Thursday, September 30, 2010

Phil Flynn: Exporting America!

A surprise drawdown in gasoline supply as the US becomes an exporter of more products as refiners sink deep into seasonal maintenance. Strong data out of China helped offset concerns about European sovereign debt. Add to it a weak dollar and you have created the right condition for an energy rally. Also of note China has now surpassed the United States as the biggest consumer of Saudi oil yet we may see some slowing as China takes steps to bring down exploding property prices.

Inventories seemed to be the major driving force for yesterday steady methodical rally. The EIA reported that motor gasoline inventories fell by a shocking 3.5 million barrels last week even as gasoline production increased to 9.2 million barrels a day and refinery runs scrapped the bottom at 85.8 %.It is clear that the US is exporting more gas and diesel as demand stagnates here and is robust in other places. The EIA shows that four moving average for gas demand is averaging 9.1 million barrels per day which is up just 0.9% from last year percent from the same period last year.

Yet gasoline supply fell as refiners look overseas. The US is now a net gasoline exporter for the first time since 1961. Reuters News reported today, “US oil refiners are shipping fuels to foreign markets to restore profits battered by sputtering domestic demand, signaling a historic shift in the global oil trade. Gasoline guzzling Americans have cut consumption while emerging markets including nearby Latin America have seen demand grow beyond the capacity of local refineries.....Read the entire article.



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Mid-Week Market Report on SP500, Crude Oil, Gold & Dollar

Wednesday the market didn’t tell us anything new. The equities market is still over extended on the daily chart but the market is refusing to break down. Each time there has been seen selling in the market over the past two weeks, the market recovers. Equities and the dollar have been trading with an inverse relationship and it seems to drop every in value each selling pressure enters the market, which naturally lifts stocks.

That being said, sellers are starting to come into the market at these elevated levels and it’s just a matter of time before we see a healthy pullback/correction. The past 10 session volatility has been creeping up as equities try to sell off. There will be a point when a falling dollar is not bullish for stocks but until then it looks like printing of money will continue devaluing of the dollar to help lift the stock market. Some type of pullback is needed if this trend is to continue and the markets can only be held up for so long.

Below is a chart of the USO oil fund and the SPY index fund. Crude has a tendency to provide an early warning sign for the strength of the economy. As you can see from the April top, oil started to decline well before the equities market did. This indicated a slow down was coming.

The recent equities rally which started in late August has been strong. But take a look at the price of oil. It has traded very flat during that time indicating the economy has not really picked up, nor does it indicate any growth in the coming months. This rally just may be coming to an end shortly.


This daily chart of the SP500 fund shows similar topping patterns. This looks to be the last straw for the SP500. Most tops occur with a gap higher or early morning rally reaching new highs, only to see a sharp sell off by the end of the session which generates a reversal day. From the looks of this chart that could happen any day.


In short, volume overall in the market remains light which is why we continue to see higher prices. Light volume typically gives the stock market a positive bias while Sell offs require strong volume to move lower. That being said every dip in the equities market which has been close to a breakdown seems to get lifted back up by a falling dollar, but that can only happen for so long because one the volume steps back into the market the masses will be in control again.

You can get my ETF and Commodity Trading Signals if you become a subscriber of my newsletter. These free reports will continue to come on a weekly basis; however, instead of covering 3-5 investments at a time, I’ll be covering only 1. Newsletter subscribers will be getting more analysis that’s actionable. I’ve also decided to add video analysis as it allows me to get more info across to you quicker and is more educational, and I’ll be covering more of the market to include currencies, bonds and sectors. Before everyone’s emails were answered personally, but now my focus is on building a strong group of traders and they will receive direct personal responses regarding trade ideas and analysis going forward. Due to more analysis and that I want to keep the service personal the price of the service will be going up Oct 1st, so join today.

Let the volatility and volume return!

Chris Vermeulen
The Gold And Oil Guy.Com
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, including gold's new high, and looks at where oil and gold may be headed tomorrow.



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Wednesday Evening Sept. 29th

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today. The indexes earlier this week hit fresh multi month highs. Bulls still have upside near term technical momentum. We are half way through the historically bearish period from September to October, and the stock indexes have so far performed very well. It is my bias that if this autumn were to see serious market turbulence, it would likely have occurred during September. I would not be surprised to see the stock indexes rally during October and then trade sideways and choppy into the end of the year.

Crude oil closed up $1.53 at $77.71 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today following a bullish weekly U.S. stocks report. Bulls have gained the near term technical advantage in crude. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $78.86 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 1.4 cents at $3.965 today. Prices closed near the session high today in quiet trading and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.298.

