Knowing Your Oil Companies Pays Off Big in These Geopolitical Events

Everyday, day in and day out we push the importance of the fundamentals, the numbers. But this weeks events reminds us that doing your home work and knowing where big oil companies and oil services companies are invested pays off big. Where does their risk lie? Today Dan Dicker from The Street .Com gives us some ideas on who is at risk and how he is trading the Egypt unrest. One company he mentions is Apache who does a large percentage of their business in Egypt. Just click here to get a free trend analysis for Apache.



Here is your pivot, support and resistance numbers for Tuesday......

Crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last Friday's low. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the rally off last Friday's low, January's high crossing at 93.46 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 89.05 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 92.84. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 93.46. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 89.05. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 91.14.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.501 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.482. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.501. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.252. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225. Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.390.

Gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1359.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1341.00. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1359.10. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1309.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40. Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1335.10.

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All The Signs are There.....You Can't Ignore Distribution Selling

Here is part 2, the follow up to Chris Vermeulen's "Gold, Silver, and the Dollar....How Does Their Future Look?" article from a couple of weeks ago......

We have seen some exciting moves in the market and with the market sentiment so bullish it should make for a sharp selloff in the coming weeks. Meaning everyone is overly bullish and owns a lot of stocks and commodities therefore the market should top and leave them holding the bag while the smart money runs for the door. The market will not bottom until all of these individuals holding the bag finally cannot take the pain of losing any more money and once we see them panic and sell them all at once only then will we be looking to go long again.

The past couple weeks I have been bombarded with emails asking if gold and silver have bottomed and if they should be buying more on these pullbacks. Those of you reading my work for the past few months know that my analysis clearly has shown how both gold and silver have been topping out. There have been strong distribution selling and price patterns on the charts are also clearly signaling a top was near.

A couple weeks ago I posted an important report covering gold, silver and the US Dollar and where the next big moves will be. Well it’s time for another update on Gold, Silver and the Dollar as they have come a long way from my last report.

Ok let’s move on to today’s charts…

Silver Daily Chart
Silver has formed a very nice looking top and it is now trading under its key moving averages. It is also currently testing a key resistance level after Friday’s bounce on the back of fears in Egypt. Unless something happens internationally I figure silver sill continue its trend down.

Gold Daily Chart
Gold futures are doing the same as its little sister (silver). I feel the general public is still very bullish on metals and before we see higher prices (new highs) the market will have to shake the majority out of their positions first. At this time gold looks like it should test the $1285 level. Depending on how long it takes to get there and the price action it forms in the following days that outlook could change but expect sellers to step in at the $1350-1355 area.

US Dollar 2 Hour Chart
The dollar has been grinding lower the past two weeks forming a falling wedge reversal pattern. It’s also important to note that on the daily chart the dollar tested a key support level last week. This should be an interesting week for the dollar and the rest of the market simple simply because when the dollar makes sharp movements it pushes the price of stocks and commodities around in a big way.

I am looking for a multi week rally in the dollar possibly longer but with small pauses or corrections along the way.

Pre-Week Metals and Dollar Trend Analysis:
In short, I feel gold and silver are nearing a short term resistance level and will find selling pressure in the coming days only to continue on their journey down for a few weeks. The dollar on the other hand broke out of its falling wedge on Friday and could have a strong rally for 2-3 days. I feel most traders and investors have been shorting the dollar for two weeks straight, so once they realize it’s going higher there will be a ton of short covering and the dollar should rip higher.

This shift in the Dollar from down to up has a direct effect on the SP500 and subscribers of my newsletter are going to take full advantage of these next big moves in the market. Just Click Here if you would like to get my daily newsletter and trading analysis and trade exactly what I am trading.

Chris Vermeulen



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Let Them Eat Cake....That Might Be Tough With These Wheat Prices

After an initial pull back crude oil gained some strength overnight as investors seem to consider the Egypt unrest as little threat to the flow of oil through the Suez canal. It is great to play the threat of disruption in our trades but there is little proof that oil and energy is ever effected by these tense situations.

