway Oil Industry Seen At Risk If New Areas Not Opened"
Norway's oil and gas production and industry risk going into serious decline by the mid-2020s if a ban on exploration in unexplored offshore areas in the North isn't lifted quickly, oil chiefs say. Combined oil and gas production from Norway, the second-biggest gas exporter to Europe after Russia, and the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, is at a peak that operators hope to sustain until at least 2015, while stemming the decline beyond that....Complete Story


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Bears Seem To Have Term Advantage On Crude Oil

May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, the line in the sand, is 856.25

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 points. at 861.40 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

If June renews Monday's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.


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Crude Oil Closes Higher On Choppy Trading

May crude oil closed up $0.69 at $49.94 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today in quieter trading. Trading has turned choppy. A potentially bearish descending triangle pattern is in place on the daily bar chart. Crude oil bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

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The June U.S. dollar index closed up 10 points at 85.46 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.

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The June S&P 500 futures index closed up 13.20 at 861.70. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine week high. The June Dow futures closed up 80 points at 8,060. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh nine week high today.


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Crude Rises On Jobless Claims, Petrobras Seeks Additional Rigs

"Crude Oil Rises After Unexpected Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims"
Crude oil rose after the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the pace of economic decline may be slowing. Oil climbed as much as 2.5 percent after the Labor Department reported that claims decreased by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January. China, the biggest oil consumer after the U.S., grew 6.1 percent during the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost 10 years....Complete Story

"Petrobras Seeks New Rigs, Marches On With Expansion Plan"
Petrobras will start seeking bids for new rigs in the next couple of months as it marches on with its ambitious five-year investment plan. The Brazilian state energy giant in January announced it planned to invest $174.4 billion in 2009-13, including $28.6 billion this year -- an increase from $23 billion in 2008, which is unusual as global oil majors including U.S. firms Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are cutting back on investment....Complete Story

"Total, China In Venezuela Oil Talks"
France's Total, China National Petroleum Corp and Petroleos de Venezuela are in advanced talks about a deal to produce and refine Venezuelan oil to send to China, the Wall Street Journal reported. Senior officials from all three groups plan to meet in Caracas next month to discuss a possible multi billion dollar accord, the paper said on Wednesday, citing people close to the talks.
The 20 year venture could see 200,000 barrels of oil a day shipped to China possibly starting in 2013....Complete Story


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Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Closes Near The Session Lows Again

May crude oil closed up $0.12 at $49.53 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Trading has turned choppy. A bearish weekly DOE storage report did limit gains in crude and kept prices under pressure most of the day. Crude oil bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed but nearer their session highs today following more weak U.S. economic data. However, there were some minor positives in the data that gave stock traders some confidence the worst of the economic crisis is past. Stock index futures prices are still in uptrends from the March lows.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 32 points at 85.25 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.


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Crude Oil falls As Supplies Rise, OPEC Cuts Forcast

"Crude Oil Falls As U.S. Supplies Rise To The Highest Since 1990"
Crude oil fell after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years as demand dropped. Inventories rose 5.67 million barrels to 366.7 million last week, the highest since September 1990, the Energy Department said today....Complete Story

"Energy Stocks Experience Difficult First Quarter"
The S&P 500 Index experienced an 11.7% loss for the first quarter of 2009 while the index's Energy sector generated a slightly worse quarterly performance with a 12.1% loss. Of the S&P 500's ten industry sectors, only Technology produced a positive investor return....Complete Story

"OPEC Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast As World Economy Contracts"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand this year for an eighth successive month as the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest oil consumers worsens. The estimate for 2009 global demand was lowered by 430,000 barrels a day....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Will Equities Bring Oil Down?

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's daily pivot point is 845, weekly pivot is 837.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 833.84.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 839.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to extend Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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10:30 AM ET. Apr 10..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 361M)

.....Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.1M; previous +1.6M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.4M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous +656K)

.....Distillate Stocks (previous 140.7M)

.....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -3.3M)

.....Refinery Usage (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

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Crude Oil Falls On Weak Retail Numbers, OPEC Thwarted By Brazil and Russia

"Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop"
Crude oil fell after a report showed that retail sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, unexpectedly declined in March. The oil market retreated after the Commerce Department reported that sales dropped 1.1 percent. Prices paid to U.S. producers decreased in March after two months of gains, a Labor Department report showed....Complete Story

"World Awash in Oil: Demand Lacking Says IEA"
On Friday the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global oil demand by one million barrels per day (b/d) to 83.4 million b/d. That means the world will be using approximately 2.4 million b/d less than in 2008, or roughly a 3% decline from a year ago. This matches the first year decline experienced during the 1979-1983 period, but the IEA does not....Complete Story

"OPEC Cuts Thwarted as Brazil, Russia Grab U.S. Market"
As OPEC nations make their biggest oil production cuts on record, Brazil, Russia and the U.S. are pumping more, threatening to send crude back below $50 a barrel as demand slows. U.S. imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 818,000 barrels a day, or 14 percent, to 5.02 million in January from a year earlier....Complete Story

"Qatar Energy Minister Says Oil Between $40-50/Barrel Realistic"
Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry Abdullah al-Attiya said on Monday that oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel are realistic under the current global financial crisis. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight On Short Covering

May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 830.56.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.66.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 points. at 851.90 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

If June renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

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4:30 PM ET. Apr 10...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.2M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -451K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.7M)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 81.8%)