Gold futures closed up $3.20 at $1,311.60 today. Prices today closed near mid range today and scored another fresh record high. A weaker U.S. dollar and more safe haven buying interest boosted gold again today. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues to suggest a market top is close at hand in the gold market. Prices are in a two month old uptrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 23 points at 78.97 today. Prices closed near mid range today and hit another fresh eight month low. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 81.00.

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Musings: Marcellus Shale....Good News Critique

In the last issue of the Musings, we wrote about good news and bad news for the development of the Marcellus gas shale deposit extending across New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and eastern Ohio. This deposit with its multiple shales is considered to be potentially the largest gas deposit in the United States. It’s economics are challenging as the area is hilly, the road access is less than ideal, the land holdings are fractured and the public is not necessarily enamored with oil and gas drilling activities, especially hydraulic fracturing, which is key to the successful development of gas shale deposits. Low natural gas prices are potentially the biggest hurdle for Marcellus gas profitability.

Our article discussed the recently released 12 month natural gas production data for wells in the Pennsylvania portion of the Marcellus through June. The data showed average cumulative production for Marcellus horizontal wells in the 5 county core area of the North Central and Northeast part of Pennsylvania. The new data shows solid production results, and in fact, the average well’s production slightly exceeded the expected production suggested by Chesapeake Energy (CHK-NYSE) in a 2008 investor presentation. That chart was presented to show the company’s anticipated well economics for its foray into the region. Pennsylvania has a long history of oil and gas having been the cradle of the U.S. oil business with.....Read the entire article.


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Phil Flynn: Peak Oil Mirage

The closer we get to peak oil the further it goes away. As high prices collapsed when the global economic system fell apart the world is now awash in oil. Back around the beginning of this decade Fed Chairman Allan Greenspan warned that peak natural gas production in this country could put us in a competitive disadvantage.

Now it appears that some of the same ideas that took us from peak natural gas to an abundant supply could also change the supply outlook for oil. The Financial Times is reporting that, “A band of entrepreneurial oilmen have found an economic way to extract oil from shale rock, fuelling a frenzy for prospects that has pushed up lease prices and lifted hopes of the first rise in onshore US oil production in decades”.

The Times says, “These small independent oilmen had used hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling to triple estimates of US natural gas supplies and are now applying that same technology to get oil from shale rock”. The FT says that the method could add one million barrels of oil a day to US supplies in five to eight years replacing 10 percent of US crude imports. And that might just.....Read the entire article.

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Do You Really Understand How To Use Fibonacci Retracements

Do you know how to use the Fibonacci tool in your trading. I mean, do you REALLY know how to use it. We have had a number of requests to do a video on Fibonacci retracements and how they can be used in trading.

We put together this five minute lesson on Fibonacci trading and how we use this important tool to determine turning points in the market. Like all tools, it has its flaws and should be used with other complementary tools like our "Trade Triangle" technology.

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. We hope you have the time to comment and share if this video helped you understand this important trading tool, or how you're already using it.

We hope you enjoy this brief lesson and it helps you understand how to use this important tool.


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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning Sept. 28th

Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 76.16. November has stalled above the 20 day moving average this week as concerns over demand have helped to limit near term gains.

At the same time, stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.17
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86

Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning 76.28

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

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Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Crude Oil Rises After an Industry Report Shows Decline in U.S. Stockpiles

Crude oil advanced for the fifth time in six days in New York as an increase in Chinese manufacturing and a decline in U.S. supply bolstered speculation fuel demand in the world’s two biggest energy consumers will rise. Futures retraced yesterday’s 0.4 percent drop after a purchasing managers’ index showed manufacturing in China, the fastest growing major economy, accelerated for a second month. An Energy Department report today will probably show crude inventories in the U.S. fell last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

“There is still reasonable demand out there, and perhaps the sentiment toward economic optimism is still quite positive,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director of Commodity Broking Services Pty in Sydney. Crude for November delivery rose as much as 44 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $76.62 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $76.45 at 1:37 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, the contract decreased 34 cents to settle at $76.18, snapping a four day rally.

Futures are down 3.5 percent this year. For September, the contract has climbed 6.3 percent and is poised for a 1.1 percent gain for the third quarter. An index of China’s manufacturing released today by HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics rose to 52.9, the highest in five months, from 51.9 in August. The data are seasonally adjusted and readings above 50 indicate an expansion. China overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest energy user last year.....Read the entire article.



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Crude Oil's Time of the Year

The Fast Money guys and gal discuss the nature of the energy trade in October. Is it time for crude oil to rally?