Still, many hedge funds and commercial traders got stuck on the wrong side of the trade last week as the Egypt fiasco unfolded right as many fund managers were peeling back their long crude positions. But maybe the trade we should be talking about is wheat. Wheat is the cause of the tension in Egypt as the population faces food shortages and other governments around the globe are increasing their wheat and rice inventory. Jordan bought 150,000 metric tons of wheat last Thursday and is in the market for more. And Libya did the same, buying 100,000 metric tons of wheat. Many companies in the middle east are selling gold reserves just to fund these massive purchases of wheat and rice.

Have we missed this trade and is a short on wheat in order? Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a double top with last August's high might be forming. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 8.03 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. With everything else that has gone on in wheat in the past year it would take a lot of nerve to sit on a short position in wheat at this point. This may only be the beginning.

Here's your pivot point, support and resistance numbers for Monday morning......

Crude oil was slightly lower overnight before gaining some strength as it consolidates some of last Friday's rally. However, stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.12 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 83.06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.12. Second resistance is this month's high crossing at 93.46. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 83.06. Crude oil pivot point for Monday morning is 88.06.

Natural gas was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.506 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.492. Second resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.506. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 4.252. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225. Natural gas pivot point for Monday morning is 4.315.

Gold was lower overnight and remains poised to extend this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1363.20 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If February extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1343.7. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1363.20. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1309.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40. Gold pivot point for Monday morning is 1332.70.

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How to Trade Last Weeks Market Panic in the S&P 500 & Gold Futures

From guest analyst J.W. Jones of Options Trading Signals.Com.......

After taking a quiet ride upward for some time, the markets finally reminded us what it can do in a flash as precious metals and crude oil have been selling off while the U.S. Dollar Index futures were consolidating. Additionally, the volatility index has been very choppy and was indicating that we could be seeing a potential change in the underlying trend with regards to future price action. In previous articles that I have proffered, I was warning about a likely correction in gold and equities as prices were extremely overbought and both asset classes were due for pullbacks.

Precious metals have been selling off for much of the month of January while equities worked their way higher as technology stocks continued to outperform. Last week we saw major selling in equities while gold, oil futures, and Dollar Index futures rally. What is Mr. Market trying to tell us? Why are the U.S. Dollar Index futures rallying with gold and oil simultaneously? However, the most important question that most traders want an answer to is whether this is a top in equities or if we are just going to have a mild correction and power higher?

Risk is excruciatingly high and Friday’s price action appears to be extremely emotional. I am watching to see if we get the Friday afternoon grind higher in equities that generally is accompanied by light volume. If equity prices are held down today, we may see lower prices in the not-so-distant future. The daily chart of the S&P 500 E-Mini futures contract listed below illustrates the key price levels that traders are likely watching closely:

I remain neutral at this point on stocks as I want to see how the market digests today’s prices before taking a serious position. With short term prices at the current oversold levels, I am expecting a light volume drift higher before Mr. Market tells us which direction he may be headed in the longer term time frame. For right now, I will continue to remain in cash and will wait patiently for low risk, high probability setups to emerge.

Gold
Gold futures suffered from a relatively serious pullback in the month of January. At the close on Thursday, gold was trading around $1,315 per troy ounce. As of the writing of this article gold was trading over 15 points higher on Friday and panic buying was taking place. Gold was extremely oversold on the short to intermediate time frame so a relief rally was expected. However, gold rallying 15 points in the face of an increase in the Dollar Futures on Friday is rather perplexing. The U.S. Dollar Index futures are illustrated below:

There have been times when both gold and the dollar have rallied together in the past, however at this point it is too early to determine what the market is trying to tell us. On one hand, it is obvious that gold needed to bounce to work off oversold conditions. On the other hand, it is rather odd that gold and the U.S. Dollar Index futures are rallying together. My best guess is that traders are trying to game where future money flows are going to be placed if selling persists in the future. It is hard to say for sure if gold will roll over or if this rally is trying to tell us something else.

