Has The Trend Changed For Crude Oil?

Do you need any more proof of where crude oil is headed and where the SP 500 may be following it?

Oil Rises Fourth Day as Stocks, Dollar Outweigh Demand Concern

Crude oil rose for a fourth day, the longest stretch in two months, as advancing equities and a weaker dollar outweighed concern about lower fuel demand.

Oil gained 3.9 percent after better than expected earnings from American Express Co., Ford Motor Co. and Microsoft Corp. sent stocks higher. Prices fell earlier on signs the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries isn’t cutting output fast enough to reduce a supply glut. U.S. crude stockpiles are at their highest in nearly 19 years.

“The strength in equity markets is the main reason oil prices are higher,” said Bill O’Grady, chief markets strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. “We are ignoring incredibly high inventories.”

Crude oil for June delivery rose $1.93 to settle at $51.55 a barrel at 2:50 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 16 percent this year. The June contract declined 1.8 percent this week.....Complete Story


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Schlumberger First Quarter Net Down 30% On Reduced U.S. Drilling

Schlumberger Ltd.'s (SLB) first quarter earnings fell 30% amid plummeting drilling activity, exceeding analysts' pessimistic expectations of a bigger decline amid a sharp drop in drilling activity for oil and gas.

Chief Executive Andrew Gould, however, said Friday in a conference call that Schlumberger would have difficulty replicating its first quarter performance amid lower prices for services and uncertainty in U.S. natural gas drilling.

Gould said Schlumberger's customers are seeking and obtaining lower prices for services. He said the company's first quarter performance would be "extremely difficult" to repeat as those renegotiated prices take hold.

"A lot of price concessions that we have given will flow though in subsequent quarters," Gould said.

Producers have cut back on drilling as low oil and gas prices have left many projects unprofitable and left less cash for those that could make money. Earlier this month, the number of drilling rigs in the U.S. was off by more than half from September to 975, according to Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI), the first drop below 1,000 since 2003....Complete Story


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Crude Advances On Dollar Weakening Against The Euro

Crude oil is trading higher as commodities rise sharply on the dollar trading lower against the Euro in overnight trading. The markets in general are helping oil move higher, but traders all will remain tentative today on news of bank stress test results expected around 2 P.M. est.

Today's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.30.

First resistance is 50.23
Second resistance is 50.85

First support is 48.68
Second support is 47.75

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Bears Still Have Near Term Advantage

June crude oil closed up $0.58 at $49.43 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today. Crude oil bears still have the near term technical advantage. The next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $44.00.

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. Trading has turned choppy this week. Banking worries and bearish corporate earnings reports this week are keeping the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes are "rolling over" on the daily charts, which is a bearish technical clue.

June gold futures closed up $14.50 at $907.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today on short covering and fresh speculative buying and amid a weaker U.S. dollar. Prices did hit a fresh three week high today as bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. Prices are still in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart, however.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 92 points at 85.56 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls are fading quickly. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 87.22.



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Crude Oil Closes Slightly Higher, Florida OK's Drilling Bill, NOV Reports It's largestDecline

"Oil Rises as Dollar Drops, Bolstering Demand for Commodities"
Crude oil rose for a third day in New York as the dollar dropped against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed as much as 2.2 percent as the falling U.S. currency increased demand for crude and precious metals as a hedge against inflation. The U.S. Energy Department reported yesterday that crude stockpiles rose for a seventh week to the highest since September 1990. “There’s a hard asset play due to dollar weakness,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global Inc. in New York. “Until there is firm evidence that the stimulus package is working and the economy is growing....Complete Story

"Florida House Oks Bill to Drill Off Coast"
State lawmakers gave initial approval Tuesday to a bill that could allow offshore drillers a chance to set up rigs within sight of Florida's Gulf of Mexico beaches. A surprise introduction of legislation by Dean Cannon, R- Winter Park, slated to be House leader next year, calls for lifting the state's decades-old ban on rigs and giving the governor and Cabinet authority over proposals for drilling between 3 to 10 miles from shore. Lucrative move or 'pure insanity'? Industry boosters and legislators praised the concept in a meeting of the House Policy Council, calling it potentially lucrative for an economically depressed state and a needed step toward energy independence....Complete Story

"National Oilwell Varco Drops After Pace of New Orders Slumps"
National Oilwell Varco Inc., the largest U.S. maker of oilfield equipment, had its biggest decline this year in New York trading after its pace of new business slowed by more than half for a second straight quarter. The company’s order backlog, which began the year at $11.1 billion, shrank to $9.6 billion in the first quarter, according to a statement today by the Houston-based manufacturer. National Oilwell Varco booked $240 million in new orders, net of $32 million in work that was canceled, down 67 percent from its fourth-quarter pace. Net income rose 18 percent from a year earlier on the strength of past bookings....Complete Story


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Conoco-Phillips Reports 80 Percent Decline In Profits

ConocoPhillips said Thursday its first quarter profit tumbled 80 percent from a year ago as sharply lower crude and natural gas prices walloped results at the nation's third largest oil company.