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Stock Market and Commodities Commentary For Tuesday Evening Sept. 28th

The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today despite a weak consumer confidence index reading that sunk the U.S. dollar. The indexes this week have hit fresh multi month highs. Bulls still have upside near term technical momentum as the stock market continues to "climb a wall of worry." We are half way through the historically bearish period from September to October, and the stock indexes have so far performed very well. It is my bias that if this autumn were to see serious market turbulence, it would likely have occurred during September.

Crude oil closed down $0.41 at $76.11 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. The next near term upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $78.86 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 4.5 cents at $3.961 today. Prices closed near mid range again today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Prices have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at lower price levels.

Gold futures closed up $9.80 at $1,308.40 today. Prices today closed near the session high, scored another fresh record high and scored a big and bullish "outside day" up on the daily bar chart, whereby the high is higher and low is lower than the previous day's trading range, with a higher close. A weaker U.S. dollar and safe haven buying interest following some dour U.S. economic data today boosted gold. Gold bulls have the solid overall near term technical advantage and gained more power today.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 33 points at 79.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh eight month low. Prices also scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage.


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A Breakthrough Invention in the Oil and Gas Market?

From Keith Schaefer at "Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin"....

An oil and gas entrepreneur in the US has devised an inexpensive way to capture oil and natural gas vapors around a well site, and sell them to make money. These vapors are often flared (burned), or vented into the atmosphere, and trust me, if people really knew how much oil and gas was flared around the world every day, even in first world countries, the media outcry would make the "water fracking" issue look like a kindergarten party. In fact satellite images show intense flaring occurring, principally in third world countries. Shell has just committed $2 billion to reduce flaring from its operations in Nigeria.


“Air pollution requirements related to oil and gas production from the states are becoming increasingly restrictive,” says co-inventor Dr. Paul Trost. And Trost's solution can be profitable. He adds that a study near Denver in the hydrocarbon rich Denver Basin containing almost 8000 oil and gas wells showed the “fugitive” hydrocarbons, gases emanating from production tanks can be captured and sold at a profit rather than burned in a flare. Just like water evaporates in a dish, oil and gas evaporates from the production tank at a well site, and escapes into the atmosphere or alternately is burned (flared).

The problem becomes bigger when a combination of gas and oil are produced with the gas being injected into a pipeline having pressure. The oil then is also pressurized and the pressurized gases (like gas in a pop can) then “flash” or boil off like a shaken beer can. In certain areas these gases are captured and directed to a flare for burning rather than being allowed to vent to the atmosphere.

Trost’s invention, called the V3RU (Variable Volume Vapor Recovery Unit), is different than other vapor recovery systems in that it uses a flexible accumulator (bag) to capture the vapors. “It swells up like it is taking a deep breath,” says Trost. “The bag thus captures both the flash gas and also any contained liquids. We exhale it slowly into compressor for injection and sale to a pipeline. It’s a variable volume bag and it’s safety rated. The alternative energy industry already uses it around breweries located in or adjacent to cities.” Without a bag, Trost says oxygen can get at the vapour and then it won’t meet pipeline specifications. The gas is then useless and must be flared. Using a bag allows some back pressure to be used, so it won’t let air in, and the gas retains its purity and suitability for pipeline sale.

Trost says the payout for the V3RU increases as the oil content of the natural gas increases, and also as the oil gets lighter (has a higher API rating) and contains more condensate. Typically the V3RU will range in cost from $8,000-$30,000. He gives a real life example of a gas/condensate well in Colorado that was producing about 30 BOPD and 400 mcfd, but high pipeline pressures were causing a large amount of “flash” gas, containing both recoverable oil and gas, was being lost. Application of the V3RU will allow the operator was able to capture an additional 8-10 boe/d, resulting in roughly a 2 year payout.

The product has been used almost exclusively in the Denver Basin, Trost says, but it is now starting to be used in other areas. Trost is a board member of Nextraction Energy (NEX-TSXv), which will be using the V3RU vapor recovery system to meet air quality regulations at Nextraction’s newly discovered gas-condensate well located at the Pinedale Anticline play in Wyoming.

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Georgian President: No Problem Getting Oil Financing

Georgia President Mikhail Saakashvili says the country is having no difficulties getting financing for energy projects.




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Phil Flynn: Take No Quarter, Give No Quarter

Or at the very least beware of the end of the US fourth quarter. The quarter was a dream especially the month of September for stock market and precious metal bulls. Yet it seems as the quarter is coming to an end the markets with the most strength are running out of steam as funds and traders look to book profits as the markets failed to take out key resistance. For gold and all the talk about $1300.00 per once, the market never officially made it there and at the end of the quarter it seems that close is good enough. So unless we get some bearish news on the dollar it seems that 1300 an ounce won’t be hit at least until the next quarter. The stock market is rounding out a profit taking top as traders look to book profits from the best September since 1939.