Currently it is too early to tell, so I will continue to sit on the sidelines and watch the price action. I do not have an edge and the whippy price action in gold futures recently has not offered a solid risk / reward setup. Longer term I expect gold prices to work higher, but in the interim I am unsure of price direction and if selling pressure sets in, how low prices might go. Key support levels in gold futures would be around the 1270-1280 range based on the gold futures chart illustrated below:

For right now, I expect that gold prices could drift higher but the decline may or may not be over. There are extraneous events that could trigger another powerful rally in gold, particularly if panic selling in equities continues and/or an unforeseen event occurs in Europe or the Middle East. I do not currently have a position in gold futures or GLD, but I will be watching the price action closely awaiting a possible trade entry. I will likely look to get long GLD at some point in the future as I expect another rally to transpire in coming months that might push gold to new highs. It is too early to tell what price action is going to do, but for right now I’m going to sit in cash and wait for a solid low risk, high probability setup.

Conclusion
Right now I am sitting in cash and will likely remain that way until we get further confirmation in both the S&P 500 and the gold futures market. It remains to be seen if this is the beginning of a new trend or a possible topping formation in the S&P 500, but what is known for sure is that we have seen heavy volume distribution set in on Friday and panic selling levels have been reached. The marketplace is charged with emotion and the VIX is up more than 20%. This type of environment is not conducive to my style of trading, so I will sit on the sidelines in cash and wait for an entry to take shape.

Gold is also at a rather tricky point on its chart as we have seen a significant rally so far today, but it remains to be seen whether this is the beginning of another powerful rally or whether we are just working off the oversold condition. Sometimes it pays to be patient as a trader and wait for setups which offer a high probability of success while risk levels are mitigated. Right now I’m going to go into this weekend entirely in cash with a smile on my face.

Next week however could offer some interesting trading setups on the S&P 500 and gold futures. Should a quality setup arrive, I will most certainly accept risk and put my trading capital to work. I hate losing trading capital, and price action today is far too emotional to get me involved. I would rather enter positions when the crowd is either sleeping or looking the other direction than invest my hard earned trading capital with them. You can call me a contrarian, but please do not make me hang out with the crowd!

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Crude Oil Trades Flat as U.S. GDP Numbers Take Center Stage

If you put your ear to the street it seems every one is expecting Fridays GDP report to show that the U.S. probably grew at a faster pace in the fourth quarter of 2011 on the biggest gains in consumer spending in four years and rising exports. So why has crude oil only stabilized overnight as traders look to the U.S. GDP report today to give them guidance? Are the fundamentals in crude oil that weak?

The threat of further tightening in China and the possible reigning in of QE 2 in the first half of 2011 is starting to "loom large" in trader chatter on the street. But maybe, just maybe it's OPEC to the rescue. Farouk al-Zanki, the head of Kuwait Petroleum Corp, told Reuters at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he was concerned high oil prices might contribute to the start of another global downturn as they did in 2008. "The first signs are emerging that OPEC is responding, with a thinly veiled call for an emergency OPEC meeting by a Kuwaiti official and indications others are unilaterally raising output," JPMorgan analysts led by Lawrence Eagles said.

Crude oil rebounded to 85.9 after plunging to as low as 85.11 on Thursday. Heating oil and gasoline prices also stabilized while natural gas fell for a second day even though inventories in the U.S. took a dip. Gold got some support above 1300, near the critical 1296.40 level, but most traders maintain a near term bearish outlook and a further decline in gold prices.

It's Friday and here is your pivot, resistance and support numbers for crude oil, natural gas and gold. And rise or fall we'll be on the sidelines well before the close.....

Crude oil was slightly higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 83.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.08 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 88.82. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.08. First support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 83.06. Crude oil pivot point for Friday morning is 86.17.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.513 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.492. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.823. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.272. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 4.225. Natural gas pivot point for Friday morning is 4.376.