But the results easily beat Wall Street expectations and Conoco shares rose 3.6 percent, or $1.36, to $39.75. The Houston based company said net income for the January-March period amounted to $840 million, or 56 cents per share, versus $4.14 billion, or $2.62 per share, a year earlier.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of 42 cents a share, on average. Revenue fell 44 percent to $30.7 billion from $54.9 billion a year ago.

ConocoPhillips was the first of the major oil companies to report first-quarter results, which as a whole are expected to be the worst in years as the global economic downturn saps demand for energy. After peaking around $150 in July, the price of crude tumbled....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Struggles At The $50 Level, Unemployment Numbers Weigh On Demand

June crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But higher unemployment numbers may weigh on demand and lower than expected numbers from UPS this morning look to weigh on the entire market.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Today's daily pivot point, our line in the sand is 48.48

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.18.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 51.99.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 46.72.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

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The June Dollar was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.97.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.70.

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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight [Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST.] due to short covering as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The daily pivot point is 844.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 833.00.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.80 points. at 843.60 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.


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Crude Oil Closes Slightly Higher, Bears Still Have Technical Advantage Near Term

June crude oil closed up $0.35 at $48.90 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices are pausing after the big down day on Monday, and this pause is not bullish. Crude oil bears still have the near term technical advantage.

The June U.S. dollar index helped crude oil by closing down 45 points at 86.44 today, closing near the session low's. Bulls still have the slight near term technical advantage, but need to show fresh strength soon to keep it.

The U.S. stock indexes did not help crude oil's cause by closing mostly lower today and near their session lows. Some more banking worries today and bearish corporate earnings reports this week are keeping the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.




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Crude Oil Futures Increase Following U.S. Stock Market Gains, OPEC Prices Slip

"Crude Oil Futures Increase Following U.S. Stock Market Gains"
Crude oil futures rose for a second day as U.S. equities gained and the U.S. dollar dropped. Oil rebounded as the stock market advanced as a gauge of home prices unexpectedly improved and General Electric Co. led a rally in industrial companies. Prices dropped earlier on an Energy Department report that oil inventories rose 3.86 million barrels to 370.6 million, the highest since September 1990. “There are a large number of financial professionals trading oil who are paying more attention to the equity markets and the U.S. dollar, while ignoring the fundamentals of the oil market,” said Tim Evans....Complete Story

"OPEC's Oil Price Slips Below $48.50"
The price for oil produced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shed more than $1 Tuesday, settling at $48.49, the group announced Wednesday.
One barrel (158 liters) of OPEC crude oil was $1.10 lower on Tuesday than on the previous day. The price has dropped by $2.96 since last Friday. The Vienna based cartel calculates an average price based on 12 brands produced by its members....Complete Story

"Statoil’s Arctic Status Threatened as Exxon, Shell Make Bids"
StatoilHydro ASA may see its dominance eroded in Norway’s Arctic as Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc bid in the country’s first frontier oil and natural gas licensing round for three years. Norway has offered 28 complete and partial blocks in the Barents Sea off its northern tip and 51 in the Norwegian Sea, which straddles the Arctic Circle. The permits will be awarded “sometime in the spring,” said Jon Evang, an Oil Ministry spokesman, without being more specific....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Falls On Inventory Gains

Crude oil falls as inventories increased sharply across the board. As of 10:40 EST crude oil is trading below the critical 48.50 level as institutional traders look to defend $45.00 this week. Next target is 1st support at $48.02.


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Crude Oil Lower As Earnings Reports Bring Down The Market's

June crude oil traded higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline. But has traded below 48.0 in pre market trading as financial's weigh on the overall markets.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 45.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Traders appear to be focused on the 48.50 50% retracement level as their line in the sand.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.43.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 52.22.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 48.02.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 45.11.

10:30 AM ET. Apr 17..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 366.7M)

....Crude Oil Stocks(Net Change}(expected+2.5M;previous +5.6M)

....Gasoline Stocks(previous 216.5M)

....Gasoline Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-900K)

....Distillate Stocks(previous 139.6M)

....Distillate Stocks(Net Change)(expected-900K;previous-1.2M)

....Refinery Usage(expected 81%;previous 80.4%)


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The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. Once again it appears the markets are allowing the financial's to take the lead and poor earnings reports this morning from Morgan Stanley are weighing on the market.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand, is 840.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 831.56.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 3.70 points. at 844.00 as of 6:05 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.94.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.61.


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This Week In Crude Oil

Click on image to enlarge.....

Crude Oil Closes Higher After Trading At Six Week Low

June crude oil closed up $0.18 at $48.69 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering following strong losses on Monday. Prices hit a fresh six week low early on today and some near term chart damage has been inflicted this week. Crude oil bears have the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today and nearer their session high on a rebound from solid losses on Monday. Some positive comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner today helped the market. However, a slew of upcoming corporate earnings reports this week will likely keep the bulls tentative. The recent uptrends in the stock indexes will begin to "roll over" on the daily charts and start to produce bearish chart signals if more price weakness occurs this week.