Yes this is a September to remember but also remember that this is a profit taking business and it appears that unless the data gets us real excited the correction should start. The market in gold and stocks has been helped by the Fed. Ben Bernanke and his band of money printing merry men have engineered this latest gold and stock market rally. Now if only they can get it to trickle down to the oil market. Oil prices, while higher, are a bit less inclined to get excited about the recent stock market strength. With supply near record high and high stock prices not necessarily being reflected in real oil demand oil traders are less.....Read the entire article.

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FREE GOLD ALERT!

Short term traders should now be on the sidelines in gold as a daily Trade Triangle flashed an exit signal at $1,291.70. Long and intermediate term traders should continue to hold long positions in gold.

Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology






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Crude Oil Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning Sept. 28th

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If November extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 78.86 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58 would renew the decline off this month's low.


First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.17
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.86

Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 76.40

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 73.58
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 73.08

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

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Monday, September 27, 2010

Oil Tumbles as Moody's Downgrade Irish Bank Rating Intensified Worries About Economies in the Eurozone.

Volatility in oil trading increased as the US market opened. WTI crude oil for November delivery initially soared to as high as 77.17 after Trichet's comments on the Eurozone's outlook. Yet, gains were pared and price tumbled to 75.52 as Moody's downgrade of Anglo Irish Bank Corp's debt rating intensified worries about out peripheral economies in the Eurozone.

Crude oil ended the day flat at 76.52. Gold moved narrowly around 1300 as heightened sovereign concerns drove capitals to safe haven assets. Price settled at 1298.6, unchanged from last Friday's close. Profit taking was seen Asian session today.

ECB president Trichet acknowledged recent economic data has been 'better than expected' and said that the central bank expects 'the recovery to proceed at a moderate pace, with a positive underlying momentum but also with uncertainty surrounding the outlook'. The economy is 'out of the recession' but he and other members in the governing Council will remain cautious and prudent for this year and next.

Moreover, 'the rate of inflation could increase slightly in the short term but should remain moderate over the policy-relevant horizon. The comments were more upbeat than what the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said at a Princeton University conference last week. Bernanke said, despite stimulus measures, the US economy is only recovering at a slower pace than the central bank had expected. The Fed signaled.....Read the entire article.

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Kuwait Worried About OPEC Members' Output Quota Compliance

Kuwait's oil minister Monday said the country is worried about compliance with production quotas by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and will discuss the matter at the group's forthcoming meeting. Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Sabah also said the 12 member OPEC group is unlikely to change production quotas at the next meeting in Vienna, scheduled for Oct. 14, as current oil prices are "comfortable".

Al-Sabah told reporters he isn't concerned about global crude oil demand, but is worried about OPEC members conforming to production quotas, saying there have been "slippages here and there". "Compliance with their (OPEC) quotas is very important," said the Kuwaiti minister, who is scheduled to meet his Indian counterpart during his three day visit to India.

Al-Sabah's comments come as some member states produce far more than the amount allotted to them under OPEC's production quota system. Higher production by any member could lead to oversupply in the market and hurt global prices. Last week, the oil minister of Angola, an OPEC member, said the country is still producing 1.9 million barrels a day of oil, according to the Angola Press news agency. The southern African nation says its quota is 1.656 million barrels a day, but data from OPEC's general secretariat show Angola's allocation is 1.517 million barrels a day.....Read the entire article.

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Crude Oil Declines as Dollar Rises, Forecasts of U.S. Stockpile Increase

Crude oil fell in New York, snapping four days of gains, as the dollar strengthened against the euro and analysts forecast an increase in U.S. gasoline supplies, signaling demand recovery in the largest crude user may falter. Futures slipped as U.S. equities dropped and the euro weakened from a five month high against the dollar after renewed signs of debt problems at European banks and countries such as Ireland and Portugal. An U.S. Energy Department report tomorrow may show gasoline stockpiles climbed to the highest level in six months.

“We really haven’t made any headway into stockpiles,” said Ben Westmore, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Activity hasn’t improved. The crude market followed equity markets overnight.” The November contract lost as much as 40 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $76.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $76.26 at 10:54 a.m. Singapore time. Yesterday it added 3 cents to settle at $76.52. Prices are down 4 percent this year.

The dollar traded at $1.3428 per euro after rising 0.3 percent yesterday. A stronger U.S. currency limits investor need for assets to hedge against inflation. Brent crude oil for November delivery declined as much as 42 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $78.15 on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Yesterday it fell 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $78.57. November Brent’s premium to the corresponding West Texas future in New York narrowed to $1.96 a barrel today, down from $3.45 a week earlier.....Read The Entire Article.


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Where is Crude Oil and Gold Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Matt Nesto discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil and gold are likely headed tomorrow.



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