Gold was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1366.50 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1344.20. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1366.50. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1309.10. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40. Gold pivot point for Friday morning is 1325.20.


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Market Manipulation.....Our Video Analysis and How You Can profit From It!

This week the market just happened to gap above key resistance level and we all know that once we are above resistance becomes support. After the gap up the SP500 pulled back to this new support level which happens to be Friday’s, Mondays and Yesterdays high then it bounced, actually rallied up on solid volume almost like someone was making a point that this market is going up today and not to mess with it.....

Personally we don’t get worked up over market manipulation because of two reasons:

1. There is Nothing you can do about it
2. If you see it and understand the idea behind it, then you can make really good money day trading it.

So let's watch our latest video, Just click here to watch "Market Manipulation.....Our Video analysis and How You Can profit From It!"


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The Real Reason For Gold's $100 Pull Back

So all of the talking heads and pundits are coming out with their own reasons for gold taking a big fall. And if we look at history we would think that all of the credit woes of Europe have magically disappeared. Or China has found the cure for it's inflation problems. But no, none of the above has happened, but gold has still plummeted $100.

It's all about market perception and timing, two things we've talked about many times before on the Trader's Blog. I don't know about you, but I remember when gold was over $1,400 an ounce and all I could see on TV where ads from gold companies extolling the virtues of buying gold as it is real money. Since the fall, I expect we'll see fewer of these advertisements on TV and in print. So what did happen to gold?

Well, for starters there were some key technical levels broken. If you're a gold trader, but not a technical trader, you really need to learn how to read charts and see what other traders are doing. A good way to understand that is by taking advantage of our free technical trading course from MarketClub....Just Click Here to get those 10 free lessons.

Secondly, there did not appear to be any other news to drive this market higher. When that happens, markets tend to fall under their own weight, and as many retail investors purchased gold, there was nobody on the other side of the market to support gold.

So the question is, is the move over in gold? That's a tricky one. I want to show you in today's video exactly how we're looking at this very emotional market. Every time we have created a video indicating that there would be some pullback in gold, we were bombarded by the gold bugs saying that we're crazy. When you see a market pullback as much as gold has, you have to have some respect for the market itself.

If we look at the price of gold today at approximately $1,330, it pretty much equates to what happened in the last 30 years when gold was trading at a high of $850 an ounce. If you factor in inflation over the last 30 years, gold is probably lower now than it was 30 years ago. So how good an investment is gold? I think gold is more of a barometer of fear than anything else. Clearly there are other investments in the marketplace that have better returns.

Let's get back to gold and what we think will happen. In this short video we analyze the market using our "Trade Triangles", the Williams%R, and the MACD indicator.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you like what you see please comment on our blog and feel free to Tweet or email your friends. I think there's an important takeaway message in this video, what goes up, must come down. Enjoy the video.

Watch "The Real Reason For Gold's $100 Pull Back"

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India Interest Rates, UK and Spain News Weighing on Crude Oil Bulls

I know we are guilty from time to time of making it sound like it's all about China. But let's not forget Chinas partner in massive growth, India. And this week it looks like the U.S. consumer seems to be getting a bit of help from a rate increase in India that is weighing on the commodity bulls. And India's central bank warns that inflation risks will remain a problem for some time.

And from across the pond contributed to the pull back with worse than expected GDP data out of the United Kingdom and renewed worries popping up in Spain's bond market. A plan supported by their finance minster does not seem to be convincing investors that Spain can get a handle on their financial woes. All of this appears to be weighing investors and crude oil and commodity prices.

And this just supports our continued predictions for a mid January pull back. And if you look at recent years the facts support our theory. In seven of the past 10 years imports expanded during January. And the street agreed on Tuesday taking March oil futures down $1.68 to $86.19 a barrel, the lowest settlement price since Nov. 30.