June gold futures closed down $5.80 at $881.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today amid a rebound in the U.S. stock market today. The gold bears still have the overall near term technical advantage. Prices are in a two month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 16 points at 86.82 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls still have the near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 89.00.


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Crude Oil Below $45, SABIC's First Loss, Iran Supports OPEC Cut

"Nymex Crude Falls Below $45 Barrel On Economic Fears, Expiration"
Crude oil futures were down Tuesday, slipping below $45 a barrel on lingering concerns about the U.S. economy.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery was down $1.82, or 4%, at $44.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after falling as low as $43.83 a barrel. June Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange fell $1.37 to $48.49 a barrel.

For the past month, oil prices have held up relatively well, hovering around or above the $50 a barrel mark despite domestic crude supplies swelling to 18 year highs. But crude sliced nearly a tenth off its value Monday, plunging with equity markets as investors worried about the health of U.S. banks, despite a series of better than expected quarterly results....Complete Story

"SABIC Drops After First Quarterly Loss Since 2001"
Saudi Basic Industries Corp., the world’s largest chemicals maker by market value, dropped the most in five months in Riyadh trading after reporting a surprise quarterly loss on slumping demand for plastics and fertilizers.

Sabic fell 9.9 percent to 42 riyals, the biggest decline since Nov. 22. The first quarter net loss was 974 million riyals ($259.7 million) after booking 1.18 billion riyals in goodwill writedowns, the Riyadh based company said today in a statement. The loss is the company’s first since the last quarter of 2001 and misses analyst estimates of 1.02 billion riyals in profit.

The first simultaneous recession for six decades in the U.S., Japan and Germany forced Sabic to slash polyethylene and polypropylene prices and cut its workforce as demand weakened for plastics....Complete Story

"Iran Supports OPEC Output Cut Conditionally"
Iran said on Thursday that it will conditionally support OPEC output cut, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Iran's representative to OPEC Seyyed Mohammad-Ali Khatibi voiced the conditional support to some reporters on the sidelines of an oil gas show in Tehran, MENA said.

"The OPEC decision to cut its output at a meeting in May in Vienna depends on the market condition," Khatibi was quoted as saying, adding "if there is an oversupply of oil (in the market), the output cut will be considered."....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Trading Lower, Breaking Through Critical Levels

Crude oil is trading lower as it extends Monday's breakout to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.61

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 49.15.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 45.19.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

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4:30 PM ET. Apr 17...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +6.5M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -613K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +87K)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 79.9%)

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The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher due to short covering in the overnight trading session as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, but has now moved lower has we near the regular trading session.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.25.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.50 points. at 834.20 as of 5:51 AM CST. But has now sharply sold off [6+ points] before the opening of regular trading hours.

It had appeared that the overnight action set the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.48.


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Crude Oil Closes Lower, Pressured By Dollar and Stocks

June crude oil closed down $4.02 at $48.45 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five week low and saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Crude oil bears have regained the near term technical advantage. A big drop in the stock market today and a stronger U.S. dollar helped to pressure crude oil.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 71 points at 87.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four week high today. Bulls have regained the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today and near their session lows. The bulls faded today and need to show fresh power soon, or else the recent uptrends on the daily charts will begin to "roll over" and start to produce bearish chart signals.

A heavy slate of corporate earnings reports are due out this week and traders will examine them very closely. It's likely that most of those reports will encourage the stock index bears.

Haliburton Profits Tumble, Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks

"Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks as Dollar Gains, Stocks Drop"
Oil fell the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and on speculation supplies will rise as the recession reduces demand.

Oil dropped as the dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro, making crude less attractive as a currency and inflation hedge. An Energy Department report last week showed U.S. crude oil inventories climbed to the highest level since September 1990 as demand dropped.

“The strength of the dollar has prompted a selling in the oil market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We repeatedly shift from concentrating on the fundamentals of high inventories and low demand on one hand and hopes of recovery later this year. The fundamental picture has reasserted itself today.”....Complete Story

"Halliburton 1Q Profit Tumbles, Cuts Jobs"
Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook. It also said it cut more than 2,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.

The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.

A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more — perhaps another 20 to 30 percent — as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand....Complete Story


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Crude Oil Opens Down, Lower Prices Possible Near Term

May crude oil was sharply lower overnight and appears to be breaking out to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

The pivot point for Monday is 50.44

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.89.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.45.

First support is the reaction low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

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Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

The pivot point, our line in the sand, for Monday is 864.25

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 11.40 points. at 855.40 as of 5:45 AM CST.

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The June Dollar was higher overnight and is trading above the reaction high crossing at 86.62 thereby renewing the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.85.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.62.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.33.

Crude Oil Weekly Pivot Points

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