But the long oil crowd seems to be holding it's ground as many commercial traders are feeling that it will take a downside break in crude oil of 80.06 support to be the first sign of medium term reversal and break of 64.23 to confirm it. Otherwise a good majority of these traders outlook will remain bullish. This same "bull camp" see a further rise could still be in the cards all the way to the 61.8% retracement at 103.70 and possibly above.

But we are trading today and it appears crude oil is still rolling over. Here is your pivot, support and resistance numbers for Wednesday morning......

Crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.61 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.61. Second resistance is this year's high crossing at 93.46. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 86.12. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51. Crude oil pivot point for Wednesday morning is 86.72.

Natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.494. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.494 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 5.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.823. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 5.025. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.494. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 4.302. Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday morning is 4.494.

Gold was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1376.10 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1358.70. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1376.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1323.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40. Gold pivot point for Wednesday morning is 1330.70.


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It's Not All About The U.S. Dollar......Here is Some Other Ways to Make Money in the Forex Market

In today's short video from MarketClubs Adam Hewsion he brings up the question of why the dollar is so focused on by traders in the Forex markets. Is it because of it's being considered the strongest currency in the world?

Sadly, the main reason is its declining value against the other major currencies. There are several ways to look at the foreign exchange markets and one of them is to compare other major currencies. For example, you could be looking at the euro against the Japanese yen or any number of combinations in between.

In today's video we will be looking at the Swiss franc versus the Japanese yen over the past 12 months. I'm going to be showing you a very simple, yet very effective, approach that has proven to be 72% accurate in 2010-2011 when trading this particular cross rate.

In fact, using this easy to understand approach, you would have made just seven trades in approximately 12 months. As you can see, this is not a hyperactive approach. However, it will put the odds of making money on your side if you stick to the game plan. As in all trading, having a game plan in foreign exchange is extremely important.

If after watching this video you would like to know more about our trading system and the indicators we use just take us up on our FREE two week trial of MarketClub.

We hope you find this video informative and educational. As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. All we ask is that you let us know what you think by leaving a comment, talk about us on your blog, Tweet to a friend or share us on Facebook.


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Inflation Woes Take Center Stage in the Commodity Futures Trade

It's not a matter of if inflation woes will hit us in the U.S. but when. The old cliche that the current QE and QE2 money printing programs will be on the backs of our great children is just a myth. The sad results will be painfully laid upon the American people whenever the communist regime in China says it will be. And some very smart people think it's coming sooner then we think.

With the Chinese slowly allowing the Yuan to inflate it is obvious they know it's currency has to eventually be allowed to increase in value. And it won't be our great grand children who will feel that, it will be us. Few Americans seem to understand that all of our Quantitative Easing will then be felt by every one of us when we fill our gas tanks or pass through the grocery store check out line. That is where you will be expected to pay your share of all of this money being printed in Washington. And our "friends" in China will decide exactly when and how that will happen.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal ahead of this week's annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, even Jean-Claude Trichet warned that inflation pressures in the euro zone must be watched closely, and urged central bankers everywhere to ensure that higher energy and food prices don't gain a foothold in the global economy.

Sure, markets don't move in a straight line. We will have many pull backs and corrections in commodity prices. But don't think for a second that the long term trend in commodities is any thing but up. So lets pay for them higher food prices in the future by making money today. And here is the pivot, resistance and support numbers we'll be using for todays trading.....

Crude oil was lower overnight as it extends last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If March extends this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.91 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 90.91. Second resistance is this year's high crossing at 93.46. First support is the overnight low crossing at 86.33. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the May-January rally crossing at 85.51. Crude oil pivot point for Tuesday morning is 88.26.

Natural gas was lower overnight following Monday's key reversal down following a test of the 50% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 4.802. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.488 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 5.025 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 4.823. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-October decline crossing at 5.025. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.553. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.488. Natural gas pivot point for Tuesday morning is 4.465.

Gold was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If February extends this month's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1377.40 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1361.30. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1377.40. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1321.90. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing at 1296.40. Gold pivot point for Tuesday morning is 1342.90.


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